2020: The First Trimester

I didn’t get a chance to do a draft review this year – it’s the busiest time of year for me and we didn’t have much time between the draft and the start of the season – and we also don’t have Real Rankings, which are essentially Roto Rankings. But I did want to do an update on the league action and changes we implemented.

Overall, its important not to pay to close to the rankings at this point. By its nature Roto leagues fluctuate a lot early on given how close teams are in individual categories. One week focusing on S+H can add 10 points to your overall score in a week’s time. Pay closer attention to the numbers relative to the teams ahead and you’ll find reason for optimism. There’s still a lot of production to be head. Remember, in a normal season, it’d only be the beginning of May.  My team was 10^th overall not long ago and hit a heater, but could easily fall again. Looking at the rosters, there’s clearly no dominant team at this point.

• Looks like the Reds may be able to start soon and we will have a full slate of active teams for the first time since the beginning of the season. Hopefully that’s the last time we have to deal with prolonged absences. In the meantime, Cards and Marlins are going to play plenty of double headers to try to make up for the lost games.
• Closers are fun huh? Hopefully you haven’t noticed the craziness that has occurred. Chapman, Kimbrel, Osuna, Yates, Hand, Diaz, Giles, Declerc, Robles, Doolittle… yeah S+H is the way to go.
• Overall, Roto is great for showing teams who are producing the most over all categories, which is sort of the point. But you definitely lose some of the excitement versus H2H. In a short season, I think it’s not going to get insurmountable for teams to recover into a top three position for for some time.
• We’ve had some trading with Gibby and Jason perhaps looking toward the future. It will be interesting to see how people deal with the lack of pick trades.  There’s a lot of big names and injuries to come that could make great assets to a team looking at 2021. Make sure to announce when you have something to offer teams.
• Remember you need to keep at least four of your original keepers for next season. I wonder if this is going to be a problem for people who want to trade. We could doing something like change the requirement to four keepers from 2020 must be kept, but it could be someone else’s keepers. Let me know what you think.
• Keep in mind Yahoo tracks or innings and game progress during the season so you can see how your team is trending in terms of meeting limits. So if it looks like you’re ahead 8 games for OF and down 10 games at catcher, it may be time for a roster adjustment.
• Not sure QS were as terribly difficult to find as we thought and Wins seems to be waste on middle relievers. Oh well.
• Those IL spots are coming in handy though. Jeez.
• Please don’t forget to pay if you haven’t already. Paypal is adrok71@Yahoo.com

 

TOP 25 PLAYERS

 

 

TEAM OVERVIEWS

1. MONTEZUMA’S REVENGE (Adam)

Keepers:  Make no mistake about it, the keepers are doing the heavy lifting here. Tatis, Trout, and Soto are absolutely monsters. The others have been solid as well.  Alonso has been off to a slow start, but still putting up good numbers, while MChapman and Scherzer have put up their typical numbers, albeit a little off.

Draft: Yikes. Pham (injured), Paxton (sucking), Boyd (REALLY sucking, dropped), Guirrel (sucking) were the first four picks. Marquez, IHapp, Senzel, Wheeler have been OK and look like nice parts, but picks 17-24 have all been dropped. For a team that is in first, the roster has had a lot of turnover since the draft.

Season: Started off slow with Soto down, but the Revenge have surged into first thanks to some (VERY) active management (56 moves) and some concentrated production. It may seem OK, but relying a few players can be dangerous. The normally reliable trade market will be much more challenging with no picks to deal. The lead is tenuous to say the least.

 

2. ANGRY PIRATES (Kyle)

Keepers:  A seemingly solid group has been very disappointing outside of Jose Ramirez and Luis Castillo, who have been even better than they were last year. Yelich, Altuve, Muncy, Soler have all been solid contributors, but not what Kyle would hope. Surprising given how well Kyle has done, but that’s because…

Draft:  Castellanos looks like a surfire keeper while Bundy and Fried have been insane. Urshela, Swanson, WMyers, and RNunez have all been great picks. Kyle has only made a handful of transactions thank to a really solid draft and a lot of luck with health.

Season:  Kyle came storming out of the gate and looked like he was going to runaway with it for little while, but things have slowed and a few of the under the radar guys have come back to earth. Unbelievably, with only six SPs and six RPs, Kyle is leading in wins and only middle in S+H. With only 8 moves, it might take some more adjustments to maintain.

 

3. DONKEY PUNCHERS (Jed)

Keepers:  The group entered the season without clear stars, but it’s been anything but. Blackmon Nola and Bauer have been some of the best players of the season, while Olson and Villar started slow but are now huge contributors in HR and SB. Meadows was probably the best keeper and he only just returned.

Draft: Carrasco and SGray are carrying this group. E-Rod in the second round hurts, TAnderson was hurt and Andrus and Reynolds both sucked and later picks (Joc, Yoenis, Didi, Carp) haven’t been helpful. That bullpen has been amazing though with Jensen, Britton, Bradley, Jimenez among the rare success stories. Spotty, but having top SPs is a huge benefit this season.

Season: Pitching is doing the work here as Jed is amazingly first or second in every category except wins. But HR, RBI and OBP are big holes and may need to be addressed at some point. Like Kyle, he has less than 10 transactions, so some tinkering might be in order.

 

4. COWHIDE JOYRIDE (Dave)

Keepers: Unlike most teams at the top, Dave is winning despite his keepers. Seager has been awesome, but Giancarlo (shock) hurt again and Machado just looks like a ho-hum corner infielder.  But the real hit is the almost zero production from Benintendi, Dahl, and Lux, who incredibly is still in the minors.

Draft: Despite early investment in closers and the first round flub in Kluber, he nailed Voit and Yaz, which is helping carry his hitting numbers. The pitching has lagged huge performances, but is full of solid contributors.

Season:  Dave didn’t invest heavily in starters but you’d never know it, as he’s leading in rates and doing solid in the other pitching stats. Active management has been key here, with Santander, Grossman, D’arnaud, Lester, Cobb and Rainey all big additions. Some refinement on pitching and production from the keeper hitters could put Dave over the top.

 

5. RING OF FIRE (Dagan)

Keepers: Like Dave, Dagan is producing despite his keepers. Story has been Story, which is amazing. But Goldy (Cards/COVID), Berrios and Ozuna (mediocre), Suarez (sucked), and Bryant (sucked)  are just not producing like you’d expect, and it’s held back the true potential of this team

Draft: To this point, Dagan has had the best draft. His first five picks Conforto, Maeda, Realmuto, Hendricks, ERosario have all been big contributors, while his sixth pick Hampson eventually started producing (after he was dropped). Civale has also been very good.  It’s hard for any team to say they draft this many assets in 2020.

Season: There’s some problem categories (SB, ERA, S+H), but Dagan has been solid overall. Given that his production has come from high draft picks and his keepers have underachieved thus far, the place in the standings seems more sticky and has potential to surge in the next two-thirds of the season.

 

6. KNUCKLE SANDWICH (Chris J)

Keepers:  Given that Whit has been one of the best players in baseball and was a consolation keeper, you’d expect Chris’ keepers to be flying high, but Torres has been one of the biggest disappointments while GSanchez has been his unpredictable self. Snell is only recently getting the leash taken off a bit and KTucker was always going to be a bit of a risk.  Kepler has been good, but the group has been disappointing to this point.

Draft:  The underproduction and injury of Morton has hurt what seemed like a great 1-2 punch of TB’s top SPs, but pitching has become a bit of an issue after Chris largely ignored the position in the draft, selecting RP/SP/Disappointments CMart and Yarborough and no one else until Fiers at the end of the draft.  Luckily Franimal is there and starting to turn it on, but overall it was a disappointing draft due to injury and surprise underperformance (Brantley, EE, Hand, Dejong, Kingery).

Season:  Given the underwhelming keeper production and difficult draft, it’s surprising Chris is so high in the standings. But as I say every year, in-season activity is by far the biggest difference maker. Chris has made 49 moves and is seeing guys like KSeager, Dylan Moore, and BSinger making a big difference.  If the healthy underperformers turn it around, his spot could rise quickly.  If not, it could go the other way.  A call to a pitcher-heavy team like the other Chris may balance this roster out.

 

7.  MOOSE IS LOOSE (Brian)

Keepers: Judge looked like he was just going crush his way through the league again, but hit a speed bump. Cruz is back to doing Cruz things, but SMarte and Bregman have only been OK and Stras and Bell have been dredful. Mixed bag here.

Draft: Highlighted by back to back eventual opt outers in Stroman and LCain, it’s been some tough luck for Brian.  Mercado, WCalhoun, and ARosario have underperformed despite being seemingly great picks at those spots.  Injuries have plagued the group too with Donaldson, Giles, Hill, Desclaf, Odorizzi all hung up for various periosd.  Biggio looks like a keeper though and Ryu has been solid.

Season: Despite the bad luck, Brian has reason to be optimistic. A healthy team and resurgent production from stars can rocket him up the standings in no time. He’s been active on the wire and has some of the season’s biggest surprises on the roster.  Plesac was a huge pickup and his demotion is a massive bummer as he was looking elite.  Look out for this team.

 

8. ANAL HERSHEISER (Justin)

Keepers: Given how elite they looked coming into the season, perhaps no team has suffered more from keeper underperformance than Justin. Arenado has only been good at home and Gallo has been decent, but Baez, Vlad, Eloy, and Buehler have been nowhere near what we’d expect. This is a group that had risks and streakiness, but enough solid upside to think this floor was not possible.

Draft: Lance Lynn has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and it seemed like Minor would make a strong 2-3 to go behind Buehler, but its been Keuchel and Duffy that have actually solidified the rotation a bit. Garver looks nothing like 2019 and Laureano has been solid, but not first round good. Meanwhile, the 11-14 picks of Manaea, Adell, WFranco, and MacMahon have disappointed.

Season: Justin has made some fine pickups with KLewis and DFLetcher early. With a solid staff and some sleeping monsters for keepers, the team could jump back into it quickly as that group is prone to hot streaks and can put up big numbers quickly.

 

9. THE EX-PRESIDENTS (Jeff)

Keepers: The tale of underperforming keepers continues. This flashy group of youngsters looked prime to emerge this season in a big way. While Bieber has been essentially the best player in baseball outside of Tatis, the rest outside have disappointed. But Flaherty just hasn’t played and Devers, Lindor and Paddock all seem primed to turn around in a hurry.

Draft:  Jeff started with a bang as Woodruff and Montas were excellent out the gate. Letting go of Winker and Verdugo look like mistakes in hindsight, but five steals from a backup catcher in Falafel and some slow starts from Contreras and Cutch give reason for optimism. Health has at least not been a problem and Mize could potentially be a big mid-round pickup now that he’s with the big team.

Season:  With only nine pitchers, Jeff has the most imbalance in the league in terms of size. But the talent is there to make up some of the difference.  Some slight adjustments and a surge of rebounding keeper has Jeff just steps away from being a top team.

 

 

10.  TOMAHAWK CHOPS (Chad)

Keepers: Unlike Jeff, nothing has been healthy for Chad. Acuna and Albies are on the shelf, but will hopefully be OK. Verlander seems to be a loss and Bichette looks like he could be gone for a while now too. Compound that with Clevinger being a D-bag and you have a token worst case scenario happening with Chad’s best players

Draft: Oh, it didn’t end there. Top three picks Mous and Yates were hurt as well, which makes me think first rounder Darvish might not be far away from a trip to the IL given his history. Midrounders Pearson, Edman, Canha, Musgrove have all disappointed as well. Grisham and Burnes are potential bright spots with bright futures though. Chad has rightfully saw the sense of urgency of the season and moved on from middling underperformers.

Season: For all his bad luck, Chad is in a great spot. The only nice thing about big disappointments like Clevinger and Verlander is they’re still assets and he’s turned them into Gallen, BLowe, Grienke, Hader and MKelly. Savvy. Mix in some great pickups like Winker, Nimmo and Adames, and, with a little health, Chad will be back in the top 5 in no time.

 

11. BROKEBACK MOUNDMEN (Watson)

Keepers:  For all of Watson’s luck healthwise, he’s had some unusual bad luck in that a lot of his players are hitting fine but the run production hasn’t been there. Turner has slowed on the basepaths for some reason and KMarte only has one homer and one steal. In fact, the team is last or second to last in R, HR, RBI but tops by far in OBP at .357. Highly unusual. One a bright note, Luis Robert looks like a five-cat stud in the making.

Draft: The early rounds really tripped up this roster as Schwarber in the first has not helped terribly and Ohtani and ROsuna are losses. Watson drafted a killer bullpen which is whey he’s crushing rates and S+H, but the starters are lacking/non-existent.

Season:  This is the most unusual roster out there with only 3 SPs, but the strategy could prove fruitful once the runs start being produced. Really though, take a look the season stats for the team. You’ll see lots of fine, healthy players getting on base plenty and only two players with double digit RBIs.  Just some early season weirdness that could change quickly with some refining, but Watson has only made one move so far.

 

12. GRIT BEER & BALLS (Shomphe)

Keepers:  If any team could benefit from some normalization of stats, its Shomphe. All the keepers Beliinger, Harper, Degrom, Cole, Corbin, Mondesi haven’t quite performed at the level we’d expect. This was one of the best groups heading into the season and they’re healthy, so that tells me this is going to change quickly.

Draft:  Like his keepers, Chris has a good group of veterans he’s waiting to come around, including CSantana, JAbreu, Escobar, and MadBum. Luzardo and May look like future studs and potential keepers. With solid guys like Yuli, Vazquez, and Melancon, there’s lots of good parts and talent here. Even if he left the draft early and autoed, this was a pretty solid group.

Season: This is the type of roster that could jump to the top spot in no time. To make gains in the SH category, it’s going to require some restructuring as its basically the opposite strategy as Watson. Pollock and Piscotty could be fine contributors too. Look out here.

 

13. ONE NUT WONDERS (Jason)

Keepers: Injuries to Yordan and Rendon, combined with Semien and JDM’s slow starts got Jason limping out of the gate. With no keeper SP, he really needed to nail his early SP picks and for the hitting to produce as his roster was seemingly stacked there, but it hasn’t quite gone as planned.

Draft: Jason invested heavily in starters after taking Correa #1, but Urias hasn’t quite been the next King Felix and Ray and Tanaka have been there normal unpredictable selves and Weaver has just been brutal.  BLowe in the 14^th was great pick and helped in the deal to get Verlander – a sign Jason is not overly optimistic on the season.  There’s still plenty to like here though and pieces that could be useful to a contending team. No draft pick trades makes that a little trickier, but there’s a lot of underperforming stars here. Buxton is still doing Buxtony things (like not getting on base), except he’s gone all Willy Mays Hayes and stopped stealing and focused on power.

Season: Verlander trade is a sign of Jason’s rare pessimism.  That is a big league lineup right there though and hitting alone could vault him into the middle ranking. A little pitching luck and there could be more here than Jason realizes.  Again, we’re only one-third through.

 

14. SEXUAL NAPALM (Gibby)

Keepers:  The group of keepers had high end potential going into the season, but it’s failing to produce that so far outside the Mookster. Moncada still looks great, but just that – not otherworldly like we all thought (no SBs). Springer is very capable, but slow to start. Robles was always one that was more tools than a finished product. Giolito has always been streaky. Soroka, well, ouchy.

Draft:  Grienke, Hader, and DJ Leh were a good start and they’ve all be jettisoned in trades from J-Rod, Clevinger and Verdugo. Polanco and McCuller and Dozier should all be serviceable parts, as well as Votto. But there were a lot of misses in the back half of the draft and between that and iffy keepers, there wasn’t much category juice to salvage the season.

Season:  Gibby is clearly moving on, but he’s not done. There’s still lots of useful parts and if Gibby stays active on the wire, there will be other players that emerge and prove to be chips that can help other teams competing now. An injured or opting out star could make 2021 look a lot brighter.