Grumpy Munchkins receive:
Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick
One Nut receives:
Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick
As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.
For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.
Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.
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