Monday, August 28, 2017

Pre-Open Trading Period Trade Reviews

LOC receives:
Paul DeJong StL - 2B,3B,SS
Round 20

MOOSE receives:
Matt Kemp Atl - OF DL
Round 14
               
I have to admit, I scoffed a bit at this deal after I saw it. He really just seemed like a flash in the pan type who would be forgotten shortly after people started to realize he was there. But he is 299 abs in, and I cannot in good conscious continue to ignore the production. His 162-game average amounts to 78/42/103/0/.328. That’s pretty freaking good from the SS position.  There’s all sorts of reasons to not expect that to happen, but there’s no reason to admonish Chad for getting 6 HR, 17 RBI and .355 in the 24 games he’s had him for a measly six rounds.

            
THOR receives:
Dustin Pedroia Bos - 2B DL
Round 24

MOOSE receives:
Round 20

This one looked like a stroke of genius at the time as Thor got a red hot hitter with a history of run production and potential multi-category contributions. At four rounds, that’s remarkable. BUT… he got injured, recovered, and got injured again. Chris has seen 8 at bats. He didn’t give up much but he got very little.

            
THOR receives:
Danny Duffy KC - P
Round 20
Round 22

S. NAPALM receives:
John Lackey ChC - P
Round 11
Round 18

The values of Gibby’s starters begin to line up:  Nelson for 14, Duffy for 13, Arrieta 10, Lynn for 7. It’s hard to peg down which might be a keeper, but if you consider them at the moment of the trade, the greatest likelihood was that none get kept and Gibby gets 44 rounds for four players.  Just like the other guys, Duffy has delivered for Shomphe, with 41 Ks in 26 IP and 3.96/1.18 (minor injury sent to DL recently, should miss the minimum). It’s a hefty price, but he probably represents the highest upside and was clearly the most compelling attainable asset.

While Gibby did a very good job selling off his pieces, you have to wonder where he’d be in the standings if these four players were still on his roster. It’s a tough call.

            
S. NAPALM receives:
Amed Rosario NYM - SS
Pat Neshek Col - P
Vince Velasquez Phi - P DL
Round 11

DONKEY receives:
Raisel Iglesias Cin - P
Jake Arrieta ChC - P
Round 23

Gibby keeps selling useful chunks and grabs his highest pick yet for one of his biggest chips. For sure, this is not the Arrieta of 2015, but the modern version remains quite excellent.  He’s converted 5 of 6 starts to QS since the trade, Ked 38 in 38, and posted dominant 1.66/1.03 in the meantime. If this continues, this could be the best player-for-draft-pick value of the season. Aces don’t grow on trees and when Arrieta is on, there are few better. He has had stretches where you have no idea whether to start him or sit him because his performance is entirely based on health and delivery consistency. He’s 31 and  projects to fall short of the 200 K mark again, so keeperability is questionable. Rasiel is a very good reliever on a bad team, so it’s a decent upgrade and represents a couple rounds in the deal. When you factor that in, Arrieta for 10 is a steal.

On Napalm’s side, you have to mention Rosario because I know that was I target, but there’s very little reason to assign him much value in the deal. His walk rate was 5.4% in AAA and he has neither shown prolific speed or any sort of power to speak of. He’s got 4 jacks and 4 sbs in 26 games, which isn’t bad, but he’s K’ing nearly 30% of the time and walking 2%, resulting in a .271 OBP. He’s more of a potential real star than a potential fantasy star

            
MONTEZUMAS receives:
Lance Lynn StL - P
Round 24 (traded from Brokeback Moundmen)

S. NAPALM receives:
Mike Montgomery ChC - P
Round 17

It’s really hard to value Lance Lynn. His WHIP is routinely below average and his underlying stats scream “AVERAGE” rather than SP2, but yet, his numbers often end up in the SP2-4 range. With the benefit of hindsight, we can Montezumas acquired 5 QS in 6 outings, with a lackluster 23 K in 36 IP and an inconsistent 3.75/1.33. Like I said, he’s not one that is easy to peg, but as he’s not being used as an SP2, he’s easily worth 7 rounds in the SP-starved market that was prior to the open trading period.

            
S. NAPALM receives:
Matt Garza Mil - P
Stephen Piscotty StL - OF NA
Round 13

ANGRY receives:
Jay Bruce Cle - 1B,OF
Round 21

Kyle takes the next bite off the Napalm corpse, but gives up an awful low for a guy with notorious cold streaks, potential for sub.290 OBP, and who had slowed down a bit since his hot start. But the trade to CLE was a big boost to the counting stats and gives him even greater potential as a bigtime thumper going forward. He’s on pace for 96/42/113/1/.330 if he can keep it up. It’s hard to imagine those numbers not being worthy of keeping, but Bruce isn’t young and the areas he contributes are the same areas that many have excelled at. I think he probably could’ve gone for a little less due to past issues, but there is no argument as to whether he has been worth the price.  On a sidenote, what a slide for Piscotty, who went from 6th overall pick this year to a castoff throw-in.

            
MONTEZUMAS receives:
Roberto Osuna Tor - P
Jimmy Nelson Mil - P
Round 23
Round 24

S. NAPALM receives:
Dinelson Lamet SD - P
Matt Bush Tex - P
Round 14 (traded from Anal Hershiser)
Round 16


Gibby calls it a season despite sitting in sixth place. While it’s a difficult call, it sure makes for a more interesting runup to the trade deadline. Jimmy has had a dominant, unJimmy-like season. The only reason he’s available is this is not the Jimmy we’ve seen before. Jimmy likes to give up homers and routinely get lit up by Padres then dominate a Cubs lineup. Jimmy is different this year. Jimmy adjusted his repertoire and built confidence in his secondary stuff. Jimmy is on pace for 225 Ks and a 3.72/1.26. Jimmy looks like an ace. Given the lackluster pre-open trading market at the moment, Adam was happy to add Jimmy and call the vultures over to pick away at the ample corpse Gibby represented. With the top closer at the moment, 17 rounds seemed like a fair price to pay, but there is potential  keeper appeal that has solidified since the trade and could make this a big win for Adam.

No comments:

Post a Comment