2011 Draft Review

By Adam Leech

Great draft everyone. Changing to 14 teams might be the smartest thing the league has done in quite a while (well, since changing W to QS a year ago, anyways). Not only did the two new guys hold their own, but the late rounds were as gripping as ever. It was nerve-racking and I’ve never felt worse about a team I just drafted, but I think that’s a good thing. This season will reveal who knows their stuff and who does not. Running to the waiver wire won’t be nearly as fruitful as in the past, as you’ve probably already noticed. As frustrating as the draft was, it was equally as compelling.
Now to the review. For those of you just joining us, I write a draft review every year, to get the season going on the right foot. Personal jabs aside, it’s all in good fun and feel free to jab back, criticize, etc. I just call em as I see em.

Round 7

Best pick: SP Francisco Liriano (Urban) – Tough to give this one to the top pick, but given the run on pitching, this was clearly the right move. Liriano, though a bit of an injury risk, is the most complete player on the board who can contribute mightily to four categories. Not to mention, a possible keeper.

Runner (Best): 3B Pedro Alvarez (Montezumas) – Even if I do say so myself. Seriously, I would be a complete fraud if I did not pat myself on the back for getting the player I had ranked highest. He might not be a complete product, but I’d be shocked if he’s not a keeper by year’s end. Consolatory ups to Casten as well for filling a shallow 3B position with Aramis Ramirez, who is 32, had a big second half, is healthy and can fill a box score.

Worst pick: OF Ichiro Suzuki (Keeping it Real) – Sure, he sounds good, but follow me here. Off the top of your head, how many categories did Ichiro contribute to last year? In our league, the answer is one. His .359 obp last year is only slightly above average; his career.376 is nice and he’s had good run numbers in the past, but they’re not likely to be replicated at the age of 37 on that shitty Mariner team. You’re basically getting Coco Crisp, who went 15 rounds later.

Runner (Worst): 1B Billy Butler (Cowhide) – Let’s play this game again. How many categories did Big Bill contribute to last year? One! His .388 obp is great, but 77 runs, 15 hrs, and 78 rbis in 595 abs? His power numbers were better the year before, but his OBP was 20 points lower. Not great value for the first base position. Dave might as well have drafted Daric Barton... Oh wait, he did. In the 20th round.

X-Factor: OF Carlos Quentin (One Nut) – If he stays healthy, Jason might have the best player in this draft and a valuable keeper. If not, he wasted a high pick and should’ve known better.

Round 8

Best pick: SP Shaun Marcum (Donkey) – Again, with the pitching flying off the board (five at this point), Chris got number two on my list. Other than a small concern about his health, there is no doubt he will outproduce his already stellar numbers, based solely on being in the NL with regular games against the Astros and Pirates. The drop-off to the next tier of pitcher was a significant one, in my opinion.

Runner (Best): OF Bobby Abreu (Ring of Fire) – Sure, he’s old, but he’ll also be DHing a lot this year and he’s one of the most reliable players in baseball in terms of health. It’s not easy to pass on the upside of guys like Lind or DYoung at this point, but taking the guy whose solid across the board was the correct move for Dagan, who reconciles with a long-time binky.

Worst: C Jorge Posada (Urban) – Eww. Look, he’s not bad. Even at 39, he has some promise based on his better than average OBP and the fact that he’ll be DH most of the year. But the second round? I’d take a shot at Napoli, who went with the next pick, or cozy up to Geovany and his .393 obp and 17 hrs in 322 abs. Jorgie’s average draft position in Yahoo leagues was 186, which works out to midway in the 14th round in our league. So, yeah, this was way too early.

Runner (Worst): CL Brian Wilson (Anal) – There I go, picking on the new guys. Never one to condone early drafting closers early, drafting one with an injury is completely off limits. I loved having Wilson on my team last year, but drafting closers this high rarely works out to real gains. Saves is one category. Sure, multiple appearances adds up over the course of a week, but it’s hardly reliable and is never the equivalent of more than one really good start from an SP minus the QS. And Nefalti in the next round? Give me upside/safe SP combo (BMorrow & TLilly or CBuchholz & RDempster) and wait for the JValverde, KRod, MThornton, Axford, Nathan run.

X-Factor: 1B/OF Adam Lind (Montezumas) – Few players have as high a ceiling (93/35/114/.370 in 09) and as a low of a floor (platoon).

Round 9

Best: C Geovany Soto (Grumpy) – The drop-off in the upper tier of catchers is steep. Napoli and Soto provide a bit of transition that is appealing before you get into question mark guys like MMontero and the aforementioned Posada. Soto provides a unique attribute among catchers: an amazing obp (.393) to go along with some intriguing power. Calculate 550 abs (unlikely, but for discussion’s sake) with his 2010 ratios and you have a 80 runs 29 hrs 91 rbi monster who vaults to the top tier.

Runner (Best): TIE SP Ryan Dempster (Moose) and SP Ted Lilly (Donkey) – These guys were very high on my list because of their reliability and consistency. One provides more K upside and the other better ratios. Either way, they will play key roles in hedging against some of the more volatile pitchers taken later in the draft. In Donkey’s case, he’s a key part to one of, if not the, best staffs in the league. For Moose, Demps fits in well with Billingsley and Danks, who are similar, consistent pitchers.

Worst: OF Angel Pagan (Sober Valley) – Tough call here in a pretty good round, but Pagan’s average draft position (equivalent to the 12th round) and the quality of OFs available (Swisher, Guerrero, Hunter – Pierre and Bourn, if your looking for speed) gives Pagan the nod here. He was solid across the board last year and 37 steals were nice, but there’s no track record here and I wonder if he will disappear into mediocrity again. I imagine he would’ve been there in a few rounds.

Runner (Worst): OF Nick Markakis (Keepin) – Here’s an example of where ADP (9nd round) is pretty useless, or harmful in this case. Markakis has an undeserving reputation as a solid fantasy contributor, when in reality his numbers have fallen across the board for two years, despite his youth (27). That .370 obp was nice, but the 79/12/60 in 629 abs was on the same level as David Murphy (ADP: 18th round, went undrafted) in 200 less abs. The Orioles lineup looks better, so that might help.

X-Factor – SP Brandon Morrow (One Nut) – A personal favorite of mine, Morrow’s insane 11 Ks per nine make him very intriguing, but those ratios are tough, as is the inconsistency. Not bad as a no. 3, but there’s some serious risk in Jason’s staff (Wandy, Myers, Peavy), so this pick could make or break.

Round 10

Best: SP John Danks (Moose) – Brian grabbed a good one here. Solid, not spectacular, everywhere, which is a good place to focus at this point in the draft. There’s plenty of opportunity to take chances later. The pitchers in this round taken after Danks all pose questions (Bumgarner, Volquez, and Cahill).

Runner (Best): OF Nick Swisher (Anal) – Again, solid here. Swisher is not flashy, but safe and will contribute in four categories. I had him as my sixth ranked OF but he went 12th at the position. At 30, he could even improve. Oh, and his wife is hot.

Worst: C Matt Wieters (Sober) – Hard to get behind a guy whose career highlight is being the first round pick of Casten without playing a major league game. His returns since that time have been less than appealing and he’s shown no real sign of growing on that. He went after his ADP, but if I was going to go for a young guy with no track record, I’d have waited for Arencibia, who wasn’t even drafted. Maybe this is the year, but I wouldn’t want to wait.

Runner (Worst): OF Vernon Wells (Billy) – Amazing that I ranked this guy as the best pick in the round he was drafted last year by Dave – the 24th. Call me skeptical, but I don’t see him living up to this ranking. The 31 hr was great last year, but 79 r and 88 rbi was just OK and .331 obp is shitty. All in all, a good round. Bumgarner (Cowhide) and Walker (Pirates) were reaches here as well, but I expect both to be more valuable than Wells.

X-Factor: 2B Gordon Beckham (One Nut) – Theme going here with Jason and X-Factors, huh? Go big or go home? If these guys don’t produce, Jason is going to be a whiny bitch this year. But if they do produce, he could dominate with the keepers he already had.

Round 11

Best: OF Vladmir Guerrero (Anal) – I expect a beast similar to last year, which is great value here. Expecting 115 rbis may be unreasonable, but over 100 in what might be a great lineup is entirely possible. Four category producer 58 players in? Yeah, I’d take that.

Runner (Best): SP Brett Myers (One Nut) – I don’t love Myers, but this is really low for a guy who did what he did last year (24 qs, 180 k, 3.14 era, 1.24 whip). It’s easy to forget how good this guy was before he got injured and started slapping his wife around, but he was an ace in Philly too. Houston is a small stadium and he could certainly digress, but good value here.

Worst: RP Francisco Cordero (Billy) – Not a bad place for a closer, but not a guy whose whip was 1.43, is in his mid 30s and has a hurling hot shot phenom behind him. I had seven or so guys above Cordero at this point, so I didn’t like this for Troy, especially with some big holes remaining elsewhere.

Runner (Worst): SP Matt Garza (Keepin) – I really don’t like him this year. He may be in the NL now, but its not a great park for flyball pitchers and he lacked the dominating qualities in 2010 that he had the year prior. Tampa seemed more than willing to deal him off, which makes me wonder if this is going to implode.

X-Factor: TIE SP Jordan Zimmerman (Donkey) and SP Jhoulys Chacin (Prestige) – High K young guys who could blossom and prove to be extremely valuable, or they could muddle their way through a innings capped-year with a 4.60 era and a dozen quality starts.

Round 12

Best: 2B Aaron Hill (Grumpy) – Even in a crappy year for Hill, he still smacked 26 homers with a respectable 70 r and 68 rbi. Just the scent of the incredible 2009 season he had makes this pick by Casten extremely valuable. I’m not one to look too closely at BABIP, but Hill’s was a ridiculous .196, which would be difficult to replicate, and explains the nauseating .270 obp last year. His obp can reasonably be expected to reach the .330-.340 range, which is just fine at this position and at this point in the draft. Nice grab.

Runner OF Adam Jones (Prestige) – Nice place to take a chance on a 25-year-old who has 30/30 potential, but 20/20 would be just fine as well. After this, the number of OFs with decent power are almost all over the age of 35.

Worst: 2B Howie Kendrick (Billy) – Another guy who is a consideration in batting average leagues, but doesn’t provide a whole lot of value in this league. The 75 rbis is nice, but not terribly difficult to replace. A speed guy with upside, like Figgins, would’ve made more sense here.

Runner (Worst): OF Jason Bay (Donkey) – Not an awful pick, but the fact that he’s already injured doesn’t bode well. And even when he was healthy last year, that ballpark really hurt his numbers. Tough to see him suddenly getting back to the production he had with the Sox. Again, with essentially 18 rounds in the books, this isn’t a bad chance, but there weren’t many bad picks in this round.

X-Factor: OF Grady Sizemore (Montezumas) – Lots of question on health and whether he looks at all like the Grady of old when he returns. If he does, this is a guy who was a top 10 overall pick not long ago and could be a game changer.

Round 13

Best: SP Ervin Santana (Urban) – A great time to take a guy who K’d more than 200 not long ago and could easily get there again. Showing off a new cutter, I expect he will be very productive in all four categories and be extremely valuable as a middle rotation guy.

Runner (Best): SP Javier Vazquez (Donkey) – Another great time to take a high upside starter. Back in the NL, in Florida, away from New York, he won’t get back to 2009, but he won’t repeat last year’s awful numbers either.

Worst: SP Jaime Garcia (Billy) – Tough to fault Troy here, but there were a lot of solid picks in this round, so I went for the guy most likely to disappoint in my mind. Starter performance fluctuates greatly year to year and I expect Garcia won’t see the same success.

Runner (Worst): RP Matt Thornton (Ring) – Again, tough to find fault here. I just like KRod, Huston, Nathan, and Broxton to a guy whose subjected to the whims of the Great and Powerful Oz, with a fireballing youngster nipping at his heals.

X-Factor: 2B Brian Roberts (Montezuma) – This guy plummeted because of injury concerns, which are completely valid. But the pay-off for this guy could be huge.

Round 14

Best: C Miguel Montero (One Nut) – Like this pick because the remaining options present serious question marks. Montero started great last year before he was injured early on and was productive upon return. Will be a solid producer this year who won’t hurt anywhere.

Runner (Best): RP Ryan Franklin (Montezumas) – The last closer taken of five taken in the round (Broxton, Nunez, Putz, and Bailey) may be the safest due to job security and health. Not flashy, doesn’t K a lot but a solid no. 2 closer. Unfortunately for me, he’s my no.1

Worst: RP Leo Nunez (Donkey) – Just don’t see him keeping this job long. His own coach took him out of the role last year, only to put him back. There’s other option in the Marlins pen and I suspect they will go to them soon. Definitely not better than Putz or Franklin, not even Hanrahan.

Runner (Worst): SP Johan Santana (Billy) – The fact that he is out until June is obviously a knock against him, but the other thing to consider is the fact that Johan is not elite anymore and the likelihood of his team competing enough to keep him active for the fantasy playoffs is not good. I could see taking a chance like this if four or five rounds, but not with guys like GFloyd, EJackson, CPavano, and Zambrano there for the taking.

X-Factor: SP Michael Pineda (Keepin) – Could be a huge contributor like JGarcia was last year, only with more Ks. But and innings cap is likely, he probably won’t make it through six innings a lot, and he’s a young pitcher, so inconsistency is likely.

Round 15

Best: OF Travis Snider (Sober) – Great time to go big and Snider could be huge this year and for many years to come. Fits in well in the utility slot, which is where he is.

Runner (Best): SP Carl Pavano (Grumpy) – Also a good time to grab a solid rate guy with QS. Interesting tactic by Casten, who is obviously hoping to pound opponents into submission with counting SP stats. I for one never sacrifice a category, but there’s also teams in the league with only one closer, which is even worse. Anyhow, Pavano is safe and will offset what I expect to be awful rates from JDe La Rosa.

Worst: SP Bronson Arroyo (Keepin) – He had a nice year in 2010, but it was terribly inconsistent. As long as he’s in that park, it will be difficult to love Arroyo at this point in the draft, especially with guys like Pavano, EJax, Baker, Cueto, Lackey available. If you’re going to take a risk, go with upside.

Runner (Worst): OF Alfonso Soriano (Urban) – Anyone whose owned him knows the pain he causes. Like Arroyo, the end results are decent, but the road to get to them is hardly worth it. Not bad as a bench guy, but probably could’ve been had in four rounds.

X-Factor (One Nut): 3B Edwin Encarnacion (One Nut) – I almost chose EE as the worst, but I held back and placed him here instead. Jason said he was going to blow our minds and he did, but I don’t give him credit for it. The whole point of having sleepers is that they’re left hibernating until the late rounds, where they’re scooped up and provide starter’s value at the cost of a waiver-level pick, while providing the fantasy player the opportunity to address other positions of need. Instead, One Nut stared deeply into that 21 hr in 332 ab stat and couldn’t hold back his nut any longer, then blew it all over our minds while the next third baseman doesn’t go for almost three rounds (not counting geriatrics like Chipper). EE’s ADP had him going about three rounds later. That said, he could have a great season and make Jason look intelligent. Jason should change his team name to the X Factors.

Round 16

Best: 1B/OF Luke Scott (Anal) – Really an underrated guy because he can be streaky, but if you project last year’s number over 550 abs (a distinct possibility this year) and you have 86 r 33 hr and 89 rbi to go along with that pretty .368 obp. Nice spot to grab him. Perhaps this will be the first year in the last five that he isn’t placed on the waiver wire.

Runner (Best): RP Brandon Lyon (Keepin) – The number of players with closing jobs and very little competition around him is limited at this point, so grabbing Lyon here was a nice move by Pierce.

Worst: RP Fernando Rodney (Montezumas) – The leash is short to begin with and Rodney could not have been worse last year. There’s a chance he stays on and picks up all those Angel saves, but they are remote and this was a desperation pick by yours truly.

Runner (Worst): SP Clayton Richard (Moose) – Ugly whip, mediocre strikeout rate, and more intriguing options on the board.

X-Factor: 1B/OF Michael Morse – See Encarnacion, Edwin. Remember Shelton, Chris. Lots to like, plenty to fear.

Round 17

Best: OF Jose Tabata (Keepin) – A speedy 22-year-old leadoff guy with a .346 obp hitting in front of an emerging Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez heart of the order? Sign me up. Could be one of the steals of the draft.

Runner (Best) RP Craig Kimbrel (Sober) – When selecting closers at this point in the draft, a smart strategy is to go for guys who may be part of a closer-by-committee but have enough K/9 upside to make it worth it to roster them even without saves. Kimbrel’s K rate was an mind-boggling 17.4 per inning.

Worst: C Carlos Ruiz (Anal) – There’s just not a lot here. Sure, he had a great OBP and a good ball park, but at this point I think it’s worth taking a shot. Arencibia, maybe Salty, Lucroy, or Conger? I just don’t think this guy is rosterable and there were still seven rounds to go.

Runner (Worst): RP Rafeal Soraino (Urban) – (Pssst… This league doesn’t count holds. Pass it on.)

X-Factor – TIE SP Jake Peavy (One Nut) and SP Eric Bedard (Montezumas) – Both are injury risks and both have tremendous upside of a keeper-worthy pitcher.

Round 18

Best: Ian Stewart (Montezumas) – A 25-year-old third baseman with gigantic power potential playing a shallow position, in Colorado, and drafted in the 18th round? Yes, there’s plenty to like here.

Runner (Best): Will Venebale (Billy) – Exactly the kind of player to draft in this area. He had 13 hrs and 29 steals in 392 abs last year. Imagine what he could do with 200 more abs.

Worst: Dominic Brown (Angry) – Given the fact that he was likely in a platoon situation to begin with, I didn’t really like Brown this year even prior to breaking his hand. Maybe he’ll be productive around the last couple months of the season, but my guess is he won’t be on your roster.

Runner (Worst): RA Dickey (Prestige) – Just don’t trust him. That’s it.

X-Factor: RP Brad Lidge (One Nut) – I’m doing this more or less to prove a point. Taking chances is a good thing when hedged with consistent, healthy producers. Jason took a chance here, knowing the MRI was on Tuesday, and then he was gone for 3-6, but maybe longer. Mr. X Factor got burned here.

Round 19

Best: C Kurt Suzuki (Keepin) – There’s something to be said for a catcher that plays almost every day with a solid fantasy output. Of course that something could be ouch if he’s run into the ground like Russell Martin was. Regardless, with only so many good catchers, Suzuki is a solid find in the late rounds.

Runner (Best): SP Scott Baker (Angry) – Baker is the pick most likely to outproduce his draft position in this round. Anal’s pick, Cueto, could as well, but a forearm injury could be nothing or it could mean Tommy John surgery is in his near future. Baker has a bad 2010 but 7.8 K/9 is solid and he has produce solid WHIP in years past. Combined with a pitcher’s park, a nice selection.

Worst: 3B Omar Infante (Sober) – If I had put “UT” before his name, I wouldn’t really have an issue with this pick. A bench player with position eligibility basically everywhere, hitting in front of guys like Hanley and Stanton can be extremely valuable. But Infante should never be drafted as a starter, certainly not at 3B. Not sure there were a lot of compelling options at the hot corner (Chris Johnson or Freese are decent), but this is an obvious weak spot that should’ve been addressed sooner.

Runner: RP Jonny Venters (Ring) – Not an awful pick, I just think Kimbrel was the guy to own. Would’ve grabbed an SP here.

X-Factor: SP Homer Bailey (Prestige) – If he can produce like he did in the second half, he’d be a great pick here.

Round 20

Best: 2B Ryan Raburn (One Nut) – Love this pick with the 2B eligibility and the promise of a full season of playing time. Nice guy to have on the bench filling in with Utley’s injury and GBeckham’s uncertainty.

Runner: TIE SP JA Happ (Sober) and SP Jeff Niemann (Ring) – Good value here with both guys. Pretty solid contributors in all categories, who can go on nice hot streaks. Niemann was one of the best in the AL in the first half last year.

Worst: OF Bryce Harper (Keepin) – I never condone holding onto a minor leaguer and having him occupy a roster spot for an uncertain period of time, just for the outside shot that they come up after a month and produce immediately. Sometimes it works out, like with Russ’s pick up of Mike Stanton last year, but most of the time they end up like Russ’s Desmond Jennings pick. With basically no possibility of Harper coming up before September and the extremely low probability of him contributing enough to prove his worth as keeper for Pierce, this pick made absolutely no sense. Cut him now and cut your losses.

Runner (Worst): SS Mike Aviles (Donkey) – Not bad as back up to both SS and 3B, but he should not be an everyday player in an OBP league.

X-Factor: OF Nate McLouth (Prestige) – Great pick here. If last year proves just to be an outlier and he goes back to a 20/20 guy, it will make Lars look very smart. Or he could be benched and on waivers in two weeks.

Round 21

Best: OF Josh Willingham (Ring) – Sort of a classic Dagan-like guy with solid potential and good OBP (.389 last year, .367 career). He’s one of those guys that used to be found on the waiver wire, but not with 14 teams now. He could play a key role on this team.

Runner (Best): SP Chris Young (Donkey) – Remember when he has a 3.12 era, 1.10 whip and 167 Ks? Yeah, that was four years ago. But it’s a nice chance to take at this point. If he’s healthy, he’ll be extremely valuable.

Worst: SP John Garland (Keepin) – Not only is he mediocre, he’s injured.

Runner (Worst): SP Brian Duensing (One Nut) – Just mediocre.

X-Factor: RP Jake McGee (Montezumas) – If he holds the closer role for most the year, he could be huge. Or he could just be a set-up guy.

Round 22

Best: OF Magglio Ordonez (Montezumas) – Considering how productive he was before he broke his ankle last year, he was a steal here, even at the age of 37. Hitting between MCabrera and VMart is a nice place to be.

Runner: 3B/OF Alex Gordon (Billy) – Nice place to take a shot at this post-post-hype sleeper. With third base eligibility and the three-spot in the Royals line-up, he could actually pay-off. Staying healthy has never been easy, but not that much of a sacrifice if he flops again.

Worst: OF Desmond Jennings (Keepin) – I find it difficult to criticize picks at this juncture of the draft because, in most cases, its worth a shot no matter who you take. But Pierce is making it easy. The only thing you can do to hurt yourself at this point in the draft is to take occupy a non-DL spot with someone who won’t play. Pierce has done it twice, despite having a pretty good team that could compete this year.

Runner (Worst): 2B Dustin Ackley (Anal) – Same deal. I expect him to be one who contributes immediately when he is called up, but who knows when that will be?

X-Factor: SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Cowhide) – A great chance to take here, considering his productivity two years ago. Dave will know early on if its going to be another one of those years.

Round 23

Best: SP Derek Lowe (One Nut) – Not a great year last year, but he could easily turn it around and be a solid mid-rotation find on a team full of risks and injuries.

Runner (Best): RP Kyle Farnsworth (Donkey) – Likely to get the first shot at saves. Why not take a shot that he holds on to the job?

Worst: RP Brian Fuentes (Moose) – Proved last year he’s got no business being a closer on a major league team. May get early saves, but indications are that ABailey is fine and could be back in a couple weeks. Then its back to the waiver wire for Fuentes.

Runner (Worst): OF David DeJesus (Keeping) – The Jesus is just an ordinary player whose .384 obp in 2010 was about 25 points above his career average, making it likely that the only category he was truly helping before he got injured last year will just be average. No power, no speed, no upside.

X-Factor: 2B/OF Sean Rodriguez (Billy) – Last year’s spring training star had some value last year, but not a lot, due mostly to playing time issues. He’s playing this year and has 20/20 upside. OBP will never good, but a good bench player.

Round 24

Best: SS Yunel Escobar (Montezumas) – Wasn’t going to go for a SS here with the reliable Jeter already on my roster, but couldn’t pass up the number two hitter in a stacked lineup in Toronto. I ranked him ninth among SS and was more than happy to scoop him up here.

Runner (Best): SP Jake Westbrook (Moose) – I expect Westbrook to be very solid this year and to get more than 20 QS. To find that in the last round is a great feat.

Worst: C Miguel Olivio (Anal) – The only thing worse than rostering one catcher that should be on the waiver wire is having two. Olivio’s appeal quickly disappeared as soon as he signed in Seattle (Milton Bradley was batting third on opening day), with that lineup and that park.

Runner (Grumpy): RP Brandon Webb (Grumpy) – Tough to know Casten for taking a shot here, but I just don’t think BWebb will play much this year. I had him ranked pretty high in the winter, but the news about his progress never got better. There’s better use of your DL slot.

X-Factor: RP Jordan Walden (Angry) – If Rodney struggles out of the gate, Walden is the likely choice to take on all those Angel save opportunities. And he’s worth holding onto and playing because of his high K rate.