2023 Draft Review

7TH ROUND

BEST: SS Tim Anderson CHW (S. Napalm) - Tough go of it last season, but he's still got elite skills and the ability to contribute to four categories and be ok in OBP. One of my goals this year with SBs was to get players who had high SB conversion rates, assuming they were the best bets to steal more. Anderson was 13 for 13 last year.

RUNNERUP: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Freedom) - I'm just guessing this is the last time we all had an opportunity to draft Greene, barring injury. Elite and ready to go 160+ IP. Will blow up, but this talent doesn't show up often.

WORST: SP Clayton Kershaw LAD (Ex-Presidents) - This seems a little harsh, but the first round didn't have any real whiffs. He's actually a good fit for Jeff's roster post-draft, I just can't get behind Kershaw this high. He last went over 125 IP in 2019.

RUNNERUP: SS Jeremy Pena HOU (Donkey) - Again, no big problem with this, but just a few other guys I'd like here. Could be 90/25/70/20 but that .280 OBP is brutal.

X-FACTOR: SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Ex-Presidents) - Probably would've been kept if we knew what we knew at the time of the draft. Still risk, but this probably would've been my 1.1. I'm a whore for upside and five-category potential.

8TH ROUND

BEST: OF Bryce Harper PHI (Montezuma's) - I'll give myself props because I'm still a little surprised he wasn't kept. Yes he could miss half the season, but this is H2H and it's Bryce Harper. And he'll be Bryce Harper in the second half. And he'll be Bryce Harper in the playoffs. And he'll be Bryce Harper next year.

RUNNERUP: 2B/3B Max Muncy LAD (Angry) - Third base is a shitshow and Muncy is a top 10 option in an OBP league. It may not be sexy, but he could be huge producer for Kyle's squad. There's no reason he can't get to 90/35/90/5/.360.

WORSTEST*: RP Emmanuel Clase CLE (Grit BB) - Per tradition, the first RP always gets the worst pick award. This one is exceptionally bad, but gets an asterisk because Chris spaced the start time of the draft and got autodrafted. Clase is great but he still only had 3 more S+H (and 17 less Ks) than AJ Minter, who went 9 rounds later.

WORST:  OF Giancarlo Stanton NYY (Brokeback) - For such a big name, he actually only contributes to two categories (HR, RBI). No speed, sub-.300 OBP last year, and has only scored 137 runs the last four years combined.

RUNNERUP:  SS Carlos Correa MIN (Montezuma's) - I hated everything about this pick and how it transpired, seeing Tim Anderson, Anthony Volpe, and Hunter Greene disappear from my queue. He had 590 plate appearances on a pretty good team last year and could only muster 70/22/64/0/.366. Then there's the whole failed physical thing in the offseason. Ugh. Shoot me. 

X-FACTOR: SP Tyler Glasnow TB (One Nut) - The per-game K upside is obviously compelling, but we're still talking about a 28yo who only has one season above 100 IP in his career (111 in 2018).

9TH ROUND

BEST: 1B Nathanel Lowe TEX (Knuckle) - First base gets pretty shallow pretty quick and Lowe was a revelation last year. The Rangers have an emerging lineup and he's right in the center of it all -- he could be 90/30/90/5/.350 without blinking an eye.

RUNNERUP: SP Lucas Giolito CHW (Moose) - There's still elite talent here and at 28, he's a year YOUNGER than Tyler Glasnow, with five years of putting up a full starter's workloads, achieving 200+ Ks twice. 

WORST: 2B Javier Baez DET (Archibald) - Never linked him much in OBP leagues, but there was obviously value. After last year's horrendous 64/17/67/9/.278 in 590 abs, he could've been had a few rounds later. 

RUNNERUP: SP Tony Gonsolin LAD (Ex-Presidents) - I never like investing much in SPs that are injured before the season starts. Gonsolin's upside is low enough that it doesn't support the risk here, even with a great draftboard.

X-FACTOR: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Montezuma's) - Elite stuff, but injuries have stopped him from hitting the next level. He's healthy and 25yo with even greater velocity this spring. Could be a big year coming... or could not be.  

10TH ROUND

BEST: 1B Tristan Casas BOS (Donkey) - With first base becoming more shallow, this was a great spot for a hitter that could be a four-category contributor out the gate as he's shown elite plate discipline and has 35 HR upside. Great pick for 2023 and beyond here. 

RUNNERUP: SP Reid Detmers LAA (Ex-Presidents) - Like the Casas pick, this one is great for 2023 and beyond. If Detmers continues with the growth he showed after he was sent down last season, this may be a keeper for the next 7 years. 

WORST: OF Jake McCarthy ARI (Ring) - Call me a prospect snob, but I need some pedigree to trust this type of condensed production from a player who pops up out of nowhere. Could prove me wrong and SBs may be excellent, but I could see this flopping easily. (Giving Shomphe a pass for the Romano pick since he was till unaware the draft was happening at this point - he's been punished enough.)

RUNNERUP: 3B Kebryan Hayes PIT (Archibald) - He's still just 26, but through 1,000 big league at bats his 162-game average is an Elvis Andrusy 75/11/57/18/.321 line. 

X-FACTOR: OF Taylor Ward LAA (Knuckle) - I still don't completely trust the out-of-nowhereness of Ward, but the underlying skills support the production last year when he wasn't injured. Hitting leadoff in front of Ohtani and Trout, he could be 100/25/70/10/.360. 

11TH ROUND

BEST:  SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) - Morton has an ageless arm, and while it would be silly to keep expecting the same production every year, even something lesser than 4.30/1.20 and 200Ks would be a steal here. There's a lot of risky young pitchers going in this area, so loved this. 

RUNNERUP:  TIE 1B CJ Cron COL (Brokeback) and OF Anthony Santander (Cowhide) - Pretty similar production last year for unappreciated youngsters, with both likely to be around 80/30/90/0/.320. This was a surprising drop given the other players taken here. 

WORST:  SP Triston McKenzie CLE (One Nut) - I'm fine with taking a shot at an injury risk and Jason certainly had a great draftboard, this was way too high given the injury and history. I don't think he would've gone for another five rounds.

RUNNERUP: OF JD Martinez LAD (Brokeback) - Last year's production was so mediocre and LA is the place that mediocrity goes to become an effective platoon that is essentially useless for fantasy. 

X-FACTOR: SS Ezequiel Tovar COL (Freedom) - Lots of candidates in this round with the likes of Altuve, HBrown, Grayson, ECabrera, Melendez, and Kelenic, but this is the biggest boom or bust. By the end of May he'll either be a star in the making or in AAA. 

12TH ROUND

BEST: OF Lars Nootbaar STL (Donkey) - He's the 2023 hyped out-of-nowhere industry darling, so it was a little surprising to see him go this late. In the sporadic playing time to this point in his career, the 25yo paces at around 100/30/85/10/.340 in 600 abs. It's imperfect because a lot of that was pinch hitting and platooning, but the underlying skills and exit velocities point to a potential star. Good price here. 

RUNNERUP: 3B Josh Jung TEX (Freedom) - There's an approach issue here and I expect some struggles, but I could totally see him becoming a 80/25/80/10/.320 guy this season and improving on that over time. Could be a perennial keeper. 

WORST: OF Cody Bellinger CHC (Brokeback) - I can get behind a wing and a prayer later in the draft, but he had a .210 average last year and .165 the year before. And it really isn't a small sample size things. He's just been lost and 2019 was a long long time ago. No thanks. 

RUNNERUP: SP Tyler Mahle MIN (Brokeback) - In Watson's defense, he owned like half the picks in this round. And no real problem here. His velocity was just down in the spring and his 43.5% QS% last year with middling rates just makes him my least favorite player drafted in the round... other than Bellinger, who is fucking terrible.

X-FACTOR: OF Masataka Yoshida BOS (Montezuma's) - It's always hard to know what to expect from Japanese imports. If he really doesn't have any speed and the power is just mediocre, he could be dropped easily. But he's super patient and batting cleanup, so his transition could be seamless.

13TH ROUND

BEST:  3B Alex Bohm PHI (Archibald) - Bohm has been pretty meh thus far in his career, but he's just 26 and has made steady improvements that indicate he could be on the verge of a breakout. The floor is pretty low too and 3B is a verifiable dumpsterfire this year. 

RUNNERUP: SP Nate Eovaldi TEX (Ex-Presidents) - Nothing sexy about this pick, but that's why I like it. This is easy SP3-4 production in a park that favors pitchers with velocity and health that is right where it should be. I expect a great year. 

WORST:  RP Josh Hader SD (S. Napalm) - The first deliberate RP selection gets the special honor. Again, Hader had 36 S+H and 81 Ks last year, which is fine. But so is the 35 S+H and 85 Ks by Taylor Rogers, who Kyle picked up off waivers.

RUNNERUP:  1B Darick Hall PHI (Donkey) - Power is cool and stuff, but there was lots of it at this point in the draft. And it comes with a lot better than a 4% BB%.

XFACTOR:  OF Nick Castellanos PHI (One Nut) - I've long panned past picks - or keeps - of this guy in the past, but I actually like it here. His walk rates suck, but there's no reason he can't get to 80/25/80/5/.330 in that ballpark and lineup. But he's also 31 and chasing sluggers tend to not age well, so could be just experiencing natural painful decline.

14TH ROUND

BEST:  1B Ryan Mountcastle BAL (Cowhide) - It's easy to not appreciate three-category power production at first, but this is easy power with opportunity for more at 26yo and in an improving lineup. His 162-game average is 76/30/99/4/.315 and small improvements gets him to the top of the second tier of 1B behind Vla/Goldy/Freeman/Alonso/Olsen.

RUNNERUP:  OF Garrett Mitchell MIL (Freedom) - He's got a great approach and the opportunity for a full time job, so I like the selection at this point of a good draftboard. There's 80/25/80/40/.350 upside here, but MIL has lots of good options if he struggles. 

WORST:  SP Lance McCullers HOU (One Nut) - The only thing I hate more than RPs this early are injury-prone starters who are starting the season injured and surrounded by decent options breathing down his neck.

RUNNERUP:  OF Jake Fraley CIN (Angry) - I kind of like him as a flyer, but he's never going to not platoon. I really don't like settling for that at this point. 

XFACTOR:  2B Brandon Drury LAA (Angry) - This was a great pick, but could definitely go sideways. He was definitely a nice surprise last year, but doesn't walk or run and was definitely aided by Great American Bomb Park as his production ceased to a halt once traded to San Diego. 

15TH ROUND

BEST: SS Nico Hoerner CHC (Donkey) - The question was always power and he found some last year. When combined with a great approach and batting leadoff, that means 100/15/60/30/.340 is not a stretch at all and -- at 26 and with a good amount of pedigree -- could be significantly better. 

RUNNERUP:  SP Graham Ashcraft CIN (Freedom) - Ashcraft was very productive in the minors and inconsistent in the majors last year. But the underlying stuff was always good, even without an effective third pitch. Now his retooled slider is making analysts moist and causing fits. Still some blowup risk, but good shot to take here. 

WORST:  SS Vaughn Grissom ATL (One Nut) - I agree he should be with the big league club to see what he can do, but this isn't the type of talent that you select this high and stash in the one NA spot you have. Solid hit tool and all around skills but nothing loud and not likely to be productive out the gate when called up. 

RUNNERUP:  RP Alexis Diaz CIN (Freedom) - Bad team and a career 12.7% BB% and lots of other RPs available? Barf. 

XFACTOR:  2B Thairo Estrada SF (Archibald) - He came out of nowhere last year, but his underlying data was pretty good. He could easily go back to obscurity, but at 27, he could be just emerging into a 100/20/75/30/.330 multi-position eligible stud. 

16TH ROUND

BEST: OF Michael Conforto SF (Brokeback) - I am a little shocked how late he's gone in drafts. SF is desperate for a power bat and Conforto's last healthy season was 90/33/92/7/.363 in 2019. He's 30 and back after a season off, so I'm optimistic he can settle back in and DH when necessary. 

RUNNERUP:  SP Jon Gray TEX (Ring) - It was nice to see Gray without his Coors warts last season. It's still an imperfect profile, but the stuff is there and the ballpark is good. If he can stay healthy and get to six innings every other start, he can be a solid SP4-5 and the floor isn't so bad. 

WORST:  SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR (Angry) - Yeah yeah, nice spring. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me seven times...

RUNNERUP:  2B/OF Whit Merrifield TOR (Donkey) - I just think he's done. He did a great job maximizing his skills for a longtime, but it ends at some point and 34yo makes sense for him to settle into a part-time starter. TOR didn't give up a ton for him, so there's no dedication to his mediocrity. 

XFACTOR:  SP Eduardo Rodriguez DET (Brokeback) - I love this pick because there's reason to be optimistic after he dealt with COVID worse than most and then stepped away last year for personal reasons. He's just 30 and the skills are still good, so this could be a solid fantasy starter. But this could also be the season we just realize he'll always be unreliable.

17TH ROUND

BEST:  C Tyler Stephenson CIN (Montezuma's) - One of the best hitting catchers in the league, Stephenson has dealt with sporadic playing time and injuries, but is still just 26. In 571 big league at bats (full season), he's 89/18/90/1/.369. In rebuild mode, CIN is dedicated to making him a centerpiece of the lineup and get him regular at bats outside of catching so this could be the breakout campaign. 

RUNNERUP: SP Marcus Stroman CHC (Grit B&B) - There's a lot of promise and forgotten big seasons taken among the SP ranks in this area of the draft, but few offer consistent contributions like Stroman. Not sexy, but solid through and through. 

WORST:  2B Michael Massey KC (Ex-Presidents) - We're getting to the end of Jeff's draft so hard to argue with getting your guys, but the chances of him getting above .300 OBP is low and there's enough interesting guys in the KC farm system that consistent playing time is not likely. Could be wrong, but there's a lot more interesting guys out there. 

RUNNERUP:  RP Scott Barlow KC (Archibald) - Good pitcher, but bad team. Jason Adam had the same number of Ks and S+H and better ERA. 

XFACTOR:  OF Joey Meneses WAS (Angry) - Lots of good options with Tork and Flaherty also taken here, but I'm so intrigued by Meneses. He was a Portland Sea Dog when he was dropped by the Sox before catching on with the Nats and catching fire last season. He could flop or flourish more than anyone. 

18TH ROUND

BEST:  SP Mackenzie Gore WAS (Donkey) - Gore was all the rage at the beginning of last season before he became derailed. But we're still talking about what many considered to be can't miss talent and will have every opportunity to excel this year. 

RUNNERUP:  OF Mitch Haniger SF (Donkey) - Starting a new season injured while coming off an injury-riddled season is never good, but Jed could benefit considerably. We don't see 110/39/100/1/.318 seasons very often, so its surprising so many forgot about Haniger's 2021. 

WORST:  SP German Marquez COL (One Nut) - "I wish I knew how to quit you." 

RUNNERUP:  SP Brayan Bello BOS (Ex-Presidents0 - I like Bello long-term, but I see very little chance he becomes a consistent contributor before Jeff drops him. Pure talent is there, but nothing in the underlying numbers last year suggest a breakout is coming. 

XFACTOR:  OF Esteury Ruiz OAK (Angry) - The epitome of an XFactor. There is no outcome this season that would surprise me. He could steal 50 bases and get on base 33% of the time or he could be back in the minors in the third week of the season. 

19TH ROUND

BEST:  SP Kenta Maeda MIN (Moose) - TJS is never good, but Maeda's last MLB pitch was 20 months ago (ie, well outside the 15-month recovery window) and he was a stud before that with a career 9.8 K/9 and 3.70/1.13. There's reason to believe that the spring will be a little rough but that he will ultimately settle into SP4 production easily - a steal at this point in the draft. 

RUNNERUP:  SP Aaron Civale CLE (Brokeback) - There isn't as much upside as Maeda, but the talent is palpable and he seemed to have a little extra last year. Still hasn't gone over 125 IP in a season, but still time for growth at 28yo.

WORST:  OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Moose) - It's easy to remember the good times and forget we haven't seen one since 2020 and that Ozuna hasn't posted an OBP above .288 since then.

RUNNERUP:  3B Yandy Diaz TB (Knuckle) - The only thing worse than false hope is having no hope at all. He's at least got a nice OBP that you can count on being in the .370-.400 range. 

XFACTOR:  SS Trevor Story BOS (Montezuma's) - Is he out for the season or coming back in a few weeks? If it's the latter, drafting a five-category contribute under the age of 30 is a huge get. 

20TH ROUND

BEST:  RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Cowhide) - In a S+H league, talent is king. Gallegos has some of the best underlying numbers and pure talent of any reliever in the game. 

RUNNERUP:  SP Zack Eflin TB (Grit B&B) - PHI wasn't a great place for him and TB isn't great either from a fantasy perspective, but Eflin does a great job limiting hard contact and is on a team that can maximize his talent - even if they don't let him ever go 6 IP. 

WORST:  2B Jon Berti MIA (Grit B&B) - I get it, but I also know MIA is not likely to let him play a ton. Position eligibility is cool, but Berti's top skill is one that may be widely available this season. 

RUNNERUP:  OF Oscar Gonzalez CLE (Moose) - He had a nice season, but has flop written all over him: little pedigree, no patience, stiff competition, high BABIP. 

XFACTOR:  OF Ramon Laureano OAK (S. Napalm) - Couple middling seasons make it easy to forget he has a 162-game average of 89/25/73/18/.323 in his career and is 28. If he can get back on track and gets traded to a contender with OF needs like LAD, ATL, NYY, this could be a big season. Or he could actually really suck. 

21ST ROUND

BEST:  1B/2B/3B/SS/OF Brendan Donovan STL (Montezuma's) - He's reportedly made some power gains after a breakout season that showed off his hit tool and produce a .384 OBP. If he's leadoff and has a little pop, that could be huge. But the biggest thing is all those numbers and letters before his name. He's a bench spot dream.

RUNNERUP:  OF Jesse Winker MIL (Moose) - SEA wasn't a great fit for Winker's skills, but MIL definitely is. A 80/25/80/5/.370 season is well within reach and he could blow past those numbers easily. 

WORST:  SP Cole Irvin BAL (Moose) - It's like admitting defeat before the season even gets started. This is waiver wire fodder.

RUNNERUP:  3B Josh Donaldson NYY (Cowhide) - I don't really hate any other picks here, but we've seen exactly one season of 500 abs since 2016.

XFACTOR:  SS Adalberto Mondesi BOS (Donkey) - There's so much focus on speed and lack of OBP that we often forget there's other category juice here. His 162 game average is 81/17/71/60/.280 and he's 27. I don't expect greatness or health, but I know what can come when he's right. 

22ND ROUND

BEST: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Archibald) - He's 28 now and it feels like we still haven't seen it all come together, but if it just comes together a little bit, we could easily get 75/20/75/10/.360 at a tough position to fill. But there's potential for more and floor isn't so bad when you consider the health issues he's had. 

RUNNERUP: OF Oscar Colas CHW (Montezuma's) - Colas is one of the more interesting rookies this year and uniquely refined for a Cuban transplant with previous experience as a two-way player. There's a lot of upside and the floor is better than you think. 

WORST:  3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (S. Napalm) - There's pop here, but not much else and I feel like CHC is looking for an excuse not to use him regularly. 

RUNNERUP:  TIE SP Johnny Cueto MIA (Grit B&B) and SP Noah Syndergaard LAD (S. Napalm) - Old, slow and boring is no way to live boys... even though that would describe most of our lives.

XFACTOR:  SS Elly De La Cruz CIN (Cowhide) - The only thing bigger than his floor is his ceiling.

23TH ROUND

BEST:  SP Kyle Bradish BAL (Grit B&B) - Bradish is the token young pitcher. Spotty control, killer stuff, and a bunch of promise. He has a spot and spiked some huge games last year. But at this point in the draft, you take your shots and see hope for the best. 

RUNNERUP:  RP Rafael Montero HOU (Archibald) - S+H leaders change from year to year. To wit, Montero never had more than 11 before last season. But last year he had more than Edwin Diaz (37 vs. 36) and will have a prominent role in the HOU bullpen this year. 

WORST:  RP DL Hall BAL (S. Napalm) - There's not real "wrong answers" at this point in the draft, but when selecting an NA in Yahoo you need someone who you think can contribute immediately. Hall is the antithesis. Incredible stuff - like top tier (minor league K/9 is 12.6!) - but the control is historically bad (minor league BB/9 is 5.1). He'll find a role and be a fantasy asset at some point, but it won't be this year. 

RUNNERUP:  RP Alex Lange DET (S. Napalm) - Not a bad pitcher, but being a closer on a bad team doesn't help in this league. 

XFACTOR:  SP Brandon Pfaadt ARI (Montezuma's) - One of those minor leaguer SPs with the skills to contribute immediately a la George Kirby. He was in contention for the rotation, but was sent back to the minors, where he struck out 218 batters - the most by a minor league SP since 2001. This is a rotation with Zach Davies and Madison Bumgartner, so there's not a lot holding him back but it could be a while

24TH ROUND

BEST:  3B Brett Baty NYM (Grit B&B) - This is the type of NA you want. Strong hit tool, big time pop, and only Eduardo Escobar standing in his way. He has elite bat speed and got a taste of the majors last year. Keeper potential in the last round.

RUNNERUP:  RP Hector Neris HOU (Brokeback) - See Montero, Rafael. 

WORST:  OF Joc Pederson SF (Ring) - I mean, I get it in a way. But accepting a platoon bat as part of your opening day roster is a little defeatist in mind. The good doctor Dagan is a lot more practical than me, but I would've taken a flyer on someone a little more fun.

RUNNERUP:  RP Anthony Bass TOR (Moose) - No biggy, just a lot of other RPs I prefer. 

XFACTOR: OF James Outman LAD (S. Napalm) - The Dodgers have a crowded but mostly mediocre outfield filled with guys like David Peralta, Trayce Thompson, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor and a half dozen prospects that could fill the space. You gotta assume LAD will find the right combo and Outman has some big power from the left side. 

2023 Pre-Draft Rankins

 

High & Tight Offseason Guide

 Offseason guide can be found here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OBOi0fhWtPmEeK3jHVg8yU13mlIuCiKOyR-el_VrMYg/edit#gid=822139138

2022 Draft Review

 ROUND 7

Best: OF Tyler ONeill STL (Grit B&B) – There’s a lot of swing and miss and not enough walks, but if there was one potential 5-category contributor in their mid-20s with a chance to be a fantasy star, it’s ONeill.

Runner-Up: SP Shane McClanahan TB (Donkey) – Soooo many pitchers taken early, but the one I feel most confident in being kept for the next five years, it’s this guy. I’m a big McClanafan. 

Worst: C Will Smith LAD (Ex-Presidents) – Theoretically it sort of makes sense given that his 162 avg is 92/35/106/4/.363 and he’s 27 and there’s a DH. But this is the Dodgers are gonna Dodger and give him the customary time off, while sporting a deep roster of guys to put in the DH spot.  Probably looking at number similar to last year, which are great… for a catcher… and not in the first round.

Runner-Up: P Shohei Ohtani-Pitcher LAA (Knuckle) – He’ll be good when he’s there, but he won’t always be. Knuckle kept four SPs and have a lineup anchored by a potential one hit wonder (Mullins) and a 3-cat ho-hummer (Castellanos).

X-Factor: 1B/3B Spencer Torkelson DET (Montezuma’s) – I was going hitter the whole way and the only one I would’ve taken over Tork is ONeill. As ready of a prospect as we will ever see with big four-category potential for the next decade.

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ROUND 8

Best: 1B/OF Kyle Shwarber PHI (One Nut) – Honestly, couldn’t have gone to a better spot this side of Colorado. Perfect fit for that lineup and he’s a surefire four category guy.  

Runner-Up: SP Charlie Morton ATL (Ex-Presidents) – Nine SP picked to this point and everyone might’ve missed the best one. By underlying metrics, there were none better last year. 

Worst: OF Jo Adell LAA (Freedom) – I had my eye on him too, but this is just too early for the amount of risk included. 

Runner-Up: SP Jack Flaherty STL (One Nut) – Someone had to take him, but it wasn’t going to be me… at least not in the second round. This would be “worst” if Jason didn’t have so many early picks to burn. 

X-Factor: SS Adalberto Mondesi KC (Montezuma’s) – I feel so much less confident in this one than the first X factor. But with Tatis out for a while, at least I got SBs out of the way. Still, with two rookies now and a long-term injury already on the roster, the floor of a sub-.200 part-time injury prone player may be fool hearty. 

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ROUND 9

Best: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Angry Pirates) – Again, a crazy amount of SPs taken at this point – 19 of 36 picks! - but one of the best ceiling/floor/long-term keeper takes in the draft was Gilbert. I think he’s a potential ace, but at worst he’s a fine SP4. 

Runner-Up: OF Seiya Suzuki (Tomahawk) – Really was surprised he didn’t go closer to the first given the hype. This isn’t Hae-Soeng Kim coming over from the KBO. The Nippon League is legit competition and he has the looks of at least a fine 80/25/80/10/.340 player for the next 5 years. 

Worst: SP Noah Syndergaard LAA (Brokeback) – There isn’t much of a case for Thor going this high outside of name value. He could be good, but he’s had one season of 180 IP, 200 K, sub-3.00/1.20 and that was six years ago.

Runner-Up: 1B Joey Votto CIN (Angry Pirates) – I know last season was great, but there were three straight season where he had 15 HR or less before that. 

X-Factor: OF Christian Yelich MIL (Montazuma’s) – Like Mondesi, the range of outcomes here is quite high. 

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ROUND 10

Best: SP John Means BAL (Angry Pirates) – A lot of bad luck went into last year’s numbers. Assuming that normalizes, the dramatic change in ballpark dimensions could make Means a top 30 arm. 

Runner-Up: OF Austin Meadows DET (Grit B&B) – Even before the trade, which occurred minutes before this selection, it’s a little absurd to let a 30 HR/100 RBI bat fall this hard. Sure the platoon splits are there, but that also makes it pretty easy to know when to start him.

Worst: SP Michael Kopech CHW (Cowhide) – Always loved the talent, the player is a bit of an unreliable headcase and seems to be the type of person his old school manager hates most. On a per-inning basis, he should be pretty good but QSs will be hard to come by.

Runner-Up: SP Tarik Skubal DET (Napalm) – The arm is special, but the HR rate is uniquely terrible. It just means volatility will be part of his profile until that changes. 

X-Factor: OF/C Daulton Varsho ARI (Freedom) – This is an early catcher I can get behind, with unique blend of speed, power, and advanced approach, topped off with C eligibility in a season where he likely won’t see one start there. 

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ROUND 11

Best: SP Patrick Sandoval LAA (Ring) – I love Sandoval, but missed out on him in every league I’m in. There’s just a lot of clean underlying numbers that hint at potential ace this season.  

Runner-Up: SS Dansby Swanson ATL (Knuckle) – He’s boring, sure, but that’s a lot of value at this point in the draft. 

Worst: SP Stephen Strasburg WAS (Brokeback) – I’m hopeful and even slightly optimistic at a rebound, but there’s no way I’d call him a top 150 fantasy value this season. 

Runner-Up: 3B Justin Turner LAD (Brokeback) – I know he’s a solid bat, and maybe he’s boosted by the DH spot, by he’s 38 and last year was the first time he reached 500 abs since he was 32.

X-Factor: 3B Yoan Moncada CHW (Cowhide) – I believe in the talent, the pedigree, and the COVID excuse, but at some point seeing is believing. Maybe the Sale for Moncada/Kopech deal just wasn’t as big as we thought at the time.

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ROUND 12

Best: SP Shane Baz TB (Montezuma’s) – In H2H, you really just need to be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope for the best. Baz’s surgery was to remove loose bodies, not fix a tendon or muscle. So recovery is expected to be relatively easy. He might not be here til mid June, but TB was going to keep his innings low anyway.  

Runner-Up: SP Anthony DeSclafani SF (Grit B&B) – Tony Disco is perpetually underappreciated, but if he can stay healthy for 180 ip he’s an easy 170K 3.80/1.20.

Worst: SP Hyun Jin Ryu TOR (Donkey) – To be clear, I don’t hate the pick in what was a very solid round. But he didn’t get much of a warm-up in the spring and didn’t look good when he did. Given the injury history, its hard to trust him. 

Runner-Up: SP Kyle Gibson PHI (Moose) – Again, about where he should be picked, but his numbers fell off once he went to Philly and that defense got even worse.

X-Factor: SP Hunter Greene CIN (Brokeback) – After picking a bunch of old boring guys, Watson picks perhaps the most exciting and potentially maddening player available. Huge arm, huge risk. 

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ROUND 13

Best: SP Jesus Luzardo MIA (Brokeback) – Hard to take much from spring training, but if you’re going to take anything, sudden rises in MPH among high pedigree SPs is the thing. Great pick here. 

Runner-Up: OF Dylan Carlson STL (Knuckle) – News that DC was going to be the new leadoff hitter in front Goldy/Arenado/ONeill is all you need to know. But the high pedigree and steady improvement just makes this potential keeper even better. 

Worst: SP Trevor Bauer LAD (Donkey) – I was just out this year. Maybe it’ll come back to bite me, but we all saw what black balling did to Kaepernick. He’ll get another shot somewhere someday, but I wasn’t about to spend a lot to guess when. 

Runner-Up: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Donkey) – Fucking relievers.

X-Factor: OF Marcell Ozuna ATL (Napalm) – Never known as the hardest of workers, it makes you wonder what a year in purgatory did to a historically volatile hitter. Payoff could be huge, or he could waiver wire fodder.

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ROUND 14

Best: SS CJ Abrams SD – It was looking pretty clear he was going to make the opening day roster, so I loved this pick at this point in the draft. Easy speed with some pop. A whole lot of prospect risk, but the payoff could be huge at a point in the draft where people are often clinging to safety.  

Runner-Up: SP Alex Cobb SF – The stuff has always been there, but now the velo is up and he’s in the SP rehab center of Major League Baseball. Solid with upside. 

Worst: RP Aroldis Chapman NYY – I mean, he’s an RP, but he’s also showing signs of the wheels getting looser each season. His 1.31 WHIP was the first time he exceeded 1.15 in a decade.

Runner-Up: RP Craig Kimbrel LAD – See above.

X-Factor: SP Yusei Kikuchi TOR – Hard to know what to expect from this guy given the wide range of outcomes so far and streakiness. TOR certainly wasn’t the best spot for him, but there’s a potential 180K starter there. 

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ROUND 15

Best: SP Alex Wood SF (Cowhide) – Wood has shown the ability to be a start when he’s healthy—and he is, and his velo is up. Strong buy here.  

Runner-Up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (Freedom) – It was a tale of two season for Bobby last year. The part after Schwarber was on the team made Bobby look like  perennial 80/40/90/5/.330 guy. The one before that made him look like Rob Deer. I like the chance of him holding the latter profile. 

Worst: OF Michael Conforto FA (Brokeback) – We didn’t know everything about his issues like we do now, but we knew he was talented and didn’t have a team, so it's hard to justify hanging onto him here – especially since he can’t go on the IL without a team. 

Runner-Up: C Keibert Ruiz WAS (Ex-Presidents) – The pick is not bad as selecting a player without a team, but getting a second catcher (and one with a pretty mediocre fantasy profile) is just perplexing. 

X-Factor: 3B/SS Eugenio Suarez SEA (Montezuma’s) – Last year was uniquely awful, but even if he splits the difference with the previous two seasons, this has the potential for outsized gains.

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ROUND 16

Best: SS Oneil Cruz PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re going NA at this point, it should be for a guy who showed something when he was up already and would’ve gone 8 rounds earlier if he made the team out of spring training. Volatile profile, but big talent.  

Runner-Up: 2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux LAD (Montezuma’s) – Once Pollock got dealt, the only thing standing between Lux and regular ABs was himself and he improved as last season wore down. Big post-hype sleeper here. 

Worst: SP Eric Lauer MIL (Tomahawk) – There’s just nothing exceptional in the profile, but there is something exceptional nipping at his heals in the rotation (Ashby).

Runner-Up: SS Brendan Rodgers COL (Ex-Presidents) – I actually don’t hate the pick and was even looking at him around this time, I just can’t ever find statistical support for what made him such a big prospect. 

X-Factor: SP Mitch Keller PIT (Tomahawk) – Speaking of post-hype sleepers, it’s hard not to get excited about a pitcher with pedigree that add 3 mph to his fastball in the offseason. However, the space between the ceiling and the floor could fit a small country.

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ROUND 17

Best: SP Drew Rasmussen TB (Ring) – Love the overall profile, but don’t love him being in TB, where it requires an act of Congress to allow a SP to go six innings.  

Runner-Up: TIE RP Edwin Diaz NYM (Tomahawk) & RP Kenley Jensen ATL (Napalm) – Good example of what we wait for RPs in S+H leagues. Hendricks went four rounds before, but likely won’t have any more SHs than these two. 

Worst: 3B Patrick Wisdom CHC (Napalm) – He had his moments last year, but was very streaky and CHC is rebuilding so they don’t have much reason to let a 31 yo has been play through a 3 for 40 streak. 

Runner-Up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Cowhide) – Not a horrible pick, but guys like Gonsloin, Pivetta, Cortes, Wright offered better upside with just as much risk. 

X-Factor: 1B/OF Connor Joe COL (Freedom) – Interesting player I wouldn’t care much about outside of Colorado, but he’s got sneaky 80/25/80/.370 potential .

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ROUND 18

Best: OF Andrew Benintendi KC (Angry Pirates) – Pretty boring from a fantasy perspective, but he’s a very solid OF3 and could run even more this season.  

Runner-Up: 1B Brandon Belt SF (Ex-President) – I sure would love to see a health season from Belt this year because if you take 2020-21 production combined you get 90/38/89/3/.390 in 475 abs. 

Worst: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Cowhide) – Until we see what we’ve seen the last two springs show up in the regular season, he seems like a longshot to make an impact. One of those guys I could see putting it all together in four years, but on some other team. 

Runner-Up: SP Merrill Kelly ARI (Moose) – Velo is up, but there’s a reason this guy gets bounced around fantasy teams all season. He’s just never consistent enough to roster for long periods.

X-Factor: OF Hunter Renfroe MIL (Angry Pirates) – The range of outcomes for this guy is perhaps as extreme as it gets for a MLB regular. That means some amazing streaks on both extremes. 

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ROUND 19

Best: C Alejandro Kirk TOR (Brokeback) – Love the hit tool, love the DH hole, love the love TOR shows him. Could get full time ABs in a great lineup this year. 

Runner-Up: RP Giovanny Gallegos STL (Angry Pirates) – I get the hesitancy to draft him among the top 10 RPs in a saves league, but his fall here doesn’t make much sense. 

Worst: SP Kris Bubic KC (Knuckle) – I don’t see any value beyond the fact that you can call him Booby-C. 

Runner-Up: SP MacKenzie Gore SD (Freedom) – Given the struggles last season, this is not the guy I would fill my lone NA spot with.

X-Factor: SP Nestor Cortes NYY (Freedom) – I was bummed and relieved not to get him. His numbers looks like a legit fantasy SP, but he looks like a legit Mario brother. 

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ROUND 20

Best: SP Marco Gonzalez SEA (Moose) – It ain’t sexy, but it’s productive as hell in a QS league.  

Runner-Up: RP Blake Treinen LAD (One Nut) – This guy might lead the league in S+H… and here he is in the 20th.

Worst: C Christian Vazquez BOS (Knuckle) – I’m 1000% certain at this point that the 66/23/72/4/.320 guy we saw in 2019 is the outlier and the 51/6/49/8/.308 we saw in 2021 is more of what to expect… you know… minus all the random steals. 

Runner-Up: SS Tyler Wade LAA (Tomahawk) – He’s been in the league for five years and his cumulative line is 81/6/33/30/.300 in 461 abs. I don’t expect Maddon will suddenly make him a regular or that he’d do much with it if he was to become one. 

X-Factor: 1B Keston Hiura MIL (Brokeback) – Milwaukee just seems to breed extreme outcomes for hitters. I would love to see his spring training stats translate to the lineup, but it’s hard to withstand any slow spells for a guy without a glove. 

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ROUND 21

Best: OF Tommy Pham CIN (Angry Pirates) – I always have a soft spot for Pham, but I LOVE him in Cincinnati. Power, speed, patience combos like this aren’t typically found in the 21st. 

Runner-Up: RP Corey Knebel PHI (Freedom) – I love this landing spot for Knebel and think he has as much a shot to accumulate 40 S+H as any pitcher. 

Worst: C Travis Darnaud ATL (Grit B&B) – The days of him as an uber prospect have long past and left a total of one season with a line of at least 50/15/50/0/.300. It’s time to come to terms that he’s 33 and just kinda sucks most of the time. 

Runner-Up: RP David Bednar PIT (Ex-Presidents) – If you’re not going to wait to pick up a bullpen until after the draft it’s important to at least pick up RPs on teams that win games. S+H can’t happen when there isn’t a lead to save or hold. 

X-Factor: OF Ian Happ CHC (Moose) – The only thing assured in life is that Ian Happ will play like a top 20 player for 200 abs out of the season and a minor league bench player for 200 more abs, with another 200 abs of mediocrity in between. 

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ROUND 22

Best: SP Grayson Rodriguez BAL (Ex-Presidents) – Now this is an effective use of an NA spot. Pretty sure he’s at least an SP4 as soon as he’s up, which shouldn’t be long.  

Runner-Up: SS Bryson Stott PHI (Angry Pirates) – Hard to say how much he’ll play, but Bohm and Didi aren’t so entrenched that he can’t overtake either of them with solid play. This isn’t a star, but the profile is one of a top 15 fantasy player at his position at peak. Maybe it starts sooner rather than later? 

Worst: 2B Vidal Brujan TB (Ring) – Like the player, hate the team. Given his issues as a hitter, I’m not sure how he ever carves out regular time at 2B or OF in TB, so it’s a wasted pick essentially. The talent is there, but I don’t see the opportunity coming. 

Runner-Up: RP Gregory Soto DET (One Nut) – One of those picks that makes sense in a traditional Saves league, but here it looks like you’re just baking in a blow up or two per week. There were plenty of safer options out there. 

X-Factor: SP Andrew Heaney LAD (One Nut) – I swore off him this year, even though his team situation couldn’t be much better. He has just been so prone to the occasional, completely unpredictable blowup, that I don’t have the stomach for it anymore. But he still has the stuff and control.

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ROUND 23 

Best: 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn CHW (Freedom) – Man, Larussa is the freaking worst. I hate everything about how he’s been used. Hopefully he settles into a regular position now, but it’s hard to be confident.

Runner-Up: SP Garret Whitlock BOS (Cowhide) – Every year, one player reminds us that we should draft for talent, not position. Whitlock may be the guy this year.

Worst: SP Domingo German NYY (Napalm) – I can’t wait to pick him up off the wire for a spot start in August and hate myself for doing so. 

Runner-Up: C Joey Bart SF (Ex-President) – Know what your immense dearth of starting pitching didn't need at this point in the draft? A third catcher. 

X-Factor: 2B Cavan Biggio TOR (Napalm) – I don’t know what to think of this guy anymore. He looked like a surefire 80/20/80/20/.360 guy a year ago and now I’m not even sure he plays every day. I’d love for him to get a shot, but hard to argue with the reasoning not to let him. 

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ROUND 24 

Best: Everything JED - Jed traded so much capital to improve keepers and he really made the most of the picks he got sent back in return:

SS Anthony Volpe NYY (Donkey) – Given Yahoo’s rigid structure, the NA spot really needs to be dedicated to someone you think you can put right into your lineup once they’re up. Volpe may be the best option in baseball given his lack of proximity but potential promise for late season or next. 

OF Jesus Sanchez MIA (Donkey) – Sanchez had more ups than downs last year after he crushed the minors most of last year. He has no one keeping him from full time ABs and the hard hit data shows he could blossom. 

2B Kolten Wong MIL (Donkey) – MIL has a good lineup and Wong is right on top of it, making this pick 100/15/60/20/.340 in the bank. I loved this pick. 

OF Andrew McCutchen (Donkey) – What did Cutch ever do to deserve this kind of treatment? Just give you 78/27/80/6/.334 and zero reason to think he can’t do it again. Shame on us all!

Worst: Everyone who isn’t JED. 

X-Factor: SP Nick Martinez SD (Moose) – He crushed overseas and add like 4 mph since he couldn’t cut it on the Rangers staff a few years ago. He wouldn’t be the first player to transform overseas, so sign me up as interested in what he’s bringing back to the states.  

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2022 H&T Pre-Draft Rankings

 

Pre-Draft Rankings! Unlike previous years where I graded each keeper individually, I've simply used Yahoo's rankings to grade the keepers here. Much to my dismay, the rankings didn't like me swapping Trout for JRod and they definitely didn't like Tatis' injury (dropped from #1 to #102).  But this is probably a pretty accurate ranking of the opportunities for the 2022 season at this point as Jason has 6 picks in the first two rounds and a very solid group of keepers to boot.  Obviously, Yahoo's grades don't factor in keeperability so any young players with questionable playing time will take a hit. 

Keepers ranked outside the top 100 included:

• Fernando Tatis Jr. 102
• Bobby Witt Jr. 103
• Rhys Hoskins 108
• Max Muncy 114
• Pablo López 124
• Clayton Kershaw 135
• Jarred Kelenic 146
• Joey Gallo 149
• Chris Sale 167
• Julio Rodriguez 296

BUT that's why they play the games, so they say...

DRAFT is Monday 4/4, promptly at 830 pm. We really can't draft any later than that as we still need time for the first round of waivers, which I've temporarily set at one day (usually two days). I will turn it back after the first round. This will mean you will want to place waiver claims on Tuesday after the draft, which will process Wednesday. Then it'll be open season on the free agents in time for opening day on Thursday. 

Gibby has graciously set up a Zoom for the draft. This was a lot of fun last year so try to make it this year if you can

Join Zoom Meeting
https://success.zoom.us/j/93683840983?pwd=ZDcxY3cxOHB0YkQ4YlZueE1KMEUzZz09

Meeting ID: 936 8384 0983
Passcode: 293027
One tap mobile
+16468769923,,93683840983# US (New York)
+16699006833,,93683840983# US (San Jose)

High & Tight Update

 

Its week 16 and we are just a week and a half from the start of the open trading period, so I thought it would be a good time to do an update on the league. It's been amazing to have a pretty normal season. COVID is still here, but it hasn't shut down teams for weeks at a time and hopefully you too have been able to catch a live game this season. Hopefully collective bargaining doesn't cause a hiccup in 2022 because that could be disastrous for long-term interest in MLB.  

It's really been a great season with some amazing, historical performances - whether it s the record number of no hitters, Shohei Fever, or the emergence of young players and surprises like Adolis Garcia. Doesn't hurt that the Sox are amazing and a lot of fun to watch. What a difference a year makes.

Fees 

Most people have not paid. So far, Dave and Chad are all set. Please everyone else pay via Paypal in the next week or so - adrok71@yahoo.com. 

Everyone owes $100 beside Gibby ($130) and Jason ($115) due to last and second to last place finishes in 2020.

Rankings 

Sorry for the lack of Real Rankings. It's been particularly challenging to find time for everything Id like to. I hope that will change before next season. 

See above. There's some very interesting and considerable differences between performance and their place in the actual standings. The most prominent is Jason, who is on the outside looking in at the playoffs right now, but who has produced the second best stats of any team. That's quite a bit of bad luck. This stuff tends to even out over the course of a season, but we have had teams be way off for one reason or another. Chad also has a much worse record than performance suggests. That is a little more palatable when you look at the average performance in total as Chad is the first in a massive group of teams comprising half the league with an average between 6.0 and 6.9. This has played out in real life too as the standings behind Montezumas has fluctuated considerably all season. 

So, who is selling and who is buying? Gibby has been working on his rebuild for a while now and has accumulated a nice group of young players. Dagan is talking deals too. Shomphe is in the middle of building a house and selling a house with 4 kids, but seems primed to go into rebuild mode too when trading opens up. Everyone else has a shot to be in the top 8. But open trading can be appealing.

Open Trading

The trade deadline is Thurs 8/19. I have no clue why I only had Thursdays as options, but that's what we have (it's usually a Sunday) and I can't change it. So that mean open trading period start on Thurs 8/5 at 12:01 am -- 10 days from now.

Reminder: "The open trading period will take place two weeks prior to the trading deadline, when teams may trade up to two future picks in Rounds 7-10. There is no limit on the number of picks a team may receive."

If you're selling a top performer, it may behoove you to announce on Slack or on the Yahoo message board.

Chat Forums

Will be interested in looking at changing the messaging platforms. I have two leagues that use GroupMe and they tend to be a lot more active. It's a bit more logical and user friendly than Slack I think, but would be interest in hearing others opinions. 

Payout

Regular season champion: 25% of total prize pool

Playoff champion: 50% of total prize pool

2nd place (playoffs):  25% of total prize pool

2nd place (regular season):   $100

Reminders

Please continue to playout the season even after Open Trading. If you see someone not setting lineups on a regular basis, please reach out. Repeat offenders will be fined. 

We are limited to 60 free agent/wire pickups during the regular season. Some people are getting up there, so plan accordingly. You get 3 pickups/week during the playoffs. 

Trades are processed the morning after they are executed by the teams. I cannot execute a trade immediately, even if you ask nice. 

2021 Draft Review

Round 7

Best: OF Randy Arozarena TB (Moose) – I know everyone was focused on starting pitching, but this is a unique young talented prospect with playing time that you rarely find available in the draft. His historic postseason performance alone changed him from waiver wire fodder and a late pick to a legend and a surefire keeper for years to come.

Runner-up: SP Zac Gallen ARI (Donkey) – Hindsight is 20/20 and this was a highly unusual circumstance given how little we know of the injury at the time, but gotta give props to Jed for taking a risk. Looks like it will payoff handsomely, possibly for years to come.

Worst: OF Nick Castellanos CIN (One Nut) – Nit picky as most first rounders were chalk, but this is an example of when Yahoo rankings aren’t quite accurate. At 29, with a lifetime 162-game average of 77/23/85/2/.324, Casty doesn’t have any standout skills and doesn’t even walk at a good rate or contribute to SBs. Give me Gallo’s career 89/41/89/7/.330 at two years younger and a round later… or Sano… or Franmil… or Kepler…

Runner-up:  SP Zach Wheeler PHI (Cowhide) – I don’t really have a problem here; he’s just the worst of the first round SPs. I’d like him a lot more if his K/9 didn’t drop to 6.7 last year, but for someone with a lot of high picks it makes sense for Dave to start with stability.

X Factor:  3B Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT (Montezumas) – When I traded into the first, I was fully planning to take an SP, but everyone I was considering was taken. Hayes reminds me a bit of Lindor, who was supposedly a defense-first prospect, then came up and never stopped hitting. The 2020 production in 24 games amounts to a 107/32/69/6/.442 season. That’s a pretty small sample, but not insignificant. Unfortunately he’s on PIT too. Lots of risk here.

 

Round 8

Best: OF Joey Gallo TEX (Montezumas) – The overall body of work in 2020 wasn’t great, but it’s important to view all 2020 stats in the context provided. When you take 2019-20 rate of production over 600 abs, it’s a superb 88/37/86/7/.351 line. And he’s still just 27! If the dead ball is real, mashers may be super valuable again.

Runner-up: UT Nelson Cruz MIN (Donkey) – In every sport, there are examples of players who defy age—and Cruz’s job is cushier than most of them.  Even at 40, sitting on the bench and getting up five times to crush balls and jot around the bags isn’t going to cause a lot of strain.  The age risk is well worth this draft slot, especially when he has been an automatic 90/40/100/.360 the last SEVEN seasons.

Worst: SP Dinelson Lamet SD (Ex-Presidents) – Elbow issues that started a year ago and carried into the next season? That’s a hard pass for me, no matter how talented he is.

Runner-up: SP Chris Paddack SD (S. Napalm) – There were some warts that were hidden in the impressive numbers during his breakout 2019 campaign that became apparent last year. The hype hasn’t died down enough, so the draft slot may be warranted but the fact that he has never developed a quality third pitch is a big concern. Though I can’t blame anyone for looking for SP upside.

X-Factor:  SP Julio Urias LAS (Montezumas) – Speaking of SP upside… it’s a lot easier to take chances when you have four of the top 30 picks. Still, for all of the hype (I mean “Mexican King Felix” was supposed to be a complement when he first came around), Urias’ production is ho hum with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.45/1.24 in his career. Just 24 and healthy with no inning limit, it’s time to see where this goes.

 

Round 9

Best:  SP Joe Musgrove SD (Grit B&B) – One of the underlying stats I always like to look at is K-BB% as it is hard to disguise the frequency in which a players strikes out or walks batters. BUT it can be deceiving if the K rate is insane as it allows for a strong K-BB even with an equally extreme walk rate. Of the FA starters available, the SPs that had a K% of at least 24.0% and a walk rate below 6.5% included Musgrove, all the TJS stars, Paddack, and Jordan Montgomery. He’s just 28 and this could be the season it all comes together.

Runner-up:  SP Pablo Lopez MIA (Cowhide) – Pablo has quietly become a burgeoning ace. His K upside has always been questionable, but he added a fifth legit pitch in the last year and has never struggled in four seasons – despite only just turning 25 a few weeks ago. At worst he’s a solid SP4. At best, he’s an ace.

Worst: C Yasmani Grandal CHW (Knuckle) – As a guy who holds off drafting a catcher until the late rounds or sometimes not at all, I can’t underwrite spending a top pick on a catcher under normal circumstances– even one as good as Grandal.  But when you’ve already kept a catcher, this is just confusing.

Runner-up: OF Teoscar Hernandez TOR (Ring) – This presents a somewhat hypocritical evaluation as I was both surprised to see TScar last this long and even more surprised to see the ever-OBP-conscious Dagan select him. With a lifetime 32% K rate, TScar’s consistent.230/.300 production in every seasons preceding 2020, tendency for monumental streakiness, and being one (cheap) cog in a crowded lineup of emerging hitters sounds like a lesson in frustration.

X-Factor: SP Lance McCullers HOU (One Nut) – Can you believe he’s just 27? Can you believe he has averaged 26.5% K rate and 11.9% SwStr% (swinging strike percentage) during his career? Can you believe he’s never thrown more than 129 innings in a season? Good spot to take him on a deep roster, but who knows if he’ll be available late in the season.

B-Factor(?): OF Byron Buxton MIN (S. Naplam) – After years of including him in this write up (and being correct each time), it seems wrong to not include him, so he gets his own category.  As I mentioned during the draft Buxton’s 2019-20 rates translate to an insane 93/32/102/22…. and .299. So, that’s a legit 4-cat stud, but the OBP can’t be ignored --- because it is not just a category he doesn’t contribute to, he actually hurts you,  Making him more like a 3.5-cat stud.  Like any other player that can’t take a base or hit for high average (Sal Perez, for example), you just need to balance your roster accordingly. With Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout on roster and sporting the most consistent annual .400+ OBPs in the league, I will underwrite the selection for this specific roster. My argument was always that his approach would prevent him from being “the next Trout” in the OBP leagues we roll, and that remains the case. I think he’d be better in the 12-13^th round. For the record, I think Lourdes Gurriel, Franmil Reyes, Dominic Smith, and Trey Mancini will be more valuable overall. BUT for what it’s worth, I don’t hate the pick.

 

Round 10

Best: 3B Alex Bohm PHI (S. Napalm) – There is a high correlation between players with great pedigree who succeed immediately upon being called up and long-term, viable annual keepers. Bohm is an athletic corner infielder with pop and surprising speed that I thought would be taken no later than the second round.

Runner-up:  OF Victor Robles WAS (Grit B&B) – Often people are too early on players and then completely give up on them as players too early. Robles has always had great pedigree, but his initial struggles in the bigs were predictable given the obvious holes in his approach. With a little more patience and placement at the top of a pretty good Nats lineup, this could be the last year he is available to be drafted for quite a while.

Worst: SP Chris Sale BOS (Brokeback) – I mean, I get it, the SP run was insane.  But this is Round 10! Many legit stars have been traded for 10^th rounders in this league.  Instead of a great one, Watson got a big name who may be back in June but likely won’t be back to his normal self until August – plenty of time to fall our of the playoff race completely.

Runner-up: SP Mike Soroka ATL (S. Napalm) – Sort of the same deal, except the injury and the upside is less extreme. Soroka is a rates-only guy, so you’re immediately down to 3 categories of real contribution and the Braves are going to take their time getting him back. Risk not worth the reward.

X-Factor: SP Tyler Mahle CIN (Angry Pirates) – A lot of industry people love Mahle and expect him to blow up this year, despite middling results most of his career.  But he’s just 25 years old and with a 25% K rate and decent walk rate, there reason to be excited. Still would’ve liked him a lot more a few rounds later.

 

Round 11

Best:  OF Franmil Reyes CLE (Grit B&B) – So much of fantasy baseball drafting is knowing when to zig when others are zagging. There were a lot of third and fourth tier SPs going around this time, but Shomphe went with the best player available and got a great one. No one knows how the dead ball will affect players, but we know it won’t impact Franimal and his 115 mph max exit velocity. The OF eligibility in Yahoo and an improving 9% walk rate, this is a legit four-cat player with upside.

Runner-up: SP Zach Eflin PHI (Freedom) – Eflin is an emerging SP that has a solid repertoire which have contributed to a serviceable middle-of-the rotation type.  Just 26, minor improvements in K and BB rates could pull him from the mid tier to the top tier.  

Worst: RP Liam Hendricks CHW (Freedom) – Sorry Hunt, it’s tradition. First RP selected = worst pick of the round. Sure he’s great, elite even. But in a S+H league, with everyone rostering 7-10 SPs, his Ks have a minimal impact on week-to-week production. The impact on rates is also low given that RPs only have 20-30% of the innings that a traditional starter has. So you’re looking in total at about two categories of contribution total. And then you have to consider the value of the replacement level player for the S+H category.  Looking at S+H leaders the last two seasons, you don’t have to go far to find a top contributor who didn’t get any saves at all.  Hendricks’ top setup guy the last couple seasons. Jake Diekman, had 44 SH in 2019-20 vs. 47 for Hendricks – and he was a FA after the draft.

Runner-up: 1B Andrew Vaughn CHW (Montezumas) –  Vaughn has tons of upside in an OBP league, but power might be just OK and it’s possible he’s just a Hosmer type. Eloy clarified the playing time issue I think. With OF eligibility on the way, he could be valuable. But Dom Smith was waiting there with both eligibilities and less risk, so this was a stupid pick.  

X-Factor: UT Shohei Ohtani LAA (B) (Tomahawk) – I honestly don’t know what to do with this guy in Yahoo leagues. Is he getting full-time ABs this season or not? His 162-game average is top tier, but not realistic. If he’s part time, it’s hard to dedicate a valuable bench spot to a part-time UTIL-only. But I fully admit I could be completely wrong here.

 

Round 12

Best:  1B/OF Dom Smith NYM (Freedom) – Probably wouldn’t have fallen this far if the universal DH was still available, but I think he still plays every day and produces like a keeper for next year. Just 25, his production over the last two seasons amounts to 94/32/102/2/.366 over 600 abs. Many will regret not jumping on this slide earlier.

Runner-up:  SP John Means BAL (Cowhide) – The surface level stats were nothing to write home about last season and his xFIP and SIERA were pretty much rubbish too. But there was a clear improvement over the course of the season in 2020, which followed a strong 2019 debut, so the 26 yo could be some minor adjustments away from a strong SP3 option.  At this point in the draft, is gold – and to Dave, with his draftboard – it’s just gravy.

Worst: C/OF Daulton Varsho ARI (Cowhide) – While I don’t blame Dave for looking for upside from the C position and perhaps find an advantage with an eventual C-eligible bench bat, Varsho sucked last year and then he sucked in the spring. Would’ve been better off getting a great RP to finish up the Cowhide draft and getting a waiver wire NA because Varsho probably wouldn’t have been drafted.

Runner-up: OF Jarren Duran BOS (Ring) – I mean, I like him and everything, but jeez.  Maybe he gets called up and maybe he shows a lot more power than he did in the minors and maybe a better walk rate… but I’m pretty sure he could’ve been had much later.

X-Factor:  OF Kyle Lewis SEA (S. Napalm) – It was a tale of two halves for Lewis last season, who came out like gangbusters and then fell flat. It’s definitely worthwhile to see which one shows up, but that M’s outfield is interesting. If Lewis starts cold, he could be waving at Jarred Kelenic on his way down to Tacoma to “work on things.”

 

Round 13

Best: OF Jesse Winker CIN (Ex-Presidents) – It’s sometimes hard to gauge Winker because he seems to always be at varying levels of production and either being platooned or injured. But make no mistake about it, he’s young, powerful, excellent patience and a regular at the top of a good lineup.

Runner-up: SP Andrew Heaney LAA (Ring) – As previously noted, I’m a sucker for a good K-BB% guy and Heaney has always been that. Each season it seems feels like a true ace season is coming, but it always falls short, often because of injury. He’s prone to the occasional blow-up, but the skillset is better than many SPs going before him.

Worst: RP Josh Hader MIL (S. Napalm) – Yeah, still don’t like it. Interesting that it’s another example of a closer whose setup guy was actually more valuable last year and could’ve been had later in the draft.

Runner-up: 1B Bobby Dalbec BOS (One Nut) – I love Bobby. He’s fun to watch and I have no doubt there’s success in his future. But a steady stream of big league pitches getting acquainted with the massive holes in his swing (42.4% K rate in 23 games last season) is going to create a massive OBP hole in the lineup.

X-Factor: SP Framber Valdez HOU (One Nut) – It was hard to know where Valdez was heading at this point in the season, but it sounds like he could be back from a broken finger in short order. He made WAY more sense than the TJS guys at this point in the draft and is a legit SP4 with SP2 upside.

 

Round 14

Best: TIE SP Christian Javier HOU (Moose) & SP Freddy Peralta MIL (Montezumas) – Tie here because it’s basically the same description. At this point in the draft, both these players have the same strengths and weaknesses: phenomenal K upside & starting jobs/lacking third quality pitch & questionable control. But it made perfect sense at this point in the draft and is a nice balance of risk vs. reward.

Runner-up: OF Max Kepler MIN (Donkey) – I know 2020 was a let down coming off 2019 (98/36/90/1/.336), but there’s legit talent that lessens the likelihood that the season was a  huge outlier. Savvy pick by Jed.

Worst: SP Ryan Yarborough TB (Ring) – The mehness of Yarborough just is too overwhelming. I mean, he’s fine. He’s just… meh.

Runner-up: SP Shohei Ohtani LAA (P) (Angry) – Again, I admittedly don’t know what to do here. It was a pretty good round for selections, so don’t take it personally. I just always look at him and am never able to pull the trigger. This season thought, I’d prefer the hitter Ohtani by quite a bit.

X-Factor: SP Trevor Rogers MIA (Moose) – Rogers is one of those players that fell short of most 12- and 14-team short lists, but turned heads with the statement in the spring. He was striking out guys all over the place and finds himself in a great situation to thrive and provide immediate value. But it was also spring and he was always just a good prospect, so he could be waiver wire fodder shortly.  I did want him though.

 

Round 15

Best:  1B Miguel Sano MIN (Montezuma’s) – Little Miggy has been a keeper for a while, so to see him slide to this point was quite surprising in an OBP league.  The last two season his rates amount to 100/44/97/0/.325. With 3B eligibility in Yahoo, he’s even more yummy.

Runner-up: 3B Ryan McMahon (Montezuma’s) – It’s always hard to grade my own drafts, but I sure did like my round 15. McMahon is finally going to get full time run at Coors and has shown 80/30/90/5/.330 potential in the past, so this was a great grab at this point.

Worst: OF Joc Pederson CHC (Tomahawk) – I’ve been there and I can see the appeal, but having lived through Joc seasons a few times, I’ve given up hope.  He is never ever going to hit lefties. It doesn’t matter if he’s going to be in the lineup every day. He’s had 356 at bats to show he can produce and it’s just pathetic .188/.261/.303.  Like Rafael Belliard territory. Sure, platoon him, but he’s taking up a spot that could be filled by someone offering more upside at this point in the draft.

Runner-up: SP Brady Singer KC (Grit B&B) – The control just isn’t there and I’m not sure it’s going to improve quickly at 23 yo. Stuff is just OK. Seems destined for frustration.

X-Factor: SP Robbie Ray TOR (Freedom) – SPEAKING of frustration… there is no greater dispersion between potential outcomes of any player in major league history than Robbie Freaking Ray. But with the consistent velocity throughout the spring, there is at least hope that we’ll see the pitcher that has achieved 200+ Ks in a season three times, despite never throwing more than 175 innings.

 

Round 16

Best: OF Dylan Carlson STL (S. Naplam) – My pick of the draft. Really, I thought he’d go much sooner given the pedigree and playing time.  I can see why he slid. He did not impress at all in his first go round last season, but he went back down and came up a different player in the playoffs. He displayed much better patience – the kind he showed throughout the minors – and could very well be 80/20/80/20/.340 guy this season, with the potential to add 10s to each of those season long totals in short order.

Runner-up: SP Yusei Kikuchi SEA (Freedom) – What a strange draft. It’s really hard finding upside at this point, and on the surface, Kikuchi doesn’t have the 2020 stats to make him even a little interesting. BUT velocity gains are one of the most critical stats when looking for emerging players. And he’s been consistently higher. It’s clear there is no playbook when it comes to pitchers coming to the majors from Asia, so the crap we’ve experienced thus far could just be a blip at the start of a decent career.

Worst: SP Carlos Rodon CHW (One Nut) – With a career walk rate of 10.0% and a long history of injuries, I’m quite confident Rodon will forever be a big name with bad results.

Runner-up: SP Mike Minor KC (Moose) – Star prospect > struggling SP > SP star > Injured > star reliever > decent SP > keeper SP > junk SP, Mike Minor is a game of fantasy Russian Roulette.

X-Factor:  OF Nick Senzel CIN (Ring) – I’m not sure he’s allowed to be an X factor any more after this season, so he better produce. There’s a 90/20/80/20/.350 bat there somewhere, but we thought that about David Dahl too.

 

Round 17

Best:  OF Brandon Nimmo NYM (Knuckle) – Nimmo is criminally underrated and, unlike Joc, actually has a fighting chance against lefties (.248/.367/.405), so there is a strong case to never platoon him. One of the few players that could legitimately average .400 OBP for his career and chip in in all the other categories too.

Runner-up: SP Taijuan Walker NYM (Knuckle) – Given the amount of SPs that are being taken as longshot, how did a 28 year-old with great pedigree coming off a 2.70/1.16 season with 8.4 K/9 slip like this?

Worst: SP Brad Keller KC (Grit B&B) – Apparently we’re just on a run of barf-inducing KC pitchers the last three rounds. Remember K-BB%? 17.0 K% and 9.4 BB% is waaaaay too fucking close.

Runner-up: SP AJ Puk OAK (Brokeback) – I like him, but just not this year. He’s going to get dicked around between SP and RP and minors, so he’s hardly worth rostering until he settles.

X-Factor: SP Casey Mize DET (Ring) – There really wasn’t much to like about what he did last year, but that’s why rookie pitchers are a poor investment 90% of the time. But this pedigree is too good to ignore and one year he’s going to blow up. Might as well see if this is the year.

 

Round 18

Best: 1B/3B/OF Hunter Dozier KC (Ex-Presidents) – Under the radar, but just solid all around contributor. You can count on 75/25/75/5/.340 with lots of position eligibility and potential for more. Not sexy, but solid.

Runner-up: 1B Eric Hosmer SD (Moose) – There’s some reason to believe Hos’ power improvements were real last year and that he’s not just a modern day Mark Grace. Hitting in the heart of the SD lineup, it’s at least an automatic 90 RBIs and a great piece to add to a solid lineup at this point in the draft.

Worst: SP David Price LAD (Brokeback) – It was clear before the draft that Price was heading to the bullpen. Maybe he finds his way back to the rotation eventually, but it will probably be on a different fantasy team.

Runner-up: SP Michael Kopech CHW (S. Napalm) – Nothing wrong with the skills, but this guy has a long history of non-baseball related issues even before the BoSox drafted him. Doesn’t sound like sitting out last year really had anything to do with COVID and his passion for the game has long been questioned. As a glorified reliever at this point, not really interested in anything other than a late flier.

X-Factor: 1B Rowdy Tellez TOR (Freedom) – With steadily improving K rates and big power/patience, I’m a big Rowdy guy and am hoping this big guy gets Rowdy this season. But it is a super crowded lineupand he has the least impressive resume of the bunch, so ABs this season could be as hard to find as his actual abs are hard to find underneath that fluff.

 

Round 19

Best: SP Matthew Boyd DET (Tomahawk) – For all of the risk people were willing to assume, why was no one all over a player who pumped out 238 Ks in 185 IP in 2019? He actually has really good command too. Not sure what happened last year, but he’s much better than that. Great move by Chad.

Runner-up: SP Jake Odorizzi HOU (Montezuma’s) – Again, there were a lot of risky picks well before this point in the draft. What’s wrong with a 31 yo with a 162-game average of 3.95/1.24 and 175 Ks? Perfect SP5 on a team that has him as an SP9.

Worst: SP/RP Carlos Martinez STL (S. Naplam) – It would be helpful for everyone if C-Mart just changed his name completely at this point. He’s not a top shelf young flame thrower anymore – he’s either an RP with a control problem or an SP that can’t make it 5 innings.

Runner-up: OF Lorenzo Cain MIL (Donkey) – Nothing wrong with the pick at this point, just calling my shot that a 35 yo that just sat out a season won’t be bouncing back to his old form again.

X-Factor:  SP Tony Gonsolin LAD (Tomahawk) – I think Gonsolin is a top 75 pitcher in the league, but he’s a Dodger and that means his role will be in a state of flux. If you can stomach the long relief for a while, at some point he will be performing at an SP4 level for an SP8 cost.

 

Round 20

Best: RP Ryan Pressly HOU (Brokeback) – A lot of RPs were taken at this point and Watson somehow stole a top 5 RP late.

Runner-up: OF Jo Adell LAA (S. Napalm) – Looking at minor league BB/K rates can be one of the most instructive ways of determining which players come up an immediately succeed. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis’s numbers were insane. Adell’s were not, so it’s not surprising at all that he came up and whiffed 40% of the time. He’s gonna be a good one at some point, and it may not happen this year, but he’ll get a chance – and there’s nothing more you could ask from your NA spot.

Worst: SP Mike Clevinger SD (S. Napalm) – It’s one thing to draft a TJS guy coming back this season. It’s another thing to draft someone that is going to need to come back next season as a keeper to be of any value and will have to occupy an IL slot all year. He’s not a spring chicken either, so this is a wasted pick in my mind.

Runner-up:  SP Tanner Houck BOS (Ring) – I actually like what I’ve seen from majors Houck quite a bit, but minors Houck walked 11% of the batters he faced in the minors. That went down to 3.8% in the cup of coffee last year. Walk rates don’t tend to improve as you face better hitters, so….

X-Factor: RP Amir Garrett CIN (S. Napalm) – There’s a lot to like about this live arm (struck out all 9 batters he faced in Spring training), but the RP situation in CIN is a bit muddied. Still, I could see him being a top 5 RP for years to come.

 

Round 21

Best: RP Matt Barnes BOS (Moose) – He’s always been a great talent. This year he’s got less competition for the closer role and he’s about to become a FA. Big season on the way.

Runner-up: SS Willi Castro DET (Grit B&B) – Admittedly didn’t know much about Willi last year, but he quietly put together rates that amount to a 75/20/75/10/.340 hitter. You’ll take that all day at this point in the draft… even if he’s a Tiger.

Worst: SP John Gant STL (Moose) – There is nothing about this profile (28 yo, career 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 30 games started, 106 games relieving) that says he should anywhere near a fantasy roster.

Runner-up: RP Pete Fairbanks TB (Cowhide) – Not a whole lot of issues with picks in this round, I just don’t have Fairbanks very high on my list due to control issues and TB being shartwaffles when it comes to defined bullpen roles. 

X-Factor:  SP/RP Tejay Antone CIN (Tomahawk) – See Gonsolin, Tony. (Picking great pitchers with uncertain roles is a great way to attack this part of the draft.)

 

Round 22

Best: RP Jordan Hicks STL (Knuckle) – Something about a pitcher that can sling 103 mph with consistency and accuracy that just gets the juices flowing. The role may be a little undefined initially, but make no mistake, he’s the RP to own in STL.

Runner-up: 1B Jared Walsh LAA (Ring) – There’s a lot to like about what Walsh did in his cup of coffee last year, which followed a tea cup in 2019. All told, his 162-game average is 73/29/89/0/.321, but he’s 27 with upside. Playing time is a bit of a concern with Ohtani and Pujols around, but talent typically wins out.

Worst: OF JD Davis NYM (Freedom) – Just never been that interested in him (162ga is 67/20/54/2/.348) and now he’s in a crowded lineup with no DH and sucks hard at defense. Seems destined for the waivers.

Runner-up: RP Lucas Sims CIN (Ex-Presidents) – Fine with the talent and role, but a known injury is something I try to avoid early on.

X-Factor: SS Willy Adames TB (Freedom) – Poor Willy. The second he came up and couldn’t follow up on his great rookie season, people started going ga-ga over Wander. Adames is just 25 and he’s battled some injuries, but is fully capable of a 80/25/80/10/.330 season, and maybe much more.

 

Round 23

Best: - RP Drew Pomeranz SD (Tomahawk) – He’s a top 10 RP in S+H leagues and its baffling he dropped this far.

Runner-up: SP Jose Quintana LAA (S. Napalm) – One of my fantasy favorites over the years. I either drafted him or traded for him almost every year in his prime due to strong not great Ks and consistent rates. Injuries and velocity concerns have caught up, but he was slinging solid in spring.

Worst: RP Joakim Soria ARI (Grit B&B) – In S+H leagues, best thing to do is go for talent and good teams. Soria is old, had a poor spring, and is an Arizona D-bag.

Runner-up: RP Richard Rodriguez PIT (Brokeback) – He’s pretty good, but you need to win to get a S+H... and this may be the worst roster I’ve ever seen.  Best hope will be if he gets traded to a contender, but he’ll probably be dropped by then.

X-Factor: OF Sam Hilliard COL (Brokeback) – Just look at the 2019 AAA line and dream: 109/35/101/22/.335… now wake up and realize COL is where young fringy talent goes to DIE!

 

Round 24

Best: RP Hector Neris PH (Brokeback) – Philly is going to be good and even if we didn’t know for sure Neris was the closer, he’s the best reliever there and was bound to be a solid RP in this league. Could’ve been drafted 5 rounds prior and made sense.

Runner-up: SP Nick Pivetta BOS (Angry) – Love this because there’s no risk, but a ton of upside. Pivetta has a great repertoire that hasn’t quite translated to sustained success but has shown up big in games along the way.

Worst: C Adley Rutschman BAL (S. Napalm) – The only thing worse than wasting an NA slot on a rookie catcher is not having an NA spot open, forcing you to waste a bench spot on him.

Runner-up: SP Randy Dobnak MIN (Freedom) – Dobber is a perfectly fine piece for a major league club, but a 5.7 K/9 ain’t helping no one in fantasy.

X-Factor: SP Logan Gilbert SEA (Tomahawk) – If willingness to take a walk is a harbinger of success for young hitterw, unwillingness to give up a walk is one for young pitchers. The stuff is something less than elite, but Gilbert’s K rates ranged from 29-43% in his three minor league season, while his walk rate has remained below 8%. This is a pitcher that could come up and contribute immediately on a team with some questionable rotation members.