2013 Draft Review

Round 1

Best Pick: SP Max Scherzer, Keepin – The first step in creating a rotation with the potential to dominate, Pierce’s pick was the best player in the draft by my account. The 3.74 era wasn’t all bad when you consider his 2.80 xFIP, an indicator that the number might go down significantly. His walk rate was fine (7.6%) and his K rate is outstanding (29.4%). He can be a four-category stud and at 28, he can be better.

Runner Up: 1B Anthony Rizzo, One Nut – I was shocked he made it to the last pick of the round. Teams loaded up on minor leaguers later on but many missed out on an opportunity to get a player who will help this year and for many to come. He’s a few months older of Puig, Hamilton, Bradley, younger than d’Arnaud, and he’s done it before. I realize it’s a higher price to pay but that’s because he is on the cusp of superstardom, unlike the other guys. Thought he’d be #1.

Worst Pick: OF Nelson Cruz, Prestige – There weren’t many flops in the first, but Cruz is the closest. I used to like him, thinking he just needed to stay healthy. Then he got past 500 abs for the first time at the age of 33 (585 total) and put up worse power numbers, more Ks, and the same crappy obp as the year before. There were about 20 OFs ahead of him on my list.

X Factor: 1B Ike Davis, Urban – This section is dedicated to risk/reward. I don’t see a lot of risk here, but the reward could be ample. Like 40 homers and a .370 obp. I went back and forth deciding between him and Dunn but went with Big Donkey due to OF eligibility. I may regret it.

Round 2

Best Picks: SP Jon Lester, Cowhide – Lots to choose from here. I really liked Zimmermann and Samardzija for different reasons, but this pick is particularly good for Dave, who didn’t have many early picks but made good use of them. A perennial keeper, Lester has the ace upside and he’s had a great spring. I expect 2012 will be the outlier.

Runner Up: OF Josh Willingham, Sexual – There’s nothing sexy about Josh Willingham, but he was a superstar last year (85/35/110/.366) and 2012 was really just a continuation from the year prior with better BB%. Solid pick for the rookie manager. I also liked Jason’s Prado selection. I’ve never seen a player with this much eligibility at key positions with that much production. However, his lack of huge production in any one category tempers the optimism a bit. He’s best used in the UTIL slot, filling in whenever someone sits. It may not seem like a big advantage, but how many times have you lost a category by a run, an sb, or a few obp percentage points?

Worst Pick: C Wilin Rosario, Angry – I like him fine, but this is just way too early, particularly with VMart and Napoli eligible, available, and not catching. Wilin might hit 35 hr this year but he won’t get on base much and the runs and SBs won’t be there. So he’s two categories and that’s it. I want more in Round 2.

X Factor (TIE): 3B Will Middlebrooks, Ring and 3B Mike Moustakas, Prestige – I like these guys both about the same as the both have about the same skill set and pedigree. Both have keeper potential based on their counting stats and power, but neither will walk much (4.5% and 6.4%, respectively) or steal bases. They also could both flop and be prone to heinous cold streaks.

Round Three

Best Pick: SP Jake Peavy, Angry – The second best starter on my list was the tenth taken. He was excellent last year and has a long history of production when healthy. His first healthy season in a while produced 23 qs (71.9%), 194 ks, and 3.37 era with a 1.10 whip. He easily could’ve been a keeper, so third round is great value.

Runner Up: 1B Ryan Howard, Cowhide – News of this former 50 hr slugger’s demise is a bit premature in my opinion. I think he’ll bounce back fine, and again, a smart pick by a team with few early picks. I did like a lot of guys in this round though – Johnson (Pierce), Morrow (Brandon), Swisher (Russ), Konerko (Chris), and VMart (Jason). Smart picks.

Worst Pick: OF Jayson Werth, Prestige – There’ a few candidates here, but I’ll go with the top pick in the round, who was below some of the guys still available on the waiver wire. He’ll be 34 and has regressed ever since leaving Philly. The only categories he did anything in last season was obp and runs. The year before, he stunk in those categories but had a little pop (20 homers). This pick was based on the reputation he built as a late blooming 30-year-old in a good lineup and a small park. That’s not him anymore. That said, Brian’s pick of Freese was a bit of reach due to the fact that he’s 30 and last season was his first “full” season (500 abs is a little short) and he’s starting the season on the DL.

X Factor: 1B David Ortiz, Keepin – I wasn’t sure whether to put this in worst or X Factor, but the progress he’s reportedly made in the last few days and a possible mid April return puts him here. But, at 37, there’s obvious huge risk. This could be tremendous value if he can produce what he did last season, but this was a classic case of homerism on the part of Pierce, who had a good draft overall, even if he has six Red Sox.

Round 4

Best Pick: 2B Rickie Weeks, Grumpy – Like Dave, Brandon needed to make these picks count and he accomplished that here. His OBP was down last year at .328 but his career OBP is .350, so no concerns there. Meanwhile 25 homers is likely with at least 15 steals and good run production numbers. Casten doesn’t have the pitching staff of last year, but the offense could actually be better.

Runner Up: SP Jonathan Niese, Montezumas – I was holding my breath at this point hoping he would fall here because he was the only safe pitcher with ace upside. At 26, he continues to get better each year, converting 73% of his starts for qs and ending with 3.41/1.17 rates while striking out near 20% of batters. If he can take another step in the K department this year, he’ll be a keeper.

Worst Pick: SP Marco Estrada, Prestige – There were a lot of pitchers taken in this round and I really didn’t have a problem with any of them. The difference between Estrada and the others is the lack of track record or pedigree. Other than a 34.3 GB%, the underlying stats are quite good. But there’s reason he was not on the fantasy radar a year ago. He might be fine, but the 47.8 QS% is concerning and indicates volatility. The 25.4 K% is awesome though. We’ll see.

X Factor: SP Alex Cobb, Donkey – Chris had two candidates for this spot with Pedro Alvarez as well. When I started my deep stat dive in January, Cobb stood out as a guy who could possibly blow up with an opportunity. Tampa is a good place to pitch and he ranked 22^nd in the league in K+GB-BB%, a stat I sort of made up aimed identifying pitchers that can strike out guys while mitigating volatility. However, it looks like every “expert” saw the same thing and he was on a number of sleeper/breakout lists. At this point, it’s high. I had him ranked just below another KGB-BB star, Dillon Gee, who went six rounds later. I easily could switch Estrada and Cobb in these spots. Again, we’ll see.

Round 5

Best Pick: OF Hunter Pence, Montezumas – This one is pretty easy since I had him ranked in the top 20 overall. I really have no clue why he dropped this far other than people were generally waiting on OFs. I was going to wait too, but couldn’t – 104 rbis is not easy to accomplish no matter how much value you give the stat. It’s even more difficult with a hernia. He wasn’t great once going to SF, but there’s no reason to think that will prevent him from staying around his statistical norm. Yes his .319 obp was bad, but his career OBP is .339, which is just fine. Oh, and he’s in a contract year and has played more than 150 games every year since he came up with Houston.

Runner Up: 2B Dan Uggla, Ring – Given his past production and quality on base skills, this was a good pick for Dagan. Even in a down season, he produced a .348 obp. Uggla is one of those guys who might’ve dropped because of his Yahoo rank, which doesn’t take into account a stellar 14.9 BB%.  A perennial keeper before this year, Uggla is the type of multi-category contributor at this point in the draft that keeps Dagan competitive each year.

Worst Pick: SP Jeremy Hellickson, Urban – One of these years he’s going to produce the way his underlying numbers say he should. Other than his control, nothing is particularly good – 54.8 QS%, 6.10 xFIP, 16.7 K%, 38.2 GB% (three year). Some guys are just like that though and manage good numbers. Maybe that’s just who he is, but I’m pretty sure he’ll never end up on my roster.

X Factor: SP Matt Garza, One Nut – A smart pick and good chance to take after several quality, relative low risk picks. If he was healthy, Garza wouldn’t have made it past the second round. He might be back in April and he’ll be a steal if he’s is old self. Extra motivation given the contract year.

Round 6

Best Pick: SP Trevor Cahill, Grumpy – As I mentioned during the draft, there’s a lot to like about Cahill’s potential for this year. Not least of which is his youth, mixed with an astounding 61.2 GB%. Ground balls don’t equal low era or even whip, but it typically means the pitcher is less susceptible to blowups. A little improvement to his rates 3.78/1.29 and a slightly better K rate (18.6 last season, 16.7 three year), and you’ve got a solid member of the second tier pitcher club.

Runner Up: OF Brett Gardner, Keepin – Unlike other speedsters with on base skills, Gardner has the unique potential to dominate the three categories. His career OBP is .355, but he was at .383 two years ago and combined for 96 stolen bases and 184 runs in 2010 and 2011 in less than 1,000 abs. Imagine the possibilities if he got 700 abs at some point. Given the status of the Yankees lineup, he could get there if he’s healthy.  A 110 run, 60 sb, and a .370 obp is not hard to imagine.

Worst Pick: SP Kyle Lohse, Clayton – Nothing overly bad about this pick. I actually didn’t really have a problem with anyone in this round, but Lohse is the guy I expect will regress significantly. Not a huge fan of Miley either, but both had good rate-stabilizing stats last year. However, while Miley is young and still establishing himself, Lohse is 34 and his flyball tendencies leave a friendly park for an unfavorable one. The last two years rates -- 3.39/1.17 and 2.86/1.09 -- are quite far off career averages of 4.45/1.37. His era was more than a run worse on the road last year as well.

X Factor:  SS Andrelton Simmons, Urban – There’s nothing about his stats from last year that make him close to a fantasy starter. None of his rates are good, he didn’t show tremendous speed on the basepaths, and his biggest asset is defense. But he’s 23 and sitting atop of a tremendous offense.  A full season could yield a keeper for years to come, or he could be who he was last year, which isn’t rosterable.

Round 7

Best Pick: 1B Adam LaRoche Angry – It’s not easy finding a keeper who produces a 30/100/.340 season, but to get one in the seventh round is complete robbery. I have questions about the backend of Kyle’s rotation and lack of bullpen, but his offense should have not problems. Morales and LaRoche will be a very high producing UTIL combo.

Runner Up: OF Josh Reddick, Ring – No, he didn’t deserve to be a keeper this year. But if produces an 85/32/85/11 line again, then yes, he’s absolutely a keeper. Guys who come out of obscurity need some prolonged production to convince people. Not sure he’ll do it, but he’s proven me wrong before. A little unlike Dagan considering the low OBP, but Reddick walked 8.2% last year, which isn’t awful and was a big improvement from the year before. There’s still upside.

Worst Pick: SP Tommy Milone, Prestige – I really don’t understand the infatuation with him among the rankings I’ve viewed. He was essentially unusable on the road last year with a 4.83 era and an awful 1.52 whip. Mix in his lack of upside, low K rate (6.5 K/9) and low ground ball rate (38.1%), and you get a guy who is unlikely to improve on last year’s mediocrity. There were much better options available (among them were Hudson and Garcia, who went in the same round). Not a big fan of Harrison either, but at least you can use him more than half the time.

X Factor: 1B/OF Corey Hart, Keepin – If he comes back as his old self in a month, this is excellent value for Pierce. Word is he is on schedule, so a 75/25/75/.340 season is certainly within reach and very valuable as a DL stash. Belt and Shelby Miller also qualify here, with Belt holding significant upside, albeit something less than Hart.

Round 8

Best Pick: SP Julio Teheran, Cowhide – There wasn’t a lot of can’t miss guys taken in this round, so I’m going with Teheran. Spring training stats aren’t very important, unless its someone like Teheran whose ample pedigree is just begging for a glimpse of the promise he once showed. Fantasy owners often shun guys like Teheran who were big prospects at one point but struggle initially. But he’s only 22 and with Dave’s solid veteran picks early on, a chance at upside was a good move. The only question is whose spot does Beachy take when he comes back, but there’s still three months before that decision needs to be made.

Runner Up: C Jesus Montero, Donkey – Considering he was almost kept this year and was a first round pick last year, I’d says this is good value. Tough to look at last year’s numbers, but he’s still very young and the fences have come in significantly in Seattle. Good chance to take here for Chris, who was rounding out its team at this point. It helps that he’s likely to be DHing full time by the all star break once Zunino is ready.

Worst Pick: 1B Mark Teixera, Sexual – I’m not certain, but pretty sure you could’ve grabbed him as a flyer in a five more rounds. I’m all for keeping stars stashed on the DL, but Mike had other needs and a wrist injuries can render a power hitter worthless. Maybe he fits into Gay Santa’s two-year plan, but I just think there was more value to be had here either way.

X Factor: 1B Lance Berkman Donkey – I honestly didn’t know what to do with this guy in my rankings. He is two years away from a keeper-worthy year when he put together a 90/31/94/.412 season in 488 abs. The problem is that season was sandwiched between two season when he failed to reach 110 abs and couldn’t manage a 15/3/10 line. He was also talking retirement this offseason. One of my favorite former players, he would be a first ballot H&T hall of famer. Batting cleanup in Texas is a good place to be as well, but its truly a boom or bust deal for Chris. At this point, he could afford to take that risk.

Round 9

Best Pick:  OF Dexter Fowler, Clayton – Entering his age 27 season, this could be Fowler’s year he reached the 90/20/70/30/.390 potential he has. He made it to 72/13/53/12/.389 in 530 abs last season, so 700 abs would go a long way to making that a reality. I would’ve taken him sooner but needed the sure fire SBs. I expect him to take a step forward.

Runner Up: 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis, Montezumas – For the past two years I’ve benefited from Aramis’ early season slumps by acquiring him just before he got hot. This year, he’s a keeper, so I’m going to need to live through it. Enter Youk. On a one-year contract, this former OBP star could produce great numbers in the heart of the Yankee order in that ball park. I’d feel better if he were DHing, but if he can stay healthy he’s a tremendous asset, as he might have to play 1B for me too if Hosmer struggles.

Worst Pick: OF Michael Brantley, Cowhide – This guys just oozes mediocrity. The 63/6/60/12/.348 line is precisely who Brantley is. And that’s not very good. Fowler definitely would’ve been a better pick and about 50 other guys.

X Factor: SP Rick Porcello, Prestige – Fantasy players, as well as the Tigers, have been waiting for Porcello to fulfill the once bountiful promise he had for years. If he doesn’t improve this year, its probably safe to write him off. He had a great spring and, at 24, still has room to grow. Classic boom or bust though because we all know who Porcello has historically been, and that’s a waiver wire fill in.

Round 10

Best Pick: SP Dillon Gee, Ring – I was hoping he was going to fall later because his underlying stats were quite good. A blood clot shortened his season last year, but he still managed to convert 70% of his starts to quality, a 3.32 xFIP, 8.0 K/9, and ranked 15^th in K+GB-BB. He improved in both walks and, at 26, is ready to take the next step toward reliable fantasy starter. He’s never had the stuff to make people consider him an ace, so expectations should be kept in check. But he should have a good season.

Runner Up: RP Chris Perez, Clayton – He was given a clean bill of health to play opening day, so I see no reason why he went so low relative to other closers, a year after saving 39 games. He’s on a better team with a coach who won’t give up on him after a bad stretch, so this was great value for Russ. I liked my pick of Street here too, but his injury concerns are well documented.

Worst Pick: OF Angel Pagan, Anal – At 32, he’ll get a decent amount of stolen bases, maybe 25-30, and 80-90 runs if he stays healthy, but he just doesn’t have any upside in power or OBP. There’s just more potential profit to be had at this point in the draft.

X Factor:  OF Norichika Aoki, Montezuma’s – Picked up from Japan to be a fourth outfielder, he ultimately became a fixture at the top of a good Brewers lineup. In 588 abs he produced a 81/10/50/30/.355 line. A healthy season as the leadoff hitter would mean potentially even more production. His contact skills are quite good, with an Ichiro-like stellar 9.4 K% - a number that jumps of the page of sluggers in the 19-24% range. A little more pop and he could be tremendous… or he could regress like many do in their second year.

Round 11

Best Pick: RP Casey Janssen, One Nut – Good teams generally produce good closers. Janssen isn’t flashy but he’s consistent and apparently healthy. If the Blue Jays put together a 95-win team like they think they have, that’s a lot of saves and Jason just nabbed them after the likes of Balfour, Perkins, and Grilli.

Runner Up: SP Jason Hammel, Angry – Kyle did a great job stealing a starter who was one of the best in the league before he went down with an injury last year. Living in a post-Mile High environment, Hammel also reportedly adjusted his mechanics and it paid off with rates of 3.43/1.24 that was backed up by a 3.15 xFIP. He ranked 26^th in the league in K+GB-BB and had a very nice 8.6 K/9. Solid starters like that shouldn’t be available here.

Worst Pick: RP Carlos Marmol, Prestige – Believe me, I understand the pressure of getting closers, but no one is more likely to lose their job in short order than Marmol. At some point, it just makes more sense to get value and hope you can pick up a closer later on, or nail your pick and trade him for a closer. Just a lot not to like and the Cubs don’t like him either.

X Factor: SS Derek Jeter, Urban – The concerns are understandable given his age and lack of health to start the season, but he’s still Derek Jeter. If he’s healthy, he will produce as a top 10 shortstop. He might be healthy in two weeks or he might never this season. It’s hard to tell, but a good chance to take at this point with rather lackluster SS options available.

Round 12

Best Pick: 1B/3B Mark Reynolds, Clayton – If I knew I could’ve got him here, I would’ve left Youk for someone else to grab. I had them side by side, but Reynolds has the bigger downside. The upside could be amazing. He is consistently ranked low in batting average leagues, but he can be gold in our league with an excellent 13.6 BB% and the ability to run if Tito will let him. It wouldn’t really surprise me if he ended up on the waiver wire at some point, but I think he’s going to have a great season in an improved Indians lineup.

Runner Up:  2B Neil Walker, Cowhide – Just another reason why I liked Dave’s draft. This guy plummeted and for no good reason other than people had 2B filled. In his age 27 season, there’s no reason to think he can’t improve on a career high line of 76/14/83/9/.349. He won’t be a star, but he’ll certainly contribute at a shallow position.

Worst Pick:  RP Bruce Rondon, Anal – Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but the writing was on the wall with an awful spring training (2.14 whip!). His latest blowup was the day of the draft. Leyland wasn’t about to put up with that from a rookie. I know there weren’t many closers left, but I still would’ve rather had Veras or – even better – I would’ve gone in another direction.

X Factor: OF Oscar Taveras, Keepin – Doesn’t get much more risk/reward than this. I agree wholeheartedly if there’s one minor leaguer who could come up and produce like a star, it’s Tavaras. But, for now, he’s in AAA, the Cards are contenders and he won’t get a sniff of the majors unless he’s in line for regular Abs, which he won’t get unless Jay really struggles (and Matheny doesn’t mind a weakened defensive outfield) or Beltran gets severly injured. Not out of the realm of possibility certainly, but tough to bank on it and waste a roster spot on a prospect.

Best Pick: C Jonathan Lucroy, Keepin – Lucroy is on a short list of catchers I’d reach a bit for (if I needed a catcher) because he’s got such great four-category potential. If you take his rates from his injury-shortened 2012 and apply it over 550 abs, you get a line of 73/19/92/6/.368. I like the Brewers lineup and his potential at the ripe age of 26.

Runner Up: SS JJ Hardy, Anal – Sure, his OBP stinks. Sure, he doesn’t steal. But the potential power he provides from a powerless position is a tremendous asset and great value this late in the draft. I like Jason’s pick of Volquez here as well, despite my aversion to him because he hates me. Great strikeout potential in a park that can withstand his homer tendencies – that’s a good thing. I like Dave's pick of Matt Carpenter too, but I’d like to see him in a starter role for an extended period first.

Worst Pick:  SP Mark Buehrle, One Nut – I know he seems like good value here, but I just think his name might keep him on a roster (perhaps not Jason’s) longer than he should. That park is just not a good place for his fly ball tendencies and his 4.62 xFIP indicates his 3.74 era was a little lucky. That 1.17 whip in 2012 was much lower than the previous two seasons (1.40, 1.30) and a 54.8 QS% just is not good. In a non-win league, I just don’t see him providing a whole lot of value.

X Factor: SP Tommy Hanson, Cowhide – Remember when he pitched 200 ip in 2010? He struckout 173 with 3.33/1.17 rates and, at 24, he was bound for stardom. The last two seasons have been injury-riddled or filled with underperformance. He’s reportedly doing better, but is certainly not fully healthy and the fact that the Braves were willing to give him up for a reliever with control problems says something. I don’t blame Dave for taking a chance here, but its certainly a risk.

Round 14

Best Pick: 2B/OF Emilio Bonifacio, One Nut – Jason did good getting him again, this time very late. The reasoning is clear because Bonifacio doesn’t have a clear spot for regular playing time, but he’ll at least be a starter from the outset with Lawrie out. If he can find regular abs, he’s a great asset. He’s even better if he can manage to start five games at SS and 3B at some point and expand that eligibility.

Runner Up: SS Jed Lowrie, Sexual – I’d love to see what numbers he could put up with a healthy year. Maybe this is the year? He was fantastic in 340 abs last year and would project to hit 23 homers if you take those rates and apply them to 550 abs. He also walks 11.1% of the time, which makes him extra valuable in our league. Still, he needs health.

Worst Pick: Yasiel Puig, Clayton – You know how I feel about wasting spots on minor leaguers. I really don’t like roster spots to be wasted on guys who have a complete and utter aversion to taking a pitch. Sure, great spring. Nice. He’s in the minors and is unlikely to get an extended look this year. When he does, I expect him to struggle and in no way produce in a way worth keeping.

X Factor: SS Jean Segura, Montezumas – I needed speed and wanted to get it from the shortstop position. After Simmons and Alcides were taken eight rounds earlier, I was pretty much set on taking Segura late. He stole 50 sbs once in the minors and showed a little pop. As the centerpiece in the Grienke trade, obviously there is pedigree worth noting. As with any rookie, he could end up in the minors in four weeks (remember the buzz about Dee Gordon last year?), but there’s plenty of upside to like here.

Round 15

Best Pick:  OF Denard Span, Montezumas – Gotta give myself the nod here. Span’s suffered from concussion early last year but came back and produced well. Now he’s leadoff for the powerful Nats and is apparently going to be running a lot more, making improvement on his 97/8/68/26/.392 career high line very possible. He could be an excellent producer this year and I was shocked a savvy league like ours let him fall this far.

Runner Up: 1B Chris Carter, Ring – This guy never would’ve made it this far if I didn’t have to focus on pitching and speed. I loved him and his .350 obp last year (his minor league numbers support a very good rate) in Oakland, and I love it even more with the promise of fulltime abs in the little park in Houston, and the eventual outfield eligibility. I think this will be the steal of the draft.

Worst Pick: OF Billy Hamilton, Grumpy – So many to choose from, but I hate Billy Hamilton the most. He’s still learning centerfield and doing so in the minors. When he’s up (Ludwick would have to struggle or Choo/Bruce would get injured), providing he hits, he’ll provide speed no doubt, but that’s it. He doesn’t walk much and got his impressive OBP in the minors with his speed. That’ll be harder in Cincinnati than it was in Pensacola or Bakersfield. Casten currently has four DLed guys (Lewis, Luebke, McCann, and Lawrie) and Hamilton – that’s a lot of wasted roster spots. I just don’t see the upside being worth the lost production. Of course, Rosenthal won’t help Moose much either.

X Factor: SP Brett Myers, Grumpy – A lot of candidates here, but Myers is probably the greatest potential reward for the risk. He could very well be a high K starter with solid rates, which is exactly what a pick-starved team needs. His spring was shitty, but he’s a vet working on a one-year show me contract, so I like the pick.

Round 16

Best Pick: OF Cameron Maybin, Grumpy – In need of some stolen bases, this was a very smart and potentially very beneficial pick for Brandon. He regressed after finally living up to his potential in 2011. It’s not far fetched to expect him to get back to 82 runs and 40 stolen bases with a respectable OBP. At 26, he could be better too. There was reportedly power in those tiny arms at one point in his career, but he is in the wrong park for that.

Runner Up: SP Patrick Corbin, Grumpy – Another nice pick for Casten on a guy who is a bit under the radar due to his 4.54 era, but his xFIP was more than a point lower and he struck out 18.9% while only walking 5.5%. He’s got a good GB%, which is important in Arizona, and I think he could be a sneaky rate stabilizer. Skaggs is looming but he won’t come up if Corbin is playing well.

Worst Pick: 3B Alex Rodriguez, Clayton – At this point, it’s hard to blame anyone for any pick, but I just think this is a waste. He wasn’t good last season, now he’s hurt and no one really knows when he’ll be back or what shape he’ll be in when he does. If you’re going to burn a DL spot, there were better candidates.

X Factor: OF Carlos Quentin, Prestige – There’s a lot of candidates here since there’s not a whole of risk at this point, but clearly Quentin has the most potential reward. He’s apparently feeling better and showed in a brief healthy period last year that he can still produce. He can hit 90/30/100/.350 with 600 abs, but if that was likely, he’d be gone a lot sooner.

Round 17

Best Pick: C Brian McCann, Grumpy – I’d like this a lot more if he was the only injured player Brandon had drafted, but nonetheless, I like it.  There’s a reason McCann has been kept for so long. He’s a great OBP catcher with pop. Unfortunately, he’s not healthy, but once he comes back he should be asset for a team that needed to find assets late.

Runner Up: OF Ryan Ludwick, Angry – Why not? He hit 26 homers with 80 rbis and a .346 obp in 422 games. That’s really quite good. In a great lineup in a small park, why not take a shot that he produces another one of his great seasons? He’s no spring chicken and if Heisey starts taking abs, it may be time to move on, but at this point its not a real loss.

Worst Pick: C Travis d’Arnaud, Sexual – I find it very difficult to imagine a scenario where sacrificing a roster spot for half a season (a fair expected date of arrival) for a catcher will turn out positive. He would really have to come up and mash and that just usually does not happen. Catchers are particularly challenged. Catchers with injury histories are even more challenged. There are some prospects I would agree could be worth it. He is not one of them.

X Factor: TIE SP Scott Kazmir, Prestige, and SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Montezumas – Two former top hurlers go to Cleveland with the hopes of reclaiming their past form. The upside is massive if they can come anywhere near the numbers of their prime, which was not that long ago. However, both will have to realize they are no longer the power pitchers of the past. That's not always easy for people who reach such heights as they did.

Round 18

Best Pick: SS Erick Aybar, Clayton – I don’t like Aybar a lot, but I love him here. Really, he could score 120 bases with a little on-base luck this year. He’s going to certainly see fastballs to hit with Trout in front of him and Hamilton and Pujols behind him. Really, pretty low risk at this point. He may just score 80 runs and steal 25. That’s good too. There’s a lot of shortstops that went late or not at all, but Aybar’s descent surprised me the most.

Runner Up: OF Michael Cuddyer, Sexual – The darling of drafts last year fell hard due to his offseason in his first year in Colorado. He should’ve been much better than 53/13/54/8/.317 in Mile High after experiencing such success in Minnesota. Maybe he will be this year.

Worst Pick: RP Jonny Venters, Sexual – Ummm, why?

X Factor: RP Phil Coke, Montezumas – I grabbed him knowing Rondon had got beat up earlier that day, and knowing Leyland went to Coke to close in the playoffs last year. Not sure he’ll do it in the regular season, but its worth a shot and he surely would’ve gone much sooner if the draft was a day later since Rondon got sent down the next morning. Closing for a great team like Detroit, Mr. Irrelevant could end up being very relevant.