Trade - Montezuma and Billy Chapel

Billy Chapel receives
SP Ian Kennedy ARI
3B Aramis Ramirez CHC
24th rounder

Montezuma’s Revenge receives
3B Brett Lawrie
13th rounder

Trading in the offseason is quite a bit different than inseason and this trade is a prime example of that. During the season, this would be a runaway win for Troy. Third base is very shallow this year and teams that do not keep a hot corner will be hoping guys like Sandoval and ARod are available to draft (and that Troy doesn’t draft one of them with the first pick, bringing his number of third basemen to three). After that, guys like Reynolds, Moustakas, Freese, Prado, Headley, and Bonafacio are the next best options. Having Beltre and Aramis gives Troy a very good UTIL hitter and a nice potential piece of trade bait, not to mention reliable power production. Meanwhile, the near unanimous opinion of Kennedy for prognosticators was that decline is inevitable, which isn’t surprising since he was a top eight pitcher last year, with 27 QS (73% of his starts), 198 Ks and a 2.88 era to go along with a paltry 1.09 whip. But most “experts” are speaking within the context of leagues that consider wins and unless you’re Roy Halladay, no one is ever predicted to go near the 21 wins Kennedy posted in 2011, meaning predictions of a decline are overstated for a QS league. Not to mention, he’s only 27 and had a very good 2010 that lead to the superb 2011 (I was quite confident going with him as my sixth keeper had the trade not gone through). So, getting a potential ace and one of the most consistent 3Bs in the league for a 22-year-old with 150 abs would an absolute steal during the season, even with draft pick swap. Troy was looking to de-risk his keepers and add depth, and he did just that. He has a solid fivesome (Pence, Victorino, Kennedy, Aramis, and Beltre) to start the season, which will be supplemented by whomever he chooses for his six spot (Morales maybe, another trade perhaps), not to mention his choice of the leftovers with the first pick in the draft.

But this is the offseason and most have predicted Lawrie to eventually be a star, with some expecting a 25/25 season this year. With Hosmer, Santana, Kinsler, Hamels, and JUpton already set as keepers, either Kennedy or Aram was going to go back to the draft pool anyway, so it made sense for me to do whatever I could to turn one of those guys into a draft pick. Though it started as a player-for-a-pick deal, negotiations ultimately brought about Lawrie as potential swap. And despite my history with young third basemen who experienced success in their first call-up (see last year’s first rounder Pedro Alvarez or 2010 keeper Gordon Beckham), I could not resist the potential. Not to mention, the market to gain draft picks has been bone dry. The pick gives me a sixth pick in the first eight rounds, which will hopefully help. The one potential problem for the Revenge is the “potential” problem. Two of my keepers are 22 years old (Hosmer as well), while Santana is 25 and Upton is 24. Pedigree aside, it’s somewhat troubling to be so reliant on youth. But if they hold their own, I could have a nice roster of youngins (Hamels is 28 and Kinsler is 30) for years to come.