Saturday, July 13, 2013

Trade Review: One Nut and Angry


One Nut recives:
3B Aramis Ramírez MIL
SP Yovani Gallardo SP
Round 21
Round 24

Angry receives:
SS J.J. Hardy BAL
SP Mark Buehrle TOR
Round 15
Round 18

Typical Jason, assembling his roster based on all star game appearances. Really, the names on his roster look incredible, top to bottom. But Gallardo is just the latest among the biggest names having an awful year, joing the like of Lester, Dickey, and Ubaldo (OK, it’s pretty good for Ubaldo, but that’s not saying much). With the addition of Felix and Moore, Burnett, Garza, and De la Rosa lining up behind him, I like his top 5 fine, but the staff is just OK overall. The same goes for his offense. Only Adam Jones and AGon are among the top 100 players ranked overall. Sure, injuries have played a role, but its hard to sympathize when Jason acquires guys who are hurt like Reyes, Kinsler, Willingham, and now ARam. Meanwhile guys like VMart, Prado, and Headley have all drastically underproduced, while Pujols is good but not great. If you add up career numbers, Jason would take the league easily, but right now he’s showing up at 11th in the real rankings and 10th in the actual standings, so its hard to argue that’s where he should be. Two of the past three weeks have been good overall, so perhaps he’ll be turning things around shortly. But this trade doesn’t help. Gallardo (trust me) has been terrible and hasn’t shown signs of turning things around as his velocity continues to be lackluster and no one is biting on his breaking ball. Meanwhile, ARam’s recent injury is the latest in a lingering knee sprain he suffered in spring training, which continues to sap his power and looks like it will be something he deals with all season. If he wasn’t 35, that might not be a problem and Jason could buy one of ARam’s token great second halfs for pennies on the dollar. But he is old and his demise had to come at some point. Might be now. If it is, by the time Jason gives up on him, it will likely be after a lot of weeks of wasted roster spot. Given where he is the standings, it’s a risk.

Kyle may lose out on potential in this deal, but he gains the two best players so far this year. Hardy is a streaky chap and he’s hit a cold spell, but he’s hit 16 homers this year, which is a lot – especially for someone I assume Jason was viewing as a throw in. Of course, he’s an obp killer at .294 and has not speed, but its certainly manageable given what he does provide. Once he hits a hot streak again, a contender would be smart to give Kyle a ring. Buehrle, meanwhile, started the season awful but he’s been who he is over the last couple months, accumulating six QS in his last ten starts, with a couple stinkers mixed in there. He still has value as a backend guy. If he can get that 4.89 era down below 4, he could be an asset down the stretch. With eight playoffs spots and only two teams selling at this point, guys like Buehrle may be the types available for contenders to trade for.

Kyle get 12 rounds of upgrade, including one of Jason’s highest available pick to trade, and he now has two 14ths and two 15ths. On the surface, Jason acquired two keepers for some late picks and the two guys he liked least on his roster. But sometimes it more valuable to have guys you can just cut, rather than those you feel like you have to hang on to for the name and potential value – especially when said players have severe issues like a significant lingering injury and diminishing stuff supported by bad underlying numbers. Considering Gallardo and Buehrle’s stats so far are essentially identical and Hardy’s are far superior to ARam, and given the low likelihood of a drastic turnaround for Jason’s players, Kyle gets an easy win here.

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