Thursday, June 19, 2014

Midyear(ish) Review



RANKINGS MADNESS

Decided to have some fun with spreadsheets. It is important to note that all these evaluations are based off Yahoo ranks, which we all know are imperfect (we all Jean Machi is not the 71st best fantasy player). However, it is good enough and allows me to do this all without much effort. All of it was purely quantitative (just numbahs), so my views didn’t impact rankings – other than with the top free agents (the player had to be on the team for a significant portion of the time in which the value was produced).

All stats are as of June 18th games.

Top 25 Overall

As opposed to the first time I created this list after Week 3, the cream has risen to the top.  Whereas the total number of keepers, draft picks, and free agent were basically even, the list is now prominently keepers with 15 of 25, followed by 9 draft picks, and 1 lonely free agent (who has dropped 16 spots and is unlikely to end the season here). Any time you can get a draft pick into the top 25, you should be applauded. What really stands out is the players who have never previously been kept before, as it is a sign of a good talent evaluator – Tanaka (Russ), Brantley (Dave), Dozier (Mike), Frazier (Jason), Abreu (Adam).  Take out the first round picks and the biggest picks of the first half go to Dave, Mike, and Jason, cus no one saw those guys coming.

RK
NAME
ORIGINAL TEAM
ACQUIRED VIA
STATS
CURRENT TEAM
1
Troy Tulowitzki
Moose is Loose!
keeper
(56/18/45/1/0.445)

2
Giancarlo Stanton
I Ate The Munchkins
keeper
(51/20/57/5/0.394)

3
Masahiro Tanaka
Mike Ehrman-Trout
draft – 7th
(0/113/1.99/0.95/14)

4
Paul Goldschmidt
Ring of Fire
Keeper
(55/15/52/6/0.378)

5
Johnny Cueto
The Angry Pirates
Draft - 9th (One Nut)
(0/111/1.92/0.83/13)

6
Mike Trout
Mike Ehrman-Trout
Keeper
(47/16/54/9/0.397)

7
Félix Hernández
One Nut Wonders
Keeper
(0/122/2.22/0.95/14)
I Ate The Munchkins
8
Nelson Cruz
Cowhide Joyride
Draft - 11th
(44/22/58/1/0.367)

9
Michael Brantley
Cowhide Joyride
Draft - 15th (Cowhide)
(49/11/46/9/0.391)
Donkey Punchers
10
José Bautista
The Angry Pirates
Keeper
(51/15/48/3/0.432)

11
Adam Wainwright
Donkey Punchers
Keeper
(0/91/2.15/0.93/11)

12
Carlos Gómez
Sexual Napalm
Keeper
(46/12/38/11/0.381)

13
Charlie Blackmon
One Nut Wonders
FA
(43/12/44/12/0.35)

14
Edwin Encarnación
Prestige Worldwide
Keeper
(46/20/54/2/0.344)

15
Víctor Martínez
The Angry Pirates
Draft - 12th
(34/17/45/2/0.385)

16
Josh Donaldson
Anal Hershiser
Keeper
(54/17/52/1/0.338)

17
Miguel Cabrera
I Ate The Munchkins
Keeper
(39/12/56/0/0.372)

18
Andrew McCutchen
Montezuma's Revenge
Keeper
(38/11/41/9/0.432)

19
Brian Dozier
Sexual Napalm
Draft - 16th
(55/15/35/15/0.347)

20
Julio Teherán
Moose is Loose!
Keeper
(0/84/2.31/0.93/13)

21
Yasiel Puig
The Angry Pirates
Keeper
(38/11/42/7/0.416)

22
Todd Frazier
One Nut Wonders
Draft - 20th
(45/16/41/7/0.345)

23
Scott Kazmir
Montezuma's Revenge
Draft -16th
(0/72/2.05/0.98/11)

24
Chris Sale
Keepin it REAL...
Keeper
(0/75/2.2/0.75/7)

25
José Abreu
Montezuma's Revenge
Draft – 7th
(37/20/53/0/0.321)


25 Best Draft Picks

This doesn’t weight the ranks based on where they were taken, but simply gives credit where credit is due for finding the gems that were available. Its not a surprise to see teams at the top of the standings well represented, with about half of the list on Mike, Jason, Pierce or my team. Interesting to see Dave with a few guys high on this list, but only seventh in the standings. This is at least partially explained when you look at the 25 Worst Draft Picks.

#
NAME
DRAFTED BY
RD
STATS
CURRENT TEAM
1
Masahiro Tanaka
Mike Ehrman-Trout
7
(0/113/1.99/0.95/14)

2
Johnny Cueto
One Nut Wonders
9
(0/111/1.92/0.83/13)
The Angry Pirates (traded)
3
Nelson Cruz
Cowhide Joyride
12
(44/22/58/1/0.367)

4
Michael Brantley
Cowhide Joyride
15
(49/11/46/9/0.391)
Donkey Punchers (traded)
5
Víctor Martínez
The Angry Pirates
12
(34/17/45/2/0.385)

6
Brian Dozier
Sexual Napalm
16
(55/15/35/15/0.347)

7
Todd Frazier
One Nut Wonders
20
(45/16/41/7/0.345)

8
Scott Kazmir
Montezuma's Revenge
15
(0/72/2.05/0.98/11)

9
José Abreu
Montezuma's Revenge
7
(37/20/53/0/0.321)

10
José Altuve
Cowhide Joyride
8
(35/2/24/24/0.37)

11
Alexei Ramírez
I Ate The Munchkins
12
(37/7/36/12/0.342)

12
Koji Uehara
Donkey Punchers
11
(15/43/0.83/0.67/0)
The Angry Pirates (traded)
13
Brandon Moss
Sexual Napalm
11
(34/17/55/1/0.359)

14
Jonathan Lucroy
Keepin it REAL...
12
(35/8/37/3/0.405)

15
Brett Gardner
Sexual Napalm
12
(42/6/28/14/0.351)

16
Anthony Rendón
Montezuma's Revenge
19
(44/10/38/5/0.332)

17
Billy Hamilton
Anal Hershiser
7
(33/4/21/28/0.316)

18
Kyle Lohse
Anal Hershiser
20
(0/72/3.09/1.02/12)

19
Tim Hudson
Ring of Fire
19
(0/60/2.39/1.06/10)

20
Daniel Murphy
Moose is Loose!
14
(45/5/26/11/0.353)

21
Huston Street
Keepin it REAL...
16
(19/30/1/0.74/0)

22
Yoenis Céspedes
One Nut Wonders
7
(39/13/48/1/0.313)

23
Steve Cishek
Ring of Fire
16
(16/40/2.05/1.01/0)

24
Mark Buehrle
I Ate The Munchkins
22
(0/59/2.32/1.23/12)
One Nut Wonders (traded)
25
John Lackey
Keepin it REAL...
14
(0/90/2.96/1.15/12)


25 Best Value Picks

This weights where the guys were drafted, so rank – pick number = value. No, Mike Morse hasn’t been the best player, but he was a bargain where Lars got him in the last round. A popular occurrence is teams load up on offensive players in the draft, only to drop them later for more starting pitching. That’s because its pretty easy to identify a good hitter compared to a great SP.  Buehrle, Lohse, Hughes, Hudson, Kazmir, Peralta weren’t highly sought heading into the draft, but they’ve paid off big time. Two interesting players of note are the guys that were dropped on this list. Mike surely is regretting dropping Khrush Davis, who turned it on shortly after he was dropped, but Lars really lost a gem in Derek Norris – a selection I scoffed at due to playing time hindrances, but he’s been awesome  

#
NAME
RK
TEAM
RD
STATS
CURRENT
1
Michael Morse
63
Prestige Worldwide
24 
(32/13/44/0/0.343)

2
Todd Frazier
22
One Nut Wonders
20
(45/16/41/7/0.345)

3
Mark Buehrle
61
I Ate The Munchkins
22
(0/59/2.32/1.23/12)
One Nut Wonders (traded)
4
Kyle Lohse
48
Anal Hershiser
20
(0/72/3.09/1.02/12)

5
Phil Hughes
80
One Nut Wonders
23
(0/78/3.09/1.1/10)

6
Marlon Byrd
94
Keepin it REAL...
24
(34/11/42/1/0.32)

7
Tim Hudson
49
Ring of Fire
19
(0/60/2.39/1.06/10)

8
Anthony Rendón
45
Montezuma's Revenge
19
(44/10/38/5/0.332)

9
Howie Kendrick
118
Mike Ehrman-Trout
23
(38/4/28/9/0.341)

10
Brian Dozier
19
Sexual Napalm
16
(55/15/35/15/0.347)

11
Michael Brantley
9
Cowhide Joyride
15
(49/11/46/9/0.391)
Donkey Punchers (traded)
12
Justin Morneau
81
Cowhide Joyride
20
(28/11/44/0/0.335)

13
Ángel Pagán
105
One Nut Wonders
21
(37/3/19/11/0.356)
Urban Achievers (traded)
14
Scott Kazmir
23
Montezuma's Revenge
15
(0/72/2.05/0.98/11)

15
Huston Street
51
Keepin it REAL...
16
(19/30/1/0.74/0)

16
Joakim Soria
77
Anal Hershiser
18
(15/34/1.8/0.64/0)

17
Torii Hunter
155
Ring of Fire
23
(31/9/35/1/0.29)

18
Jimmy Rollins
137
Anal Hershiser
22
(35/8/26/11/0.34)

19
Miguel Montero
144
Montezuma's Revenge
22
(27/10/40/0/0.356)

20
Steve Cishek
56
Ring of Fire
16
(16/40/2.05/1.01/0)

21
Khris Davis
78
Sexual Napalm
17
(30/8/35/0/0.416)
Urban Achievers (dropped)
22
Adam LaRoche
130
Anal Hershiser
21
(34/17/45/2/0.385)

23
Víctor Martínez
15
The Angry Pirates
12
(24/8/34/2/0.416)

24
Derek Norris
140
Prestige Worldwide
21
(0/67/2.98/1.23/10)
Anal Hershiser (dropped)
25
Wily Peralta
132
Donkey Puncher
20
(30/8/35/0/0.416)

25 Worst Picks

Nobody wants this, but it is unavoidable. Surely, there’s a few guys who you liked heading into the draft and were pissed when they were selected. The real killers are those real early picks like Gyorko, Salazar (damnit), Liriano, Miller, and Cingriani. But even late, you’re often deciding between two or three guys and hope you get it right. Sometimes you’re deciding between Tim Hudson and Ricky Nolasco and you go with the guy with the greater upside and lose the opportunity to gain a vital cog in your rotation.

#
NAME
TEAM
RK
RD
STATS
1
Clay Buchholz
Cowhide Joyride
1423
12
(0/39/7.02/1.98/5)
2
Alex Guerrero
Cowhide Joyride
1385
20
(0/0/0/0/0)
3
Jedd Gyorko
Anal Hershiser
1060
8
(13/5/24/2/0.213)
4
Ricky Nolasco
The Angry Pirates
1184
19
(0/61/5.66/1.57/5)
5
Dan Uggla
Prestige Worldwide
1122
15
(13/2/10/0/0.243)
6
Will Middlebrooks
Keepin it REAL...
1072
13
(9/2/9/0/0.305)
7
Jake Peavy
Keepin it REAL...
1023
12
(0/67/4.53/1.44/8)
8
Danny Salazar
Montezuma's Revenge
959
9
(0/47/5.53/1.62/2)
9
Justin Masterson
Prestige Worldwide
996
12
(0/74/5.05/1.52/6)
10
Ubaldo Jiménez
Urban Achievers
1009
15
(0/68/4.86/1.51/4)
11
Francisco Liriano
One Nut Wonders
908
8
(0/77/4.6/1.45/3)
12
Brad Miller
Urban Achievers
914
10
(23/5/18/3/0.259)
13
Jim Johnson
Keepin it REAL...
984
16
(2/19/6.18/2.06/0)
14
Nick Swisher
Montezuma's Revenge
985
16
(18/4/20/0/0.294)
15
Chris Tillman
Urban Achievers
964
15
(0/58/4.82/1.49/7)
16
Tony Cingrani
Anal Hershiser
891
10
(0/58/4.52/1.49/3)
17
Grady Sizemore
Mike Ehrman-Trout
966
17
(14/2/15/5/0.288)
18
José Veras
Prestige Worldwide
940
18
(0/13/8.1/1.73/0)
19
Corey Hart
One Nut Wonders
938
18
(12/5/17/2/0.295)
20
Mike Moustakas
Mike Ehrman-Trout
928
18
(17/7/26/0/0.24)
21
Tim Lincecum
Montezuma's Revenge
833
11
(0/76/4.81/1.49/7)
22
Zack Wheeler
Sexual Napalm
823
11
(0/79/4.38/1.42/8)
23
CC Sabathia
Cowhide Joyride
834
12
(0/48/5.28/1.48/2)
24
Chase Headley
Donkey Punchers
839
12
(19/6/23/2/0.288)
25
J.J. Hardy
Ring of Fire
829
12
(18/0/15/0/0.318)


Top 25 Free Agent Pickups

Lower in the list, I had to decide whether to include some guys.  Chisenhall isn’t on here as he gained a significant amount of value on the wire, then on my team, then on Chris’ team, so I can’t really hand out credit. Former part-time closers like Melancon and Broxton were left off as well as they were quickly discarded upon losing their title (and middle relievers tend to rank high).  Each of the top five were pretty early pickups (besides maybe Keuchel) by their respective teams, so those guys get a lot of credit. Playing the wire is an integral component of building a successful team, and as you can see, few teams like to get rid of these gems.

#
NAME
RK
PICKED UP BY
STATS
CURRENT TEAM
1
Charlie Blackmon
13
One Nut Wonders
(43/12/44/12/0.35)

2
Dee Gordon
27
Sexual Napalm
(38/2/21/37/0.33)

3
Dallas Keuchel
36
Moose is Loose!
(0/79/2.63/1.06/11)

4
Melky Cabrera
38
I Ate The Munchkins
(44/10/35/4/0.338)

5
Francisco Rodríguez
41
Montezuma's Revenge
(22/39/2.29/0.93/0)

6
Jason Hammel
60
Sexual Napalm
(0/85/3.02/1.02/9)

7
Zach Britton
64
Moose is Loose!
(9/28/0.72/0.88/0)

8
Alfredo Simón
69
Sexual Napalm
(0/55/3.05/1.11/12)
Donkey Punchers (traded)
9
Garrett Richards
72
Montezuma's Revenge
(0/87/2.87/1.11/10)

10
Josh Beckett
73
Montezuma's Revenge
(0/76/2.49/1.03/7)

11
Sean Doolittle
74
Sexual Napalm
(9/48/2.12/0.62/0)

12
Marcell Ozuna
85
The Angry Pirates
(34/12/42/2/0.31)

13
Alcides Escobar
91
Ring of Fire
(34/2/23/18/0.331)

14
Tanner Roark
92
I Ate The Munchkins
(0/69/2.85/1.1/10)

15
Joaquín Benoit
111
Keepin it REAL...
(1/37/1.47/0.75/0)

16
Jesse Chavez
112
One Nut Wonders
(0/78/2.93/1.2/9)

17
Collin McHugh
135
The Angry Pirates
(0/66/3.03/1.08/5)

18
Jason Vargas
145
Anal Hershiser
(0/71/3.25/1.21/12)

19
Cody Allen
152
Ring of Fire
(7/39/2.7/1.13/0)

20
Danny Duffy
177
Moose is Loose!
(0/42/2.83/1.11/4)

21
Drew Pomeranz
186
Montezuma's Revenge
(0/48/2.91/1.24/2)

22
Roenis Elías
203
Cowhide Joyride
(0/80/3.91/1.2/5)

23
Bud Norris
211
I Ate The Munchkins
(0/56/3.73/1.17/5)

24
Héctor Rondón
213
Ring of Fire
(7/32/2.36/1.2/0)

25
Wei-Yin Chen
213
I Ate The Munchkins
(0/60/3.78/1.24/6)


Top Keeper Groups

The core of your team can greatly impact the course of your team’s season. Perhaps it should come as no surprise that four of the top five team by average ranks of their six keepers are in the top five overall (Mike is 7th due almost entirely to Machado).  Having one or two good guys is great, but you really need four to six good (and healthy) ones. An interesting case study here is Russ, who is near the bottom of the actual standings. He’s second overall, but if you look at preseason expectations, his average should be in the 50s at worst. It lends support to the draft missteps he recently acknowledged (Profar, Belt, Castellanos, Sizemore, Mous, Feliz, Brothers), even though he nailed his first pick.

#
TEAM
AVG RK
KEEPERS (original teams)
1
One Nut Wonders
89.8
Adam Jones
Félix Hernández
Adrián González
José Reyes
Xander Bogaerts
Ian Kinsler
2
Mike Ehrman-Trout
99.5
Mike Trout
Clayton Kershaw
Robinson Canó
Hanley Ramírez
Carlos González
Gerrit Cole
3
Keepin it REAL...
117.5
Chris Sale
Jacoby Ellsbury
Ian Desmond
Max Scherzer
Jason Heyward
Dustin Pedroia
4
Montezuma's Revenge
127.2
Andrew McCutchen
Anthony Rizzo
José Fernández
Cole Hamels
Shin-Soo Choo
Jean Segura
5
I Ate The Munchkins
137.0
Giancarlo Stanton
Ryan Braun
Miguel Cabrera
Jordan Zimmermann
David Wright
Carlos Santana
6
The Angry Pirates
168.7
José Bautista
Yasiel Puig
Gio González
Justin Upton
Craig Kimbrel
Domonic Brown
7
Sexual Napalm
198.2
Carlos Gómez
Yu Darvish
Freddie Freeman
Stephen Strasburg
Adrián Béltre
Manny Machado
8
Moose is Loose!
221.7
Troy Tulowitzki
Julio Teherán
Zack Greinke
Chris Davis
Cliff Lee
Carlos Beltrán
9
Donkey Punchers
260.5
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Seager
Matt Carpenter
Matt Holliday
Alex Cobb
Prince Fielder
10
Ring of Fire
302.3
Paul Goldschmidt
Hunter Pence
Matt Kemp
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
Ryan Zimmerman
11
Cowhide Joyride
334.8
David Price
Eric Hosmer
Buster Posey
Pablo Sandoval
Allen Craig
Oscar Taveras
12
Prestige Worldwide
336.3
Edwin Encarnación
Alex Gordon
Jayson Werth
Evan Longoria
Mark Trumbo
Mike Minor
13
Anal Hershiser
340.5
Josh Donaldson
Madison Bumgarner
George Springer
Brian McCann
Wil Myers
Justin Verlander
14
Urban Achievers
398.3
Jason Kipnis
Álex Ríos
Albert Pujols
Starling Marte
Matt Cain
Bryce Harper


Average Rank of Original Roster

I completely acknowledge that this has very little value. Everyone’s roster fluctuated shortly after the draft because of injuries, waiver pickups, NA demotions, restructurings, etc. But what this shows is Pierce’s talent as a GM.  Not only is he easily in first here, but he’s fourth in the overall standings and he’s only made SEVEN pickups (no other team has less than 15). Now, the Real Ranks have consistently shown he’s benefited from matchup luck, but he hit on some great picks (Iwakuma 10th, Lucroy 12th, Yelich 13th, Lackey 14th, Street 16th, Howard 18th, Eovaldi 23rd, and Byrd 24th) to go with his group of high-functioning keepers.

#
TEAM
AVG RK
1
Keepin it REAL...
289.7
2
Sexual Napalm
322.5
3
Montezuma's Revenge
344.0
4
The Angry Pirates
363.7
5
Moose is Loose!
400.2
6
Mike Ehrman-Trout
402.1
7
Donkey Punchers
414.6
8
Cowhide Joyride
417.1
9
Urban Achievers
419.9
10
Anal Hershiser
424.7
11
Ring of Fire
425.8
12
Prestige Worldwide
428.9
13
I Ate The Munchkins
448.3
14
One Nut Wonders
450.2

First Round Picks

Last one just shows what we all tend to focus on leading up to the draft, which is the first round. Some teams nailed it, some whiffed, some got hit by the injury bug.
PICK
TEAM
PLAYER
RK
1
One Nut Wonders
Yoenis Céspedes
54
2
The Angry Pi...
Anibal Sánchez
98
3
Anal Hershiser
Billy Hamilton
46
4
Donkey Punchers
Ben Zobrist
385
5
Urban Achievers
Pedro Álvarez
159
6
I Ate The Mu...
Mat Latos
387
7
Prestige Wor...
David Ortiz
107
8
Sexual Napalm
Desmond Jennings
201
9
Montezuma's ...
José Abreu
25
10
Moose is Loose!
Joe Mauer
394
11
Cowhide Joyride
Josh Hamilton
773
12
Ring of Fire
James Shields
169
13
Mike Ehrman-...
Masahiro Tanaka
3
14
Keepin it RE...
Billy Butler
289

1 comment:

  1. Nice write-up. I was trying to figure out why my team is so shitty and you have confirmed all my suspicions. The Anal Hershiser fire sale may soon commence.

    ReplyDelete