Trade Review: One Nut and Urban

One Nut receives:

SP Gio Gonzalez WSH

RP Kenley Jensen LAD

18^th rounder

Urban receives:

2B Ian Kinsler DET

OF Angel Pagan SF

24^th rounder

The follow-up that was anticipated to Kipnis deal, I have to say I was a little surprised it wasn’t a better starter and a worse reliever since top-line starter is really chief among Jason’s needs. Gio has been a very good pitcher the last couple of years, but this year has been a lot of mediocrity with a 4.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 56% QS%, albeit with fine K numbers (9.4 K/9). His underlying numbers suggest he’s pitched better (3.73 xFIP, 3.50 FIP) than that, but he’s currently on the DL with shoulder inflammation. That could be nothing or it could be a lingering problem that causes his already spotty control to suffer. We’ll see more after his rehab start this weekend. He’s got three straight seasons of 192+ Ks and a sub-3.40 ERA, so it makes sense for Jason to go this route, but I would’ve thought he’d go for someone a little more reliable. Jensen is obviously awesome and a clear need after Melancon lost his job and Belisario is a pretty crappy closer. With Kipnis back from the DL, he didn’t need Kinsler and still has one of the league’s top offenses.

Considering Gio’s performance to date and injury, Dan gets the best player in the deal in a healthy Kinsler who is doing enough everywhere (39/4/23/6/.331) to be a great addition after early pick Aaron Hill has failed to produce. He also gains in speed, giving him three OF in Rios, Marte, and Pagan with more than 10 steals. Perhaps he could find a suitor and make gains in the power dept. Pagan isn’t great, but he’s a nice fill in and won’t hurt you anywhere. Meanwhile, with Robertson, Rodney, and Grilli, Jensen was expendable and with Cain, Pineda, and Harper on the mend, its tough holding that many injured guys. He’s also got a good mix of veteran starters who should improve as the year goes on (Dickey, Ubaldo, Cain, Haren, and Tillman), so Gio isn’t a huge loss.

From a keeper perspective, I think Gio and Kinsler are both in the lower tier, but decent keepers when healthy, so it’s a wash there. You could make a case for Jensen, but I won’t listen to it. The pick doesn’t move the dial a lot for me since its so late, but it was smart of Jason to insist on being compensated for the additional injury risk.

Overall, pretty even in terms of value, but Dan gets the near-term boost until we know what Gio will be.