The ability to trade draft picks has surely changed the complexion of the league heading into the draft next week (Wed, Mar 21, 8:30 pm) and has left several teams with an embarrassment of riches and others with a rather large hole to dig out of. For this analysis, I factored in the strength of keepers with the draft picks to develop a sort of power ranking headed into the draft. The process included giving each keeper a score of 1-5 (the top four guys in my mind got an additional 0.5, while no starting pitchers--due to the depth of the position and lack of ability to help in five categories--was awarded a 5). This is based solely on their impact for 2012. For example, Bryce Harper, while a nice keeper, was awarded no points based on the fact that he is likely to start the season in AAA. This does not take into account the keeperability of the players.
1. Clayton & the King
Russ holds the top spot namely because Casten is keeping Harper and Heyward, for which I hardly blame him. His three first round picks are slightly less valuable than Casten’s five second rounders, but Russ will have all his picking done by the 11th and Casten by the 8th—in stark contrast to Andy, who has one pick in the first 10 rounds. Ouch. Perhaps unjustly, Russ is not deducted for keeping three pitchers—something rarely done in the league. But with such depth available at SP, perhaps having such forces in the pitching categories will be key to his success.
2. GRUMPY MUNCHKINS
Boosted by two of the four 5.5s, Miguel, Pujols, Cutch, and Reyes are by far the most dominating foursome of keepers in the league. Heyward is tough to peg though, as he’s still very young and has only one half season of fantasy dominance under his belt, while Harper has none. And with six of the top 23 picks, Casten is sure to be pleasuring himself by the end of the second round. Perhaps then his computer will malfunction and the autopick will give him VMart and Scott Sizemore. Otherwise, Casten could crush us all.
3. Donkey Punchers
Chris has a lot of depth with his keepers and was really helped by his trade with Kyle, both on the keeper and pick front. For a 2011 playoff team, his picks are pretty well spread out with no sizable gaps in between. This will be the last year Joey Bats is eligible at 3B, but he is no doubt going to fuel the offense that has a nice start in the OBP category, as well as some high-K starters
4. Moose is Loose
Anchored by Tulo, Brian’s keepers fall off quite a bit after him but are all pretty solid. He doesn’t have any picks in the last four rounds and has three thirds, which could help bring him back to fantasy glory.
5. Cowhide Joyride
I expected Dave to come in higher but his keepers, while quite good, just didn’t add up to the same level as the top four. Posey is coming back from a leg injury and Andrus is really a two-category pony at this point, but most forget he is only 23 so the power could develop and his OBP is trending upward, so I would rank him higher as a keeper than for 2012. Dave’s picks are set up great as he will be done in the 11th, but he falls behind Russ and Brandon because he still only has one pick in each of the first four rounds.
6. Ring of Fire
Seems like Dagan’s keepers rarely change from year to year, which I suppose is in keeping with his propensity to not fudge with his roster very much. Considering his dominance over the years, it clearly puts him above the rest in terms of being one of the top drafters. And despite his run at a championship last year, he maintained most of his picks.
7. Prestige Worldwide
The commish’s picks are pretty well spread out and he’s got some high level keepers in AGone, Longo and Grandy, but even though he’s at a shallow position, Assdribble only has one quality season under his belt and Stubbs only had a mediocre 2011 even though his potential is considerable.
8. (Tie) Montezuma’s Revenge
Definitely among the worst in terms of picks, my keepers make up the difference with some youthful talent in Santana and JUpton. While both ranked high by many mags, I temper expectations for 2012 when it comes to Lawrie and Hosmer since neither have played a full season yet.
8. (Tie) One Nut Wonders
With a three-way tie for eighth, all of the final four playoff teams find themselves in the middle of the pack. Jason would probably fall a spot if Braun’s suspension didn’t get overturned, but he’s pretty well situated for a team that finished the regular season in second, maintaining six picks in the first five rounds and some quality keepers.
8. (Tie) Keepin it Real…
Pierce’s rather dreadful draft position—a product of his successful championship run in 2011—hurt his overall position that include the second best group of keepers by my ranking. He only has two picks in the first eight rounds and really should’ve done something with the players he had (namely Cain and ARod) to help himself in the offseason. Championship hangover?
11. Billy Chapel
Troy’s trade with Montezuma helped his overall position going into 2012 as his lack of interest in trading picks keeps him in solid shape for the draft, including the top pick. He gets a big demerit for keeping Morales, who still hasn’t returned to regular baseball (despite positive reports) and is impossible to give credit for considering he might go two years in between plate appearances.
12. Angry Pirates
Kyle only has three picks in the first four rounds, but the rest of his draft board is largely in good shape. He’s got Giancarlo (extra points for the name change) with decent guys in Starlin and Cruz, followed by JJ, Ackley, and Freeman who have either health or youth to overcome.
13. Anal Hershiser
Decent keepers allowed Andy to stay out of the cellar as he is easily in the worst shape in terms of draft picks, with an incredible eight-round wait following the first round (that first pick better be a doozy). He makes up for some of the lost picks in rounds 10-13, when he has 11 picks. Unfortunately for him, his roster was full of guy who were good but fell just under the keeper threshold, making it difficult to deal for picks.
14. Urban Achievers
Even though Dan declared himself out early on last summer, he didn’t do a whole lot to improve his position. His trade in the offseason helped his keepers, but not enough to surpass anyone else on the list, namely because Gio and Chris Young simply aren’t worthy of being drafted in the first six rounds. His biggest problem heading into 2012 is he’s only got two picks in the first five rounds.
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