Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Trade Review - Colon and Angry Pirates

The Angry Pirates receive:

Mike Stanton, Gio Gonzalez, Max Sherzer, Phil Hughes, 8th rounder

Colon No Like Salad receive:

Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Rajai Davis, David Freese, 6th rounder

Kyle took a considerable risk here in trading two solid keepers for one good one (not sold on Gio yet). Hamels has really been undervalued in recent years for no real reason other than a mediocre 2009 season. He’s young and a high K, low rate guy, pitching in the NL east and has been more valuable in 2011 than Felix, who is still the prize of this trade from a keeper perspective. Not to mention that earlier this season, Felix cost Kyle Carlos Santana, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and two 3rd rounders (he received a 6th and a 12th). Make no mistake about it, Stanton is a young, stud home run hitter in a time when those are hard to come by, but these are two of the top five keeper pitchers in the league. He’s also barely old enough to drink, which means volatility is likely and his peak is still five years away (though, those peak years could be fun). All that said, if you looked at this trade at the beginning of the season, you could make the argument it favored Kyle because Scherzer and Hughes were both considered quality second-tier SPs. If those two turn it around and the Pirates make a serious run, you can hardly blame Kyle. But it might hurt more going into next season than it probably could’ve because I think he could’ve gotten more.

For Colon, I like the move. For some reason, this team isn’t performing to the level of the competition. There are still some great offensive players without Stanton, who could provide a push to the playoffs. Meanwhile his staff surpasses Peirce’s for best in the league (at least, on paper) with Halladay, Felix, Kershaw, and Hamels leading the way. It’s a move that allows him to look for next season without giving up on this season, which is brilliant for the current structure and standing of this team. If it does fall apart, there’s an excellent opportunity to upgrade keepers, which also includes CarGo, Cano, and JHamilton. Oh and lets not forget Wainright has been sitting in the DL spot the entire season. It would not shock me if Roy, Felix, Clayton, Cole, and Adam W were the top five fantasy pitchers in the league in 2012, so whether its players or trades there’s a lot to play with here. And I think it would’ve taken some convincing to get someone to take Gio in a trade with full confidence they were receiving a keeper, for no other reason than lack of name recognition.

All in all, it’s a risk that could pay off big for Kyle and a smart, calculated decision by Russ that puts him in great shape going forward.

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