2018 Offseason Preview

1. BROKEBACK MOUNDMEN (Watson) – As is often the case, the team that drops out the earliest the year prior sets themselves up to be in a good position the following year. Watson doesn’t have any extra picks in the first four rounds – a function of dealing before the protected picks are available – however, he is still done drafting before anyone else (14^th). He has a whopping 14 picks in rounds 11-14.  Also, he starts the year with one of the best keeper groups thanks to 2017 injury acquisitions Clayton Kershaw, Trea Turner, and AJ Pollock.  Beyond that, there’s some serious potential power in Miggy, Rizzo, and Hoskins. There is zero depth, but there doesn’t need to be any! Watch out for the Mighty Wats this year.

2(t).  SEXUAL NAPALM (Gibby) – Another savvy seller from 2017, Gibby set himself up well in the draft with multiples first rounders and eight picks in the first five rounds.  He has the same fabulous core of Mookie, Machado, and Freeman, and added Marcell Ozuna in a big offseason deal.  He’d be higher if the last two keepers weren’t such big question marks. One will be Buxton, who seems like he should be 35 years old for as long as I’ve been writing about him, and then he has Jose Berrios and Ian Happ.  Another trade to sure up that last spot could put him ahead of Watson, but will require him take a hit in the pick department.

2(t).  RING OF FIRE (Dagan) – Boring old Dagan unsurprisingly has the standard draftboard with only one pick adjustment, and he’s got many of the same beautiful faces he had before – Bryant, Goldshmidt, Votto, and Carrasco.  And this year he’s got Jonathan Schoop to fill out the fifth spot. That last spot could use a boost as Lorenzo Cain, Gregory Polanco, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarbder and Michael Fulmer don’t really have top-84 appeal.  There may be opportunistic ways to improve that spot cheaply, but if he wants to sit tight, he still has a great group.

4.  THOR’S HAMMERED (Shomphe) – Chris took a bigger hit than is reflected on the draftboard score because he swapped the first overall pick for somewhere in the bottom half, but still seems well worth it to secure the best group of keepers at the moment.  The core of Harper, Benintendi, and Bellinger is hard to rival, while JUpton and DeGrom are a great #4 and #5. Jake Lamb is streaky but has the onbase skills to be a great keeper in our league.  He’s got a bit of potential depth with Nomar Mazara, Trevor Story, and Eric Hosmer, who all could be keepers but aren’t likely to bring back a big pick.

5 (t).  MONTEZUMA’S REVENGE (Adam) – The Revenge boosted the draftboard out of the duldrums and near mediocrity with the Cano/Grienke trade. Other than the Round 13-15 gap and the missing first rounder, the board is relatively normal and not overly backweighted.  The roster has some depth, but there aren’t a lot of obvious keepers among the group of Aaron Nola, Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Ian Desmond, Justin Bour, Jimmy Nelson (inj), Carlos Rodon (inj),  and youngins Bradley Zimmer and Eloy Jimenez.  There is potential for a pick upgrade, but unlikely to be monumental (depending on where Mous and LoMo end up). Still, there’s Trout, Scherzer, Sano, Dozier, and Dee Gordon, which is a top 3 group with broad category coverage.

5 (t).  STROMAN MY COBB ODOR (Jeff) – Jeff quietly was very busy leading up to the trade deadline last year and managed to get all his picks above round 16, good enough for 2^nd best overall pick score.  Beyond Blackmon, Lindor, and Bergman, there is a lot of talent and a whole lot of risk.  Rougned Odor, Luis Castillo, Lance McCullers, Didi Gregorious, Willson Contreras, Josh Bell, and Adam Jones all have some sort of wart, whether it is age or injury related.  Jeff probably likes three of those guys a lot, but could stand to be opportunistic and upgrade a spot for small giveaway in picks. He’s been quiet so far, but I expect that will change soon.

7(t).  COWHIDE JOYRIDE (Dave) – The Joyride is a little uneven without a whole lot of chance of evening out. Dave has the biggest discrepancy in rank of keepers vs. draftboard, with the second best group of keepers thanks to Giancarlo, Altuve, and Corey Seager… and, to a lesser extent, mainstay Posey. However, that’s a little deceiving when you consider the fringiness of Justin Turner and Domingo Santana, who should be  keepers based on 2017 production but don’t have the track record to rank as highly as they produced. Still, a fine group. It’s just hard to see the draftboard improving without dealing one of the big guys because there isn’t much depth otherwise (Todd Frazier, maybe Tajiuan Walker).  That doesn’t bode well with no first rounders and two picks in the first seven rounds.

7 (t).  MOOSE IS LOOSE (Brian) – Moose had the lowest keeper score before the trades started happening, but now he’s closer to the middle of the pack. Obviously Judge is a beast and Grienke should post numbers in line with 2017.  The names of Madison Bumgarner and Robinson Cano are bigger than their 2017 production, but their track records are too good to ignore. Joey Gallo would be a questionable keeper in AVG leagues, but he’s much more palatable in an OBP league. The sixth spot looks like it could be any one of the 2017 disappointments: Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler, Johnny Cueto, Adrian Beltre, Corey Dickerson (I thought he was a definite keeper, Jason?), or Chris Davis. Maybe Nick Castellanos.  Brian still has plenty of pick currency to upgrade the spot, though he may just sit back and see who looks good in spring.

9.  ONE NUT WONDERS (Jason) – With all the trading he does, its surprising Jason doesn’t have a worse draftboard (baseline score at this point). That’s good news for him because the chances to improve dramatically are pretty slim.  Because of age and injuries, the top names are watered down a bit with EE a little less appealing due to position depth and Donaldson coming off a down year. Kluber was a good addition and WMyers is solid, but the other two slots leave something to be desired.  Tanaka and Cespedes dealt with injuries and middling results, while Evan Longoria in SF and Carlos Santana in PHI aren’t that interesting.  And you need to muster a lot of faith to trust Scooter Gennett, Elvis Andrus, and Whit Merrifield. It would be very unlike Jason to settle for middle of the road in either picks or players, but that may be where he ends up.

10 (t).  KEEP OFF GROIN (Dan) – The Groin Kickers are in the opposite position of Cowhide with the same discrepancy in keeper and pick scores, just a different problem.  Dan has the worst group of keepers at this point and it’s not really that close. Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino are beautiful young studs, then you have Marte, who is fine but will find scoring runs more difficult.  I assume Moncada will be kept, but I can’t score him highly based on what he’s done so far.  After that, I don’t see a clear keeper among them.  Segura regressed to sub-keeper levels, Kyle Seager was droppable, Gleyber Torres was injured, and Jonathan Villar was a part-time player. Luckily for Dan, it wouldn’t cost a lot to improve those two spots considerably.

10 (t). THE ANGRY PIRATES (Kyle) – There’s nothing flashy about Kyle’s keepers or draftboard, but they’re solid through and through.  JDMart, Jose Ramirez, Sale, Yelich, and Verlander are all top 50 guys, while it’s easy any combination of Adam Duvall, James Paxton, Zach Godley, Marwin Gonzalez, or Eugenio Suarez occupying the final spot. That said, I’m not sure what kind of return anyone in that second group will bring back since they’re not clear cut keepers.  While the picks are spread well, he does have some holes in the first half of the draft he could stand to fill. But all in all, Kyle should be fine even he doesn’t budge.

10 (t)  ANAL HERSHISER (Justin) – Justin has an excellent group of keepers and probably some to spare, but the draftboard is very poor at this point.  Arenado and Springer are big-time studs and Ryan Braun, Khris Davis, Chris Archer, Billy Hamilton, Yu Darvish, Justin Smoak, Jose Quintana, and Michael Conforto are all viable options. This gives Anal the best chance to climb the highest on this list the fastest.  There are some questions with each one of them besides maybe Hamilton and Khrush, who do what they do well and consistently. It will be interesting to see if he can capitalize and pull himself out of the draftboard hole, which is deep with only three picks in the first eight rounds.

10 (t).  LIVIN ON CORREA (Chad) – It’s weird to see Chad in this position because he is so active, but while he has made trades to improve his draftboard, they’ve only brought him up to about a baseline score and there is still a gaping hole in rounds 13-16.  Meanwhile, the best keepers after Correa are SPs (Strasburg, Thor, CMart) following the Bellinger trade.  He did trade for the #1 overall pick, which is essentially a 7^th keeper, and could be especially valuable this year if Ohtani is what everyone expects him to be. Devers showed enough to be optimistic, but his youth and lack of experience necessitates a lower score for 2018. The same can be said for any consideration of Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Luke Weaver.  Then you have to look at Ryan Zimmerman, Steven Souza, and Paul DeJong based on what they did last year, and can’t rule out former mainstays coming off down years Matt Carpenter, David Price, Jon Lester.  The options may be less obvious than that of Anal Hershiser, but they’re no less interesting.  Chad could move much higher or be incredibly frustrated by draft day.

14.  TBD (Jed) – The new guy surely looked at his roster and liked what he saw, but Chris Shannon did him no favors before he skipped twon.  With his recent trade, Jed now has 3 – count em – 3 picks in the first HALF of the draft. That’s not good.  What’s worse is that while Shannon built up a lot of depth, he didn’t leave behind a whole lot of extra obvious keepers.  Cruz, Rendon, Abreu, Murphy, McCutchen comprise a solid #1-5, but then you’ve got 2017 specials Tommy Pham, Travis Shaw, and Chris Taylor, and a bunch of SP2s like Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Robbie Ray, Jake Arrieta, and Marcus Stroman. I would really like this roster for next season, but the sum is far greater than its parts, which doesn’t help Jed at all. He may be buried here permanently and with the draft board… man… better start studying.