2012 Draft Review

The 2012 draft was certainly a unique one, highlighted by mass confusion at the outset, the drafting of a player who actually was another player, the absence of an owner, and painfully long waits for some owners as they paid for their sins of sacrificing this years picks for an opportunity last year. Some teams are woefully shallow, while others have some of the most powerful post-draft teams (on paper) in league history. For those who suffered through long waits, their late round selections will undoubtedly dictate how well they do. Upon initial review, some did well and others did not (team by team rankings will come later). There is still hope though. As I’ve said before, my 2011 team makes a strong case for the active, informed manager. Four of my keepers were awful (Jeter, Dunn, Posey, Josh Johnson) and I had a very poor draft (1st – PAlvarez, 3rd – CBuchholz, 4th – EVolquez, 6th - GSizemore, 7th – BRoberts, 8th – RFranklin, 10th - FRodney, 12th – IStewart, 14th – DAardsma, 15th – JMcGee, 16th - MOrdonez). But through trades and a few key pickups (Hosmer, Hardy, Santos), I won the regular season. Stick with it and don’t give up too early. While I’m sure most would like Casten’s team right now, they’re just names at this point and a lot can and will happen; hell, he already lost Madson. So even though Urban Achievers made only their second pick two rounds after Casten finished his draft, there’s still hope for all. It might mean taking a few chances, but many teams get sucked into having the best team on paper but it’s the guys that come out of nowhere like Ryan Roberts last year that are the difference between the great and mediocre teams. OK, done with the pep talk, on to the draft review. As always, feedback is welcome.

7th
Best – SP Matt Cain, Donkey: This was my top rated player available. Pierce did a remarkable job last year, particularly in the draft. But he made a major mistake by not dealing A-Rod and Cain. Both should’ve been keepers and would’ve helped many teams. Cain is consistent and particularly valuable in QS leagues. While he never seems to get Ws, he had the third highest number of QS and a remarkable 79% QS %. Kind of surprised he made it to the sixth spot, but there was a case for the other guys as well (Reynolds, Berkman, Bumgarner, and…)
Runner-up Best – 3B Alex Rodriquez, Billy: And this was my number two (again, Pierce, what were you thinking?) player. Obviously, not a great year and old, but still a talent at a shallow position made even more shallow by Troy’s hoarding of triplebaggers (Beltre and Aramis as well).
Worst – SP Daniel Hudson, Prestige: He’s fine, but not that great and doesn’t strikeout enough (6.4 per nine) to warrant being taken over guys like CJ Wilson, Latos, or Garza.
Runner-up Worst – C Joe Mauer, Keepin: I don’t have a real problem with Mauer. I had him as a guy I might take at 25 overall, but Pierce had to wait 84 picks before his next player and I think he could’ve addressed positions that were as deep. Miguel Montero is arguably better and he went four rounds later.
X Factor – SP Matt Moore, One Nut: Here comes Jason with the X factors… Moore could be an instant ace or he could struggle as most rookie pitchers do. Maybe an overdraft here, but if he’s really good, this might be the last time he’s ever available to be drafted.

8th
Best – SP Matt Garza, Grumpy: Garza had great K numbers (9.0 per nine) and was the third highest rated pitcher in my book, but was taken seventh. It worked out well for Casten, who really executed a smart strategy by keeping his talented offense and drafting the league’s deepest rotation in the early rounds, an incredible 16 picks in the first four. He took Garza, Beachy, Hanson, Luebke, Cuddyer in the 8th and all were drafted near where they should be.
Runner-up Best – SP Michael Pineda, Montezuma: Go me. Really though, when I went through who might be taken before I picked, I never imagined Pineda would be there. The upside is too high for a 23 year old. I assume some were put off by the new stadium and reports of velocity concerns, but I’m happy to get a great #2 to team with Hamels.
Worst – C Alex Avila, Clayton: Last year was great, but very unexpected. If he produces the same, this draft position is warranted, but it’s hard to expect that to happen for someone who doesn’t have the pedigree and only has one year under his belt. Namely though, I just thought catcher was a position where teams could wait, so this was a bit of an overdraft. But keep in mind, Russ had a lot of early picks so can’t knock it too much if this was one of his targets.
Runner-up Worst – SP Yu Darvish, Cowhide: Again, can’t blame Dave for taking a chance here since he also had a lot of early picks, but it’s a risk better taken, I believe, on a guy like Pineda, Beckett, Sanchez, or Morrow. He should be good, but we just never know until they pitch in a real game.
X Factor – TIE Brandon Beachy and Corey Luebke, Grumpy: Two guys who burst onto the seen and up drafts boards, largely due to their strikeout ability (10.7 and 9.9 per nine, respectively). But the bottom line is they only have started 42 games between the two of them, so regression is certainly possible, or they could both K over 200.

9th
Best – SP Anibal Sanchez, Ring: Shocking that he dropped this far. He strikes out 202 guys in 2012 and only gets drafted two rounds higher than in 2011? Dagan didn’t keep any pitchers but got a really good 1-2 combo in Latos and Sanchez to round out a good staff.
Runner-up Best – TIE RP Craig Kimbrel, Cowhide and OF Corey Hard, Grumpy: Couldn’t decide who I liked more. Hart was almost a keeper, but an injury made Troy reconsider and caused him drop farther than he should have; he was the ninth OF taken. And Dave later admitted to wanting Hellickson, but if he did, he would’ve ended up on my worst list here. I’ll get to Hell Boy in a second, but did you know Kimbrel had 10 more strikeouts last year than Hellickson? Think about that for a second. Go ahead. I’ll wait … That’s 127 Ks in 77 innings vs. 117 Ks in 189 innings. Kimbrel is a unique talent at RP and deserved to be drafted before this.
Worst – OF Ichiro Suzuki, Moose: One of those guys who rank higher in AVG leagues, his only real contribution in our league is SBs (he hasn’t scored more than 90 runs since 2008) and he turns 39 in October. He’s batting third this year, so perhaps that will help his RBIs, but really he’s just a pretty name with pretty mediocre stats.
Runner-up Worst – SS JJ Hardy, Clayton: Don’t get me wrong, I loved Hardy last year. But he doesn’t have the greatest health history and, honestly, he only contributes to three categories. With his lack of speed and inability to walk, he actually hurts a bit. I don’t blame Russ too much though. By keeping three pitchers, he needed to get offense.
X Factor – 1B Ike Davis, Donkey: I really liked Davis last year before he got hurt and I think it’s a great pick here to go a long with Cain and Ethier for an excellent first three round for Chris. But he comes with a bit of risk considering his health and the state of the Mets. But I expect this to turnout well.

10th
Best – 1B Carlos Pena, Montezuma: One of the reasons I’m happy with my draft. Eventhough I didn’t have a first rounder, I would’ve been very pleased getting my top three guys (Pineda, Swisher, and Pena) in rounds 1-3 and I got them in 2-4. One of the great ways of assessing hitters in our league versus magazines that rank based on AVG is to subtract OBP from AVG and see whose difference ranks highest. Pena’s .225 AVG vs. .357 OBP put him in the top five (along with Swisher). He’s a solid four-category producer here.
Runner-up Best – OF Logan Morrison, Donkey: I think he would’ve gone a lot sooner had he not had the injury issues, as he’s received a lot of hype in the offseason. But the hype is well deserved as he showed some power to go with his very good ability to get on base. A young guy who could blossom this year with a better lineup.
Worst – OF Jeff Francoeur, Billy: His .329 OBP was passable for a starting OF in our league last year, but did you know he’s had an OBP of .300 or lower (roughly) in four of his six major league seasons as a regular. That is just killer for that category. While that trend is quite clear, his 2012 stats were outliers in that he never stole more than 8 bags in one season before and hadn’t hit 20 homers since his first full season as a regular in 2006. I ranked him 66th among OFs, so, yes, an overdraft in my mind.
Runner-up Worst – SP Jeremy Hellickson, Donkey: xFIP is a stat that essentially is ERA when taking out fielding. Hellickson’s was 4.72, far worse than his actual 2.95 ERA. That doesn’t mean he’ll be John Lackey this year -- he did convert 69% of his starts into QSs – but there’s some risk here that 2011 was an illusion. He’s also got great pedigree and showed an ability to K in the minors despite his RA Dickey-like production last year (5.6 per nine), so he may deliver and be a top 50 pitcher. But there’s enough underlying statistics to be a bit concerned and lower his draft position. Not a bad #4 though.
X Factor – 3B Mike Moustakas, Urban: I would like this better if Dan hadn’t already taken a third basemen in the first round, which was his last pick up to this point. But it’s a pretty good chance to take on a guy who could ultimately be a top 10 3B in the 2013 draft. Or he could be Pedro Alvarez…

11th
Best – C Miguel Montero, Angry: Great pick here. One of the top catchers in my mind but went ninth. Montero is one of the few catchers that can contribute well in four of the five categories and, at 28, is in his prime and in a good offense.
Runner-up Best – SP Justin Masterson, Ring: Another quality pick by Dagan, Masterson was underrated and converted two-thirds of his starts into QSs. His 6.6 K/9 is decent and may improve this year, as he’s 27 and started figuring it our last year. Owning him last year, one of his greatest qualities was his lows weren’t all that low and he had some very good games.
Worst – 1B Ryan Howard, One Nut: This seemed like a typical Jason pick; there’s significant upside and it makes him feel better when he looks at his roster. But the risk is significant. Even if he comes back in late May, what kind of shape will he be in? I just think the risk doesn’t justify the draft position here. Might’ve got him much later. I know I wasn’t going to pick him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Edwin Jackson, Cowhide: There’s just a lot of mediocrity (58% QS%, 3.79 ERA [3.73 xFIP], 1.44 WHIP, 6.7 K/9) and volatility and he shouldn’t have gone before guys like Masterson, Holland, Wandy, Dempster, Niese, Cueto, Lewis… OK, I had a lot of guys before Edwin… 84, actually.
X Factor – 1B Adam Dunn, Grumpy: Perfect pick for Casten in that it is high enough that none of us with limited early picks would dare take the risk, but it was one of Casten’s last picks. Huge upside obviously and he’s had a great spring. Dunn is only 31, so he could recover easily… or he could be Richie Sexson – drop hard and never recover. But as someone who lived with him last year, it was just dreadful and one of the worst fantasy experiences of my life.

12th
Best – SP Jonathan Niese, Grumpy: At some points it seems like Casten has accessed my draft board somehow, as I had Niese pretty high based on his great K numbers (7.9 per nine) and xFIP (3.27 vs his 4.41 ERA). He is among a handful of pitchers I see taking the next step into the upper tier this year like Kennedy did for me last year. He has the pedigree and the skills.
Runner-up Best – SP Ryan Dempster, Donkey: I was shocked he was so bad at the beginning of last season, but he ended up putting together a pretty decent year considering, including a 8.5 K/9 and 3.70 xFIP vs. 4.80 ERA.
Worst – C JP Arencibia, Urban: This is probably the biggest overdraft of the year. Yes, 23 HR and 78 RBI is very good, but 47 R is really bad, .282 OBP is horrible, and 1 steal is probably one more than he’ll get this year. The next catcher to go was Wilson Ramos five rounds later and I’d much rather have him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Neftali Feliz, Angry: Kudos for filling in for Kyle and Gibby did a great job drafting offense, but this pitching staff is the worst I have ever seen in this league. Of the five starters chosen (yes, Kyle has only six starters total), three of them are converted relievers (Sale, Feliz, and Bard) and two were rookies, one of whom was already in the minors (Teheran and Peacock). They join Josh Johnson, who has his own issues. I love his starting offense, but there’s a lot of work to be done with pitching. Feliz has a lot of questions marks, not least of which – as with all converted relievers – is a likely innings cap.
X Factor – SP Francisco Liriano, Cowhide: Really like Dave’s staff, lead by Lincecum and Bumgarner. He’s got some really questions marks with Darvish, Jackson, Santana, Liriano, Carpenter, and Nolasco, but if they all reach their upside potential, the staff could be great. I’m very confident in Liriano this year and would’ve taken him next had he dropped.

13th
Best – RP Drew Storen, Montezuma: I give myself credit for leaping here despite my other obvious needs. I wanted to get one solid reliever, as Santos proved to me last year that one good reliever can keep you competitive in the saves category. Last year I waited until the 14th and was stuck with Franklin in the midst of a RP run. I started the run this year and got my #2 overall reliever. Nine more relievers went before my next pick.
Runner-up Best – 3B/OF Martin Prado, Angry: I’m not a big Prado guy, but I give him a pass on last year and think he’ll be a quality starting 3B this year. Considering there was basically no one left that I would want to begin the season as a starter, I think this was a good move.
Worst – RP Kenley Jensen, Cowhide: If there is a middle reliever worth drafting, Jensen is certainly the best with his 16.1 K/9. But he’s just not going to get saves immediately and might not at all. Guerra is actually pretty good. Give me Walden, Motte, or Betancourt. That said, I know Dave likes to have middle guys on his roster, so not surprising here.
Runner-up Worst – SP Doug Fister, Billy: Really not a bad round, so this is a it nit-picky, but I don’t think Fister is going to produce the way he did at the end of last season. I expect more of an ERA toward 4.00 and a K/9 under 6, so it’s not really a value pick here. I’d have gone with someone with a bit more upside here. (FYI, I don’t blame Casten for taking Madson here. No one thought he had a season-ending injury at this point).
X Factor – SS Dee Gordon, Urban: He has more value in an AVG league, but he just doesn’t walk, limiting his value to two categories really. But he could be REALLY valuable in the SB category. Or he could struggle and be sent back to the minors…

14th
Best – OF Nick Markakis, Moose: I am most decidedly not a Markakis fan and I believe I listed him as one of the worst picks last year, but this was very low for him to go, even with an injury. He’s not going to win you a championship, but he won’t lose it for you either. He’ll contribute solid production across the board and he’s only 28, so he certainly could have a career year at any point. I would’ve criticized this pick if it was in the 9th, but its great value here.
Runner-up Best – SP Brandon McCarthy, Donkey: One of my better hunches from last season, he really had a very good year (3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 64% QS%, and 6.5 K/9) and he has the park and the pedigree to improve in his age-28 season. He does have a bit of an injury history, however.
Worst – 2B/OF Ryan Raburn, Urban: We’ve seen this before. Hot springs do not equal great seasons. He had an awful OBP in 2011 and it’s unlikely he’ll suddenly change his ways at the age of 31 and have a career year, never mind one worth keeping in your lineup on a regular basis.
Runner-up Worst – SP Chris Carpenter, Cowhide: Medical issues were sort of up in the air at this point, but certainly we knew he’d miss time. He could miss the whole year, but there’s no way to know. Still, Dave had a lot of early picks, so not a bad chance to take.
X Factor – RP Jordan Walden, Ring: I really like Walden and his K ability (10 per nine) but he blew a lot of saves last year and this is an Angels team that wants to win now. If he struggles, he’ll be replaced. Or he could recover and be the best RP in baseball.

15th
Best – 2B Kelly Johnson, Cowhide: I really like Johnson this year. Hitting in the #2 hole before Joey Bats could bring him back to the production level he experienced in Arizona that made him a keeper. Think a 93/26/71/13/.370 would be valuable? He’s only done it once, but if he does it again, Rickie Weeks will be Dave’s second best second baseman.
Runner-up Best – SS Jhonny Peralta, Keepin: As his owner for much of last year, Peralta’s number were under the radar but very good for the shortstop position, where 21 hrs and 86 rbis are hard to come by. His .345 OBP was a little high compared to his career .330, but that’s a very good lineup in Detroit and he’s only 30.
Worst – 1B/OF Mark Trumbo, Prestige: I know, 29 homers is great and 87 RBIs is good, but what else does he offer? If he gains 3B eligibility, I can understand keeping him as a flexible bench option, but this was too early to draft him in my mind. The biggest concern – even beyond his .291 OBP – is the lack of solid playing time. As of now, he looks like an occasional 3B with some 1B and OF mixed in.
Runner-up Worst – SP Phil Hughes, NYY: His pedigree trumps Trumbo at this point, but this is really the last year Hughes can live off the potential he showed as a prospect. He’s still yet to put together a really good season and there’s some worry about his job security with the Pettite signing. He’s 26 now and this season will likely show what kind of player he will be.
X Factor – SP Jhoulys Chacin, Urban: I like his groundball rate (55%) and his 7.0 K/9 but that 1.31 WHIP is largely the result of his control problems. If he can get that under control, the WHIP will drop and his 3.62 ERA could fall as well, then he becomes a top tier pitcher. Or he could regress and just be once of those volatile guys you like having on good days, but really can’t stand most of the time.


16th
Best – TIE 1B/OF Lucas Duda, Angry and 2B Danny Espinosa, Billy: Couldn’t decide because I really liked both of these guys here. I actually thought of taking Duda four rounds prior. He really did an excellent job in limited time last year, including a .370 OBP. Projected over the course of 550 abs, his 2011 production would be 70/18/91/.370 – that’s great value here and I think he’ll be better. Espinosa had an inconsistent rookie season, lowlighted by the .236 AVG, but his .323 OBP is actually positive. Only two others 2B had a higher AVG/OBP difference, meaning if Espinosa’s difference stays steady at .088 and his average lifts just a bit to .260, you’ve got a second baseman with 25/25 potential and a .350 OBP. Had him queued up myself.
Runner-up Best – RP Brandon League, Ring: He’s not the flashiest of closers, with a 6.6 K/9 – the lowest among project closers – but he’s got an incredible 60% groundball percentage and tidy 1.08 WHIP. Take out one week of severe underperformance last year, and he’d probably have an ERA below 2.00. He’s about as safe as they come and at this point in the draft, safe is good.
Worst – SP Daniel Bard, Angry: It sounds like he’s heading back to the bullpen, though that has not been announced. If he does make it to the rotation, I question how effective he’ll be with only two pitches. His appeal as a reliever is to get to 98 mph with ease. That doesn’t come so easy in the seventh inning if he makes it that long, considering he’s been in the bullpen since he was drafted. May be worth a shot later, but not here.
Runner-up Worst –OF Mike Trout, Clayton: Just a preference to not have AAA guys on my active roster, no matter how good they are. Bottom line is they’re taking up a spot for a bullpen or starter that could be helping you win every week. Meanwhile, you have to wait for probably two injuries or severe underperformance for him to get regular playing time. And even then, he wasn’t that good last year. I’d love to have him going into 2013, but not this year.
X Factor – OF Jose Tabata, Donkey: If he’s healthy, I think this is a steal because he’s shown a great ability to get on base and he could easily produce a 90/15/50/35/.360 line, which is great value here. At the same time, he’s just 23 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy.

17th
Best – 1B/OF Carlos Lee, Keepin: Houston’s offense just looks dreadful, but these lineups are usually the ones that produce nice surprises. Remember KC last year? No one thought much of Francoeur, Melky, or Gordon before the season. Someone will produce there and Lee will be there (in his contract year) in the middle of the lineup with a still productive bat that can knock in 100 and get on base 34% of the time. He is 37, so, like Hunter also taken this round by Pierce, the dropoff comes eventually and it usually hurts, but I bet he proves to be good value.
Runner-up Best – OF Matt Joyce, Keepin: Pierce filled up on OFs this round and Joyce could be the best. If he gets to hit against lefties this year and produces at some level, he could bring in a line of 80/25/90/15/.360. It’s a big “if” but it’s a chance worth taking.
Worst – SP Julio Teheran, Angry: A chance not worth taking in my mind, Teheran is 21 and wasn’t very good when he came up this year. I suspect Delgado gets a chance in the rotation before Julio and perhaps even Medlen. There’s great potential, but I just don’t see it coming this year.
Runner-up Worst – SP Ryan Vogelsong, One Nut: Where I had him ranked had him barely being drafted. He got very lucky last year (xFIP: 3.87) and guys just don’t have career years at 33 and go on to find consistent success year-to-year. His home ballpark will hide some of those blemishes, but he’s not anyone I’d go in the season expecting him to convert 68% of his starts to QS this year and a 2.71 ERA.
X Factor – SP Chris Sale, Angry: Of the converted relievers, he’s got the greatest potential to have immediate success with three good pitches, a K rate of 10, and recent history of starting. But the White Sox have shown every indication they don’t plan to compete this year and will be selling off parts, meaning they will keep close watch on his innings to make sure they have him full force next season.

18th
Best – 1B Gaby Sanchez, Angry: Drafted in the 14th round last year, he produces 72/19/78/.352 and he drops to the 18th? He’s not magnificent, but he’s good and gets on base and is a high quality UTIL. That said, I traded for him last year and he was absurdly awful and I dropped him. Still, I like him here.
Runner-up Best – OF Angel Pagan, Anal: In 2010, he surprised with a 80/11/69/37/.340 line before running into some injury problems for the Mets last year. I really like him in SF and in that lineup and expect something along the lines of 2010 if he’s healthy. He’s 31 and a free agent, so this is probably his last chance to get a good contract. Expect him to produce.
Worst – TIE: Victor Martinez, Moose, and RP Joakim Soria, Anal: Really? Why? There’s absolutely no reason to roster either of them. No one in their right mind would trade for either of these two with the hope of keeper production in 2013. Anyone who keeps a 35 year-told DH coming off a torn ACL or a closer coming off his second TJ surgery in a league where no closers were kept (not even the closer with the most dominating season since Gagne) should be charged a penalty. Actually, Brian and Andy should be fined for drafting these guys in the 18th. There’s still plenty of guys who will contribute this year available.
Runner-up Worst – SS Ian Desmond, Angry: My hunch is he doesn’t end the year with a starting spot, nor should he ever really be a starter in our league. Yes, 25 stolen bases is nice, but the rest is so bad it hurts your team.
X Factor – OF Delmon Young, Montezuma: Sort of your classic hit or miss – a guy whose had past success but never seems to be consistent or able to fully establish himself. Hitting fifth behind Fielder and Cabrera should give him plenty of RBI chances. Piece together his best years and you have yourself someone whose capable of a 80/21/112/14/.336 season – that’d work.

19th
Best – SP John Danks, Moose: This was probably the greatest value pick of the draft. I don’t think a whole lot of Danks, but he’s better than many of the guys taken at this point (certainly better than every pitcher in this round). He’s 27 and had three straight seasons of 195+ IP, sub 3.80 ERA, sub-1.28 WHIP, and 149-162 Ks prior to last season’s mediocrity. Not flashy, but productive and steady.
Runner-up Best – 2B Neil Walker, Anal: Another guys with solid numbers who dropped unexpectedly. He’s not great but pretty good and at a position were production isn’t always a given. Great value here.
Worst – SP Javier Vazquez, Anal: Yeah… he retired. Injured players, kids headed for the minors, now a retired player? What’s going on here, people?
Runner-up Worst – SP Brad Peacock, Angry and SP Trevor Bauer, Donkey – Off to the minors, no help here. Might not be that good when they do get called up. Not worth a spot in my opinion.
X Factor – SP Jonathan Sanchez, Keepin: He’s the classic wild hurler; you’ll get some 11 K one earned run games and some 8 ER in 2 IP games. He has 200 K upside… but I wasn’t going to take the chance.

20th
Best – RP Matt Thornton, One Nut: The last full-time closer available was great value here. Remember it wasn’t long ago the ChiSox signed him for closer money after several dominant seasons as a middle man. He might just take the job and flourish… until they trade him, but you don’t have to worry about that yet.
Runner-up Best – SP Erik Bedard, Prestige: One a per game basis, his numbers over the last few years would get him in the second round area, but he just can’t stay healthy for a full season. I had him last season and he was great when he played, striking out 8.7 per nine. At this point in the draft, he certainly a good pick considering he’s reportedly healthy and in a no stress situation.
Worst – C Miguel Olivio, Urban: A .253 OBP … .253 … not AVG, OBP … .253…
Runner-up Worst – C Devin Mesoraco, Angry: I like him long-term, but Hanigan is not slouch and they’ll probably split time. Isn’t really worth drafting if so because you don’t want a part-time catcher and you don’t want to carry two catchers.
X Factor – SP Scott Baker, Moose: I loved him before the injuries made me (and everyone else, obviously) question whether he’d make it through the season clean considering his elbow woes already. With most, you’d brush it off, but with him its just like Bedard – you expect something eventually. But when he’s on, he’s a high-K, low WHIP guys capable of dominating, so well worth the pick, but also might not pitch much.

21st
Best – OF Jason Kubel, Montezuma: Considering I thought he was a steal when I considered taking him in the 16th, I obviously thought I made out well here. Minnesota’s new stadium didn’t fit him, but he should love Arizona – other than the fact that he can’t DH anymore. I expect solid production across the board.
Runner-up Best – SS Stephen Drew, Keepin: Not a big Drew guy, but he’s definitely worthy of drafting before this point, even though he won’t start the season active. He’s solid, not spectacular, but you’ll take solid at this point in the draft. Now it’s just a matter of waiting. Good trade bait once he’s back.
Worst – 1B Anthony Rizzo, Urban: The primary reason he is the worst is the fact that he’s in the minors and the Cubs want to see what they have in LaHair. But he also was not just bad, he was downright awful in his stint last season. He’s got hope for the future, but this season he has no value and shouldn’t be on an active roster. Belt is both a better prospect and has better opportunities to play.
Runner-up Worst – 3B/OF Ty Wiggington, Anal: There’s just more value out there. He might get full time at bats while Howard sits, but there’s a reason no team has given him a chance to get established at a position – he’s a bench guy who can hold his own at a few positions. He’s capable of hot streaks, but can be quite awful. Certainly hope Andy plans to put Roberts at third and Walker at second because Wiggy’s a bench player at best.
X Factor – 1B/OF Brandon Belt, Ring: These types of picks are the reason Dagan has been as successful as he has. Belt has the talent to have gone 12 rounds earlier, he just needs the opportunity. If he gets full-time at bats, Dagan might not only have a steal, he might have a great keeper.

22nd
Best – SP Mike Leake, Ring: Another great pick for Dagan. His 6.3 K/9 are a little low, but he had a 3.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP even with his rough start. Meanwhile, 69% of his starts were quality starts, which is a great percentage. At the age of 24, I expect growth and for that K number to go up. Stellar pick this late in the game.
Runner-up Best – UTIL Matt Gamel, Donkey: He hasn’t had great success at the major league level, but he’s shown the ability in the minors and might be a great steal. With no 3B eligibility, he’s less valuable in Yahoo leagues. But if he hits 25 and 90 rbis with a respectable OBP, that perfect production from the UTIL slot.
Worst – RP Aroldis Chapman, Keepin: He just hasn’t shown enough to earn a spot in the Reds rotation or bullpen nor has he put up numbers worthy of starting in fantasy. Waiver wire fodder.
Runner-up Worst – RP Fernando Salas, Billy: Had a good season in 2011, but Motte is the man here and TLR isn’t the coach anymore. Not really worth owning.
X Factor – SP Brett Anderson, Montezuma: He’s reportedly ahead of schedule. If he comes back by the All-Star break as planned, he could be peaking at the right time. The risk is keeping only one open DL slot for half the season and the fact that he’s coming back from TJ surgery, so control might be an issue. But if he’s good, he’s proven he can contribute solidly when healthy.

23rd
Best – SS Jed Lowrie, Donkey: I like him here. He’s got some flexibility with 3B eligibility and he’s going to finally have a full season of at bats, provided he can stay healthy, which is no given. But he’ll be in a good spot in an albeit crappy lineup and could be a high quality bench guy.
Runner-up Best – 1B/2B/3B Daniel Murphy, Donkey: Another bench guys I really like. I actually like quite a few Mets this year and I’m anxious to see how Murphy does with full time at bats. He had a .362 OBP last year and fits in nicely when an infielder is sitting.
Worst – OF Jon Jay, Anal: He’s just really mediocre at best. If you take his rates from last year and spread it over 550 abs, you get a 67/12/44/7/.344 line. Yuck.
Runner-up Worst – 1B/OF Juan Rivera, Billy: He may bat fifth, but he shouldn’t. His 74 RBIs was OK I guess, but 11 homers? .319 OBP? 33 year old? I’d rather have someone with a hint of upside.
X Factor – C Chris Iannetta, Prestige: Ladies and gentlemen, the player with the highest difference between AVG and OBP last year. His .238 AVG is awful, but that .370 OBP is quite tasty. He’s got some pop as well and could hit 20 out. If he does, this will be one of the best picks of the draft.

24th
Best – SP Luke Hochevar, One Nut: His overall numbers weren’t great, but his second half was quite good. His 4.05 xFIP is more palatable than the 4.68 ERA and his nice, tidy 1.28 WHIP is good, while 5.8 K/9 could go up quite a bit. He’s 28, so if he’s ever going to live up to the number one pick in the MLB draft, this will be the year he starts to show it. And its these types of players that will allow teams with low picks like Jason to compete.
Runner-up Best – 2B Gordon Beckham, One Nut: Definitely worth a shot here. Funny to think he was a keeper a couple years ago, now he’s barely rosterable. But he’s shown glimpses of his potential in the past and perhaps this is the year it all comes together with a 80/20/80/20 season. Don’t hold your breath, but he could.
Worst – OF Grady Sizemore, Keepin: Believe me, he’s not worth the headache. Even when he comes back, how long will he be there? Not worth the DL slot.
Runner-up Worst – SP Roy Oswalt, Anal: This all changes if he signs with St. Louis before this weekend, but he’s not expected to pitch until June. Yeah, I’m not waiting that long. He wasn’t even that good when he was playing. Definitely not worth missing out on one of the early season hot starts to wait for his mediocrity.
X Factor – SP Jorge De La Rosa, Prestige: Would’ve picked him myself if I hadn’t take Anderson. He has the high K ability to be worth waiting until July for, but I wonder how much he’ll push himself to get back. He has a $13 million player option for 2013, meaning he gets to decide if he wants it or not. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he waits another month to come back to make sure he’s ready for 2013 and collect his money. But it’s a risk worth taking.