Sunday, August 11, 2013

Open Trading - Reviews Part 2



 Moose receives:
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB
24th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
SS Andrelton Simmons ATL
17th rounder

While Moose’s offense is powerful and dynamic, his rotation has a throw-a-bunch-of-stuff-against-the-wall feel about it, namely because the list of guys who has produced more than a single season of upper echelon returns is limited to Grienke and Lee.  In that sense, Hellboy is a nice addition because he has the ability to be a good pitcher. However, I believe his 4.77 era is more of a reversion to the mean representative of who is than his 2.95 or 3.10 of the previous two years. Never a big K guy, this is a little more than I’d want to give up for him, but not a bad deal by any means. Mike continues to add midround picks that should help him be a force in 2014.
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Urban receives:
SP Kyle Kendrick
17th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
SP Zach Wheeler
19th rounder

An odd trade in that Mike is supposedly selling, but decided to try to grab a young guy with big upside in Wheeler for a couple rounds. The problem is that I doubt Wheeler does enough to prove he should be among the top 84 players (ie, a keeper) at the outset of 2014. So, not a bad deal for Dan as the likely innings cap would’ve made it difficult to sell Wheeler to a contender for anything more. And on a side note, Kendrick was one of the best pickups of the year in the first half but has fallen off sharply. Still, served a purpose for Gay Santa.

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Cowhide receives:
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY
SP Ubaldo Jimenez CLE
10th rounder

One Nut receives:
RP Kenley Jansen LAD
RP Aroldis Chapman CIN
21st rounder

All of the sudden Jason has the most high octane bullpen in the league, teaming with Street and Cishek. These are two of the top five closers in the league so it’s a tremendous boon for Jason, whose options were sort of mediocre prior.  There was a strong argument for Dave staying in this thing until the end, but he committed fully to 2014 and now has a very nice draftboard with ten picks in the first six rounds, including 3 in the 10th. The restrictions imposed will likely make it impossible for teams like Chris in 2013 and Casten in 2012 to dominate the draft the way they did, but Dave is certainly the house leader for best draft board so far. Right now, he only has two picks after round 15. In terms of overall value, I think Jason got away with one here in that I think these two should have yielded him two picks. But the market had closers available, so its not inconceivable that 11 rounds is the right market value. One sad outcome of this is you know Jason will be trying to position these two as keepers for 2014 and his offers will reflect that.  With Dave committed to not keeping closers, perhaps we’ll finally move on from that next year.
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Cowhide receives:
SS Jose Iglesias DET
SP Dan Straily OAK
15th rounder
15th rounder

Anal receives:
RP Koji Uehara BOS
SP Felix Doubront BOS
18th rounder
19th roudner

Sort of under the radar, but  a high quality move for Andrew. Koji isn’t a big K guy, but he’s been one of the best closers in the league over the past month with 5 saves no earned runs and a 0.43 whip.  Doubront, meanwhile, has been equally impressive with 22 ks in 29 ip, 3 QS, and a dazzling 2.79 era and a Doubront-like 1.38 whip. Certainly qualifies as a serviceable middle of the rotation guy, though I wonder if Straily won’t eventually be that as well for the remainder of the year. Regardless, seven rounds for two effective players is great value for Andrew. I wonder if Dave would’ve eventually gotten more, but nice to get two upgrades here as he continues his quality selloff.

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Ring receives:
3B Ryan Zimmerman WAS
SP Hyun Jin Ryu LAD
19th rounder

Cowhide receives:
3B Mark Reynolds CLE
SP Jake Westbrook STL
10th rounder

While I think Dave has done a good job overall, I think he sold himself a bit short here. Zimmerman has a spotty health history but overall very good production from a shallow position, which is why he’s been a keeper of Dave’s for so long. It’s sort of an unceremonious end to an era, in that respect. Even though Dagan was the only one in need of a 3B, the need was pretty severe in my opinion as Trevor Plouffe shouldn’t be a fulltime starter for anyone. And Ryu has been great this year with a 118/2.99/1.25/16 line, making him a quality 3-4th starter, something Dagan also badly needed. So I’d sayd Ryu was at least worth eight or nine rounds given Hellickson went for seven, while Zimmerman should have demanded at least that based on track record along. In total, I think Dagan got away with a two-for-the-price-of-one deal and Dave missed an opportunity to upgrade more picks.

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Cowhide receives:
3B Will Middlebrooks BOS
SP Roy Oswalt COL
19th rounder

Keepin receives:
SP Chris Archer TB
OF Michael Brantley CLE
23rd rounder

Pierce entered the market a little late, leaving him to pick of the bones of the Cowhide carcass. Pretty good value here in that I actually like Archer more than Hellickson (pre-injury), who Dave received seven rounds for earlier. Brantley somehow continues to be viewed as someone who should always be on a roster (usually Dave) despite his middling line 56/8/54/12/.335. The runs and rbis aren’t bad, but there’s not much here worth anything. That said, Pierce didn’t give up a lot as the difference between players in the 23rd and the 19th is not great enough to make this a serious loss. Archer’s injury makes it a little sketchy as to whether he’ll gain any value from this trade, but it sounds like he should be ok.
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Moose receives:
SP Tony Cingriani CIN

Grumpy receives:
SS Everth Cabrera SD

I chortled aloud when Brian posted in the trading lock that Cabrera is “a lower level keeper. You cannot deny that.” Ummm, I can. Keepers generally fall into one of two categories: track record or upside. Cabrera has neither and he’s a juicer. He’s 27. He has decent, not great on base skills (.330 career is more in line with what he is than the .355 he posted in his shortened season). No power, no rbis, and on a terrible offense that limits his ability to produce runs even if he gets on base at a .350 clip from the leadoff spot. He is – at best – a three category guy with no upside. That type of player should never be kept. Sure, stolen bases are great, but you can get Rajai Davis in the 20th and get almost the same exact player. This would be like keeping Juan Pierre in his prime – nonsensical and stupid. I’m shocked Brandon even bothered with this, frankly. I’d rather have Cingriani as a keeper honestly. That said, he’s not a keeper either and I wonder when the league will catch up to the fact that he essentially has one very good pitch. No picks were exchanged, so that makes it even more easy to assess this. Really, there’s no other way to view this than as a win for Brian because I find it hard to believe he’ll end up being one of Brandon’s final six. There was a dozen offseason trades and lots of opportunities to get players better than Cabrera at a reasonable price. Hell, I deal you Edward Mujica. He can do well in one category too.

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Urban receives:
17th rounder

Montezumas receives:
SP Danny Salazar CLE
19th rounder

I lost my binky Corey Kluber, which is very sad and I am still in mourning. Best two rounds I ever dealt. Hopefully he comes back during the playoffs and hopefully I am in the playoffs to enjoy him again. Anyhow, I looked around at cheap options who can be a decent contributor in his stead and almost picked up Salazar off the wire, but I was scared off by his pending start in DET and decided to wait it out. Well, Dan smartly took a chance on him and watched him K 10 Tigers, including Cabrera three times, post triple digits in the late innings, then yield him a couple rounds of upgrade. I acquired Kluber in much of the same manner, so its fitting that I grab his replacement. Perhaps it will be a seemless transition once Kluber does come back and I’ll grab another start out of the week. However, I could also fail to make another move and have Salazar struggle or get shut down and it could ruin my season. These risk/reward plays are what make this game great.
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Ring receives:
OF BJ Upton ATL
18th rounder

Urban receives:
3B Trevor Plouffe MIN
15th rounder

Dagan looks committed to buying cheap and he’s done a nice job of it. With Zimmerman coming over in another move, it makes a lot of sense to deal for a guy who was once an upper echelon player in the league who has been terrible but historically has had some stirring end-of-the-season hot streaks. This move will make Dagan look brilliant if it works out, and really isn’t much of a loss in terms of picks. He’s gotten three steals with a .400 obp since coming off the DL, so perhaps this is a sign of things to come. Great move.
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One Nut receives:
OF Michael Cuddyer COL
2B Brandon Phillips
20th rounder

S. Napalm receives:
1B Albert Pujols LAA
14th rounder

How interesting. That’s certainly not value for a “top 30-35” keeper. Sort of remarkable that Jason has gone from a top keeper like Braun, to Pujols and Reyes, to just Reyes and perhaps Phillips.  This trade certainly helps him for this year, which I am sure is all  he cares about at the moment, and frankly I’d make the same move for this season. But that’s still a tough hit to take from a keeper perspective, and he had to give up six rounds. There is an argument to be made for Phillips as a keeper as he is on pace for 122 rbis from a very shallow position. But you won’t be hearing me make the argument. His rbi total is great, but its largely a function of being in such an excellent lineup with two of the best OBP guys in the league in front of him in Choo and Votto and Bruce awaiting any pitchers behind him. Now, he could certainly be in the same lineup position next year, but that is difficult to rely on fully as RBI totals are  dependent on a number of factors.  He could be back in the lower half of the lineup, or the less valuable two spot, and he’s unlikely to have Choo there with him. Meanwhile, there’s no category juice elsewhere. He’s on pace for 19 homers, so that’s pretty good; 77 runs is not, 2 steals is not, .311 obp is awful. Maybe Jason can deal him to some unsuspecting victim, but I don’t see much here. Cuddyer is obviously not a keeper, just a guy who has good seasons every now and then. The question is Pujols’ health. As I said before, if he’s healthy, he certainly belongs in the top 84. If he’s not, it’s like keeping Teixera this year. You could be holding on to nothing. If he looks good, Mike has Gomez, Strasburg, Beltre, Freeman, Darvish to create a very nice sixsome.  Add in the six rounds, and it’s a great move for Mike. I am curious as to why he’s depleting his roster since his team certainly had the talent to win it this year, but he committed to making 2014 his year at the outset and I suppose he’s sticking by it.  He still has a very good chance to make the playoffs if the team doesn’t fall off the deep end in the next three weeks, but Im not sure he’s got much of a shot for the title. Regardless, a high quality makeover for what was a terrible roster he inherited.
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One Nut receives:
SP Clay Buchholz BOS
15th rounder

Urban receives:
OF Lorenzo Cain KC
13th rounder

The pick exchange was a little high, but all in all I think it’s a great move for Jason. Just seemed odd to make this move within the restricted rounds. He’ll kick himself if he can’t make any more high round trades and someone else opens up their roster (Lars?).  But Buchholz was dominant this year before the injury and even if he doesn’t come back til the playoffs, this makes a lot of sense because Jason can slot him in without having to use one of his playoff transactions.  He might never come back, but two rounds isn’t much either way.

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