Trade Review: Sexual and Urban

Sexual receives:

RP Jonathan Papelbon PHI

SP Jeremy Hellickson TB

14^th rounder

20^th rounder

Urban receives:

SS/2B Jurickson Profar TEX

SP Phil Hughes NYY

23^rd rounder

23^rd rounder

There is a lot going on with this deal that is to like and dislike for both teams. I’m going to start off by calling Hughes and Hellickson a wash, which might be surprising to some. But Hellickson lacks the strikeout potential of Hughes, and, according to his peripherals, he played well over his head the past two years before coming back to Earth (and a bit lower) this year. Both have similar xFIPs (4.43 for Hughes, 4.05 for Hell boy). Hughes has a pretty ridiculously low 29.2 GB%, 1.50 HR/9, and high BABIP at .314, which surpasses the less ridiculous numbers from Hellickson of 40.0%, 1.20, and .290. Both have been unlucky, but Hughes moreso. Both are liable to get blown up on any given day. Hell boy has a strikeout disadvantage, but has played better of the two as of late. Both are young. Neither are keepers. Lets move on.

The part that jumps off the page is the inclusion of Profar, a consensus top prospect and potential top keeper for years to come. I always thought he was somewhat overrated given the lack of true projectable power, but certainly he’s a dynamic talent with potential to help across the board at a valuable position in the future. Given the fact that Mike used a valuable keeper spot to hang on to him this year -- despite the lack of clear playing time -- leads me to think he thought highly of the youngster. So, I am a bit surprised he’s “only” getting 12 rounds and Paps for him. It’s not insignificant certainly, but it’s also not a tremendously high pick in the grand scheme (ceiling of the 14^th in 2013 draft: DomBrown, Teheran, Jim Johnson, Romo/ floor: Rutledge, Motte, ASoriano, Teixera, Hanrahan, Berkman). However, it is the maximum he could receive at this point, which leads me to believe he doesn’t want to wait a month and a half to get a better pick from the noncontenders, which he surely could. But waiting means lost production.

Paps will definitely be more valuable than Profar this year, and Mike gets a good enough pick upgrade that its hard to fault him. The pick could’ve been much better, but I can’t blame him for going all out now rather than later in his attempt to bring this team back from the dead in his first year. I also don’t fault Dan, though I wonder about his prospects for this season certainly. I do know he now has Bryce, Machado, and Profar, which could be an incredible threesome in a couple years, while Startling Marte and Dom Brown may not be far behind him.