2013 Draft Preview

Prestige Worldwide

Keepers: While Lars’ self-deprecating comments regarding his sixsome was noted in the draft video, they really aren’t that bad. There’s nothing hiding in Edwin’s underlying numbers to consider last year fluky, though he loses his hot corner eligibility. But that point is moot when you have Longoria, who has to stay healthy one of these years, right? Sabathia is a bigger name and bigger ass than he is in terms of production, but he’s a steady Tier 2-type who is likely to put up similar numbers. Tough break on Grandy. Hard to tell how he’ll bounce back once he returns. The trade for Halladay was a little curious given the recent concerns about his velocity, but there’s certainly upside to be had. I don’t know about Trumbo. That second half was awful. I wasn’t going to touch him, but he certainly has power and great position eligibility. Classic high risk/high reward.

Picks: With three picks in the first round, including number one overall, the commish is sitting pretty, but he still has to use them correctly. Russ had three last year – Crawford, Berkman, J. Montero. Yuck. Lars had two himself and they got squandered in Daniel Hudson and Howie Kendrick. But he’ll have a lot of early chances with nine picks in the first five rounds, so the pressure is on.

Outlook: With a decent group of keepers, if issues in the health department go his way and he nails at least half of his early picks, Lars should be a playoff team. But there’s a lot of downside to the keepers and lots of opportunities to mess up picks, so this team should be interesting.

Keepin’ it REAL

Keepers: Keepin keeps keeping keepers he’s kept before. Ells, Pedroia, Wright, Panda are all familiar faces from his previous championship. 2012 was a disaster for Pierce, but these four, along with Desmond and Sale, provide a very solid base with an extraordinary upside, albeit largely inconsistent track records. Ells in a contract year sounds like gold to me, and you know the effort will always be there for Pedy and Wright. Panda reported to camp chubby again, but nothing new there. He’s had problems staying on the diamond. Desmond is a gamer, but his newfound fantasy prowess comes with really no track record or pedigree in terms of power. Meanwhile, every expert thinks Sale’s arm motion will eventually send him to Dr. Andrews; the question is when. Each of these guys has ended a year in the top 50 players overall at some point. If they can do it in one year, Pierce just may have something.

Picks: Pierce quietly dealt his last five picks so he’ll be ending his draft night early. His 18 picks are spread pretty evenly across 12 rounds with multiple picks in six rounds. Part of Pierce’s success in drafting has been not overthinking it, with Dickey being a prime example.

Outlook:  He may be one of the quieter owners, but his team could make some noise if his keepers come in and he hits on his late picks.

Ring of Fire

Keepers:  Kemp is the big question mark here. He’s always been really good, but he’s only had that one historic 2011. Otherwise, he’s just a really good player with 30/30 potential. Healthy again, his age 28 year might harken back to the glory days. Votto should be his typical productive self with a ridiculous OBP, while Bruce should be right behind him slugging him with 40-homer potential. While not flashy, Zobrist is an excellent keeper, very consistent and with some position flexibility. Hard to find a reason to expect 18 steals again, but Goldy may make up for it with even more power. He’s got it, all right. Latos was really pretty good last year despite going from a massive field to a bandbox. Tough decision to keep him over Cueto and Rizzo, but given positions and upside, its probably the right choice.

Picks: Dagan’s pigheadedness/confidence when it comes to his players always leaves him in good shape for the draft. He somehow managed to sneak the third pick overall and only has few gaps in the middle of his draft board.

Outlook: A three-time champion, you could never count him out even if his keepers sucked and all his picks were after Round 20. With a solid draft board and high ceiling keepers, there’s no reason to think Dagan will deviate from his impressive track record of playoff appearances.

Moose is Loose

Keepers: You could call the group solid, but I really just see a lack of upside. It’s hard to imagine Tulo will be ripping up the basepaths this year given his injury history, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be productive elsewhere. Billy Butler showed some of the power scouts eventually expected his doubles to grow into and he’s solid. I still love Beltran, but as he turns 36 next month, I’d like him a lot more if there was a DH spot for him to use on occasion. I don’t like to unfairly predict injuries but there’s simply no way to expect him to keep this production up at his age. Maybe he gets in another great season, but I can’t predict a third healthy season in a row. I love Lee this year; no questions there. But you have to wonder about Grienke and Medlen. With Medlen, its obvious. There’s simply no way an afterthought in the 2012 draft who doesn’t get into the rotation until July becomes a keeper without a truly amazing half season. What to expect over the course of a full season is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, I thought Grienke in a pitcher’s park sounded great, but he’s an odd duck and already having some arm issues. Could be nothing and he’s a top 10 pitcher … or not.

Picks: Brian’s paralysis around last year’s trade deadline didn’t move the needle much in terms of his draft position. He’ll be the first to curse Haren, who cost him the fourth overall pick in the draft. But his board is mostly in tact with only three rounds without picks.

Outlook: I am more uncertain about Brian’s keepers than any other team. They could be very good or tremendously bad. Meanwhile, his draft board is middle of the pack. Much will depend on his picks.

Angry Pirates

Keepers:  Kyle went through an Extreme Home Makeover in the offseason, with Starlin the only player that has been on the roster since before the 2012 trade deadline. And I really like what he’s doing with the place. As great as Giancarlo is and as much potential as Lawrie has, McCutcheon is one of the few legit five-category guys around. Meanwhile, AGone was a great addition last year and I have little doubt he will return to his old self this season, except now with OF eligibility. Beltre was an absolute steal for J. Montero and three rounds, even if he only has a couple more great seasons left. And Yoenis is on a short list of players being taken after the third round who has real potential to be a top five pick next year. The underlying stats all play in his favor. He wasn’t nearly as impatient as advertised with a decent 8% walk rate. He strikes out less than most sluggers at 18.9% (Dunn: 34.2%), his ISO was in the Bruce/Granderson/Willingham range, and his wOBA was in the top 20% of qualifying players – all in his first year in the country, nevermind professional organized sports. In short, he’s the perfect player for a team with a lot of solid guys up top because his upside is so massive. I’m less enthused by Craig than most simply because last year was his first playing over 100 games in a season (119), he’s no longer 2B eligible, and lacks the pedigree of other first basemen, but I expect him to be a solid contributor nonetheless.

Picks: Kyle’s draft board is odd in that it looks like what is usually leftover by a team that took a deep run in the playoffs the year prior – not a team that finished 11^th and was out of it much of the year. No first round pick stinks, but its more disappointing that he didn’t capitalize enough on being out of it and only has four picks in the first six rounds. The picks are pretty well spread out, so it could be worse. But it should be better.

Outlook: Kyle has a very good chance to make his first real noise in this league this year. The picks are not an insurmountable hindrance by any stretch and his keepers could ultimately be the league’s best group.

Anal Hershiser

Keepers:  I really didn’t think much of Andrew’s potential keepers as 2012 came to a close, but his offseason dealing has turned that around in a big way. The addition of Prince gives the team something it – perhaps a function of the expansion league process – severely lacked:  a big-time cornerstone slugger. There are few players as reliable as Prince. Meanwhile, Andrew has the start of what could be the best staff in the league with Verlander, Strasburg, and Bumgarner. It’s a young group too. He certainly doesn’t need to think about pitching for quite a while in the draft.  I’m less enthused with his final two keepers, LaRoche and Bourn. If they do what they did last year, fine. They don’t have a lot of upside and the downside could be a lot of mediocrity, but I also don’t blame him for not dealing away his picks for what might amount to a minor upgrade in talent. All in all, a good group.

Picks: An interesting draft board with two high picks, fourth and sixth overall, a couple gaps here and there, before ending his draft with a daunting seven selections in a matter of 23 picks in rounds 12 and 13 (or 18 and 19). Two good hitters in those first two picks would balance this team quickly.

Outlook:  The Fielder addition gives him an offensive anchor to build around. He’ll need to fill in that infield with skilled players to match the pitching production he should have. Andrew came to play this year.

Sexual Napalm

Keepers:  Gay Santa didn’t waste anytime this offseason as he started retooling his roster the moment the Patriots season was over. The recent addition of Freeman was very smart, especially for a team with a focus on youth. He’s still very young and already has two productive seasons under his belt. Meanwhile, Darvish, Gallardo, and Anderson present an intriguing mix of skills, notable some high K potential. The Beltre deal in the offseason was odd, particularly since it yielded a player he is not keeping (Montero), and I’d like his team ever better with him rather than Phillips, who is really perpetually overrated across the board. POP QUIZ:  Would you rather have Player A’s 82/17/56/20/.315 line, Player B’s 62/20/86/13/.316 line, or Player C’s 86/18/77/15/.321 line? Player A is Danny Espinosa, Player B is Kyle Seager, Player C is Phillips. All are eligible at 2B, but the former two are available much later. As Gay Santa will learn, I rarely ever condone wasting roster spots on prospects – particularly keeper spots for a player with an undefined role like Profar. Sure, Trout proved that theory wrong last year, but he’s an outlier.  There’s countless examples of guys who were supposed to be The Next Big Thing who ultimately consume precious roster spots, waste potential production from veterans, and ultimately end up on the waiver wire.  But that’s one, moderately successful, know-it-all-douchebag fantasy player’s opinion/strategy/observation. I blame Gordon Beckham.

Picks: St. Nick built up his assets a bit last year before the deadline and has since dealt much of that away to form his group of six. There’s a pretty massive gap in his draft, where he has two picks in the middle six rounds. That said, he’s still got his first five picks, so things aren’t all bad.

Outlook: You could question his trades and a few of his keepers, but there’s no denying he’s already proven to be a very active owner. Active ownership and unique (and informed… Troy, erhrm…) points of view are what makes this league great and I’m happy to have Gay Santa on board. At this point though, there’s no reason to enter the season with a two-year plan. Anything can happen with the right draft.

Clayton & the King

Keepers:  With Trout and Cano up top, he could have the bottom half of the Marlins lineup as his keepers and still be in contention. But that’s not the case. He’s got two legit top 20 guys in CarGo and Bautista to go along with two of the best and most consistent young pitchers in the game with Felix and Kershaw. Russ has done a tremendous job drafting over the years and resisting the temptation to trade some of those great talents, which is the key to putting forth an excellent group of keepers every year. Of course, he also doesn’t have a championship to show for it. Perhaps this is the year. While there are other teams with great keepers (Casten is close), Russ hands down has the top group.

Picks: Another sign of a great owner is making a deep playoff run and still having picks to show for it. Remarkably, Russ had an excellent 2012 and still – unlike many of his fellow playoff teams – has a full draft board. He’s missing a 4^th and a 5^th, but he makes up for it with two 6ths and 7ths and the rest of the board is pretty full.

Outlook: If he had just managed to pull out a championship last year, I’d call 2012 one of the more extraordinary jobs by an owner in league history given the state of his team going into 2013. I’m not ranking teams at this point, but Russ would easily be #1 at this point. Pressures on.

Donkey Punchers

Keepers:  For some reason, Hamilton is making “experts” very hesitant going into this year. I think he’s going to be his good volatile self, if not better, in that lineup. He and Holliday should make up an excellent outfield for Chris. Kipnis is a bit of a shot in the dark, but a good one. He fell off badly late last year, but it was his first season; 25/40 is reachable, though 15/20 is also a possibility. Worth a shot nonetheless. In typical Chris fashion, the rotation should be exemplary with Cain, Wainright (last year’s underlying numbers are much better than his actual numbers in his return from TJ surgery), and Gio (providing he isn’t suspended). A lot of good gamer types here that make up a solid squad.

Picks: In a Casten circa 2011-type manner, Chris did an incredible job acquiring assets and trading them off for picks last summer and will now sit out the back half the draft.  All 18 picks will be made in the first nine rounds. For comparison, Dave has five picks before Chris is done drafting. This is a massive advantage.

Outlook: The work Chris put in last year could really payoff in his first championship. Teams who went a similar route in 2011, like Russ, Dave, and Brandon, all made the playoffs. At this point, failure to reach the playoffs would be a disappointment of epic proportions.

Montezuma’s Revenge

Keepers: There’s not a lot sexy about my keepers. JUpton is the biggest name and my biggest man crush due to his propensity to crush the ball into oblivion and his youth. I expected huge things from him last year and was disappointed. In fact, outside of Hamels, basically all my keepers disappointed last year. Santana stunk for most of the season, Kinsler was mediocre, Lawrie was injured or ineffective and let’s not get started on Hosmer. Ironically, five of my six keepers from last season are back, which is a bit unlike me. But the base case for all those guys still holds true and Aramis gives me a steady productive bat, who has helped me in each of the past two season after I acquired him following his typical, predictable slow start. This year, I’ll have to condone this start somehow. Either way, this could go very right and I’ll have an excellent group, or it could go very bad again. A lot rides on the shoulders of young Eric Hosmer, the boner for whom shrunk to semistatus last year only to return amongst the hype of his nice spring and reworked approach. We shall see.

Picks: Not great, but were a lot worse heading into the offseason. The biggest problem is the lack of picks in rounds 2 and 3. Otherwise, the picks are spread pretty well throughout. Dealing Lee, Anderson, and Dickey in the offseason helped tremendously.

Outlook: I’m not starting on particularly strong footing, certainly in the bottom third of the league. And my history of fudging first picks (CPena in 2010, PAlvarez in 2011, Pineda in 2012) isn’t exactly instilling confidence. But I generally end up having a good regular season before losing in the playoffs to Dagan, who I am mere percentage points away from for the top spot in the overall standings. There’s worse things I suppose.

GRUMPY MUNCHKINS

Keepers:  Like Russ, Casten’s keepers are exemplary. Cabrera is simply on a tier by himself when it comes to infielders, while Pujols continues to produce year after year. I will be interested is seeing how Giancarlo does. I’m sure it was difficult to get rid of Cutch’s five category contributions and get back someone who contributes to only four and whose his ability to contribute to two of those four categories may be severely hindered by the lack of talent around him. Still, the power and youth is tremendous. I think he’s a lock for 50 if he stays healthy, but what if he only gets 75 rbis? Taking his youth movement further, Lawrie and Heyward are both very young, so there may be more lumps to take, but also supremely talented. Lawrie could do a lot damage in the Jays new lineup, which will also feature Reyes, whose only question mark is health. He’s going to play 81 games on that turf in Toronto, so it’s a minor concern. In total, there’s some very talented youth mixed with three guys who are arguably the top ranked player at their position, so good things could be in store.

Picks: Unlike Russ and unlike his team last year, Casten is in a bit of a hole when it comes to picks, having given up basically everything in last year’s failed attempt at a championship run. He’s got no picks in the first two rounds, then he has six selection between picks 33 and 78, then a long long wait until pick 185. His situation is better than it was when last season ended, but with two-thirds of his picks in the last five rounds, he’s going to have to nail that middle chunk. Since he is not keeping a pitcher, he’s going to have to take some chances in the backend of that rotation, nevermind a bullpen, which he might just skip all together.

Outlook:  Casten is a very good evaluator of talent and the late rounds and waiver wire can be full of hidden gold. Provided he’s done his homework, I’m sure he can dig up some gems to fill in around his excellent keepers. If so, and his youngsters produce, Brandon will be a top team again. But he’s got his work cut out for him.

Cowhide Joyride

Keepers:  Dave gave up a lot to try to make a run last year, which was surely partially fuelled by the fact that he gave up midway through 2011 to make a run in 2012. The sailing wasn’t as smooth for him as the other teams that stockpiled picks prior to last year’s draft as he dealt away much of his 2013 draft board to bolster last year’s roster. It left him with an empty draft board and caused him to take a hard look at his keepers. I agree with the move to trade Fielder. He was the biggest chip and got him the highest pick of any traded in the offseason (23^rd overall). However, Dave’s keepers look much less mighty than they did. The move of Chapman to the bullpen means Dave will once again have a tremendous bullpen in Chapman and Kimbrel, but he’s keeping two closers, which hasn’t been done in the history of High & Tight. Certainly part of that is Dusty Baker’s fault and is disappointing because it would’ve been great to see the numbers Chapman could put up with 200 innings. David Price is still getting better, so Dave’s got an ace to lead his staff, but he’ll need to cobble together an offense with some potential. As great as Posey is, he’s a catcher and the counting numbers are limited by total ABs, while the injury risk is high. Zimmerman is great as long as he’s healthy, but that is a big presumption to make. At least he’s starting the season healthy. Meanwhile, I think Andrus days as an automatic keeper should’ve been over by now; 21 sbs, 85 runs, and a .349 obp just aren’t enough production to make him a cornerstone. With only three offensive keepers and a bad pick situation, he will have to be one for Dave. Now, contract years occasionally make guys go off, but he’s never going to contribute to HR and RBI, so he’s going to have to make up for it elsewhere in a water-down Rangers lineup.

Picks: Yuck. Its better than it was when the offseason started and better than Casten in the sense that they’re more spread out in the later rounds, but still – three picks in the first seven rounds is not good. And he had to give up some great keepers in Fielder, Cespedes, and MadBum to get those early picks. From the eighth round on, he’s in good shape, but at that point many teams are filling up the middle of their rotation and choosing their third or fourth outfielder.

Outlook:  Dave is going to have to work some magic to compete this year. It’s the case against going for it all and dealing your picks for a run at a championship. Hard to blame him, but this is what you’re left with: weakened keepers and a draft board that is still lousy. If he can draft like he did last year (Bumgarner, Darvish, Cespedes, Kimbrel, Rios, A. Jackson, Jansen, Motte, Headley), he won’t have a problem getting back to the playoffs.

Urban Achievers

Keepers: Unlike fellow expansion team Andrew, Dan has focused on a youth movement in his third year with Harper, Moore, Jennings, Wieters, and Machado. BJ Upton is the only one with a track record and even that is somewhat inconsistent. I really like Harper and Moore and expect them each to climb into the upper echelon of their positions this year. Jennings and Wieters, however, I’m beginning to wonder whether they are what they are. Both will turn 27 this year and haven’t put together seasons that are keeper-worthy, contributing only mildly to a few categories each. That said, they both have the pedigree for this to be their big breakout season. If so, Dan might just be on to something, perhaps for years to come. Lastly, Machado is supremely talented and by next year he could have 3B/SS eligibility and pop 30 homers, but I suspect this season will have its moments but ultimately his numbers won’t be tremendous, particularly that OBP (he walked a measly 4.5% last year). Dan’s group may have the greatest potential upside/downside difference in the league.

Picks: The draftboard is pretty well intact, with a 3^rd and 10^th the only empty rounds of note. The balls didn’t quite fall his way, so he’s drafting late in the first but there’s some very good options this year and two of the top 16 picks is a nice position to be in.

Outlooks: Due to the youth of the keepers, there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. I will be interested to see if Dan continues the youth focus in the draft. While more potential may sound good, stable veterans are what prevent volatility. Of course, getting hot at the right time can pay off big time too.

One Nut Wonders

Keepers: They seemed a lot better a couple weeks ago. However, it sounds like MLB may not back down from Braun if they have something concrete. I’m sure he will fight it tooth and nail again, but the possibility for a 50 game suspension still exists. Meanwhile, two of his top hitters – Hanley and Headley – got hurt in spring training and will miss the first couple months of the season. If they come back healthy, Jason should be able to tread water and recover to make another playoff run. I still like Dickey a lot. There wasn’t much luck hiding behind those numbers last year, just much better control that made his success in previous years, which was quite notable, turn to ace material. I worry about Weaver though. The difference between his ERA and xFIP was significant (2.81 vs. 4.69) and his strikeout rate dropped quite a bit as well. He also continues to have a very low GB% (36.0%), which can lead to volatility. At least he has a great defensive outfield. So, the names in this sixsome are good but there’s a lot of question marks lingering that could ultimately thwart Jason’s attempt at a repeat.

Picks: Jason should be commended for achieving what he did last year and having a draft board that is better than many teams who were out of contention most of 2012. The only gap is in the seventh round, he’s got one pick in the first six, then he finishes up in the 14^th with four rounds to spare, and three picks in the 11^th – the round that magically produced Encarnacion, Sale, and Willingham last year. Considering last year’s success, an impressive draft board, certainly.

Outlook: It would be much better if he didn’t lose the left side of his infield, but great teams persevere through adversity and I fully expect Jason to be right in the mix this season.