Trade Review: Napalm and Donkey

Donkey receives:

SP Alfredo Simon CIN

14^th rounder

15^th rounder

S. Napalm receives:

SP Jered Weaver LAA

23^rd rounder

24^th rounder

Gibby is a bit of a wild card when it comes to trades. Sometimes I wonder what he’s thinking, but I know its always based off some sound thought process. This one had me scratching my head a bit. Lets get to the facts: (1) There is no doubt that this makes his team better for 2014, (2) Chris doesn’t make deals just for the sake of making deals; he’s patient and willing to hold out for more value, (3) the 14^th and 15^th rounds are the two highest picks you are allowed to trade until two weeks before the trade deadline, (4) 18 rounds is a shitload of upgrade, (5) Jered Weaver was once a stud, (6) Jered Weaver is no longer a stud; he is a perfectly serviceable #3-4 starter, (7) Jered Weaver might be in for some notable regression.

The line on Weaver so far is quite good with a 66 Ks, 3.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9 QS (75%). However, there’s underlying numbers to worry about – 4.24 FIP (essentially ERA without fielding factors included), 4.39 xFIP (FIP with ballpark factors considered), 4.29 SIERA (ERA estimate using K, BB, GB rates). There’s also the issue of a .246 BABIP (opponent batting average on balls in play), which is 17^th lowest in the league. Generally, a .300 BABIP is the line in which you determine whether one has been lucky or unlucky. In this case, he has been lucky, though not as much as it may seem because his career BABIP has been low at .270 and has ranged from .241–.268 the past three years. The Ks haven’t been there since 2010 and his current rate of 7.0 per nine is about where he’s been the past three years. Meanwhile, his 2.9 BB/9 is the highest rate of his career.

One could make a case for Chris benefiting further by the inclusion of Simon, but you’d be wrong. Surface stats may look good, but he’ll be returning back to Earth (and likely the bullpen) soon. Still, not a worthless piece to get in return.

When it comes down to it, Gibby makes his staff deeper by slotting Weaver in after Darvish and Strasburg. He also improves a roster structure short coming by getting someone who has been good at producing QSs, a category that can be difficult to win with five relievers and only seven starters. The question is price and while proven quality starters come at a hefty price (see Dave’s trade for Ryu), Gibby loses two of the biggest bargaining chips he has until August in his 14^th and 15^th rounders and I’m thinking the price should’ve been more like 10-12 rounds.