Trade Review: Cowhide and Donkey

Cowhide gets

2B Ben Zobrist TB

SP Hyun Jun Ryu LAD

22^nd Rounder

Donkey gets

OF Michael Brantley CLE

1B Eric Hosmer KC

16^th rounder

Don’t get this one for Dave. On one hand, he’s selling Brantley for much lower than his 13^th rank calls for, while also selling low on Hosmer for much lower than his ample prospect promise and preseason hype calls for.  Ryu is a great #3 or 4, but his lack of strikeout power (7.9 K/9) caps his upside to something less than an ace. He doesn’t give up homers and his ERA is in line with his underlying stats, so he’s very safe, but I would want more than safe for giving up one of the top performers in the league and one of the top young first basemen in the league. No, I don’t think Brantley will keep this up, but the whole point of dealing someone at a high point is to get quality you couldn’t have got based on initial assessments. If you looked at this trade before the season, you’d say “Wow Dave gave up a really good player (Hosmer) and a fillin for a decent starter and a has-been OBP league specialist… why did he have to give up a pick too?” This Zobrist isn’t Dagan’s old faithful Zobrist. This is a decent substitute who lacks power (.098 ISO this year vs .169 career) and doesn’t run anymore (since 2010, SBs have dropped from 24 to 19 to 14 to 11 last year, and on pace for 8 this year). He’s eight days younger than me, and being 33 means his current pace of 67/8/27/8/.331 might not change much (though RBIs will go up a lot). Thumb injuries can be tough too, so there’s that concern as well.

My love/hate relationship with Hos is well-documented. I picked him up three years ago after his call-up and immediately fell in love, keeping him as a core keeper heading into the next year. He struggled to the tune of 65/14/60/16/.304, but I kept him again, not willing to give up on this 22 year-old former high pick. But midway through last season, I had enough. He had one homer through June and I needed to deal him while he still had some name value. I dealt him to Jason with an injured Kinsler and injured Street for Anthony Rizzo and John Lackey. Jason dealt him and seven rounds to Dave for Lester six days after our trade.  The day the trade went through, Hosmer hit a homer and he stayed hot throughout the rest of the season, ending the year at 86/17/79/11/.354 and accumulating all sorts of hype heading into this season, so much so that ESPN had him as a top 10 overall long-term keeper.

The date I officially gave up on Hosmer and hit the accept button was June 7, 2013. Look at your calendar. There’s plenty of time for this 24-year-old pedigree-filled first bagger to turn it around. I got lucky and nabbed a long-term piece in Rizzo, who is paying dividends this year. I worry Dave didn’t get anything back here that will be valuable for the long haul. Conversely, Chris Shannon has done a nice job of not panicking while sitting in the basement of the standings and sold Zobrist while he still had name value and recognized the potential value in Hosmer regaining his stud keeper form and Brantley potentially not being a one half wonder.

Clearly, I side with Mr. Shannon on this one.