COWHIDE
receives:
Parker
Bridwell LAA - P
A.J.
Griffin Tex - P
MOOSE
receives:
Johnny
Cueto SF - P DL
Interesting.
Not sure I wouldn’t prefer just DLing Cueto and sending Brian a few rounds for
Bridwell, whose 3/3 in QS since being acquired. But Griffin is crap who
occasionally gets away with disguising his mediocre offspeed repertoire for
actual stuff. Even Bridwell is playing over his head, with a 4.83 xFIP and
lucky .265 BABIP. The 5.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 don’t instill much confidence. I
realize Cueto hasn’t been great and is currently injured, but I don’t see the logic here.
LOC
receives:
Steven
Souza Jr. TB - OF
Round 17
Round 18
S.
NAPALM receives:
Ariel
Miranda Sea - P
Round 9
Round 16
Considering
the Padres got Wil Myers and the Nats got Trea Turner and Joe Ross in that
December 2014 deal, there’s a lot of pressure of Souza to be much more valuable
than the injury-prone occasional contributor he had become prior to the 2017
season. For at least the 2017 season,
the Rays look like the smart team in this trade as Souza is on pace to produce
a 84/34/92/15/.356 year in his age 28 season.
This is huge, across-the-board production and would absolutely make him
a keeper for 2018. That makes him well worth 10 rounds and probably five
more. But he must finish the season
strong or he’s of no use to LOC in 2017 or 2018. If he stalls at his current
numbers, the keeper outlook gets a lot more shady. At this point though, this
was a quality addition to Chad’s squad, which needed a bit more speed and
patience.
LOC
receives:
Danny
Salazar Cle - P
MONTEZUMAS
receives:
Robinson
Canó Sea - 2B
This has
to be the most intriguing dare trade of the season. Two contenders with
differing needs do a straight up swap for two very different players. Cano is a 34-year-old established star who
has been kept every season for roughly the past decade. He’s on pace for 80/23/96/1/.331
and has struggled since the trade (still waiting his first HR in 19 games), but
is likely to pick up the pace going forward and remain a keeper in 2018.
Salazar, meanwhile, had an inconsistent start to the season as Montezuma’s top
pick, striking out everybody but proving prone to fits of wildness and
occasional blowups. Eventually he got demoted, injured, returned, then dominated
the minors, and kept on rolling. He was electric in his five starts from July
22 – Aug 15, striking out 46 in 32 IP and letting up just 5 ER and 18 hits.
Then came a 12-hit 6 ER game and a DL stint with a sore elbow, where he is
currently residing. Initial returns were
looking mightily in favor of Chad, but Cano’s consistency could eventually win
out. If Salazar is health though, there are few others who can sport that kind
of stuff.
KOG
receives:
Dinelson
Lamet SD - P
Yoán
Moncada CWS - 2B,3B
Round 19
ONE NUT
receives:
Ivan
Nova Pit - P
Yoenis
Céspedes NYM - OF
Round 11
This is
the screwiest inadvertently potentially fair trade I have seen in this league.
First, let’s establish Moncada’s value. Moncada is an odd mixture of Byron
Buxton and Miguel Sano and not necessarily in a good way. The flaws are many at
this point, as he has Kd nearly 40% of his 142 big league plate appearances and
walked in a lovely 14% of them. Then 8% have been singles and 8% have been
extrabase hits. And despite his incredible speed (111 sbs in 134 attempts in
the minors), he’s 0 for 2 in the bigs. He will be 23 next May, but I expect him
to still be in the minors. You don’t keep players in the minors, even if people
threaten to keep them, they never do. Even as early picks, minor leaguers are
risks – just ask Mr. Risk (Jason’s first four picks were Dahl, Price, Moncada,
and Urias). A lot could change in the last month and he very well could stick
in the bigs and even be productive. But that’s a big leap to give up what was
essentially 20 rounds of players and picks (Cespedes =9, Nova =3, 19th-11th
= 8). If I wanted to take the leap, I would’ve given up five for Moncada.
The
screwy part of all this is Cespedes is out for the season and essentially an immovable
dead spot, consuming the DL position unless Jason wants to drop him. I’m
guessing that won’t happen since Cespedes will probably still be a keeper.
Nova, meanwhile, has been in a downward spiral since before he was traded. In
three starts since joining the Nuts, he’s delivered 16 K and a 7.42/1.82 and no
QS in three starts. He could cut bait with Nova, but then he essentially
eliminates his ability to gain any value out of this trade.
I liked
most of what Dan did during his fire sale, but really hated this trade from a
strategy standpoint. That said, the
negative value of Nova and Yoenis going forward will lessen the 8 round return
Jason received and essentially make this an even deal. Go figure.
MONTEZUMAS
receives:
Ian
Desmond Col - 1B,OF DL
Aroldis
Chapman NYY - P
Round 19
Round 20
KOG
receives:
Joc
Pederson LAD - OF
Jonathan
Villar Mil - 2B,3B,SS
Round 16
Round 18
What’s
worse, dealing two keepers as throw-ins or refusing to give up hope until
mid-August despite lots of data suggesting otherwise? I had such hope for Joc,
but he’s never been the fulltime player the organization said they’d let him
be. Villar was one of the most valuable players in our league last year given
his onbase skills and position eligibility, but this year not so much. I
digress.
Five
rounds isn’t much for someone who is supposed to be the best closer in the
game. He certainly has not been since the trade occurred though and Desmond has
sat on the DL until this week. There is still potential to see a big return on those
five rounds. The potential of a strong final month for Desmond and SS
eligibility could ultimately make this a huge lopsided win for Montezumas, but
that’s a longshot. If Desmond contributes and Chapman recovers, it should be a
fair swap.
KOG
receives:
Ryon
Healy Oak - 1B,3B
Aaron
Hicks NYY - OF
David
Robertson NYY - P
Ricky
Nolasco LAA - P
Round 7
Round 9
COWHIDE
receives:
Justin
Turner LAD - 3B
Dellin
Betances NYY - P
Taijuan
Walker Ari - P
Round 21
Round 22
As much
as I like Turner, this one is a bit lopsided in my mind. Dave gave up 27 rounds
and both restricted picks to get what will likely amount to be no keepers in
return. The centerpiece is Turner, who is 32, and –largely due to injuries—is on
pace for 74/21/72/7/.419. At the time of the trade, his OBP was up past .450 I
believe, which is huge value, but it was also not sustainable. His production since joining LAD in 2014 equates
to a full season line of 79/22/83/7/.361, which is damn good, but something
short of a surefire keeper. Walker has
had a fine season, but isn’t a keeper either, more of an SP4-type. Betances is
a very good RP, but there were a lot of those available. All this just limits
the potential trade currency Dave will be able to recover. All told, I think
Dave overshot by about 10 rounds, making it a big win for Dan.
MONTEZUMAS
receives:
Dee
Gordon Mia - 2B
Zack
Greinke Ari - P
Round 18
Round 19
S.
NAPALM receives:
Ian Happ
ChC - 2B,OF
José
Berríos Min - P
Round 7
Round 12
Another
big trade to start the open trading period. Considering only two first rounders
were dealt last year, people came out ready to deal this year. Gibby gets the
same picks that Dan received in the first blockbuster, but the pick
differential was 10 rounds less and he gave up less players. While Gordon and
Grienke are two surefire keepers for next year, Berrios and Happ will certainly
warrant consideration themselves. After dominating AAA and big leaguers for the
first three months of the season, Berrios has lost some of his consistency and is
currently projected to finish with a 4.00/1.15 with 135 K in 145 IP. As a 23
year-old with as much pedigree as any other young SP, these are the types of
seasons that often come before a dominant career. David Price’s 2009 age 23
season is a good example (4.42/1.35, 102 K in 128 IP). The numbers will require
a bit of a leap of faith to keep, but the stuff is nasty and the control is on
point – another key indicator. Meanwhile, predictably given the Cubs rotation
of position playets, Happ hasn’t received the consistent playing time that he
did when he was called up due to injuries. But he has stuck and will likely
take over a fulltime role next year. When you consider his 162-game average of
82/35/88/13/.323 and factor in that he just turned 23 a couple weeks ago, it’s
easy to project an even bigger breakout in 2018.
Montezumas
gets the SP2 its needed all season and one of the few players that can dominate
the SB category by themelves as the playoffs approach. However, if Montezumas
fails to make the playoffs and ends up in 9th, that could give Gibby
the first pick in the draft nex t season. Big risk, but Grienke and Gordon are
the types of difference makers that can flip a series easily.
DONKEY
receives:
Wade
Davis ChC - P
Daniel
Murphy Was - 1B,2B
Chris
Taylor LAD - 2B,3B,SS,OF
Gerrit
Cole Pit - P
Round 23
Round 24
KOG
receives:
Elvis
Andrus Tex - SS
Seung
Hwan Oh StL - P
Ian
Desmond Col - 1B,OF DL
Kyle
Seager Sea - 3B
Round 7
Round 12
Chris
Shannon has his eyes squarely on the prize and casts off some big names and 28
rounds, including his first rounder, for a big haul. Cole was a big get. His
overall numbers aren’t overly impressive this season with a 3.99 ERA and only
decent K rates, but he’s been a QS machine with 19 – good enough for fourth in
the league. The ERA and QS implies a level of consistency that has been hard to
come by this year. Daniel Murphy is also having another excellent year,
contributing consistently to four categories from a key position. And Wade Davis
is a big upgrade as the closer for one of the best teams.
It
surprised me to see Chris supplant Andrus with Taylor since Andrus is having easily
his best season yet and will be a keeper if his projected line of
100/19/83/28/338 holds true. It’s hard to argue with Taylor’s production
though. He’s posted 18/5/14/3/.368 in 23 games for Chris and has ridiculous
eligibility. Still not sure how he’s doing it considering his lack of pedigree
and role player status for so long, but he too will warrant some keeper
consideration if he keeps it up.
One of
the keys to return for Dan is the return he received for Desmond, Oh, and
Andrus, which amounted to another 9 rounds or so. Add in Seager’s stability as
a keeper up until this season, and you’ve got a great return and a worthy
blockbuster that kicked off the open trading period and should prove useful for
both sides.
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