Saturday, July 13, 2013

Trade Review: Grumpy and Montezumas


Grumpy receives:
C Carlos Santana CLE
SP Jonathon Niese NYM
Round 24
Round 24           

Montezuma’s receives:
C Brian McCann ATL
SP Patrick Corbin ARI
Round 14
Round 16

Casten cashed in two of his best draft picks with Corbin and McCann, who were picked in the 22nd and 23rd rounds, respectively. Sure, the rest of the season might’ve gone to shit, but he can hang his hat on identifying some late round gems. And because of that, he acquires a very valuable keeper for an OBP league in Santana, who is fourth in walks this year behind only Votto, Choo and Miggy and is sporting a .374 obp. While he consistently gets on base, his power comes in streaks. He’s on pace for 19 homers this year, but that could rise quickly once he hits a hot streak. He hit 27 homers two years ago and is just entering his prime at the age of 27. One benefit that few backstops offer is he essentially plays everyday, circulating between DH, C, and 1B. I don’t think he’s had his best season yet, so it’s a nice acquisition for Brandon, who – as of now – will start next year with a nice base of Miggy, Braun, Giancarlo, Heyward, and Santana, though I suspect he’s not done dealing yet.  Niese is a guy who was pitching much better after an abysmal start to the season, but has twice been shut down due to shoulder inflammation. It sounds like he could rejoin the rotation early in the second half, so Brandon could potentially realize value for him later on. Heck, I might make a run at him if he is recovered.

Not far from Brandon in the standings, I’m not giving up. My team has too much talent to give up on. This trade helps me this year and also restores two high picks I was missing with round 14 and 16. Nothing other than a lack of track record suggests Corbin’s season has been a fluke as all his underlying numbers are quite good. That said, his 3.53 xFIP shows his sparklng 2.35 era is like to rise. He Ks guys at a rate something below your typical ace, but he’ll joing Zimmermann as guys who can help me with my pitching rate problem (6-22 on the season between the two categories –yuck). Meanwhile, McCann is no longer much of a keeper, primarily due to injuries, but he’s had a nice recovery. He is getting on base at the same rate as Santana at .371 and has actually matched his 11 homers – despite 123 less at bats. Providing he doesn’t get injured McCann should at least come close to matching Carlos for this season. Beyond that, certainly Carlos would be nice to have, but I would’ve been hard pressed to keep him given how some of my other guys have emerged. Jean Segura and Jose Fernandez are no doubt keepers, joining Hamels, Rizzo, and Upton, leaving a spot open for someone like Dunn, Choo, or perhaps Gyorko. So, the hit to the keepers is mitigated and the overall value of the deal is completely surpassed by the 18 rounds of upgrade I acquired, including losing my two last rounders.
Pretty fair deal in that we both got what we wanted. I do feel I was more aided by the deal because my keepers are still good, my 2013 team is better, and I got a significant upgrade in picks.

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