Wednesday, March 25, 2009

2009 Draft Review

Our in-house writer, Adam Leech, has been kind enough to compile his annual draft review for our reading pleasure. I may not agree with all of his opinions, but it sure is fun to read. I felt it was necessary to close it all out with a little dance from Gisele. Enjoy.

FYI Kyle – I do this every year. Nothing personal. I’m just a know it all who spends way too much time researching. And I’m a writer. This is what I do.


Round 1

Best: OF CGranderson, Lincecum on some Ts (LOT). This may have been obvious because it was the first choice, but getting power/speed combo like that was a great move.
Runner: 1B CPena, Beach Bums (BB). Not as obvious because most rankings bury him due to AVG. But in an OBP league, he’s gold. Nice move Troy
Worst: SP YGallardo, Keep on Sucking (KOS). I really want to hand this to Casten, but this move makes no sense to me. Sure, he MIGHT be good. But he hasn’t done anything to deserve a pick this high. ESPECIALLY over Billingsley and Shields.
Runner: C MWieters, Grumpy Munchkins (GM). Casten bought into the hype big time. I read enough of it that I am pretty convince he is special. But, he could have been had in the fourth. Now you have to wait until June and carry two catchers. Not worth it.

Round 2

Best: SP JShields, Donkey Punchers (DP). A young and very underrated pitcher, who helps in every pitching category outside saves. And he’s getting better. Other owners went for youngins without a track record in the first. Shield is safe and smart.
Runner: OF MOrdonez, KOS. Pierce made up for his first round pick by snatching up Magglio who dropped a lot farther than most thought he would. Shout out to Dave on the Tulo pick too.
Worst: 2B RCano, LOT. Sixteen rounds later, you could’ve had Kelly Johnson, who may not be a flashy name in a big city, but I bet you dollars to donuts (mmm... donuts) that KJ outproduces Cano.
Runner: RP JNathan, Moose is Loose (MIL). Nothing against Nathan, but it’s too early for closers in my opinion. They’re pretty easy and cheap on the trade market mid-year.

Round 3

Best: OF RIbanez, Angry Pirates (AP). Exciting as dirt but solid in R, HR, RBI and OBP. Expect even better in Philly.
Runner: SP JVazquez, GM. Bad ERA last year should be improved in ATL with another 200 Ks. Smart pick at this point in the draft.
Worst: SP CZambrano, Prestige Worldwide (PW). Lars made up for the pick by stealing some good SPs later in the draft. But this just didn’t make any sense to me. While his ERA balloons, his Ks have gone down. Give me Greinke, Wainright, or Lars’s 13th rounder, Josh Johnson.
Runner: 3B MDeRosa, BB. I don’t have a real problem with this pick, but it was early. His position flexibility makes him extra valuable.

Round 4

Best: SP ZGrienke, GM, and SP MCain, Montezuma’s Revenge (MR). Neither are likely to win many games, but 12 wins, 180 ks, sub 3.70 era and a 1.20 whip are nice gets here.
Runner: SS JPeralta, Ringo Fire (ROF). After this, the SS position drops in quality pretty drastically (after Jeter and JJ later this round, RTheriot is next 14 rounds later) and he’s good.
Worst: OF NCruz, Paper Champs (PC). Don’t see the need to take him here. He’s not proven anything yet and he’ll only stay in the clean up spot if he proves he is worth it. There were less risky players available and he’d probably be around for you in the 12th.
Runner: 3B AGordon, LOT. It’s not too much of stretch in this round, but I just don’t like the rankings LOT was operating under. Better than Chipper, Beltre, Encarnacion and Reynolds? No way. Even if he does out-produce them, it doesn’t make sense here.

Round 5

Best: 3B CJones, ROF. There is no way this guy should’ve dropped this far. Speaking from experience, his injuries are a pain in the but. But he produces on a level on par with any 3B outside New York when he’s in.
Runner: SP AWainright, DP. Solid player, which is what you should be shooting for at this point.
Worst: RP CMarmol, Big Schill (BS). If he was guaranteed the role of closer, this wouldnt be as bad. But he hasn’t yet and there were closers who had solid jobs.
Runner: SP CYoung, PW. This round was full of pretty solid picks. This was just the one I liked the next least because he would have been available later.

Round 6

Best: 3B ABeltre, PW. An underrated hitter in a contract year at a shallow position. I give Lars extra props for going after the best available hitter, rather than focusing on a position (he has Longoria).
Runner: C RDoumit, KOS. A top five catcher this late is a nice pull for Pierce.
Worst: SP CKershaw, PC. There are a lot of questions on the Champs pitching staff. This just adds to them. Danks, Johnson, Slowey, Floyd, Lilly, Weaver… There were other solid players with upside. Could be a bargaining chip midseason if he pans out.
Runner: OF/1B CJackson, BS. Just a boring player who does everything just pretty well. I could see him as a back up in four rounds, but as a starter? I think Dave will need to address this position.

Round 7

Best: SP JJohnson, PW, and SP JDanks, BS. These are two pitchers who could pay huge dividends for these teams. The talent level of SP started to drop significantly after this round.
Runner: 3B KSlowey, DP. Another good pitcher.
Worst: SP BSheets, BB. Shortly after, Troy announced that he hates this league. Yes, Troy, unfortunately you’re in a league full of know-it-alls, all of whom realized Sheets won’t be back for some time. Stash him on your bench and hope he comes back in the second half.
Runner: C MNapoli, GM. I actually think this pick is where you’re supposed to take a catcher like Napoli. I just want to again point out that Casten will have two catchers until June when Wieters gets called up. Better hope he’s good.

Round 8

Best: OF CYoung, AP. Congratulations new guy. This was officially the steal of the draft. A young guy with his power and speed potential should not be had this late. OBP will be a problem with this team, but a nice pick on a player who could breakout.
Runner: RP JValverde, ROF. For a guy that has lead the NL in saves the past two years, this is a pretty low draft position. Soria and Valverde are a nice, safe, pair of relievers.
Worst: SP THanson, LOT. Don’t understand why you’d reach on this guy at this point. He’s heading to AAA and may not get a sniff until until the fall. He may prove me wrong, but I’d rather have Meche.
Runner: 3B TGlaus, MIL. This isn’t a bad pick, but Glaus is the type of streaky guy who is annoying to own and always seems to have injury problems. He has an injury that may keep him out until June or May and you had other 3Bs. Was this the one you wanted a mulligan on? Don’t blame you.

Round 9

Best: OF JCust, BS. An OBP-league guy who will be a top 100 player with regular time. And he addresses a power need on this team. It is unclear whether the Giambi signing will impact his Abs, however.
Runner: SP GMeche, ROF. There aren’t many reliable high K, low ERA pitchers at this point in the draft, but Dagan found one. He’s not flashy but its these type of picks that separate good owners from the bad ones.
Worst: 3B Hank Blalock, AP. I really don’t get this pick. When was the last time Hank was starter worthy? He’s the starter on this team. I don’t see a whole lot of upside. Better hope Mike Lowell is back and healthy.
Runner: SP MPelfrey, PW. If you had to put a gun to my head, this is the next guy I’d choose. But I really can’t complain too much about Pelfrey at this spot. If he’s ever going to produce, it will be this year.

Round 10

Best: 1B PKonerko, GM. Prior to last year, this guy was a beast (I know, I picked him first last year). Difficult to imagine the drop continue and he had a nice second half. Could pay off big for Casten.
Runner: SP JWeaver, MR. Good job by me. If he reaches his potential he could be great. Even if remains mediocre, it’s not all that bad.
Worst: OF JDrew, AP. I can say pretty confidently that you could have waited five more rounds and still got Drew. He’s just so fragile it’s a joke. Give me Elijah, Choo or DYoung.
Runner: RP HStreet, BS. Not a bad pick, but there hasn’t been much good news on Street since he saved 37 a couple years ago. Could lose his job. Brian Wilson, Francisco and Hanrahan would’ve been safer.

Round 11

Best: 2B JLopez, PW. His OBP is horrendous but he produces elsewhere. Not flashy, but productive and only 25. Great value here.
Runner: 1B JGiambi, MR. Worth taking here with the potential of 30 hrs if he stays health. Another OBP-league guy. He is 38 though.
Worst: OF JWhillingham, AP. Hate to continue to trash the new guy, but JWill is in the middle of crowded outfield, injury prone and, really, waiver wire material.
Runner: RP JMotte, PC. Can’t hate this pick too much. But at this point, there were other relievers who have a solid hold on jobs.

Round 12

Best: SP OPerez, BS. Opie is hit or miss, but when he hits, he hits big. He may have a 4.40 era with some exceptionally shitty games, but he has the potential for 200 ks. Nice pick by Commish Fox at this stage.
Runner: DH JThome, MIL. Really surprised he dropped this far. If he stays healthy, which he probably will, Moose picks up 30 hrs and 90 rbis very late in the draft.
Worst: SP MParra, KOS. Not a horrible pick, but I guarantee this guy ends up on the waiver wire eventually.
Runner: SS RTheriot, LIT. This is way too late to grab your starting shortstop. I’d pick up Lowrie if I were you.

Round 13

Best: OF EDukes, ROF. I would’ve scooped him up a few rounds ago if I wasn’t already full of OFs. Great potential, should get playing time and worth a chance at this point.
Runner: 1B/3B CGuillen, KOS. Another productive player who dropped. Great bench player/UTIL and will be OF eligible this year.
Worst: OF MLaporta, LOT. Hasn’t played in a major league game yet and won’t for some time. Sent to the minors Tuesday. Doesn’t have the type of Longoria-upside to be worth holding a spot.
Runner: RP KGregg, MR. Clearly a reach. Even if he closes, it probably won’t be for long. You suck Leech.

Round 14

Best: SP ASonnanstine, KOS. I don’t really like this guy very much, but he’s a nice player at this point and will contribute, even if he isn’t a star.
Runner: OF CCrisp, PW. He’ll hit leadoff and as long as he’s healthy I can see 100 runs and 40 sbs. Royals actually don’t have a horrible lineup.
Worst: SP JZimmerman, GM. This was typical Casten. I love that he studies and has an opinion on everything, he tends to overthink things. Could’ve had him later. Scherzer, Zimmerman, Weiters, Davis, Bruce – that’s a whole lot of youngsters. Oh and how about a 2b? Aviles would’ve been nice to have.
Runner: SP ACook, BB. It’s unlikely he’ll produce the same number of wins. Then he helps you in, lets see, zero categories.

Round 15

Best: SP APettite, GM. Nice value here. He won’t be huge and he’ll probably be injured at some point, but 15 wins isn’t out of reach.
Runner: RP MCorpas, PC. Good spring. May steal the job back and provide great value.
Worst: RP JSamardzija, LOT. Bullpen arm. Won’t get saves and isn’t even the 8th inning guy. I don’t know. Don’t see the reason for him to have been drafted.
Runner: OF TSnider, AP. You’re going to wish you drafted Adam Lind instead.

Round 16

Best: C JPosada, MR. Nice job holding off to get a catcher. Great find very late. If he sucks, no real loss. But he’s throwing well in the spring and could be huge (for a catcher).
Runner: SP JMaine, DP and CVolstad, ROF. So many crappy pitchers went before these guys. Maine is a little dinged up, but worth taking here with multi-category upside.
Worst: SP THudson, AP. “He could return in August” Nuff said.
Runner: SS KGreene, BS. I just like to pick on Dave. Could’ve found a better bench player here. No real beef though at this point.

Round 17

Best: 1B BButler, BS. A better bench player. I expect him to continue his second half swoon and be in the 25 hr 85 rbi range.
Runner: SP KKawakami, MIL. From Japan, so who knows. But Atlanta is a good place to pitch and apparently this guy is pretty good. AP’s pick of Penny was good value here as well
Worst: SS YEscobar, DP. You should not be picking starting position players in the second to last round. Yunel is pretty unexceptional in all categories.
Runner: SP EJackson, PC. Only because I would never want to start him.

Round 18

Best: 1B ALaRoche, PW. Wow, great pick here. May start off slow, but when he gets hot he’s much more valuable then where he was drafted.
Runner: 2B/3B IStewart, MR. Great last round pick, even if I do say so myself. Could start at 2B, but will get a shot eventually and was productive last year. Low risk, high reward.
Worst: RP JHowell, BS. Who is this guy?
Runner: SS MTejeda, PC. Because Jason will probably offer him to me for Hanley.






19 comments:

  1. I want to make a few points on my picks:

    1. I know Wieters was a reach, but I don't care. I would let him give me a money shot.

    2. Napoli was the #2 ranked catcher in our format last year. Yes #2. He falls way down the rankings that you read on ESPN and such because his BA is a killer, but his OBP was .370, he hit 20 HR and stole 7 bases to boot. And that was in LESS THAN 250 at bats!! He will be used in a DH role when not behind the plate and could get 500 ABs this year. He might be the steal of the draft. I know Adam was making a point about Wieters with this pick, but I think it was my best pick. I really don't think people in this league have learned how to properly adjust rankings for OBP...which is fine with me.

    3. The Zimmerman pick was a reach, but I saw T. Hanson go a few rounds earlier and I wanted to get my guy. At that point of the draft, I didn't care about reaching (around?). There were so many pitchers drafted in such weird positions this year that I really had no feel for who would be available. By the way, Zimmerman is going to be great for me. Pinpoint control always projects well for young pitchers. He is my Kevin Slowey this year.

    4. Adam REALLY liked his own draft. In the words of Terrell Owens "I love me some me"

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  2. Haha! Casten just couldn't bite his tongue. Only time will tell how our drafts went. I personal think I have the best team in the league.

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  3. I would expect nothing less than that from Casten. This has been going on since 864s at football practice when we quizzed eachother on NFL players colleges. (We're really cool)

    I realize Napoli's value. I owned him last year when he was hitting all those home runs. I just think carrying two catchers is not a smart plan. And if Napoli gets 500 abs I will lick your exceptionally large nutsack.

    And for the record, you had the same number of best or best-runner ups as I did. Lars had more than both. I do my best to be objective, but to ignore my own brilliance would be a disservice to my faithful readers.

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  4. Yes, Glaus was the accidental draft. Not a mulligan per se - that requires you to hit your ball in the first place. I accidentally ran the golf cart over my ball.

    Why did my finger have to randomly come off the touch pad right over the draft button while Glaus was highlighted!!!

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  5. This is just to defend myself a little since the only positive I got was on the 1st overall.

    For a writer one would think Adam would pick up on themes a little more. I stink at fantasy, so I wanted to try something different. So I picked young guys with a lot of upside...I also wasn't there for the last portion of the draft.

    Also, I would think a guy who writes for a living wouldn't contradict himself so much. In one spot you talk about a guy being injured so much that its a pain to own, and then in another spot you write about how you can't pass up this guy even though he gets injured all the time. I understand Chipper produces, but isn't fantasy about predicting what you think might happen this year, not relying on the past?

    I also think Alex Gordon is going to have a monster year ... and I think you must be drinking some pretty good whiskey to tell me you would rather have Encarnacion or Reynolds. That is really short sighted.

    Finally, as far as Hanson goes, he has been absolutely dominant. Tom Glavine is going to go down, and if he doesn't somebody else will and Hanson is going to get the call.

    Once again, I appreciate you doing this, but I think you were a little harsh and a little overly in love with vets on their downsides.

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  6. Good enough. My only comments are 1) because I'm a writer does not mean I am particularly observant or not adverse to contradicting myself. 2) Can't afford whiskey, but yes I had Reynolds and Encarnacion above Gordon. Look at the numbers and consider they were all born within a year of eachother. Not to say he won't produce, but he hasn't.

    Again, I'm not trying to be a prick. Just filling some space between the draft and the beginning of the season.

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  7. i liked the part where gisele was dancing.

    mauer is on the block! haha

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  8. I love the passion!! This is what makes this league so great. We have a bunch of highly opinionated owners who know fantasy baseball and take pride in their teams. I can't wait until we can do this draft live! Someday.

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  9. Damn, look at the all the comments.

    I have to say that I mostly agree with Adam's review. The key to winning year after year is to get a good blend of veterans and youngsters, and to get them on the cheap. Since we all read the same fantasy crap, we all tend to overpay for the same hyped prospects or ignore the same un-sexy veterans. I love Wieters, Baseball Prospectus projected him to have a Hall of Fame caliber catcher season (if he played the whole year). But, I knew I wouldn't pay the price others would (I would have thought about him with my 9th round pick). Casten always has prospect lust, remember he kept Delmon Young two years ago, so it didn't surprise me he took Wieters early.

    Casten, I now will disagree with you on your Napoli pick...in 4 different ways.

    First, you spent 2 of your first 7 picks on catchers. That's an expensive backstop combo.

    Second, Napoli hasn't caught a single game this spring. None. Nada. Zero. He's recovering from a shoulder injury. Might catch this weekend. Won't be a full time catcher to start the year.

    Third, there is absolutely no way that Napoli was #2 in our format last year! He's 10th in our league's 2008 rankings. He didn't lead catchers in any category. He had only 39 runs last year.

    Fourth, Napoli will not get 500 ABs this year. Mathis is a better defensive catcher and Scoicsia loves catcher defense. Vlad is the DH. Unless either of those guy go down with a major injury, Napoli is only gonna get 250-350 AB.

    Thus, the moral of the story is that you're an idiot.

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  10. Dagan,

    Where do I begin here...

    First off, I never kept Delmon. I picked him up on waivers at the end of the year 2 years ago and then traded him because I didn't think he'd ever live up to his power hype. I managed to trade him just before the deadline. My track record with prospects is pretty good. Last year I plucked Slowey, Cueto (good for a while anyway), and Chris Davis. All were very useful and Davis is a keeper and a guy who has produced power at every level. I have as good of an understanding of the top prospects in the game as anyone in this league.

    Now onto Napoli...

    I will refute your pints one by one:

    1. I did spend 2 of my first 7 on catchers, which is unorthodox, but I had very high values on both. I really didn't view Wieters as a cather because he'll hit enough where I'd use him in a utility spot. I had Napoli valued at #2 behind Mauer in an OBP format this year. BTW, there are some very smart stat geeks that agree with this assertion. Getting that good of a catcher at that point is just good business. I wasn't worried about filling positions, but obtaining assets.

    2. Napoli's shoulder injury is fine. The research on this topic lead me to a quote from Scoscia that he will use Napoli as DH early in the season. I don't care if he cathes a single game this year and he can DH all 162, but he will get in the lineup and the shoulder will be fine. His skillset is rather unique on that team (with the exception of Abreu) because he is a good OBP guy, so they will find ways to get him in the lineup.

    3. I misspoke on #2 in our format last year. I was thinking about my #2 projection for this year, which definitley warrants a 13th round selection (when you include keepers).

    4. Vlad will play in the field. Why do you think they are trying so hard to trade Matthews. The DH situation will be fluid, but there is no doubt based on Scoscia's comments that Napoli will get time there. As for the catching role, last year was Napoli's first year as a regular cather in the bigs. The platoon last year was simply to get him experience at calling games. They are confident in him to take over a true starter's split this year. Put it this way: if he would have had 400 ab's last year he would have projected 35 HR and 12 SB. 400 Ab's is not a stretch by any means this year.

    Eat a fat black dick, Dagan.

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  11. Check the link, Casten.

    http://archive.fantasysports.yahoo.com/archive/pmlb/2007/4315/draftresults

    You kept Delmon Young going into the 2007 after he hit 3 HR and struck out 24 times in 30 games. Quite a stud.

    Angles already have a 4-man outfield/DH platoon: Vlad, Abreu, Hunter, and Guillen. I don't see Napoli stealing very many ABs from that group.

    Mathis is gonna catch...a lot...especially during the first month of the season while Napoli's shoulder recovers. Unfortunately, that's when you'll most need a catcher.

    In other words, you must have been PMSing during the draft.

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  12. You also kept a closer that year, which is stupid.

    Who's Guillen? You mean Jaun Rivera? Napoli is a better hitter than Rivera, who only had one decent year in his career. I am not worried about Napoli because HIS FUCKING MANAGER SAID THAT HE WILL DH. I don't care about your analysis. Napoli's injury is minor and he's catching a regular ST game this week.

    I also don't care much about the first month of the season. As always, I will make the playoffs and that is when my team will be ready to dish out a good ass-raping.

    By the way, your team sucks. Way to bank on Floyd (overrated, unsustainable stats), Volstad (a rookie without top-flight stuff) and Jiminez (trendy pick, but erratic) as key members of your pitching staff. As always, you drafted the all-trendy team, but it won't work this year...

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  13. Number of Championships:

    Dagan 2
    Casten 0

    Nuff said.

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  14. Dagan 2
    Dave 1
    Jason 1
    Casten 0
    Leech 0

    oh yeah!

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  15. Dagan ties that he got lucky on....2

    Go split some atoms. I am drunk and my fingers smell...

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  16. Dave, sorry I left you off the Championships Won leaderboard.

    Jason, I refuse to acknowledge that you won last year. I hate you. Just kidding, you're the best!

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  17. I say Casten and Dagan throw up a side wager on Napoli's stats this year!

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