Deadline Trade Reviews

One Nut (4 trades) received:

Melky Cabrera, Ryan Dempster, John Axford, Andre Ethier, 1st (CNLS), 5th,
11th, 14th,16th, and 17th rounders

Gave up:

Jason Bartlett, Scott Baker, Josh Johnson, Dexter Fowler, Jake Peavy, 1st (UA), 3rd , 3rd, 11th 13th, 14th rounders

Jason no doubt took a difficult, yet successful week 19 to heart as he went 9-0-1 on the week, but only because Urban Achievers did anything but achieve. It moved him up to second place in the standings, a mere 4.5 games out of first with two weeks to go, but he has a tough remaining schedule (Keepin It, Prestige). In total, the one-day splurge cost him a 19-round downgrade and the chance to trade Josh Johnson for more before next season. The moves could possibly push him over the top this year, though Ethier hasn’t done much since his hit streak and Jason obviously has more faith in Melky than I do. He really needs Hanley to be back and productive and for Lind to get back on track. Axford is a nice addition, while Cahill isn’t as bad as his overall numbers indicate and he didn’t have to give up much (just because Urban Achievers has the worst record does not mean it will automatically be the first pick; in fact, there’s a chance the Colon NLS pick could be better). Dempster has pitched better since an atrocious start and is a good add, creating quite the strikeout-focused staff.

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Angry Pirates (4 trades) received:

Josh Johnson, 3rd, 9th, 11th, 14th rounders

Gave up:

Andre Ethier, Jordan Walden, John Axford, Joel Hanrahan, 11th, 11th, 14th, 18th rounders

Overall, Kyle did a good job aggressively selling his closers and gaining 17 rounds in the process, while landing Josh Johnson, who will be risky, but certainly keeper-worthy going into next year (providing he doesn’t need surgery). When some douchebag (myself) wouldn’t just accept Hanrahan for a two-round upgrade (I didn’t think Joel was much of an upgrade over Nathan), he went out and found someone who’d give him three. Most just cave, but his approach helped him get situated nicely for next season, despite the relatively late call to end his playoff run.

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Ring of Fire (2 trades) receives:

Joel Hanrahan, Brandon Beachy 15th, 18th rounders

Gave up:

Garrett Jones, 11th,14th rounders

A couple of nice additions after a motivated Dagan got on track with a much-needed 10-0 thrashing of the Pirates, which vaulted him from outside the playoff picture to #7. And he’s got the juice to make even more noise before the end of the season with the beleaguered Colon NLS this week, then a matchup with Anal before the playoffs. Still, even with the additions, it really only provides a dominant bullpen and yet another useful, but not quite great starter. The pitching will really dictate how far Dagan’s team can go. As far as what he gave up, seems appropriate and worthwhile given who he was replacing (Venters, Jones).

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Colon No like Salad (2 trades) receive

Garrett Jones, Scott Baker, UA’s 1st, 11th rounder

Gave up:

Brandon Beachy, Trevor Cahill, CNL’s 1st , (UA),15th

I really liked the Beachy move for Russ, especially considering I basically gave him away in the Hamels trade – nice way for Russ to capitalize on the assets he had. I don’t really understand the 1st rounder swap in the Cahill deal, though. Sure, it’ll be nice if it turns into the number one pick, but he could’ve easily traded away the number one pick with the lottery system we have in place. Baker has been a better pitcher than Cahill this year, but he’s injured and that value doesn’t help Russ anymore. I just felt he could’ve got something more definite for Cahill.

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Keepin It Real (1 trade) receives:

Jordan Walden, 11th rounder

Gave up:

Aaron Harang, 9th rounder

A great addition for Pierce, who was probably more low-key than he could’ve been during the bevy of trades over the past two months. That said, his team is good. Walden finalizes a makeshift bullpen built on the fly, which now includes Walden, Santos and Guerra – a threesome that could easily sneak the category away from those with deeper pens. If he gets A-Rod back at a reasonable level of production, Pierce could do some serious damage. My only complaint about his roster is he really could’ve used another pitcher or two (Danks and Billingsley would’ve made sense) with Hanson hurt. A trade with Moose where he sent Pineda and picks for MYoung, Danks, and Billinglsey would’ve made a lot of sense, as the starts for the young Seattle hurler are becoming less and less reliable.

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Urban Achievers (1 trade) receives:

Blake Beavan, 14th rounder

Anal Hershiser (1 trade) receives:

Mariano Rivera, 18th rounder

Nice move on both parts. For someone who was supposedly thinking about keeping Mo, Dan didn’t really seem to be convinced of the idea, settling for a four-round upgrade for the best closer in the game – not really the going rate for a keeper. Perhaps he concluded, as most have, that closers are not keeper-worthy. There were a lot of silly trades in terms of pick compensation and I think four rounds is a fair rate for an upper-echelon closer. There’s a lot of teams with impressive bullpens, but a closer only does so much. A great one can contribute to Ks and most provide some rate protection, but really it’s all about the saves--and the amount they can accumulate is directly related to the team as a whole, making it difficult to know just who will dominate the category. In the end, if you’ve got three or four closers with full time gigs, you should feel pretty comfortable with that part of your team.

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Moose is Loose receive:

Dexter Fowler, Jake Peavy, 3rd, 13th, 14th rounder

Gave up:

Melky Cabrera, Ryan Dempster, 5th, 16th, 17th rounders

Although it sounded like he was going to get aggressive, Brian didn’t maximize the value of his roster if he was indeed giving up. Frankly, his menu of prices was like putting a high-end steakhouse in the ghetto. There just wasn’t the appetite for that price. Now it looks like his keepers are decent/mediocre with McCann, Uggla, MYoung, Tulo, BUpton, and Greinke and he had at least a dozen rounds of upgrades available had he traded guys like THunter, JDanks, CBillingsley, DFister, RWolf, JPierre, APagan, and Kubel. The best thing I think he could’ve done is improved keepers like Young, who is tremendously valuable this season due to his versatility and place in the powerful Texas lineup. But he’s going to be 36 next year. Upton was another one he could’ve improved. He did make some trades prior to the deadline that improved his draft for next year, including this one with Jason, which I believe he did quite well on. But, in the end, he had a lot of mid-level, useful talent and I see this as a missed opportunity.

Trade Review - Anal and Moose

Anal Hershiser receives:

Mark Reynolds, JJ Putz, Jason Isringhusen, Jeff Franceour, 13th, 15th rounders

Moose is Lose receives:

Danny Valencia, Al Albuquerque, Tyler Clippard, Josh Reddick, 4th, 7th rounders

It was a lot to give up in terms of draft pick compensation, but no question this was a great move for the 2011 Anal team. He traded four guys who really belonged on the waiver wire and secured his 3B position (as secure as the up and down Reynolds can be), while picking up a solid bench player in Frenchy and two closers , which gives him one of the best bullpens in the league (with BWilson and Feliz). With the Avila trade, this is a pretty balanced offense. Andy has a few great SPs (Verlander, Haren, Cueto, potentially Strasburg) and a Who’s Who of guys whose name you might’ve not known before the season but have performed well (Vogelsong, Moseley, Worley, Collmenter, Beavan, and Humber), so this could either go very well or end very quickly for the newcomer. Sitting in 5th place, this has undoubtedly been a positive inaugural season for the Hershisers.

Trade Review - Cowhide and Prestige

Cowhide Joyride receives:

Dillon Gee, Jonathan Sanchez, Rick Ankiel, 8th rounder

Prestige Worldwide receives:

Hideki Matsui, Brett Cecil, Luke Hochevar, 9th rounder

The question here is not the draft pick compensation – a measly one round upgrade – it’s whether the players replaced are actually better for Lars. Matsui, no question, is better than Ankiel and has been one of the hottest hitters in the league since the all-start break (.470 obp!!). Both Hochevar and Cecil have ERAs over 4 (almost 5 for Hoche), whips over 1.30, and underwhelming strikeout totals on the year – though both have pitched better over the last month with ERAs closer to 3 and whips a hair over 1. Meanwhile Gee and Sanchez have better overall numbers, but have pitched poorly over the last month. Not a whole lot lost for Lars, but I wonder if Sanchez (who has over 1k/inning) will come back to bite him. Meanwhile, Dave didn’t get much of an upgrade, but he wasn’t getting much. Seems like, with Morrison to the minors, this teams has been thoroughly liquidated.

Trade Review - Montezumas and Urban

Montezumas Revenge receives:

Cameron Maybin, 12th rounder

Urban Achievers receives:

Jason Bourgeois, 10th rounder

Not much here other than I received a slightly better base stealer for a slightly better pick. Bourgeois has struggled when he’s had full time plate appearances and he’s played a bit over his head this year. Plus he’s gotten injured a lot and is a 29yo who never really did anything, while Maybin finally seems to be living up to his name recognition, stealing 30 bases so far.

Trade Review - Colon and Keepin It Real

Keepin It Real receives:

Sergio Santos, Javy Guerra, 13th rounder

Colon No Like Salad receives:

Raul Ibanez, Carlos Carrasco, 9th rounder

In a frantic series of moves to prep his roster for the playoffs, Pierce finally has something that resembles a bullpen. Resembles is the key word. There’s still some work here to do before he’s actually got enough to win the category over some of the other playoff teams, most of which have 3-4 stud closers. While Santos is good, I traded him because Ozzie likes to switch things up and play matchups, vulturing saves from Santos even when he’s playing well (like last night, for example). But a four round upgrade is a fair price for two mediocre closers.

Trade review - Cowhide and Keepin it Real

Cowhide Joyride receives:

8th rounder

Keepin It Real receives:

Matt Joyce, Edwin Encarnacion, 11th rounder

An interesting trade in that Pierce receives a first half wonder (Joyce) and a second half wonder (Encarnacion). He didn’t have to give up a whole lot (a three round upgrade) to get them, but I still wonder how they fit on this team. With Trumbo, Wright, Sandoval, Ellsbury, Ichiro, Markakis and Werth, it seems like he gave up draft positions for a couple bench players. That said, Joyce was extremely valuable when he was hot and Edwin has been magnificent over the past three weeks, so if you can catch lightning in a bottle and both are hot at the same time, they could just ride Pierce to his firs t championship.

Dave, meanwhile, is closing a very successful few weeks of negotiations that yielded three extra picks in the 5th, one extra in the 6th and 7th, and two extras in the 8th and 9th, where he will stop drafting for the evening. He did so by not asking too much for his leftovers (he’s still got Morrison and HMatsui, by the way), settling for picks outside the top four rounds. Surely, he’ll be able to fill in nicely around BPosey, PFielder, RWeeks, EAndrus, RZimmerman, and TLincecum.

Trade Review - Ring of Fire and One Nut

Ring of Fire receives:

Brandon League, 18th rounder

Moose Is Loose receives:

Jon Rauch, 9th rounder

Dagan gave up an awful lot here for a closer period, nevermind one on a bad team. He’s definitely an improvement over Rauch, but I think a four-round upgrade would more than suffice – especially considering the number of closers that are available. Nine rounds is a lot and, in my opinion, more than the market called for.

Meanwhile, Brian made out well, but is going to have to work hard over the next three days to get full value out of his roster. Keepers can be traded for in the offseason, however the value of his non-keepers disappears after the trading deadline.

Trade Review - Angry Pirates and One Nut

Angry Pirates receive:

AJ Burnett, 4th, 10th, and 11th rounders

One Nut receives

Gio Gonzalez, Max Scherzer, Scott Baker, and 14th, 15th, and 16th rounders

It appears another team bites the dust, as Kyle sold off the heart of his pitching staff for draft picks, despite being slotted in the last playoff spot with a seven game lead on Dagan. Baker went back on the DL and appears to be having some trouble staying healthy, which is too bad considering he has had a great season. Gio’s stats have regressed to what you would normally expect and he is now solidly a non-keeper, despite some midseason discussion that suggested otherwise. Scherzer, meanwhile, is all over the place with the occasional six-run blowups mixed in with stellar performances, outings with one K then one with nine – sort of what we’ve come to expect from him. Overall, the threesome fit in well with Jason’s extremely volatile team. It could mean he trounces his way through the playoffs, or it could mean his ratings kill him. He’s certainly got Ks and Saves. It will be interesting to see how playoff teams structure their rosters going forward. So far, it seems the need for an offensive bench has gone out the window and teams are stacking up pitchers. Should be interesting.

Meanwhile, Kyle made a tough decision. He could’ve either traded picks for more pitching or traded off what he had for picks and he’s chosen the latter. He’ll have to move quickly to take full advantage before the trade deadline. Not sure if this was the right way to go so close to the trade. He made out pretty well here with one nice high pick and then some good upgrades for pitchers who are decent, but not great.

Trade Review - Donkey and Colon

Donkey Punchers receive:

Roy Halladay, Alexi Oganda, Jeff Niemann, 14th, 15th

Colon No Like Salad receive:

Trevor Cahill, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, 1st rounder, 7th rounder

The second place Donkey Punchers continued to be aggressive as the deadline approaches, matching Montezuma’s trade with Russ a day prior. The trade values were similar ( I gave a 1st, 10th, and 13th) and both addressed the needs of the team, with Chris adding significant depth to his rotation while chopping off the wounded appendages. Oganda is an interesting one in that there’s been ongoing concern that his history as a reliever would eventually catch up to him and he’d regress terribly. That hasn’t happened, but he has been prone to some nasty, unexpected blowouts from time to time, as seen with his shoddy performance versus Seattle on Tuesday. Niemann, meanwhile, has been great since coming off the DL, looking similar to how he looked in the first half of 2010. If he continues that path of good halves, then this could be a nice add for Chris. Meanwhile, a keeper lineup of Bautista, Teixera, Crawford, Cruz, Halladay and Berkman (maybe Ackley) looks pretty good heading into 2012 as well.

Meanwhile, Russ gets what he sought out when he began last week and will have three first round picks to go along with Cano, Hamilton, Cargo, Felix, Kershaw, and Wainwright. Not bad and may challenge Casten for most jerkoffable roster after the 2012 draft. Considering he gave up Mike Stanton and Gio to get Felix and Hamels (freeing up Halladay to be traded), that was a nice move by Russ, even if it didn’t get him to the playoffs this year. He’s still got some pieces he could trade off too before the deadline comes up, so it may get even better. But considering the depth of talent available on the open market, Russ did well in a short period of time.

So, overall, mission accomplished for both teams. Well done, gentlemen.

Trade Review - Donkey and Urban

Donkey Punchers receive:

Derek Jeter, 17th rounder

Urban Achievers receive:

Erick Aybar, 7th rounder

As off as this may look on the surface, with Aybar approximately 50 spots higher in the overall Yahoo! Ranking and an impressive steals total, I like the acquisition for Chris. Jeter has turned things around since hitting number 3,000 and looks like his old self, sitting on top of that impressive Yankee lineup. Meanwhile, Aybar has slowed considerably and has been very mediocre over the last month. So, the move makes sense, though it leaves him relying almost solely on Coco to provide steals (though, one would hope Crawford gets moving soon). With that, I also think Chris gave up much more than he needed to for what was really not a huge upgrade talent-wise. At this point in the year and with so much mid-level talent available for only minor draft pick upgrades, 10 rounds is a lot to get someone who has had a pretty mediocre season overall. But if Jeter continues the level of production from the past month over the next two months, it could prove more than worth it.

On that note, Dan did a great job upgrading a pick for someone who has certainly worn out his welcome among the list of annual keepers. Surely, there wasn’t a whole lot of competition for Jeter’s services among the contenders, so however he sold it, he sold it well. The ceiling for the 7th round in 2011 was ESantana, CWilson, JGracia, which is quite good. So, while its perplexing that Dan wasn’t more aggressive in liquidating prior to the onset of fellow dumpers, considering he called it a season more than a month ago, good to see him back at it. There’s still some good pieces to move between now and Sunday.

Overall, liked the move for Chris, but the pick differential probably should’ve been smaller.

Trade Review - Montezuma and Colon

Colon No Like Salad receives:

Adam Dunn, Sergio Santos, Brandon Beachy, 1st rounder, 10th rounder, 13th rounder

Montezumas Revenge receives:

Cole Hamels, Craig Kimbrel, Gaby Sanchez, 16th, 17th, 18th picks

Every trade deadline needs a big blockbuster and this may be the first of several. Russ has officially called it a season following a bit of bad luck and some general draft disappointments, but he made quick work gobbling an additional first rounder and couple nice mid rounders while dealing off his late round picks. And he actually picked up a few nice players that could enhance the rosters of some teams in the league, namely Santos and Beachy, though Dunn would be a worthwhile speculative pick for a late rounder. And he’s still got Halladay waiting there to be scooped up for another first rounder, as well as some other nice rosterable pieces in Alexei, Weiters, Guerra, Ogando, Neimann and Zambrano. That said, its definitely a buyer’s market so it might be difficult to sell off all the pieces before the trade deadline on Sunday.

For me, well, I could’ve waited for the price to go down, but I didn’t want to chance it. Unlike past deals where I’ve enhanced my rosters through player-for-player trades, I felt a little dirty doing this one. I love the players, but I also feel like I just spent my son’s college fund on a Vegas vacation. Not having a first round pick next year will suck and you could argue that my roster was good enough as it was to win it all, but it was also a bit of a defensive move. Any numbers of playoff teams could grab one or both of these aces and suddenly my team strength of starting pitching is compromised. This gives me a rotation of Hamels, Beckett, Kennedy, Oswalt, Masterson (look at the numbers, he’s an ace), ESantana, Kuroda, Stauffer, Bedard, and Luebke – not an ERA over 3.5 or a whip over 1.23 amongst them (besides Oswalt) and they’ve all done pretty well at avoiding blowups this year. I wouldn’t have given up a first without gaining a keeper and I got a great one in Hamels, whose been just as good as Halladay and is 27. Santana, Hosmer, JUpton, Rasmus, Kinsler and Hamels is a pretty nice group of keepers I think. Meanwhile, I stay away from the whimsys of Ozzie Guillen (not to mention his crappy team) by dropping Santos, and, obviously, Gaby Sanchez is a huge upgrade over Adam Dunn, who I still don’t understand. It’s possible I make another move or two, but right now I think the roster can compete for a championship.

So, both teams got what they wanted. Whether they capitalize on it (a great draft pick for Russ, a championship for me), is another story entirely.

Trade Review - Anal and Ring of Fire

Anal Hershiser receives:

Alex Avila, Ryan Vogelsong

Ring of Fire receives:

Jay Bruce

I like this move for Dagan, definitely. Bruce is still young and has tremendous power potential, as he’s shown in bursts thus far this year. While most expected this to be his breakout season and his bottom line reveals a breakoutworthy acknowledgement (61/22/67/7/.346), a lot of that production came during a short period of time he’s been way to up and down to really be considered broken through. Next year though, watch out. He’s still just 24 and has true five-category potential if you can be patient. Dagan has shown throughout his H&T career he can be very patient. Nice move capitalizing on the value of a couple of shrewd waiver wire pickups.

For Andy, I can see the thought process, but I just think he could’ve gotten more for someone I consider a potential high-end keeper for many years to come. Really, with all the teams looking to build up for the future, it would’ve been a great time to post a message stating you were interested in dealing Bruce and needed a catcher and a starter. My guess is Dagan, who was sitting with Mauer already, probably would’ve come knocking with something a little more powerful or reliable. Don’t get me wrong, Avila and Vogelsong have been great and have excellent overall numbers, but their lack of track record and/or pedigree make it difficult to project their continued production going forward, which is when you’ll need them most. Actually, it’s the only time you’ll need them, as they’ll both be in the draft pool and (in all likelihood) will be on a different team next year. While Bruce may be on his way to a 100/40/100/15/.360 line.

So, needless to say, Dagan definitely wins here in my mind, though Andy filled a gaping catcher hole with a very capable backstop.

Trade Review - Montezuma and Billy Chapel

Billy Chapel receive:

Hunter Pence, Jair Jurrjens, Clay Buchholz, and Brett Lawrie

Montezuma’s Revenge receive:

Ian Kinsler, Francisco Cordero, and Brandon Beachy

A trade that could ultimately prove very beneficial to Troy, while helping my team fill a void. While Billy Chapel loses recently acquired keeper Kinsler, Pence is at about the same value point in most keeper rankings and is more durable, a year younger, and playing in an offense the likes of which have never been seen in Houston. Meanwhile, he acquired Jurrjens who, despite a recent hiccup, hasn’t seen his era go above 3 all year, has a whip under 1 for most of the year, and is a QS machine. He doesn’t K a lot, which keeps him from be a top-level keeper, but he’s certainly had a season worthy of keeper status. Acquired in the second to last round, he was one of my all-time greatest fantasy picks. Buchholz is less clear as a keeper, but he’s certainly played near that level since stumbling out of the blocks in April and should be fine by spring training. Lawrie, who was called up mere hours after the trade went down, could be the real catch here if he has a solid end to the season. All in all, Troy made out pretty well.

I, on the other hand, also did pretty well filling a second base slot that has been essentially useless thus far with the underwhelming BRoberts, JWeeks, EY Jr., AHill creating a statistical void outside of BRob’s first two weeks. Kinsler appears healthy, for now anyway, and is a former member of the 30/30 club who has had up and down OBP outputs. A bit of a risk while giving up one of the most reliable players in the game, but I have JUpton, CBeltran, CRasmus, and JBourgeois in the OF, so he was expendable. The trade also gets me to the roster structure I want with one bench hitter and lots of pitchers. And suddenly I have three closers for the first time this season (drafting FRodney/RFrankling/JMcGee didn’t quite work out). I actually think Beachy will outperform Jurrjens for the rest of the season as well, as he has the K upside and isn’t facing an innings limit.

So I like my lineup a bit more today and Troy got a bunch of good players for one keeper. Everyone’s happy.

Trade Review - Cowhide and Donkey

Donkey Punchers receive

Derek Holland, 12th rounder

Cowhide Joyride receive

Ted Lilly, 11th round

Smart move by Dave at this point to start selling off the pieces for minor draft upgrades. He could make some nice headway over the course of the next 10 days. Although, he might’ve been able to get more for Holland if he waited until after his next start. The thing with Holland, as someone who suffered the pains along with the great success, is he is by far the most volatile pitcher in the league. He can go from a complete game shutout with 10ks to two-thirds of an inning and seven earned runs. That was the main reason he was jettisoned from my roster, as I don’t want to have to deal with him delivering a death blow. The volatility issue may be what makes it or breaks it for Chris, with guys like McDonald, Holland, Gallardo, Cahill, and Carpenter. Even stable guys like Hudson, Karstens, Garcia, and Marcum can only reduce the risk so much. But considering the options, yeah I’d definitely rather have him than Lilly, whose been nothing short of dreadful this year despite being healthy. So definitely a good move for Chris.

Trade Review - Prestige and Cowhide

Cowhide Joyride receive:

Brendan Ryan, Glen Perkins, 7th rounder

Prestige Worldwide receive:

Billy Butler, Andrew Bailey, 10th rounder

Nice move by Lars to replace two stinkers with legitimate category threats, while only having to eat three rounds. Dave has definitely proven to be the discount shopping center compared to Casten and may have been able to get more for the twosome, but you can’t blame him really. He too will have a fun time drafting next year and considering his keepers address some of the most shallow positions (2B, SS, 3B, C), he’ll be in good shape to fill in the holes. Meanwhile, Lars has done a nice job addressing some problem spots on his roster through a couple of trades with Dave. Neither Ryan nor Perkins belong anywhere near a playoff roster, while Butler is a great UTIL guy and Bailey is a nice third closer.

Trade Review - Urban and Grumpy

Urban Achievers receive:

Desmond Jennings, Matt LaPorta, 8th rounder

Grumpy Munchkins receive:

Fracisco Liriano, Josh Tomlin, 2nd round

Ugh. It doesn’t reach the level of the Weaver deal, but this makes no sense. Desmond Jennings is a nice player, but he hasn’t reached keeper status yet. As well as he’s played, he’s had a cup of coffee before and failed miserably. Don’t get me wrong, I do like him, especially in an OBP league, but would I take a chance and draft him before the sixth round next year? Not a chance, no matter what numbers he puts up. But the real crime here is giving up the second round pick. For a team that called it a season earlier than anyone else, I would expect Dan to be in better shape at this point. No, he doesn’t have to be Dave and Casten, nor doesn’t he have to publish a menu of prices for the crumbs left on the plate, but the fact that he doesn’t have a 2nd or 3rd round pick heading into next year is ridiculous. Meanwhile Casten has five (count em – 5!!) 2nd rounders and won’t be drafting past the 8th round now. Makes me almost want to give up and trade off parts. Dave only called it a season 10 days ago and he’s in great shape. There’s still time, so hopefully Dan makes the most of it or he may just find himself rebuilding again a year from now. On Casten’s end, he continues to use this opportunity to the best of his abilities and will no doubt be disappointed come the Aug 14th deadline. The smartest thing he’s done is continue to be active on the waiver wire front and has turned several of those pickups into pick upgrades. As someone who loves to find his sleepers in the draft, it’ll be interesting to see if Casten reaches for some players in the draft because he really won’t be drafting at all when the gold nuggets are found in the latter stages of the draft. He’ll be fast asleep, or looking at his roster and rubbing one out.

Trade Review - Donkey and Urban

Urban Achievers receive:

Mariano Rivera, Russell Martin, 9th rounder

Donkey Punchers receive:

Yovani Gallardo, Mike Napoli, 12th rounder

Nice move by Chris to push Mo off as a keeper after Bell didn’t end up being traded. Gallardo has had an up and down season and remains very volatile, but the overall line (3.69era/1.32whip/124k/15qs) is still high quality. And Martin has predictably hit a massive cold streak after being fantasy’s top catcher for the first couple months. Napoli doesn’t play everyday, but sometime’s it more valuable to have an empty spot than someone that just sits their and chews away at your OBP day in and day out. And when Napoli is hot, there are few better. Chris solidified his staff without giving away much of a draft pick and avoided having to carry five closers. Meanwhile, I really don’t like the move from Urban’s point of view, namely because I don’t every condone keeping closers in a six keeper league (no, not even Mo). But that’s my strategy; at least he’s not sitting on his hands.

Trade Review - Anal and Ring of Fire

Anal Hershisers receive:

Vance Worley, 13th rounder

Ring of Fire receive:

RA Dickey, 6th rounder

Nice move by Dagan to maximize value on a shrewd waiver wire pickup, while not really taking much of a downgrade. In a league that counts wins, this is a nice gain for Anal, but Worley really isn’t that much better than Dickey, both are regression candidates, and neither are considerably better than players on the waiver wire. Worley has never been viewed as much of a prospect, so the likelihood of him keeping up the ace pace is unlikely. Dickey finished last year strong and could prove to be very valuable if he does that again. Meanwhile, the 6th brought along guys like Bourn, Beckett, Anibal, CPerez, Adam Jones, Valverde, and Kendrick. It’s a little easier to make judgment on trades where both teams are in contention because they’re less likely to work for both teams. In this case, I’ll take Dagan’s side.

Trade Review - Cowhide and Anal

Cowhide Joyride receive:

Carlos Villanueva, and 3rd and 5th round picks

Anal Hershiser receive:

Ryan Howard and two 13th round picks

Anal did a nice job here. Giving up high picks isn’t easy, but it’s a lot easier when there’s significant long-term value like that of Howard. With Verlander, Haren, Konerko, Bruce, Morse, Rollins, and Strasburg, there will be plenty of options to choose from when he has to pick six. The impressive debut is likely to include a playoff spot, but there’s still pretty big holes here that could stand to be filled. Valencia, Helton, Ruiz, and Reddick are all mediocre starters, while some of the SPs (Moseley, Colmenter, Humber, and Dickey) are playing a bit over their heads. Despite that, very nice showing for an inaugural season.

Dave continues to pile up picks and, with this trade, has his last pick slated for the 12th. If he trades that last pick, it’ll be the 10th for his last pick. His draft also includes four 5th rounders; last year’s 5th round had a ceiling of JShields/Hellickson/Kuroda/Chacin/Axford and a basement of IDesmond/RFurcal/VGuerrero—so they’re solid picks. The 3rd was a solid round as well, but nothing spectacular with Soria/Feliz/RRomero/Markakis/Buchholz/Nolaso/Dempster and the Hudson pitchers. So was the combination of picks worth one of the top power hitters in the game? If you get Shields and Dan Hudson, sure. If you get Furcal and Lilly? No. I think Dave should’ve at least gotten a first rounder for Howard, but I can’t really blame him as he’s liquidated in impressive fashion thus far.

So, while Dave has done well pulling in the picks, in a vacuum I like Andy’s side of the trade.

Trade Review - Donkey and Billy Chapel

Donkey Punchers receive:

Mariano Rivera, Jaime Garcia, Tim Hudson, Jeff Karstens, and Matt Harrison

Billy Chapel receive:

Ian Kinsler, Brandon Beachy, Jordan Zimmerman, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Arrieta

A great trade for both teams. In a rare trade for Chris, he took advantage of the pickup of Ackley and will slot him in Kinsler’s spot in the lineup, while addressing a significant weakness in his starting pitching staff. Zimm and Beachy were both going to be subject to innings limits, while Lohse’s useful life has come close to and end, and Arrieta has been sporadic at best. He acquired stability, which will be key in the playoffs. Not sure what he needed Mo for, other than that he expect Heath Bell to be traded. If he’s still a closer come Sunday, then there’s a bit of an unneeded logjam here. But he could always trade off a piece. This team isn’t top heavy, with Marcum probably the best on the staff, so it was smart to make sure those behind him are less volatile.

Troy followed up the Weaver disaster with a nice trade that brought it a quality keeper in Kinsler. Can’t remember a time Mo wasn’t on his team. He’s still got a few more parts that could be traded off for draft pick upgrades or better keepers, including Beachy, who I was surprised to see be part of the trade since he’s more valuable than Harrison due to his K potential. Zimmerman has a strict innings cap, but he could still help someone. Right now, Troy’s keepers look like Beltre, Morales, Victorinio, and Kinsler, so there’s still some work to do for Troy to get a quality group to start next season with.

Nice move for both teams. Hopefully Troy doesn’t stop there.

Trade Review - Grumpy and Keepin it Real...

The Grump Munchkins receive:

A buncha crap and 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks

Keepin it Real receive:

Geovany Soto, Mark Trumbo, Brandon McCarthy, Aaron Harang, Carlos Carrasco and three 9th round picks.

Interesting. The type of trade you’d never be able to see in the old system, prior to being able to trade picks. If nothing else, its kept more people involved where they might not have been otherwise. But you have to wonder about the impact the change has had on the competitiveness of the league. With rosters such as Brandon’s depleted to the core, it’s a significant advantage to those struggling to secure a playoff spot to play one of these teams during these final weeks. If these teams don’t have success, we may see less teams go this route next year, knowing that a killer draft only gets you so far. Or these teams could find great success and you might see teams call it a year even earlier and executing a two-year plan.

Anyhow, this was all about depth for Pierce. While there were a lot of players and picks involved (16 total), this is relatively minor trade. The pitchers are all middle of the road, Soto is having a waiver wire type year, and Trumbo is a nice UTIL/bench bat. But they’re definitely an upgrade because, while mediocre, the Carmona/Arroyo combo can do some damage on your ratios and spoil the efforts of an overall quality staff. McCarthy has been particularly reliable this year, outside of his injury.

While the players were mediocre, the picks were really minor upgrades and the difference between the 12th and 15th is not entirely discernable. It now make Casten’s draft one round shorter, allowing him to only have to stick around until the 8th round next year. And who know’s he could make it even shorter, with Boesch and Jennings in particular – though the meat is almost entirely pecked away from the munchkin carcass at this point.

Cowhide Joyride receive:

Buster Posey, Derek Holland, 5th round pick, and a 10th round pick

Montezuma’s Revenge receives:

Carlos Beltran, Josh Beckett, 15th round pick, and 16th round pick

Dave turned two of his best picks from the 2011 draft (and two of the best picks in the entire draft) into some nice value. With Posey, he has someone he can either keep and have excellent keepers at the shallowest positions (Weeks and 2B, Zimmerman at 3B, Andrus at SS, and Posey at C), or he can trade for a good draft pick or two. What might make the most sense is packaging the newly acquired RHoward with Posey and seeing what those two keepers could bring in. He also gets two nice picks and has lots of nice parts left to deal off for more picks. He may have lost the opportunity to get very high picks (first or second round) with his recent deals to sell the major guys, but he’ll dominate the middle rounds.

For myself, the market for Posey was getting pretty thin among the teams who were giving up for the year. Either they didn’t have the parts I needed or had too many keepers already (or, in Troy’s case, just didn’t like Busta). I would’ve been fine keeping him and trading in the offseason, but wanted to address the need for another good hitter and pitcher and got them both. I hate giving up draft picks, but gotta go for it when you have a shot. Grabbing the 17th and 42nd ranked players so far was definitely a good move I think and gives me a rotation that is not especially top heavy, but is deep and consistent. Beltran will essentially replace Dunn as a regular, which is obviously positive. And given my track record with early picks, I may be better off drafting in the late rounds anyway.

All in all, again, a trade that works for all involved.

Trade Review - Moose and Cowhide

Moose in Loose receive:

Mark Reynolds, 14th round pick

Cowhide Joyride receive:

6th round pick

Here rests Brian, stuck in no man’s land. Is he going for it, or not? He’s 13 games out, in second to last, but has a roster capable of making a run and he’s up 9-0 vs. Troy this week. Of course, losing McCann hurt (you really tempted the fantasy gods with that one) and he’s got plenty of pieces that could help contenders and set him up well for next year. Tough call, but I like that he’s sticking it out. You only get so many chances to be a repeat champion and he could definitely end up in 8th with five weeks left. Reynolds is a good get, though the price may have been a little steep. He’s a tough guy to place value on because he’s so streaky, but there’s only so many guys who can hit 40 homers from the 3B position. At this point, Brian needs to go big or go home, so acquiring Reynolds with the hope that he hits a hot streak is a good call. And, who knows, Reynolds is good enough to prove himself worthy of keeper eligibility again, as there are very few consistent power sources out there and third is weak.

For Dave, he gets some good value for one of his former keepers and he is gradually stocking up picks for next season. The 6th round was a mixed bag with flops like AHill, PHughes and BMatusz and some great finds with Bourn, Beckett, Anibal, AJones and Valverde – a good round to target for those trading off pieces. I still think Dave could’ve made some noise if he stuck it out, but I can’t argue with the way he’s worked since “packing it in.”

Overall, I commend Brian for sticking with and I think Dave is taking the correct route now that he is in liquidation mode.

Trade Review - Billy Chapel and One Nut

Billy Chapel receive:

Kendrys Morales, Adrian Beltre, Mark Buehrle, and a 5th round pick

One Nut receive:

Jered Weaver, Alex Gordon, and a 1st round pick

Troy ultimately did not get the type of return many had expected for one of the top pitchers in the league, causing a mild uproar throughout the league. Ok, maybe a little more than mild. The issue at hand is the keeper worthiness of Morales and Beltre. If you look on the surface, based on this year’s stats, you could make a case for Beltre and Morales for Weaver, as Beltre is hitting in the middle of one of the top lineups in the league and hitting well, while Morales had a 86/34/108/.355 line in 2009 and just turned 28 years old. The thing keeping Beltre from being a high quality keeper is he only contributes in three categories (albeit doing so quite well over the last year and a half) as his .316 obp is atrocious and he simply does not run. And he’s 32 Dominican years old, meaning he’s not in his prime and thus, not a long-term keeper. For 2012, yes, but I would be surprised if this kind of production continues and makes him a keeper in 2013. Morales, meanwhile, will have not hit a baseball in a major league game in 23 months come next April, assuming that he’s fully recovered. He has the pedigree of a masher who the Angels signed in his teens hoping for years like 2009, but the bottom line is he’s just had one good year. For a guy like Weaver, Troy should’ve gotten more. One could actually make the case that Alex Gordon was a more valuable keeper than Morales with a solid 57/12/54/9/.369 line and a pedigree that far exceeds anyone involved in the trade. No sense continuing to stone Troy for this, but the fact that a first round pick needed to be added for Jason is simply ludicrous.

For Jason, well, it was a brilliant bit of negotiating in which he rid himself of a player eating a bench spot and didn’t lose very much at 3B with Gordon. Weaver has a 1.79 era and 0.95 whip, which is dazzling, and makes the uproar following the Justin Upton (for CHart and Weaver) deal over the winter seem a little silly by comparison. Weaver is a flat out stud and will provide some consistency to hedge against the volatile Morrow, Lewis, Lowe, and Wandys of the roster. He’s a surefire keeper for many years to come. Oh and Jason gets a first rounder next year. He’ll be having wet dreams about this for months.

The league has had some doozies over the years, but this might be the most lopsided of them all.

Trade Review - Cowhide and Prestige

Cowhide Joyride receive:

Ryan Howard, Steve Chishek, Frank Francisco, Carl Pavano, and a 9th and 13th round pick

Prestige Worldwide receive:

Madison Bumgarner, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Papelbon, and Drew Storen

Following his packing it in email, Dave got pretty good value for four players that will definitely help out Lars. Howard is obviously a great player and is a quality sixth keeper to go with Fielder, Weeks, Zimmerman, Andrus, and Lincecum, though it may behoove Dave to upgrade another position since he already has a hulking homer-hitting firstbasemen. The picks are middle of the draft, which is all right, nothing spectacular, but all right for what he was giving up, which was no one incredibly special.

While not incredibly special, they definitely address a problem area for Lars, which was pitching and only thins a position he already has AGon at. His offense is loaded, but bullpen has definitely been a problem and he got two mainstays who will keep him competitive in the saves category. Outside of Chacin and Price, Lars’ starters were a whole lot of mediocrity. Bumgarner is having a great season and is definitely an asset, while Nolasco can be brilliant or a complete mess. Unfortunately for Lars, he has a number of volatile pitchers who will occasionally make a mess of his ratios. But the trade was a good one overall and I highly doubt the loss of Howard will hurt this team going forward this season.

Overall, the trade was pretty even and addressed areas of concern for both owners.

Grumpy Munchkins receive:

8th and 9th round picks

Anal Hershiser receives:

Josh Collmenter, 10th and 12th picks

A pretty ho-hum trade, so I won’t ramble, but one that makes sense. For Anal, he gets a guy who has performed well but relies on deception and control, is playing well above his head, and is due for some regression here. That said, he really didn’t give up much, so no real loss. For Casten, he continues to work the system in a way many other “punters” should. He now will be finished drafting in the 9th round (that’s nine rounds before the rest of us are done, in case you’re wondering), which should please him greatly since he’s always the one whining about how late the drafts go. In case you’re curious, the 9th round yielded guys like IKennedy, CBeltran, IDavis, JHanrahan, and TStauffer. If that is the worst player on the Munchkins next year, Brandon’s gonna be tough to beat… on paper. The ugly side of the 9th are guys like JUribe, JKubel, Arroyo, FFrancisco, TSnider, and the immortal EEncarnacion. And my guess is Casten isn’t done yet with guys like Trumbo, Boesch, Jennings, McCarthy, Lyles, Harang, and Luebke all useful pieces for someone making a run at it. You can argue he’s stupid for giving up on a season while he’s in the playoff race, but you can’t say he’s going about it halfass.

Trade Review - Montezuma and Colon

Colon No Like Salad receives:

Grady Sizemore

Montezuma’s Revenge receives:

Rajai Davis

After a rather stunning silence in the trade department over the last week and a half, Russ and I made this exchange in a pretty low key move compared to most recently. For Russ, Sizemore represents name recognition and high value when healthy. He had spurts of dominance mixed within three trips to the DL for various issues not related to the surgically repaired knee. If he comes back and has an excellent last month, there’s some keeper potential to be had here. If not, he didn’t give up very much to get him. Smart, low risk move.

The move is more significant for my team, which seems to have accumulated more injuries again. The Revenge have been pretty woeful in the speed department with the second lowest total in the league with 60 total. The add of Davis immediately gives my team a legitimate threat in that category. He’s played better as of late, but is still sporting a .267 obp. A good bench player to have.

In summary, Russ got a potential piece to move and I got a one dimensional bench player who should provide a boost.

Trade Review - Colon and Angry Pirates

The Angry Pirates receive:

Mike Stanton, Gio Gonzalez, Max Sherzer, Phil Hughes, 8th rounder

Colon No Like Salad receive:

Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Rajai Davis, David Freese, 6th rounder

Kyle took a considerable risk here in trading two solid keepers for one good one (not sold on Gio yet). Hamels has really been undervalued in recent years for no real reason other than a mediocre 2009 season. He’s young and a high K, low rate guy, pitching in the NL east and has been more valuable in 2011 than Felix, who is still the prize of this trade from a keeper perspective. Not to mention that earlier this season, Felix cost Kyle Carlos Santana, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and two 3rd rounders (he received a 6th and a 12th). Make no mistake about it, Stanton is a young, stud home run hitter in a time when those are hard to come by, but these are two of the top five keeper pitchers in the league. He’s also barely old enough to drink, which means volatility is likely and his peak is still five years away (though, those peak years could be fun). All that said, if you looked at this trade at the beginning of the season, you could make the argument it favored Kyle because Scherzer and Hughes were both considered quality second-tier SPs. If those two turn it around and the Pirates make a serious run, you can hardly blame Kyle. But it might hurt more going into next season than it probably could’ve because I think he could’ve gotten more.

For Colon, I like the move. For some reason, this team isn’t performing to the level of the competition. There are still some great offensive players without Stanton, who could provide a push to the playoffs. Meanwhile his staff surpasses Peirce’s for best in the league (at least, on paper) with Halladay, Felix, Kershaw, and Hamels leading the way. It’s a move that allows him to look for next season without giving up on this season, which is brilliant for the current structure and standing of this team. If it does fall apart, there’s an excellent opportunity to upgrade keepers, which also includes CarGo, Cano, and JHamilton. Oh and lets not forget Wainright has been sitting in the DL spot the entire season. It would not shock me if Roy, Felix, Clayton, Cole, and Adam W were the top five fantasy pitchers in the league in 2012, so whether its players or trades there’s a lot to play with here. And I think it would’ve taken some convincing to get someone to take Gio in a trade with full confidence they were receiving a keeper, for no other reason than lack of name recognition.

All in all, it’s a risk that could pay off big for Kyle and a smart, calculated decision by Russ that puts him in great shape going forward.

Trade Review - Grumpy and Anal

The Grumpy Munchkins receive:

2nd round pick

Anal Hersheiser receives:

Michael Morse, a 11th round pick

Pretty cut and dry here. First, Morse – He’s good. Is he a keeper? He’s had 290 abs as of Wednesday. Let’s say a full a season is double that – 84r/34hr/104rbi/4stl/.364obp – there’s certainly been worse keepers. This year’s second round brought forth guys like Gio, Granderson, Marcum, Lind, Sandoval, Andrus – some high quality shit, but Morse certainly fits that value profile, especially with OF eligibility. It’s a tough pick to give up, but if he proves to be a keeper than it’s more than worthwhile for Anal. Certainly, if he assists in a playoff run, it’s worth it. He’s a nice upgrade to the Ludwick/SSmith types that often filled the UTIL/OF slot. The question is whether Morse keeps this up, as he has never been a full time player before and had a pretty crappy first month or so. Don’t forget, this guy was on the waiver wire not that long ago.

For Casten, let look at his pick stockpile – eight picks in the first two rounds, draft done by the 12th (though, I have no doubt he’ll trade off that 12th rounder, in which case he’ll be done by the 10th). For theoretical purposes, let’s take a look at how the corresponding picks in the first three rounds for the 2011 draft: Aramis Ramirez, Brian Wilson, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Pablo Sandoval, Joakim Soria, Nick Markakis, and Geovany Soto. To go along with Reyes, Heyward, Pujols, MCabrera, and McCutchen. And, oh, by the way, Casten is still in the playoff hunt and is 27-10-3 in the past four weeks. He’s worked the system nicely so far, though you got to expect some sort of decline in the rankings from his pitching staff in the next few weeks. You have to wonder what sort of run this team would’ve had in it had Casten not started selling off the parts for picks. It’s a tough call.

Anyhow, value wise, this is a pretty fair trade, though I could certainly see Casten’s return proving to be more valuable in the long run.

Trade Review - Moose and Urban

Moose is Loose receive:

BJ Upton, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Alfonso Soriano, 3rd round pick

Urban Achievers receive:

Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Alex Presley, Eric Thames, 1st round pick

This is one of those trades that should make everyone think twice about lamenting the “dump trades” that occur before the trade deadline. Really, they’re a great thing. They create opportunities for the downtrodden to look forward to next year, while allowing the competitors a chance to enhance their team in exchange for theoretical long-term losses. Without them, we’d see much less trades. And nothing is more exciting and potentially more impactful than a good trade. It hurts for teams that think they could’ve offered better, but hopefully inspires them to be proactive in the future. Allowing the exchange of draft picks has expanded every team’s ability to upgrade their team. While I was initially against it, I’m warming up to it as the season goes on. Sure, some trades have resulted in some imbalanced exchanges of 2012 picks, but it has further expanded the freedom each owner has to manage their team. On a side note, not requiring people to start two RP was also a good move and has also provided the opportunity for owners to be strategic—perhaps to their own detriment, but that’s the beauty of it all. If you wanted to, trading your first five picks next year could address many of the holes on your team, but do you sacrifice next year’s roster for the chance at glory next year? Are you that confident in your assessment of players that you think your 2012 team would be just fine regardless? All questions you have to consider and could send you in a wide range of directions and, ultimately, it separates the men from the boys.

I digress. For Moose, I applaud the reigning champ for his sticktoitiveness and willingness to go for it this year despite the serious challenges his roster has faced. No one has had more bad luck with top players. Choo is much better than he has performed and Morneau is a perennial top fantasy 1B. While Choo may return to form this year, he’s injured and Brian isn’t in a position to sit back and wait for him. Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear Morneau won’t be the masher of old this year. You team that with Greinke’s stupid basketball injury and subsequent underperformance and Uggla’s issues with his new surroundings, it’s been a shit show from the beginning. Now, his bullpen, which was once a strength, lost K-Rod to trade and Putz to injury. Ouch. Safe to say a repeat will be tough, but if he can make it to the playoffs, he still has a chance. Starting guys like Presley and Thames, you have no chance. What I like about the trade from Brian’s end is that he took a hit on the keeper end, but BJ Upton is more than solid as a keeper. And, sure, it hurts to lose a first rounder, but he’s only downgrading a couple rounds. And one could argue, teams found more success in the 3rd round this year than the 1st. Meanwhile, Pagan has the potential for a big second half and Frenchy and Soriano are significant upgrades to the Presley/Pierre/Thames/Melky/Hunter combo. Not to mention, Brian acquired 55 steals—a category that has been a problem for him this year. More challenges await, but he addressed his biggest area of need.

On Urban’s end, Morneau is expected to recover and Choo almost certainly will return to some semblance of the form that made him one of the top all around contributors in the league last year. Upton is a tough loss, but he’s also tough to rely on and can be very streaky. BJ probably has the most high end potential, but I think it is smart for Dan to build up a solid core in preparation for next year. There’s still work to be done, but CC, CYoung, Morneau and Choo are a nice start and the upgrade to a first rounder was a good move, though I think it probably could’ve been a more substantial upgrade. I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more action on this front from Urban, especially considering Casten offered me a handjob for my 11th rounder. But Dan still got pieces to sell off with KJohnson, Jeter, Hafner, Napoli, CLee, Liriano, Vargas, Gallardo, FGarcia, and Tomlin all falling in the above-waiver-wire-material-and-useful-but-not-quite-keeper category.

All in all, again, nice work guys. Trade works for all parties.

Trade Review - Grumpy and Keepin it Real

Grumpy Munchkins receive:

Desmond Jennings, 3rd round pick, 10th round pick

Keepin it Real receive:

Jayson Werth, 13th round pick, 15th round pick

There’s a few different things going on in this trade, but the primary focus should really be the acquisition of a third rounder next year for Werth. Jennings may have some value come playoff time, but I don’t believe he’s the type of prospect that deserved being rostered for this long, nor should any competitive team continue to keep him as a bench player. The 10th and 13th rounds are not very different and the 15th is basically the beginning of the “take a shot” territory in the draft (in fact, there is only one player from the 15th round 2011 draft who is on the same team they were drafted by-- Billy Chapel’s Ryan Madson). For Peirce, it’s not a bad move to take a shot on a guy like Werth, who has woefully underperformed in his new surroundings. Keepin it Real has plummeted in the standings after being in first not long ago, thanks to four straight losses to tough opponents (Donkey, Montezuma, Prestige, Ring), which has more or less corresponded with his trade of MCabrera. This team still has the talent to take it all this year, but Pierce is in need of offense and Werth has shown an ability to provide that in the past and the trade didn’t impact the 2011 team. I still think he could stand to dilute his pitching staff in exchange for an offensive boost (a Pineda trade to a non-contender would make a lot of sense), but I applaud him for not giving up. Unfortunately, one of Werth’s assets is his base-stealing ability and that’s really not a need for Pierce, meanwhile there are four guys on the waiver wire who have more homers than Werth—three of whom have a better OBP than Werth’s abysmal .319 and three have more RBIs than Werth’s paultry output of 31. Tough to feel sorry for Pierce though, as Jennings could’ve been moved for a litany of quality offensive performers on the waiver wire throughout the year. The lack of timely moves with guys like Jennings, Garland, and Lyon may ultimately cause this team’s demise.

For Brandon, I think he recovered nicely from the last trade, though I should note (and agree with Dagan), this does not entirely make up for the losses that I believe were sustained. The 3rd round of 2011 was filled with quality performers – Feliz, Soria, Buchholz, Napoli, Romero, Nolasco, Markakis, Dempster, Morrow, and Timmy and Danny Hudson – with a few minor duds in Soto and Pagan (no, Jason, he was not a keeper). The round provided many teams with that second tier of starting pitchers that is of the utmost importance in this league. Casten is loaded with top picks and he will no doubt be yanking his crank after the draft in 2012 because the team will look, in his mind anyway, better than anyone else’s. There’s something to be said for that. Meanwhile, there were concerns with Werth going into the season, namely because he never performed until he was in that small park in Philly with a lineup that ensured he was going to see pitches to hit. Washington is a big park and Werth has never had the power that Dunn/Morse/RZimmerman types have displayed during their time in the Capital; meanwhile, that lineup is pretty awful. I really don’t think Werth turns it around, certainly not to the point where he is worth drafting in the 3rd round next year. And it doesn’t really hurt the Munchkins, as Casten has other, more useful outfielders on his roster. I still don’t know if he’s going for it or building for next year, but all in all, it was a good move.

In summary, the trade makes sense for both teams, which is the best kind of trade. Pierce took a shot at someone who has performed well in the past with the hope of an offensive turnaround and Casten continues to stockpile early draft picks.

Trade Review - Grumpy Munchkins and One Nut

Grumpy Munchkins receive:

Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick

One Nut receives:

Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick

As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.

For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.

Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.

Trade Review - Cowhide Joyride and Colon No Like Salad

Cowhide Joyride receives:

Prince Fielder, 5th round pick

Colon No Like Salad receives:

Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick

A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.

For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.

Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.

Trade Review - Urban Achievers and Montezuma's Revenge

Urban Achievers receive:

SS Derek Jeter, 3B Pedro Alvarez

Montezuma’s Revenge receive:

3B/SS Jhonny Peralta, SP Ervin Santana

This is one of those trades that everyone should remember when you’re looking at your team right after the draft, before the season starts and think “this team is going to rock! I’m not sure I’ll need to make any transactions!” For me, I started the season loving my offense (particularly having young studs Alvarez and Ian Stewart at the hot corner!!) and hating the depth of pitching. Turns out it’s the offense that has struggled, while the depth of pitching has kept me afloat despite injuries. I can’t remember the last time my team only occupied two DL spots, and it kept adding on Wednesday when EBedard went on the DL (thankfully, not arm-related). Trading two DL players will help me manage my roster more easily going forward, at least until the next injury occurs. Peralta has been one of those sneaky good players this year (35 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, .360 OBP – ranked 60 overall by Yahoo!) who provides depth at two thin positions, and Santana has been a fine contributor (92 Ks with a reasonable 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and 9 QS) and addresses the need for a strikeout pitcher. Jeter was made expendable by my new binky, JJ Hardy, and, even if he comes back before the All Star break, it was going to take some time for Pedro to work himself back into the circle of trust. Overall, it weakens my team in the speed category, which I am already weak in, but hopefully Jemile Weeks will continue to tear up the basepaths. I also like that I managed to fix some problems without trading Posey, my biggest chip for teams that drop out.

For Urban, this trade makes a lot of sense. Alvarez was by far the biggest flop in the draft, but he still has a half season to prove his worth and could very well live up to his pedigree by the end of the year. His immense power potential could make me look foolish. Certainly, a decent second half would make him keeper-worthy on this expansion team, especially considering the lack of depth at 3B. Jeter, meanwhile, is probably no longer keeper-worthy, but should at least yield Dan a decent pick from one of the teams starting fringe shortstops or with questionable UTIL players.

On the surface, Jeter and former top MLB draft pick Alvarez are much bigger names, but their seasons have not come close to the size of their perceived talent. I was obviously convinced, having grabbed him with the fourth overall pick (I would’ve drafted him with the first). Look no further than their O-Rank before the season (Alvarez 83rd and Jeter 40th) to see which side has the most potential. But given the injuries to the Revenge, this makes a lot of sense from both a depth and roster management perspective. All in all, not a truly impactful trade, but one that made sense for both teams.

Trade Review - Angry Pirates & Colon No Like Salad

The Angry Pirates receive:

1B Freddie Freeman, 11th rounder, 12th rounder

Colon No Like Salad receive:

1B Brett Wallace, 5th rounder, 8th rounder

This trade is interesting in that it is sooo not interesting. Freeman is the better of the young first basemen and the younger one (Wallace is 25 in August, Freeman is 22 in September). Freeman has 30 more at bats and 11 more rbi (21 vs. 32) and 5 more homers, while both have scored 32 runs and have basically no speed. Wallace’s OBP of .380 was really the only contribution of any value to this point, despite hitting fifth in a surprisingly decent offense. He really has no business being a starting first baseman in High & Tight and is borderline waiver material. Freeman, meanwhile, struggled early on but is starting to show some power. He has good long-term potential, but his performance so far leaves something to be desired from an offensively oriented position.

Draft picks are difficult to fully grasp in terms of value because your essentially just delaying the consequences for a short-term gain. Some highlights from the 2011 fifth round – Axford, Kuroda, Hellickson, Papelbon, Garza, Torii Hunter, FCordero JZimmerman, Chacin, and James Shields. Worst pick of this round was Furcal, who went to Urban with the top pick, and the recently dropped Vlad and Ian Desmond, as well as the ever-frustrating Brett Myers. The 8th round had some great steals in Gaby Sanchez and Michael Pineda, along with massive busts (RFranklin, ALaRoche, JSantana, Broxton, Fowler). Meanwhile it was a lot of hit and miss in the 11th and 12th with Bedard, Moreland, Kimbrel, Tabata, and LMorrison proving exceptional and Asdrubal obviously a very good for Lars. But the picks were mostly unsuccessful, with Colvin, Pelfrey, IStewart, BCecil, DLee, Veneble, Ruiz, RSoriano, Lidge among them. Needless to say, the later picks in the deal are crapshoot territory, while the fifth rounder (technically, the 11th) next year may ultimately prove to be the best player in this deal.

In terms of players for this season, Kyle definitely got the better one and it makes his team immediately better. But not THAT much better to make it was worth the picks, which makes it a win for Russ in my mind. It would be different if I considered Freeman keeper worthy, but with his production to this point and the depth of hearty statistics available at first, he’s not there yet.

Midseason Review

1. Prestige Worldwide (61-43-6)

The Commish has overcome the injury to Longo in large part because of the emergence of Assdribble Cabrera, who has been the runaway fantasy MVP (Berkman is in the conversation, but SS is very weak). A-Gon and Granderson have been among the top players the entire season and the imposing offense is solid top to bottom. Pitching is questionable due to a severe lack of consistency. Guys like Hudson, Britton, Lackey, Pavano, and JSanchez make it difficult to know whether you’ll have a 2.00 era or over 4.00. Chacin and Price are high quality. The bullpen leaves much to be desired with Capps and Francisco not necessarily on the firmest ground and the Uehera/Broxton/Kuo combo thoroughly underwhelming. Still, if the pitching can win him two or three categories per week, he’ll win his matchup more often than not with that offense (8-3 in hr, 8-3 in r, 9-2 in rbi).

Going forward: An improvement to the pitching staff would be advisable. If he doesn’t want to take from his offense, dealing Price could net at least two solid top-tier (but not quite keeper) options. There’s no room here to keep a pitcher anyway.

Best move: Other than drafting Asdrubal, trading for Ethier for Stubbs during Andre’s hitting streak was a great move and also brought him a high pick.

Worst move: Not much to criticize here, but with a staff as inconsistent as it is there are too many roster spots devoted to middle relief/speculative closers.

2. Donkey Punchers (62-45-3)

Like Pierce, Chris has made very few roster moves (eight to be exact), yet sits near the top of the standings. Both owners should be applauded for their drafting ability this year. However, unlike Pierce, Chris has loads of power. In fact, even if he just had Berkman, Bautista, Cruz, and Teix (a combined 74- as of a week ago), he’d have more total home runs than SEVEN teams. He also ranks first in runs and is high in OBP and RBIs. His bullpen is killer with Bell, Marmol, Farnsworth, and Nunez, whose 50 saves are only two behind the leader. The other pitching categories are middle of the road, but respectable and would be better if Lilly and Carpenter returned to form. But the staff is solid. Overall, the team is probably the most balanced in the league and stands to make noise come playoff time.

Going forward: Pierce and Chris need to talk. They obviously like their own teams, but Chris has excess power and saves and needs a frontline SP. Pierce has SPs coming out his ass and no power or saves. Lets get these kids together.

Best move: Drafting Berkman in the 16th round. Whoa. Oh and he butt-raped Kyle in the Teix trade too.

Worst move: While the CC trade looked good on the surface, Cahill has stunk and CC is very consistent, while Marmol has been good, but an adventure at times. Of course, he added a first rounder in that trade too, so it wasn’t that bad.

3. Keepin it Real (58-43-9)

What a transformation for Pierce’s squad, who posted the third best record in the first half using only seven transactions. Whether you consider apathy or confidence in his drafted roster, you can’t argue the results, which are a refreshing change for the habitual bottom-dweller. There’s speed all over this team with Tabata, Pedroia, Ichiro, and Ells all totaling over a dozen SBs, which easily leads the league. His run total is top 5 and OBP is middling, but HR and RBI totals are among the worst in the league, making you wonder if this is a smoke and mirror type team that will eventually fade away. Meanwhile, he has no closer, and thus no saves, but his starters are really keeping this club afloat with Lester, Hanson, Pineda, Cain, Lee, Anibal, and Garza formulating the best staff in High & Tight. He’s only 4-6-1 in the K category and 5-4-2 in QS, but that will go up and the rates (9-2-0 for both) should be consistent. It will be Pierce’s offense that makes or breaks the team. Wright and Panda’s return would help.

Going forward: May want to think about dealing some of that speed and pitching to sure up other areas like power and saves.

Best move: Drafting in rounds 11-14 (Garza, Anibal, CJ Wilson, Pineda)

Worst move: Not making moves. DJennings isn’t good enough to have warranted a roster spot this long and Brandon Lyon has occupied the DL spot far too long.

4. Montezuma’s Revenge (54-44-12)

No one is more surprised than I am to see my team ranked this high, as injuries have plagued the team for most of the year (seven DLed players at one point). But I’ve managed to utilize my 32 transactions in a way that has kept me afloat. The offense has been anemic with a record below .500 in every offensive category, but still has some valuable parts with Pence and Upton among the top 50 players. I do give myself credit for overcoming the injury to the one true ace, JJ, and filling the staff with solid, consistent contributors who have allowed me to be one of two teams to never lose in a single category with a 9-0-2 record in QS (Angry Pirates has a clean plate with saves, 10-0-1). The key has been hedging inconsistent K guys (like Volquez and Holland) with consistent rate pitchers (IKennedy, Bedard, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buchholz, McCarthy, and Stauffer). Having one closer (following the RFranklin, FRodney, JMcGee disasters) has hurt overall, but has allowed me to pick up wins when matched up against closerless teams. With 12 ties, this team could easily be higher in the standings or much lower.

Going forward: The offense, namely Dunn, Alvarez, Sizemore, Hosmer, Rasmus, and Santana, needs to produce to give me a chance to win. Trading Posey once a team drops out of the race could help here.

Best move: Grabbing Hosmer, who looks like a long-term keeper, and drafting Jurrjens in the 24th and Bedard in the 17th.

Worst move: It’s looking more and more like I’ll regret filling my hole at catcher with Santana, who is good but Lind has been amazing. Fucking Scott Cousins. Oh and the Ian Stewart/Pedro Alvarez strategy to 3B hasn’t quite worked out as planned. And I probably should’ve kept Haren over Jeter. Oh and Dunn is a piece of crap. But can’t whine too much with a record like that.

5. Angry Pirates (54-48-8)

The record is pretty surprising given that Kyle has been part of four trades and has seemingly been on the losing side of all of them. Sure he rid himself of Morales and got Teix to begin the season, but he also lost Soria, Latos, and his second pick next year and ultimately traded Teix (Lohse, Arrieta, and fourth rounder) and really only got Holliday and Moreland to show for it. The aforementioned Stubbs-Ethier trade didn’t work out (and he lost his first rounder). Meanwhile, he gave up CSantana, Phillips, Upton, DBrown and two third rounders for Felix Hernandez (Brantley has been OK, got a sixth rounder back). He’s worked around that with a lights out bullpen and strong pitching from Hamels, Felix, and Baker. But this team needs some work to keep up this playoff-bound pace. Moreland, Beckham, AJackson, DYoung, and Brantley are all starting lineup fixtures that are best left for a bench (Moreland more of a UTIL type). Meanwhile, the back end of the rotation has a lot of question marks with Chatwood, Wake, EJax, Wade Davis, and Matusz.

Going forward: To improve depth, a trade of Holliday or Hamels could do wonders and solidify some of the question marks. And with a number of teams looking for bullpen help, trading one of the closers could yield some quality players and still allow Kyle to compete in the category.

Best move: Neil Walker seemed like a reach in the fourth round this year, but has proven to be very valuable, while late draft picks Hanrahan and Walden are completely legit.

Worst move: Other than the trades? Delmon Young in the second round is painful. But the real issue will be next season when he doesn’t have a pick until the fifth round.

6. One Nut Wonders (55-50-5)

Always an adventure, Jason is never afraid to trade anyone and has been part of seven trades so far (with a trade proposal-to-completion ratio no doubt below 1%) with mixed results. Certainly the Morales trades was tough to swallow, but made easier with finding Mike Morse on the waiver wire. The Reyes – Hanley trade may be one he regrets, especially with the two high picks he had to give up, but did a good job getting Lind for one of his two top tier catchers. His draft has produced some extreme highs (Quentin, Montero) and extreme lows (EdwinEnc, BMyers) and after all the roster turnover, he’s left with an offense that is superb (though, perhaps better on paper) and a pitching staff with a lot of holes, with Wandy about the only guy who could be considered solid to this point (though Latos and Morrow certainly have the ability).

Going forward: Another trade or two (or twelve) are no doubt in Jason’s future, so this roster could look very different in a few weeks. But pitching is badly needed to balance this team. Or else he’s going to have a lot of weeks like the last one, where he’s left with his hand on his crank, dreaming of Braun, Morse, and Lind and his dominant offensive week, while his team goes 4-6.

Best move: Morse and Lind pick ups, closer drafting.

Worst move: Drafting Edwin “I’m about to blow your mind” Encarnacion.

7. Anal Hershiser (53-50-7)

Proof that an expansion team could join the league and put together a quality group of keepers (Verlander, Bruce, Cain, Haren, Konerko, Rasmus) without a confusing expansion draft. That was followed with a solid, albeit unspectacular, draft and some good moves on the waiver wire (Phil Humber) and one bad one (dropping Stauffer), and one bad trade (Tomlin and McClellan for Cain). All in all, a pretty good start that leave Anal in the position to get one of the eight playoff spots. The team is balanced enough to maintain the pace, but there are some contributors playing over their heads at the moment that will have to keep it up – Dickey, Livan, Marquis, Moseley, Humber, Turner, and Helton to name a few. But if Swisher, Cuddyer, and Cueto live up to their potential in the second half, this team could have a shot.

Going forward: The infield could use help with neither JTurner nor Cuddyer everyday starter-worthy. Verlander could command a lot of good players that could boost this area.

Best move: Other than solid keeper picking, Humber has been one of the best stories of the first half.

Worst move: Boy, I bet you wish you didn’t drop Bud Norris. And, again, Cain was worth more than that.

8. Ring of Fire (51-52-7)

Unfamiliar territory for the three-time former champion, who has faced some difficult match ups as of late and probably is better than where he sit in the standings (he’s top three in all total offensive categories except SB). His selections off the waiver wire have been spot on, with such standouts as Avila (who needs Mauer?), Espinosa, Norris, Salas, Melancon, and Vogelsong. And while Kemp has rebounded nicely and Ortiz decided to play the first couple months, Youk’s production isn’t quite where it has been in the past and Votto doesn’t have the power numbers you’d expect. Dagan’s patience with CPena has paid off. Lowrie served his purpose for a few weeks but came back to Earth and injuries to Mauer and Ike have hurt, while no one has been more frustrating to own than Ubaldo. But the staff is solid with Hellboy and Romero proving to be good picks and his bullpen overcame the lost of Thornton with Salas a key speculative add. It will be interesting to see if the pitchers can maintain this performance and match the quality of the offense, which has not yet been full force. Could make a serious second half run.

Going forward: Shortstop is a problem, with Dee Gordon not the answer and Lowrie only mediocre/injured. May be able to get something for Avila. Maybe package with Ubaldo to grab a top tier SP that is performing like one. Trades are fun Dagan, try one.

Best move: Vogelsong pickup. Crazy numbers. Sustainable? That’s another question.

Worst move: Drafting Brett Cecil again was odd, the Thornton pick certainly hurt.

9. Moose is Loose (50-52-8)

Actually, Brian is doing pretty good considering some of the challenges, which began with Greinke attempt at an NBA career. The underperformance of keepers Morneau, Uggla, and Choo are enough to kill any team, but the general suckiness of high picks Dempster (recently bounced back), Danks, and Pierre have also proven challenging. While other picks like Kubel, Braden, DLee, Richard, TWood, Thome, and Westbrook have all been more or less worthless. That said, Smoak has proven to be a great pick and his bullpen picking (KRod, Putz, Fuentes, and League) was superb. Melky has helped as well, but all in all the waiver wire has not helped. Moose is pretty much .500 across all categories with the exception of saves and steals, which cancel eachother out. The success of the team will hinge on getting contributions from those who have disappointed in the first half. If they do, Brian’s .500 play to this point will prove to be extremely valuable and most assuredly place last year’s champ back in playoff contention.

Going forward: Hold tight and hope for a turnaround or trade off assets while they’re still some speculative value? The answer probably lies somewhere in between.

Best move: Refusing offers for Tulo, drafting League in the 22nd.

Worst move: When needed most, the waiver wire pickups just have not been helpful.

10. Cowhide Joyride (49-54-7)

Dave had an up and down draft with very bright spots like Beckett, Andrus, Storen, Beltran, and LoMo and some big misses like Butler, Manny, Daisuke, Barton and Drew. Injuries to Hamilton and Zimmerman, along Reynolds slow start, sent him into a bit of a early season tailspin. Things have turned around recently and his team is healthy. There’s certainly enough talent here, but I wonder weather his pitching strategy will work with only seven starters and five relievers – two of whom are setup men, albeit good ones. He’s played the waiver wire relatively well, sending off players that aren’t showing much reboundability and grabbing guys like Joyce, RRoberts, and Wells. The roster is pretty well set up to make a serious run if healthy.

Going forward: A quality starting pitcher would probably help. With some of the shortstops currently starting in this league, I would think Dave could get a nice mid-level player for Andrus or Alexei.

Best move: Drafting Beckett and picking up Joyce just as he was exploding. Not trading Hamilton for pennies on the dollar was probably a good move, though he does have a hole to climb out of.

Worst move: Billy Butler is rosterable, but shouldn’t be the starting 1B on any respectable team. The Manny pick definitely hurt.

11. Billy Chapel (47-54-9)

Somehow, some way, this team is three games out of a playoff spot. But I expect that to change. If you look down the roster on the offensive side, you see a lot of good players but no great ones. One guy with double digit HR (Willingham, 10, on DL) and one double digit SB (Victorino, 12) and some solid yet unspectacular OBPs. On the pitching side, there’s Weaver, great closers, and a lot of mediocrity with the loss of BAnderson. Garcia and Hudson have been decent and the recent pickup of Karstens may prove valuable, but all signs point to a fall here. Picking AGordon and RMadson late in the draft were great moves, but its obvious Troy is missing some of the stars he traded off before the season started, namely Felix and JUpton. Three of the four guys he got in return have been awful (Hart, Rios, BAndrson – Weaver good). That said, unlike previous season where depth was an issue, the roster is pretty well full of rosterable players and its clear Troy has a renewed focus and has done well in the waiverwire with Polanco, Damon, Willingham, MHarrison, Lucroy and Karstens (definitely should’ve held on to Boesch though).

Going forward: There are two routes he could take – with eight playoff spots, he can definitely make a run. Trading a closer and/or Weaver could add some major talent and help propel him to success, but dilute his keeper options. The other route is trading off the quality non-keepers here for picks next year and making sure the six guys he keeps are worthwhile. He could stand pat and make the playoffs, but I don’t see a serious playoff run in the future.

Best move: Drafting Gordon, who looks to be playing at a keeper-worthy level.

Worst move: Felix should’ve got him much more than Rios and the injured Anderson.

12. THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS (48-57-5)

Casten always makes for a fascinating case study in fantasy strategy. At the end of 2009, he had manipulated his roster brilliantly to have a keeper lineup that included Hanley, Pujols, Braun, ARod, and Bruce to start 2010, which seemed to have him set up well for future dominance providing he drafted well. Yet, here we are, again, witnessing a rebuilding effort. No matter what he says, this team doesn’t have the chops to make it this season. The Reyes trade was smart and got him a couple high picks, while he has Cabrera and Pujols to go with McCutch, Heyward, and JJohnson. Nice keepers, a lot of high picks for next year, but this year is a bust with a roster littered with guys you’d never have thought of drafting at the beginning of the year. The good ones are unlikely to continue to perform. It will be interesting to see how well he can position the team for next year’s draft going forward, with a trade of Shield likely to yield something positive. Give him credit for starting the no closer strategy several teams have employed successfully this year. Casten was doing this with success as well, but there simply isn’t enough left to keep those rates at acceptable levels.

Going forward: I would say the best move for Brandon would be to devote himself fully to the rebuilding process and try to pick up parts along the way that can be traded eventually. Next year, his team could be scary good.

Best move: Trading McLellan and Tomlin for Cain – easily – which ultimately brought him Cabrera.

Worst move: Surely, despite his happiness during the draft, he wishes he didn’t draft ARam with his first pick.

13. Colon No Like Salad (45-55-10)

This is perplexing. This team is littered with studs, perhaps moreso than any other team. Fielder, Stanton, Cargo, Cano, Kershaw, Halladay mixed with surprises like Ogando, Colon, Gio, and Gaby. Scherzer, Pagan and Hughes were regrettable early picks, and Maybin, Branyan, Snider, Freeman, Infante, and Happ weren’t great either, but the core is strong and should be a lot better. Russ’s pickups haven’t been particularly good percentage wise, but the good ones have been excellent – namely Colon and Ogando. If you look at his totals, he’s either middle of the road or better in every category and dominant in Ks, HR, and RBIs, making a turnaround likely and providing proof that he’s been the victim of some bad luck. That said, there’s holes that are being filled with less-than-ideal players including SP, OF, SS, RP, and 3B. He could probably stand pat and make the playoffs, where anything goes.

Going forward: Trading a stud could solve a lot of problems. He’s put Fielder out there but he’ll have to get a king’s ransom and most teams have been pretty stingy giving away talent given the scarcity of quality from expansion.

Best move: Ogando and Colon have both been All-Star worthy performers.

Worst move: Russ’s draft was not very good. I had a lot of hope for Scherzer too, but he’s stunk.

14. Urban Achievers (30-70-10)

The only team with literally no shot at this point. Statistically, there’s plenty of time to make up for the gap, but this roster is not deep enough. It’s got some good guys, particularly in the rotation, but it might be time to get first dibs at keepers for next year and picks. The first team to give up always gets a pretty good bounty and Dan stands to get 2012 off to a good start when he decides to call it. There’s not rush though, as every other team is likely to at least give it another month or so. The most painful transaction of the season thus far has been his drop of Morse, who very well could be a keeper by the time its all said and done. His draft was littered with aging mediocrity – Carlos Lee, Posada, Furcal, LaRoche, R & ASoriano, Byrd, Guthrie, AlexGon, Matsui, Wiggy – which wasn’t the best move for an expansion team. Jason’s X-Factor approach probably would’ve ben a better way to go and possibly yielded some keepers.

Going forward: Dump, dump, dump.

Best move: Trading Cahill at his peak was a good move.

Worst move: The keepers were not great, especially compared to Anal’s. And trading your first round pick was ill-advised.

2011 Draft Review

By Adam Leech

Great draft everyone. Changing to 14 teams might be the smartest thing the league has done in quite a while (well, since changing W to QS a year ago, anyways). Not only did the two new guys hold their own, but the late rounds were as gripping as ever. It was nerve-racking and I’ve never felt worse about a team I just drafted, but I think that’s a good thing. This season will reveal who knows their stuff and who does not. Running to the waiver wire won’t be nearly as fruitful as in the past, as you’ve probably already noticed. As frustrating as the draft was, it was equally as compelling.
Now to the review. For those of you just joining us, I write a draft review every year, to get the season going on the right foot. Personal jabs aside, it’s all in good fun and feel free to jab back, criticize, etc. I just call em as I see em.

Round 7

Best pick: SP Francisco Liriano (Urban) – Tough to give this one to the top pick, but given the run on pitching, this was clearly the right move. Liriano, though a bit of an injury risk, is the most complete player on the board who can contribute mightily to four categories. Not to mention, a possible keeper.

Runner (Best): 3B Pedro Alvarez (Montezumas) – Even if I do say so myself. Seriously, I would be a complete fraud if I did not pat myself on the back for getting the player I had ranked highest. He might not be a complete product, but I’d be shocked if he’s not a keeper by year’s end. Consolatory ups to Casten as well for filling a shallow 3B position with Aramis Ramirez, who is 32, had a big second half, is healthy and can fill a box score.

Worst pick: OF Ichiro Suzuki (Keeping it Real) – Sure, he sounds good, but follow me here. Off the top of your head, how many categories did Ichiro contribute to last year? In our league, the answer is one. His .359 obp last year is only slightly above average; his career.376 is nice and he’s had good run numbers in the past, but they’re not likely to be replicated at the age of 37 on that shitty Mariner team. You’re basically getting Coco Crisp, who went 15 rounds later.

Runner (Worst): 1B Billy Butler (Cowhide) – Let’s play this game again. How many categories did Big Bill contribute to last year? One! His .388 obp is great, but 77 runs, 15 hrs, and 78 rbis in 595 abs? His power numbers were better the year before, but his OBP was 20 points lower. Not great value for the first base position. Dave might as well have drafted Daric Barton... Oh wait, he did. In the 20th round.

X-Factor: OF Carlos Quentin (One Nut) – If he stays healthy, Jason might have the best player in this draft and a valuable keeper. If not, he wasted a high pick and should’ve known better.

Round 8

Best pick: SP Shaun Marcum (Donkey) – Again, with the pitching flying off the board (five at this point), Chris got number two on my list. Other than a small concern about his health, there is no doubt he will outproduce his already stellar numbers, based solely on being in the NL with regular games against the Astros and Pirates. The drop-off to the next tier of pitcher was a significant one, in my opinion.

Runner (Best): OF Bobby Abreu (Ring of Fire) – Sure, he’s old, but he’ll also be DHing a lot this year and he’s one of the most reliable players in baseball in terms of health. It’s not easy to pass on the upside of guys like Lind or DYoung at this point, but taking the guy whose solid across the board was the correct move for Dagan, who reconciles with a long-time binky.

Worst: C Jorge Posada (Urban) – Eww. Look, he’s not bad. Even at 39, he has some promise based on his better than average OBP and the fact that he’ll be DH most of the year. But the second round? I’d take a shot at Napoli, who went with the next pick, or cozy up to Geovany and his .393 obp and 17 hrs in 322 abs. Jorgie’s average draft position in Yahoo leagues was 186, which works out to midway in the 14th round in our league. So, yeah, this was way too early.

Runner (Worst): CL Brian Wilson (Anal) – There I go, picking on the new guys. Never one to condone early drafting closers early, drafting one with an injury is completely off limits. I loved having Wilson on my team last year, but drafting closers this high rarely works out to real gains. Saves is one category. Sure, multiple appearances adds up over the course of a week, but it’s hardly reliable and is never the equivalent of more than one really good start from an SP minus the QS. And Nefalti in the next round? Give me upside/safe SP combo (BMorrow & TLilly or CBuchholz & RDempster) and wait for the JValverde, KRod, MThornton, Axford, Nathan run.

X-Factor: 1B/OF Adam Lind (Montezumas) – Few players have as high a ceiling (93/35/114/.370 in 09) and as a low of a floor (platoon).

Round 9

Best: C Geovany Soto (Grumpy) – The drop-off in the upper tier of catchers is steep. Napoli and Soto provide a bit of transition that is appealing before you get into question mark guys like MMontero and the aforementioned Posada. Soto provides a unique attribute among catchers: an amazing obp (.393) to go along with some intriguing power. Calculate 550 abs (unlikely, but for discussion’s sake) with his 2010 ratios and you have a 80 runs 29 hrs 91 rbi monster who vaults to the top tier.

Runner (Best): TIE SP Ryan Dempster (Moose) and SP Ted Lilly (Donkey) – These guys were very high on my list because of their reliability and consistency. One provides more K upside and the other better ratios. Either way, they will play key roles in hedging against some of the more volatile pitchers taken later in the draft. In Donkey’s case, he’s a key part to one of, if not the, best staffs in the league. For Moose, Demps fits in well with Billingsley and Danks, who are similar, consistent pitchers.

Worst: OF Angel Pagan (Sober Valley) – Tough call here in a pretty good round, but Pagan’s average draft position (equivalent to the 12th round) and the quality of OFs available (Swisher, Guerrero, Hunter – Pierre and Bourn, if your looking for speed) gives Pagan the nod here. He was solid across the board last year and 37 steals were nice, but there’s no track record here and I wonder if he will disappear into mediocrity again. I imagine he would’ve been there in a few rounds.

Runner (Worst): OF Nick Markakis (Keepin) – Here’s an example of where ADP (9nd round) is pretty useless, or harmful in this case. Markakis has an undeserving reputation as a solid fantasy contributor, when in reality his numbers have fallen across the board for two years, despite his youth (27). That .370 obp was nice, but the 79/12/60 in 629 abs was on the same level as David Murphy (ADP: 18th round, went undrafted) in 200 less abs. The Orioles lineup looks better, so that might help.

X-Factor – SP Brandon Morrow (One Nut) – A personal favorite of mine, Morrow’s insane 11 Ks per nine make him very intriguing, but those ratios are tough, as is the inconsistency. Not bad as a no. 3, but there’s some serious risk in Jason’s staff (Wandy, Myers, Peavy), so this pick could make or break.

Round 10

Best: SP John Danks (Moose) – Brian grabbed a good one here. Solid, not spectacular, everywhere, which is a good place to focus at this point in the draft. There’s plenty of opportunity to take chances later. The pitchers in this round taken after Danks all pose questions (Bumgarner, Volquez, and Cahill).

Runner (Best): OF Nick Swisher (Anal) – Again, solid here. Swisher is not flashy, but safe and will contribute in four categories. I had him as my sixth ranked OF but he went 12th at the position. At 30, he could even improve. Oh, and his wife is hot.

Worst: C Matt Wieters (Sober) – Hard to get behind a guy whose career highlight is being the first round pick of Casten without playing a major league game. His returns since that time have been less than appealing and he’s shown no real sign of growing on that. He went after his ADP, but if I was going to go for a young guy with no track record, I’d have waited for Arencibia, who wasn’t even drafted. Maybe this is the year, but I wouldn’t want to wait.

Runner (Worst): OF Vernon Wells (Billy) – Amazing that I ranked this guy as the best pick in the round he was drafted last year by Dave – the 24th. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see him living up to this ranking. The 31 hr was great last year, but 79 r and 88 rbi was just OK and .331 obp is shitty. All in all, a good round. Bumgarner (Cowhide) and Walker (Pirates) were reaches here as well, but I expect both to be more valuable than Wells.

X-Factor: 2B Gordon Beckham (One Nut) – Theme going here with Jason and X-Factors, huh? Go big or go home? If these guys don’t produce, Jason is going to be a whiny bitch this year. But if they do produce, he could dominate with the keepers he already had.

Round 11

Best: OF Vladmir Guerrero (Anal) – I expect a beast similar to last year, which is great value here. Expecting 115 rbis may be unreasonable, but over 100 in what might be a great lineup is entirely possible. Four category producer 58 players in? Yeah, I’d take that.

Runner (Best): SP Brett Myers (One Nut) – I don’t love Myers, but this is really low for a guy who did what he did last year (24 qs, 180 k, 3.14 era, 1.24 whip). It’s easy to forget how good this guy was before he got injured and started slapping his wife around, but he was an ace in Philly too. Houston is a small stadium and he could certainly digress, but good value here.

Worst: RP Francisco Cordero (Billy) – Not a bad place for a closer, but not a guy whose whip was 1.43, is in his mid 30s and has a hurling hot shot phenom behind him. I had seven or so guys above Cordero at this point, so I didn’t like this for Troy, especially with some big holes remaining elsewhere.

Runner (Worst): SP Matt Garza (Keepin) – I really don’t like him this year. He may be in the NL now, but its not a great park for flyball pitchers and he lacked the dominating qualities in 2010 that he had the year prior. Tampa seemed more than willing to deal him off, which makes me wonder if this is going to implode.

X-Factor: TIE SP Jordan Zimmerman (Donkey) and SP Jhoulys Chacin (Prestige) – High K young guys who could blossom and prove to be extremely valuable, or they could muddle their way through a innings capped-year with a 4.60 era and a dozen quality starts.

Round 12

Best: 2B Aaron Hill (Grumpy) – Even in a crappy year for Hill, he still smacked 26 homers with a respectable 70 r and 68 rbi. Just the scent of the incredible 2009 season he had makes this pick by Casten extremely valuable. I’m not one to look too closely at BABIP, but Hill’s was a ridiculous .196, which would be difficult to replicate, and explains the nauseating .270 obp last year. His obp can reasonably be expected to reach the .330-.340 range, which is just fine at this position and at this point in the draft. Nice grab.

Runner OF Adam Jones (Prestige) – Nice place to take a chance on a 25-year-old who has 30/30 potential, but 20/20 would be just fine as well. After this, the number of OFs with decent power are almost all over the age of 35.

Worst: 2B Howie Kendrick (Billy) – Another guy who is a consideration in batting average leagues, but doesn’t provide a whole lot of value in this league. The 75 rbis is nice, but not terribly difficult to replace. A speed guy with upside, like Figgins, would’ve made more sense here.

Runner (Worst): OF Jason Bay (Donkey) – Not an awful pick, but the fact that he’s already injured doesn’t bode well. And even when he was healthy last year, that ballpark really hurt his numbers. Tough to see him suddenly getting back to the production he had with the Sox. Again, with essentially 18 rounds in the books, this isn’t a bad chance, but there weren’t many bad picks in this round.

X-Factor: OF Grady Sizemore (Montezumas) – Lots of question on health and whether he looks at all like the Grady of old when he returns. If he does, this is a guy who was a top 10 overall pick not long ago and could be a game changer.

Round 13

Best: SP Ervin Santana (Urban) – A great time to take a guy who K’d more than 200 not long ago and could easily get there again. Showing off a new cutter, I expect he will be very productive in all four categories and be extremely valuable as a middle rotation guy.

Runner (Best): SP Javier Vazquez (Donkey) – Another great time to take a high upside starter. Back in the NL, in Florida, away from New York, he won’t get back to 2009, but he won’t repeat last year’s awful numbers either.

Worst: SP Jaime Garcia (Billy) – Tough to fault Troy here, but there were a lot of solid picks in this round, so I went for the guy most likely to disappoint in my mind. Starter performance fluctuates greatly year to year and I expect Garcia won’t see the same success.

Runner (Worst): RP Matt Thornton (Ring) – Again, tough to find fault here. I just like KRod, Huston, Nathan, and Broxton to a guy whose subjected to the whims of the Great and Powerful Oz, with a fireballing youngster nipping at his heals.

X-Factor: 2B Brian Roberts (Montezuma) – This guy plummeted because of injury concerns, which are completely valid. But the pay-off for this guy could be huge.

Round 14

Best: C Miguel Montero (One Nut) – Like this pick because the remaining options present serious question marks. Montero started great last year before he was injured early on and was productive upon return. Will be a solid producer this year who won’t hurt anywhere.

Runner (Best): RP Ryan Franklin (Montezumas) – The last closer taken of five taken in the round (Broxton, Nunez, Putz, and Bailey) may be the safest due to job security and health. Not flashy, doesn’t K a lot but a solid no. 2 closer. Unfortunately for me, he’s my no.1

Worst: RP Leo Nunez (Donkey) – Just don’t see him keeping this job long. His own coach took him out of the role last year, only to put him back. There’s other option in the Marlins pen and I suspect they will go to them soon. Definitely not better than Putz or Franklin, not even Hanrahan.

Runner (Worst): SP Johan Santana (Billy) – The fact that he is out until June is obviously a knock against him, but the other thing to consider is the fact that Johan is not elite anymore and the likelihood of his team competing enough to keep him active for the fantasy playoffs is not good. I could see taking a chance like this if four or five rounds, but not with guys like GFloyd, EJackson, CPavano, and Zambrano there for the taking.

X-Factor: SP Michael Pineda (Keepin) – Could be a huge contributor like JGarcia was last year, only with more Ks. But and innings cap is likely, he probably won’t make it through six innings a lot, and he’s a young pitcher, so inconsistency is likely.

Round 15

Best: OF Travis Snider (Sober) – Great time to go big and Snider could be huge this year and for many years to come. Fits in well in the utility slot, which is where he is.

Runner (Best): SP Carl Pavano (Grumpy) – Also a good time to grab a solid rate guy with QS. Interesting tactic by Casten, who is obviously hoping to pound opponents into submission with counting SP stats. I for one never sacrifice a category, but there’s also teams in the league with only one closer, which is even worse. Anyhow, Pavano is safe and will offset what I expect to be awful rates from JDe La Rosa.

Worst: SP Bronson Arroyo (Keepin) – He had a nice year in 2010, but it was terribly inconsistent. As long as he’s in that park, it will be difficult to love Arroyo at this point in the draft, especially with guys like Pavano, EJax, Baker, Cueto, Lackey available. If you’re going to take a risk, go with upside.

Runner (Worst): OF Alfonso Soriano (Urban) – Anyone whose owned him knows the pain he causes. Like Arroyo, the end results are decent, but the road to get to them is hardly worth it. Not bad as a bench guy, but probably could’ve been had in four rounds.

X-Factor (One Nut): 3B Edwin Encarnacion (One Nut) – I almost chose EE as the worst, but I held back and placed him here instead. Jason said he was going to blow our minds and he did, but I don’t give him credit for it. The whole point of having sleepers is that they’re left hibernating until the late rounds, where they’re scooped up and provide starter’s value at the cost of a waiver-level pick, while providing the fantasy player the opportunity to address other positions of need. Instead, One Nut stared deeply into that 21 hr in 332 ab stat and couldn’t hold back his nut any longer, then blew it all over our minds while the next third baseman doesn’t go for almost three rounds (not counting geriatrics like Chipper). EE’s ADP had him going about three rounds later. That said, he could have a great season and make Jason look intelligent. Jason should change his team name to the X Factors.

Round 16

Best: 1B/OF Luke Scott (Anal) – Really an underrated guy because he can be streaky, but if you project last year’s number over 550 abs (a distinct possibility this year) and you have 86 r 33 hr and 89 rbi to go along with that pretty .368 obp. Nice spot to grab him. Perhaps this will be the first year in the last five that he isn’t placed on the waiver wire.

Runner (Best): RP Brandon Lyon (Keepin) – The number of players with closing jobs and very little competition around him is limited at this point, so grabbing Lyon here was a nice move by Pierce.

Worst: RP Fernando Rodney (Montezumas) – The leash is short to begin with and Rodney could not have been worse last year. There’s a chance he stays on and picks up all those Angel saves, but they are remote and this was a desperation pick by yours truly.

Runner (Worst): SP Clayton Richard (Moose) – Ugly whip, mediocre strikeout rate, and more intriguing options on the board.

X-Factor: 1B/OF Michael Morse – See Encarnacion, Edwin. Remember Shelton, Chris. Lots to like, plenty to fear.

Round 17

Best: OF Jose Tabata (Keepin) – A speedy 22-year-old leadoff guy with a .346 obp hitting in front of an emerging Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez heart of the order? Sign me up. Could be one of the steals of the draft.

Runner (Best) RP Craig Kimbrel (Sober) – When selecting closers at this point in the draft, a smart strategy is to go for guys who may be part of a closer-by-committee but have enough K/9 upside to make it worth it to roster them even without saves. Kimbrel’s K rate was an mind-boggling 17.4 per inning.

Worst: C Carlos Ruiz (Anal) – There’s just not a lot here. Sure, he had a great OBP and a good ball park, but at this point I think it’s worth taking a shot. Arencibia, maybe Salty, Lucroy, or Conger? I just don’t think this guy is rosterable and there were still seven rounds to go.

Runner (Worst): RP Rafeal Soraino (Urban) – (Pssst… This league doesn’t count holds. Pass it on.)

X-Factor – TIE SP Jake Peavy (One Nut) and SP Eric Bedard (Montezumas) – Both are injury risks and both have tremendous upside of a keeper-worthy pitcher.

Round 18

Best: Ian Stewart (Montezumas) – A 25-year-old third baseman with gigantic power potential playing a shallow position, in Colorado, and drafted in the 18th round? Yes, there’s plenty to like here.

Runner (Best): Will Venebale (Billy) – Exactly the kind of player to draft in this area. He had 13 hrs and 29 steals in 392 abs last year. Imagine what he could do with 200 more abs.

Worst: Dominic Brown (Angry) – Given the fact that he was likely in a platoon situation to begin with, I didn’t really like Brown this year even prior to breaking his hand. Maybe he’ll be productive around the last couple months of the season, but my guess is he won’t be on your roster.

Runner (Worst): RA Dickey (Prestige) – Just don’t trust him. That’s it.

X-Factor: RP Brad Lidge (One Nut) – I’m doing this more or less to prove a point. Taking chances is a good thing when hedged with consistent, healthy producers. Jason took a chance here, knowing the MRI was on Tuesday, and then he was gone for 3-6, but maybe longer. Mr. X Factor got burned here.

Round 19

Best: C Kurt Suzuki (Keepin) – There’s something to be said for a catcher that plays almost every day with a solid fantasy output. Of course that something could be ouch if he’s run into the ground like Russell Martin was. Regardless, with only so many good catchers, Suzuki is a solid find in the late rounds.

Runner (Best): SP Scott Baker (Angry) – Baker is the pick most likely to outproduce his draft position in this round. Anal’s pick, Cueto, could as well, but a forearm injury could be nothing or it could mean Tommy John surgery is in his near future. Baker has a bad 2010 but 7.8 K/9 is solid and he has produce solid WHIP in years past. Combined with a pitcher’s park, a nice selection.

Worst: 3B Omar Infante (Sober) – If I had put “UT” before his name, I wouldn’t really have an issue with this pick. A bench player with position eligibility basically everywhere, hitting in front of guys like Hanley and Stanton can be extremely valuable. But Infante should never be drafted as a starter, certainly not at 3B. Not sure there were a lot of compelling options at the hot corner (Chris Johnson or Freese are decent), but this is an obvious weak spot that should’ve been addressed sooner.

Runner: RP Jonny Venters (Ring) – Not an awful pick, I just think Kimbrel was the guy to own. Would’ve grabbed an SP here.

X-Factor: SP Homer Bailey (Prestige) – If he can produce like he did in the second half, he’d be a great pick here.

Round 20

Best: 2B Ryan Raburn (One Nut) – Love this pick with the 2B eligibility and the promise of a full season of playing time. Nice guy to have on the bench filling in with Utley’s injury and GBeckham’s uncertainty.

Runner: TIE SP JA Happ (Sober) and SP Jeff Niemann (Ring) – Good value here with both guys. Pretty solid contributors in all categories, who can go on nice hot streaks. Niemann was one of the best in the AL in the first half last year.

Worst: OF Bryce Harper (Keepin) – I never condone holding onto a minor leaguer and having him occupy a roster spot for an uncertain period of time, just for the outside shot that they come up after a month and produce immediately. Sometimes it works out, like with Russ’s pick up of Mike Stanton last year, but most of the time they end up like Russ’s Desmond Jennings pick. With basically no possibility of Harper coming up before September and the extremely low probability of him contributing enough to prove his worth as keeper for Pierce, this pick made absolutely no sense. Cut him now and cut your losses.

Runner (Worst): SS Mike Aviles (Donkey) – Not bad as back up to both SS and 3B, but he should not be an everyday player in an OBP league.

X-Factor: OF Nate McLouth (Prestige) – Great pick here. If last year proves just to be an outlier and he goes back to a 20/20 guy, it will make Lars look very smart. Or he could be benched and on waivers in two weeks.

Round 21

Best: OF Josh Willingham (Ring) – Sort of a classic Dagan-like guy with solid potential and good OBP (.389 last year, .367 career). He’s one of those guys that used to be found on the waiver wire, but not with 14 teams now. He could play a key role on this team.

Runner (Best): SP Chris Young (Donkey) – Remember when he has a 3.12 era, 1.10 whip and 167 Ks? Yeah, that was four years ago. But it’s a nice chance to take at this point. If he’s healthy, he’ll be extremely valuable.

Worst: SP John Garland (Keepin) – Not only is he mediocre, he’s injured.

Runner (Worst): SP Brian Duensing (One Nut) – Just mediocre.

X-Factor: RP Jake McGee (Montezumas) – If he holds the closer role for most the year, he could be huge. Or he could just be a set-up guy.

Round 22

Best: OF Magglio Ordonez (Montezumas) – Considering how productive he was before he broke his ankle last year, he was a steal here, even at the age of 37. Hitting between MCabrera and VMart is a nice place to be.

Runner: 3B/OF Alex Gordon (Billy) – Nice place to take a shot at this post-post-hype sleeper. With third base eligibility and the three-spot in the Royals line-up, he could actually pay-off. Staying healthy has never been easy, but not that much of a sacrifice if he flops again.

Worst: OF Desmond Jennings (Keepin) – I find it difficult to criticize picks at this juncture of the draft because, in most cases, its worth a shot no matter who you take. But Pierce is making it easy. The only thing you can do to hurt yourself at this point in the draft is to take occupy a non-DL spot with someone who won’t play. Pierce has done it twice, despite having a pretty good team that could compete this year.

Runner (Worst): 2B Dustin Ackley (Anal) – Same deal. I expect him to be one who contributes immediately when he is called up, but who knows when that will be?

X-Factor: SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Cowhide) – A great chance to take here, considering his productivity two years ago. Dave will know early on if its going to be another one of those years.

Round 23

Best: SP Derek Lowe (One Nut) – Not a great year last year, but he could easily turn it around and be a solid mid-rotation find on a team full of risks and injuries.

Runner (Best): RP Kyle Farnsworth (Donkey) – Likely to get the first shot at saves. Why not take a shot that he holds on to the job?

Worst: RP Brian Fuentes (Moose) – Proved last year he’s got no business being a closer on a major league team. May get early saves, but indications are that ABailey is fine and could be back in a couple weeks. Then its back to the waiver wire for Fuentes.

Runner (Worst): OF David DeJesus (Keeping) – The Jesus is just an ordinary player whose .384 obp in 2010 was about 25 points above his career average, making it likely that the only category he was truly helping before he got injured last year will just be average. No power, no speed, no upside.

X-Factor: 2B/OF Sean Rodriguez (Billy) – Last year’s spring training star had some value last year, but not a lot, due mostly to playing time issues. He’s playing this year and has 20/20 upside. OBP will never good, but a good bench player.

Round 24

Best: SS Yunel Escobar (Montezumas) – Wasn’t going to go for a SS here with the reliable Jeter already on my roster, but couldn’t pass up the number two hitter in a stacked lineup in Toronto. I ranked him ninth among SS and was more than happy to scoop him up here.

Runner (Best): SP Jake Westbrook (Moose) – I expect Westbrook to be very solid this year and to get more than 20 QS. To find that in the last round is a great feat.

Worst: C Miguel Olivio (Anal) – The only thing worse than rostering one catcher that should be on the waiver wire is having two. Olivio’s appeal quickly disappeared as soon as he signed in Seattle (Milton Bradley was batting third on opening day), with that lineup and that park.

Runner (Grumpy): RP Brandon Webb (Grumpy) – Tough to know Casten for taking a shot here, but I just don’t think BWebb will play much this year. I had him ranked pretty high in the winter, but the news about his progress never got better. There’s better use of your DL slot.

X-Factor: RP Jordan Walden (Angry) – If Rodney struggles out of the gate, Walden is the likely choice to take on all those Angel save opportunities. And he’s worth holding onto and playing because of his high K rate.