Montezuma’s
receives:
SP
Jarrod Parker OAK
21st
rounder
Sexual
Napalm receives:
14th
rounder
Flashback
to the first controversial trade of the year: Mike gets Pence, Parker and 4
rounds and I get Choo and Gallardo. Everyone thought Mike was so stupid, well
Gay Santa got this one right. Output
since the trade:
-- Pence:
37/7/29/10/.317
-- Parker:
60/2.76/0.96/12
-- Choo:
41/6/16/8/.394
-- Gallardo: 41/5.77/1.53/3
Clearly,
the problems with velocity for Gallardo were a bigger issue than it was last
year. He’s since been traded off and Pence continues to have a nice year. He
and Choo look like a wash at this point and both worthy of some keeper
consideration. Parker immediately turned things around and I’ve watched
impressive box score after impressive box score go by, thoroughly annoyed with
my lack of patience. But so it goes. Score one for Gay Santa. Perhaps this is
karma getting back for me getting 18 rounds of upgrade for Brett Anderson in
the offseason. Hopefully Parker can keep it up and be a nice contributor to my
deep rotation. Seven rounds in the middle sounds about right for a non-K
contributors.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cowhide
receives:
Adam
Eaton
18th
rounder
Anal
receives:
Eric
Young
14th
rounder
Out
of all the deals I have to review, do I really have to bother with this one.
EY2 has speed. Eaton is supposed to have speed. Dave is out. Andrew is in. Four
rounds may be a little too much for a guy with two categories, but given Andrew’s
speed approach I guess its not a big deal.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montezumas
receives:
RP
Craig Kimbrel ATL
SP
Francisco Liriano PIT
16th
rounder
22nd
rounder
Cowhide
receives:
SP
Bud Norris BAL
RP
Brad Ziegler ARI
8th
rounder
12th
rounder
The
first big deal looks like an overshoot on my part compared to what other guys
are going for. An 8th rounder is the highest pick exchanged so far
(tied), while the 12th rounder made me burn through my restricted
picks rather quickly. Kudos for Dave for jumping on my aggressiveness and
taking advantage of it. Eighteen rounds in a lot of cheddar for two non-keepers
and the eighth is a nice place to get to.
That
said, I identified the guys I wanted early and made sure I got them. Ryu is
fine, Doubront is good, Bailey was a hot guy on the market, but I really wanted
Liriano. His ability to dominate has him ranked as the 14th overall
starter in ESPN’s 60ft 60in for ROS and his numbers clearly show he’s found his
old self in the Steel City. In 102 ip, he’s got 106 ks to got with his
sparkling 2.02/1.15 and 11 QS in 16 starts. There’s no reason to think he’ll
slow down and he should be pitching meaningful innings to the very end. With Jose Fernandez expected to be shut down
in the next few weeks, I needed someone with K ability to make up for the loss
and I got it. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has been his typical dominant self and teams with
Mujica and Janssen to comprise a pretty damn good pen.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donkey
receives:
C
Matt Wieters BAL
UT
Matt Carpenter STL
SP
Homer Bailey
17th
rounder
22nd
rounder
23rd
rounder
Urban
receives:
1B
Justin Smoak SEA
3B
Anthony Rendon WAS
8th
rounder
14th
rounder
18th
rounder
Holy
makeover, Donkey! Chris clearly upgrades in a number of fronts, most notably
with the addition of Carpenter and his crazy eligibility. With new acquisition Seager
also on the team, Carp can function as a go everywhere fill in guy, which can
be very valuable. He has come down to earth a bit though, so its possible Chris
is buying the downswing, but a fine risk to take. Bailey is another big
improvement that solidifies a group of starters that has been the dominating
force that lead to Chris great season so far, but which has been inconsistent
and injured as of late. Bailey quietly
has him on pace for 209 ks to go along with a 3.53/1.13 – those are borderline
keeper numbers there. He can be a bit inconsistent, but still a great addition.
I’m less enthused about the Wieters acquisition, as I think he’s perpetually overrated
thanks to virtually unprecedented pre-MLB career hype and just middling
numbers. I realize he’s better than Salty, but not by much. Ranked 12th
among catchers, Weiters has 5 more hrs and 9 rbi in 57 abs, and a shitty .295
obp vs. Salty’s respectable .331. He really shouldn’t ever be considered a
keeper.
The
pick structure is weird since Chris actually gets an upgrade from the 18th
to the 17th if you compare side by side. In total, Dan got a cool 22
rounds of upgrade for the threesome. Chris, meanwhile, may have given up more
than necessary but managed to keep one of his restricted picks available.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Donkey
receives:
1B
Prince Fielder DET
2B/3B
Kyle Seager SEA
OF
Yoenis Cespedes OAK
Angry
Pirates receives:
2B
Jason Kipnis CLE
OF
Yasiel Puig LAD
Wow.
Love this trade. So many interesting angles and no picks to weed through.
My
initial thought is Chris gives up two high-end keepers for one high-end keeper
and two midde-of-the-road keepers. All three of the guys Chris acquired have 17
homers. For Seager, that’s tremendous value given preseason expectations and he’s
on pace for a 90/24/73/7/.361 season, which, as a 25-year-old with decent
pedigree and a solid 2012 season would make him a pretty good low/mid keeper
depending on how his final numbers shake out. However, the HR totals for Cespedes
and Fielder are somewhat disappointing as both were expected to reach the 30-35
mark for the season. They both are capable of turning it on quickly, particularly
Cespedes, so we may see some great additional value from this point forward.
The team has some serious power now, though there is a considerable dearth of
steals, with De Aza’s 13 the leader and no one else in double digits.
This
is a tremendous trade for Kyle. Kipnis may be a little old (26) for someone
going into their second full year, but he’s made tremendous strides and is on
pace for a 83/22/100/30/.369 season. That is excellent for a second baseman and
will be an excellent cornerstone to build around. It is important to consider
Kipnis’ terrible second half in 2012 though. Meanwhile, Puig has been great and
might get better. If you take his current production and project it out to 600
abs you get a 116/31/71/20/.427 line. Now, his early season pace has slowed and
that projection would go down with a larger sample size, but that’s still damn
good for someone barely old enough to drink. Those RBIs will go up too once he
gets slotted in the power producing lineup spots. With McCutchen, these two
should give Kyle another strong set of keepers
I
think Chris’ team is fine on keepers, but the long-term implications are
something to consider. Not to mention, it’s not like Puig and Kipnis were
hurting Chris for 2013. Both Kipnis and
Puig are burgeoning young stars while Fielder clearly has peaked and Cespedes
has been inconsistent enough to question what his year to year output will be.
Seager is intriguing, but again, nothing tremendous. Puig is the big wildcard
at 22 years old. Given the skills he’s displayed, its an excellent chance for
Kyle to take and I’m not sure the end result for 2013 will be much better for
Chris with the guys he received. That said, it’s a tremendous return on
investment to turn a waiver wire pickup (Puig) into three solid guys that could
help Chris win his first championship.
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