Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Open Trading - Reviews Part 1



Montezuma’s receives:
SP Jarrod Parker OAK
21st rounder

Sexual Napalm receives:
14th rounder

Flashback to the first controversial trade of the year: Mike gets Pence, Parker and 4 rounds and I get Choo and Gallardo. Everyone thought Mike was so stupid, well Gay Santa got this one right.  Output since the trade:

-- Pence: 37/7/29/10/.317
-- Parker: 60/2.76/0.96/12

-- Choo: 41/6/16/8/.394
-- Gallardo:  41/5.77/1.53/3

Clearly, the problems with velocity for Gallardo were a bigger issue than it was last year. He’s since been traded off and Pence continues to have a nice year. He and Choo look like a wash at this point and both worthy of some keeper consideration. Parker immediately turned things around and I’ve watched impressive box score after impressive box score go by, thoroughly annoyed with my lack of patience. But so it goes. Score one for Gay Santa. Perhaps this is karma getting back for me getting 18 rounds of upgrade for Brett Anderson in the offseason. Hopefully Parker can keep it up and be a nice contributor to my deep rotation. Seven rounds in the middle sounds about right for a non-K contributors.


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Cowhide receives:
Adam Eaton
18th rounder

Anal receives:
Eric Young
14th rounder

Out of all the deals I have to review, do I really have to bother with this one. EY2 has speed. Eaton is supposed to have speed. Dave is out. Andrew is in. Four rounds may be a little too much for a guy with two categories, but given Andrew’s speed approach I guess its not a big deal.





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Montezumas receives:
RP Craig Kimbrel ATL
SP Francisco Liriano PIT
16th rounder
22nd rounder

Cowhide receives:
SP Bud Norris BAL
RP Brad Ziegler ARI
8th rounder
12th rounder

The first big deal looks like an overshoot on my part compared to what other guys are going for. An 8th rounder is the highest pick exchanged so far (tied), while the 12th rounder made me burn through my restricted picks rather quickly. Kudos for Dave for jumping on my aggressiveness and taking advantage of it. Eighteen rounds in a lot of cheddar for two non-keepers and the eighth is a nice place to get to.

That said, I identified the guys I wanted early and made sure I got them. Ryu is fine, Doubront is good, Bailey was a hot guy on the market, but I really wanted Liriano. His ability to dominate has him ranked as the 14th overall starter in ESPN’s 60ft 60in for ROS and his numbers clearly show he’s found his old self in the Steel City. In 102 ip, he’s got 106 ks to got with his sparkling 2.02/1.15 and 11 QS in 16 starts. There’s no reason to think he’ll slow down and he should be pitching meaningful innings to the very end.  With Jose Fernandez expected to be shut down in the next few weeks, I needed someone with K ability to make up for the loss and I got it. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has been his typical dominant self and teams with Mujica and Janssen to comprise a pretty damn good pen.




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Donkey receives:
C Matt Wieters BAL
UT Matt Carpenter STL
SP Homer Bailey
17th rounder
22nd rounder
23rd rounder

Urban receives:
1B Justin Smoak SEA
3B Anthony Rendon WAS
8th rounder
14th rounder
18th rounder

Holy makeover, Donkey! Chris clearly upgrades in a number of fronts, most notably with the addition of Carpenter and his crazy eligibility. With new acquisition Seager also on the team, Carp can function as a go everywhere fill in guy, which can be very valuable. He has come down to earth a bit though, so its possible Chris is buying the downswing, but a fine risk to take. Bailey is another big improvement that solidifies a group of starters that has been the dominating force that lead to Chris great season so far, but which has been inconsistent and injured as of late.  Bailey quietly has him on pace for 209 ks to go along with a 3.53/1.13 – those are borderline keeper numbers there. He can be a bit inconsistent, but still a great addition. I’m less enthused about the Wieters acquisition, as I think he’s perpetually overrated thanks to virtually unprecedented pre-MLB career hype and just middling numbers. I realize he’s better than Salty, but not by much. Ranked 12th among catchers, Weiters has 5 more hrs and 9 rbi in 57 abs, and a shitty .295 obp vs. Salty’s respectable .331. He really shouldn’t ever be considered a keeper.

The pick structure is weird since Chris actually gets an upgrade from the 18th to the 17th if you compare side by side. In total, Dan got a cool 22 rounds of upgrade for the threesome. Chris, meanwhile, may have given up more than necessary but managed to keep one of his restricted picks available.





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Donkey receives:
1B Prince Fielder DET
2B/3B Kyle Seager SEA
OF Yoenis Cespedes OAK

Angry Pirates receives:
2B Jason Kipnis CLE
OF Yasiel Puig LAD


Wow. Love this trade. So many interesting angles and no picks to weed through.

My initial thought is Chris gives up two high-end keepers for one high-end keeper and two midde-of-the-road keepers. All three of the guys Chris acquired have 17 homers. For Seager, that’s tremendous value given preseason expectations and he’s on pace for a 90/24/73/7/.361 season, which, as a 25-year-old with decent pedigree and a solid 2012 season would make him a pretty good low/mid keeper depending on how his final numbers shake out. However, the HR totals for Cespedes and Fielder are somewhat disappointing as both were expected to reach the 30-35 mark for the season. They both are capable of turning it on quickly, particularly Cespedes, so we may see some great additional value from this point forward. The team has some serious power now, though there is a considerable dearth of steals, with De Aza’s 13 the leader and no one else in double digits.

This is a tremendous trade for Kyle. Kipnis may be a little old (26) for someone going into their second full year, but he’s made tremendous strides and is on pace for a 83/22/100/30/.369 season. That is excellent for a second baseman and will be an excellent cornerstone to build around. It is important to consider Kipnis’ terrible second half in 2012 though. Meanwhile, Puig has been great and might get better. If you take his current production and project it out to 600 abs you get a 116/31/71/20/.427 line. Now, his early season pace has slowed and that projection would go down with a larger sample size, but that’s still damn good for someone barely old enough to drink. Those RBIs will go up too once he gets slotted in the power producing lineup spots. With McCutchen, these two should give Kyle another strong set of keepers

I think Chris’ team is fine on keepers, but the long-term implications are something to consider. Not to mention, it’s not like Puig and Kipnis were hurting Chris for 2013.  Both Kipnis and Puig are burgeoning young stars while Fielder clearly has peaked and Cespedes has been inconsistent enough to question what his year to year output will be. Seager is intriguing, but again, nothing tremendous. Puig is the big wildcard at 22 years old. Given the skills he’s displayed, its an excellent chance for Kyle to take and I’m not sure the end result for 2013 will be much better for Chris with the guys he received. That said, it’s a tremendous return on investment to turn a waiver wire pickup (Puig) into three solid guys that could help Chris win his first championship.

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