Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Trade Reviews Part II



Ring of Fire receives:
Drew Pomeranz Bos - P
Round 20

Stroman receives:
Tyler Thornburg Mil - P
Round 14

It’s a little unusual for a team on the cusp of the playoffs to deal what has been one of the most effective FAs all season, even if DPom comes with substantial risk playing in BOS vs OAK and quickly approaching a career high in IPs. But, it’s also how Jeff has played it all season – playing for the future, while trying to compete today. One has to wonder if he kept his focus on this season, what the results would be. That said, six rounds is a significant sum when you consider the risk and the moved from 20th round to 14th. Some of the best teams have been able to deal for picks while competing, so perhaps this is an example of that.

Coming in rather late to the game, Dagan’s late push had few intriguing options, so the upside was worthwhile here considering the needs his roster has and status as a playoff team. Through Aug 24th, Pom has 150/2.95/1.14/14 in 140 IP, which is excellent. He has also pitched very well over the past month, so this could end up being a steal for Dagan … or it could be a big waste of picks.

Giving this one to Jeff given the amount of pick upgrade for now, but this could come back to bite him.

Brokeback receives:
Josh Reddick LAD - OF
Round 17

Moose receives:
Yordano Ventura KC - P
Round 19

While the pick exchange may be minimal, this could be a very interesting trade that could prove fruitful for Moose, who is in the thick of the playoff hunt. Through mid August, Ventura had a 2.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 5 QS and 34 K in the past month, which is among the best in the league. Sure, his season-long stats still look crappy, but it wouldn’t be beyond YV to suddenly turn it around late in the season and show off some of the ample talent his has – like he did in 2015. For two rounds that are relatively meaningless in terms of talent differential, this is a huge win from Brian.

Donkey receives:
Brock Holt Bos - 1B,2B,3B,SS,OF DTD
Corey Dickerson TB - OF
R.A. Dickey Tor - P
Round 12
Round 14
Round 15

Keepin recieves:
Carlos Santana Cle - 1B
Chris Tillman Bal - P
Fernando Rodney Mia - P
Round 16
Round 17
Round 18

With the players and all the picks involved, it would seem like a much bigger trade than it actually is. In truth, there were more than 10 rounds being exchanged here but a lot of talent heading to Pierce’s squad. That includes a player in Carlos Santana who is on pace for a very keepable 86/35/84/6/.340 season. Tillman has been a very solid as well, with 15 QS even and a solid yet unspectacular ERA, WHIP, and K rate. Rodney has been a decent RP this season, though he hasn’t quite replicated the success in MIA that he had in SD, and Ramos is not expected to be injured long.

That said, Shannon was under the gone and looking to complete a successful rebuild. He now has no picks after the 16th round, an extra first rounder, and an intriguing keeper group of Kershaw, Hosmer, Baez, Upton, Seager, and Brantley, though I suspect that might change before the draft takes place. I would’ve thought Shannon could’ve gotten much more for Santana and frankly I’d rather have Santana as a keeper, but he is just a 1B now so the numbers aren’t as great as if they were coming from a catcher.

Giving the win to Pierce here for finding value late, though Chris gets a nod for a successful open trading period.

Stroman receives:
Adrián Béltre Tex - 3B
Adrián González LAD - 1B
Adam Ottavino Col - P

Donkey receives:
Eric Hosmer KC - 1B
Reynaldo López Was - P
Taijuan Walker Sea - P

With Walker and Lopez eventually jettisoned and Ottavino more or less a wire-like add, we have to look at whether we’d have Beltre/AGon or Hosmer. Next season, Hos will be at the age 27 season and has posted a pace of 79/22/95/6/.333. That’s not a great keeper, but it’s not a bad one either. He certainly has potential to do more with another step forward. I was burned by Hos enough that I have a healthy dose of skepticism, and would find it hard to recommend him as a keeper if he doesn’t end up breaking 20 HR and 90 RBI given the mediocre OBP.

Beltre may be the best, as bares out his pace of 79/27/101/0/.343, but he will also be 38 next season – not exactly a spring chicken. And even with the recent hot streak, AGon may have seen his last season as a keeper breeze by in an unproductive flash. At 34, his Hosmerish pace of 73/19/94/0/.368 just doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy about future production. Now, a late surge could change this, but this is likely the beginning of the end that could very well be an expensive James Loney at 1B in a couple years.

With all that in mind, I don’t like Hosmer enough as a keeper to think Shannon couldn’t have done better by dealing these two big names for a decent pick upgrade. I give the win to Jeff, who gets a nice boost for the present season and a good fringe (albeit old) keeper in Beltre, with the understanding that time was dwindling for Shannong to move these guys.

Donkey receives:
Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS
Justin Upton Det - OF
Brad Brach Bal - P
Héctor Santiago Min - P
Round 11

S. Napalm receives:
Neil Walker NYM - 2B
Keon Broxton Mil - OF
Raisel Iglesias Cin - P
Dallas Keuchel Hou - P
Round 19

I’ve always been a pretty big proponent of Walker as a great mid-round pick at the keystone and that has remained true this season with 22 HR to go with a decent OBP. I also think Keuchel has been pretty unlucky this season and stands to finish better, while I appreciate Broxton’s wheels and Iglesias’ overall talent. But Gibby loses this one big in my mind.

The eight round leap from the 19th to 11th is pretty substantial and I would much rather hold out hope on Upton than roster Broxton when you have zero need for SBs. If we stopped there, I would’ve thought this was a fair exchange, but that was not the case. No, Gibby lost a player that could give him nightmares for years to come.
There’s been not shortage of criticism when it comes to Javier Baez’s plate discipline and lack of clear position, but everyone has been enamored with the power. He has wheels too and at the age of 24, his 600-AB pace is 71/24/88/21/.320. In that lineup, with that much room to grow and the upside involved, I would be very happy with him as a keeper. Even with a mediocre walk rate, he could reach elite status as early as next season.  The pedigree is ample and Shannon got that upside, a great pick upgade, and easy-to-see bounceback story in Upton in exchange for no one he was going to keep. BIG win for Chris.

Keepin receives:
Kendrys Morales KC - 1B,OF
Gio González Was - P
Round 19

Thors receiveS:
Ben Revere Was - OF
Mike Leake StL - P
Round 15

This is pretty straight forward. No keepers involved, but a couple decent upgrades for Pierce in exchange for a decent four round return for Shomphe. However, I give Chris extra credit here for recycling two cast-asides he received in previous trades and turning them to a pick upgrade. Nice work.

Thor receives:
Kendrys Morales KC - 1B,OF
Jorge De La Rosa Col - P
Round 14

Moose recieves:
Khris Davis Oak - OF
Ian Kennedy KC - P
Round 20

While Shomphe deserved more in terms of Actual Standings this season, he did a good job trading off the depth that made his team such a Real Rankings darling this year. Going from the 20th to the 14th is a nice jump for two players who don’t leap of the page as keeper worthy.

That said, it’s also a nice deal for Moose as it stabilizes a couple weak spots. Both Kennedy and Khrush come with wrinkles of inconsistency and rate issues, but Davis is on pace for a 85/42/106/1/.298 season. That OBP is a serious hindrance, but it’s something you can look past and wait for the hot streaks. Its also worth noting that Kennedy is on pace for 189 Ks and a 3.58 ERA to go with a 1.15 WHIP. If he can pick up the pace in the K category and surpass 200, that could be a big boost toward keeper value.

I think it’s a fair exchange given what the market will bear for this season, but I give Moose a big win here for picking up potential fringe keepers if their pace can be maintained or improved over the next month and a half.

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