Thursday, August 20, 2015

Trade Review Part III



One Nut receives:
Kendrys Morales KC - 1B
17th rounder

Cowhide receives:
OF Josh Hamilton TEX – OF
16th rounder

This is the kind of trade that makes other contending teams cringe. Morales hasn’t helped much since he was acquired, but Hamilton is on the DL and really wasn’t all that great as it was, so Jason would’ve dropped him for someone off the wire eventually. Giving up one round is essentially the equivalent of picking someone up off the wire, except that person happens to be fifth in the league in RBIs. Morales could be a real difference maker if he continues his quiet production and could effectively slowly kill another contender in the playoffs without them ever realizing it. For Dave, well, screw that guy.

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MET receives:
Wilson Ramos Was - C
Round 16

Angry Pirates receives:
Yan Gomes Cle - C
Round 20

Really don’t see how Yan is worth four rounds. He was a great find last year and is better than his 25/8/31/0/.268 line he has posted in an injury-riddle season, but so is Ramos, whose 31/9/49/0/.264 line makes it look like there really didn’t need to be much of an exchange of picks here. Ramos has almost 100 more abs and Gomes as been better lately, so I guess there’s that. But I just don’t see why Gomes is worth four pretty crucial rounds (all but three players drafted in the 20th were dropped from their original team this year – Sano, Volquez, Segura). Two rounds? Sure, I guess. I still like JT Realmuto and Miguel Montero better than both Ramos and Gomes, and they’re just chilling out there on the wire free of charge. For someone with  a draft board with as many holes as Kyle does, this didn’t really help.
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Prestige receives:
Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B

One Nut receives:
Edwin Encarnación Tor - 1B

This deadline has brought about a wide range of trades and this is no different – a rare one-for-one swap of keepers with no picks involved! In this case, the deal makes sense for both teams and I really don’t have an issue with either side. What Freeman lacks in supporting cast and power he makes up for in youth and improving skills. He’ll get to 100/30/100/.380 in the near future, while EE makes Jason’s already stellar team even better as he joins the roster in the midst of one of his patent hot streaks. His numbers aren’t far away from Bautista’s despite the up and down season. So with EE, Morales, Ellsbury, and Maybin, Jason’s offense is as diverse and potent as his pitching staff and well-positioned to take on Angry and Montezuma’s in the fight to the finish line. The beauty of Jason is every year we talk about the picks he gives up and every year we talk about his playoff push.
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Ring receives:
Francisco Liriano Pit - P
Round 22
Round 23

One Nut receives:
Round 12
Round 17

Now, this move I like for Jason.  Sixteen rounds is a nice boost in draft picks that helps negate some of the losses from the MadBum deal. That said, I don’t know how he does this as often as he does. No one in the league is more willing to deal a high quality player if he believes he’s getting enough value – even when he’s contending. It’s risky though. Liriano has gone on stretches of dominance that could really boost a team going against some potent opponents. Jason’s strength has been his rotation and he added Bumgarner to the Arrieta/Archer/Cueto monster, but it forces him to potentially rely on Derek Holland and/or Drew Smyly coming off the DL.  Then there’s guys like Karns, Buehrle, and Hammel who don’t have stellar track records, while Jaime Garcia has pitched like an ace, but the injury history makes it a little more risky. I couldn’t do it, but Jason has proven to be much less risk-averse than anyone in the league.

Dagan may have paid a little more than market value here because he was dealing with a fellow contender, but at this point there were few top pitching options available and Liriano (154/3.35/1.13/16) immediately becomes his best pitcher.  He’s not your typical ace, but Richards, Odorizzi, Nova, and Iwakuma offer a potentially very good veteran group to go with young guns Heaney, Jungman, and ERod. I don’t know if he makes the difference, but he certainly elevates the potential for a good enough week to make it through a round of the playoffs. Overall though, Dagan really needed a bit more to balance his staff with his stellar offense. This may have been too little too late.
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Prestige receives:
Devon Travis Tor - 2B DL
A.J. Ramos Mia - P
Erasmo Ramírez TB - P
Matt Shoemaker LAA - P NA
Round 7
Round 15

Montezumas receives:
David Ortiz Bos - 1B
Trevor Rosenthal StL - P
Cole Hamels Tex - P
Gio González Was - P
Round 21
Round 22

As the week dragged on and it became abundantly clear my top-seeded 2014 team was going to lose to an 8 seed in the first round – ending the once promising dream of my first H&T championship, I started to question some of my moves heading into the playoffs. I thought I had been aggressively smart. Turns out, I was stupid. I had opportunities to deal with Dagan for the likes of Arrieta, Shields, Kemp, and Bailey, but I hemmed and hawed and nit-picked and tried to save a couple rounds here and there. I let it linger long enough for Jason to swoop in and blow me out of the water with 35 rounds for all four – a seemingly nutso offer that I chided and mocked. All while Jason rode off into the sunset with his third H&T championship and I sat home holding my junk and clinging to the all-time highest regular season winning-percentage.

The lessons of that open trading period were not lost on me as we entered the 2015 open trading period. Though it pained me to see the glaring holes appear in my draft board and still liked a lot of the guys I traded away, I didn’t want to regret not making a bold move. Hamels is still a stud even if his era is a little inflated compared to past years. He’s consistently at 200 ip and 200 k with a great whip. His 162 game average for his career is 223 ip with 213 k and a 3.31/1.15, with surprisingly little fluctuation and only minor injury history. Texas in the summer is a little different than the NL east, but still a worthwhile add who is vast improvement to my staff. Rosenthal is a highend RP thanks to his team’s contending status, while Papi has turned around his season and is the 4th overall rated player in Yahoo over the past 30 days with a crazy 21/10/30/.440 line in 98 abs. He sends a struggling Joc to my bench most days. Gio is not the Gio of old, but he’s still a pretty good Gio and bring high upside potential to each start. That 1.44 whip is no good and potential for BB-filled blowups, along with Salazar and TRoss, make for potential disaster. But the WHIP is well above recent year totals of 1.13, 1.25, and 1.20 since 2012, so perhaps he’s due for a correction. Kudos to Lars for making a couple moves before the deadline to help out for next year

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Cowhide receives:
Odubel Herrera Phi - 2B,SS,OF
Henry Owens Bos - P
Round 10
Round 14

Angry Pirates receives:
Dexter Fowler ChC - OF
Michael Pineda NYY - P DL
Round 22
Round 24

As much as I like and respect Kyle (especially since I’m sitting behind him in the standings), I am wondering about some of the moves to improve his team. David Price I understand obviously, but there’s some pretty meaningful question marks with the rest of the guys he acquired – like whether ARod can continue to stay healthy and productive, whether Jimmy Nelson is really making the next leap to third tier starter, is Yan Gomes any better than Wilson Ramos? The main question with this trade is whether Fowler and Pineda are worth 22 rounds. I’d say the answer is pretty clearly no. QS is a big thing for a reliable starter and Pineda has only converted 10 of his 19 starts to QS, namely because he can’t last six innings, which is funny because he doesn’t walk many and has a very nice 1.22 whip. The problem is he gets into problems. Without watching his starts, his 3.97 era, low whip, and inability to get to 6 innings suggests he’s prone to bad innings. His xFIP is actually stellar at 2.79, which, at a full run (and then some) lower than his era, implicates a sever lack of luck. The BABIP of .338 confirms the lack of luck, as it is a nearly 60 points off his career BABIP of .280. And the 23.9 K% and 3.1 BB% is also excellent. He’s a good pitcher. He could potentially be great. But there’s something about him that seems to be holding him back… Ahh, there it is:  the one season he pitched more than 170 innings (including minors) was the season before he ripped apart his shoulder. He missed all of 2012, only pitched 40 innings in 2013, then strained another shoulder muscle in 2014. This year, he started off great before heading to the DL with a forearm strain in the end of July. If we like Fowler (79/13/35/17/.348) but know there was little competition for his services given the glut of offensive options available in trade, exactly what portion of that 22 rounds was Pineda? He’s making a rehab start this week and he may be pretty good upon his return, but he wasn’t that good before he was injured and he simply cannot be kept due to the ongoing health issues. Perhaps this is just indicative of the market for quality SPs, but I just don’t think he is worth the number of rounds – specifically, not one of the restricted picks. Kyle traded 55 rounds during the open trading period and only has two picks in the first 9 rounds of the draft next year. He’s in the driver seat for the regular season title. I just wonder if those rounds could’ve been utilized better.

Dave, meanwhile, made off like a bandit and effectively sold off his roster in impressive fashion – even better than Gibby actually. Dave has no picks after Round 16 and has double picks in every one of the first nine rounds except the third and sixth, including two firsts and two seconds. Masterful work. With a good group of keepers including Altuve, Posey, Wacha, and Xander, Dave just needs a couple good keepers with some power and he will be set to compete in 2016.

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