Cowhide
Joyride receives:
Michael
Wacha StL - P
Matt
Kemp Atl - OF
Angry
Pirates receives:
Andrew
Benintendi Bos - OF
This
is an interesting trade in that all the names are worth a lot more than their
production this year. Wacha is overrated as a fantasy asset due to his lack of
strikeouts and overall hitability.
His
106/4.35/1.40/13 line this season is mediocre even for a middle of the rotation
type, much less a keeper. But Dave has owned Wacha during some of his best
times, so I’m sure there’s a level of comfort in that. Meanwhile, Kemp had a
fine last season and is doing even better this season as he’s on pace for 83 R,
34 HR, and 103 RBI. The only problem here is his OBP is not only not helpful,
it’s a detriment at .283 and he’s stopped stealing all together (no attempts
this season). So, that’s something to keep in mind.
That
said, for a team competing for a championship, there can be no wasted spots.
Benintendi looks to at best be part of a platoon and the likelihood that he
struggles is not something Dave can risk, no matter how much he likes him. I
don’t think Benintendi turns into a keeper, but he has a few months and he’s
flourished at each stop. That said, the jump from AA to the bigs is huge. No
real loss by Kyle. I doubt people were knocking down his door for Wacha or
Kemp, but I know he was hoping to get more when he first called it quits.
Both
get value, but I think Dave edges out Kyle in terms of likelihood to
contribute.
-----------------
Urban
Achievers receives:
Shawn
Kelley Was - P
Round
14
One
Nut receives:
Jeurys
Familia NYM - P
Round
20
Not
much to say here other than it made a lot of sense for Jason to upgrade the RP
position with one of the best in the league, though 6 rounds is a lot with S+H
as a category vs. S. Still, it wasn’t a top pick so no complaints here. Fair
deal.
-----------------
Thor’s
receives:
Nomar
Mazara Tex - OF
Trevor
Story Col - SS DL
Round
20
Montezumas
receives:
Miguel
Cabrera Det - 1B
David
Price Bos - P
Round
12
If
you focus on the names involved, it appears that one team not only gave up
better players, they gave up a decent pick upgrade as well. But focusing on
names is a dangerous exercise when dealing for production beyond the current
season. Any hitter over the age of 30 and any pitcher over the age of 28 is a
depreciating asset – if that is not reflected in performance, it should be
reflected in perceived value. Miggy and Price are both depreciating assets
while Story and Mazara are both going in the opposite direction.
If
you take Miggy’s production over the past three seasons (including the
impressive performance this season), you get a 150-game average of
88/26/98/1/.397. That’s pretty darn good, but it’s also a line replicated by
Kendrys Morales last year (158 games, 81/22/106/0/.362). This isn’t the Miggy
of your college years (yes, he’s been around that long). He’ll be 34 when the
season starts next year. Meanwhile, Price has been up and down all season and
currently sports a 4.34 ERA. He clearly still has some nasty stuff as his K
rate is still elite and good enough for 7th in the majors, but he
will be 31 in two weeks. There’s a long documented history of SPs falling off
around that age, so this could very well be the beginning of the end.
That’s
not to say they aren’t going to contribute a lot, Im counting on it actually.
That’s why I was willing to trade 21 and 23 year-olds who have proven they
belong in the majors and look to be elite fantasy contributors in the future.
Story was on pace for a 100/41/110/12/.340 season, which is incredible for anyone
– nevermind a rookie. His torrid pace in the first week of the season hit a
brief lull for a couple weeks before he adapted and kept crushing, both home
and away. In fact, the injury that ended his season came just as he was
completing an 8-game stretch that was even more productive than the
record-breaking start to the season.
The
future value is clear. If someone traded 35-year old Jim Thome in the midst of
his 108/42/109/0/.416 season in 2006 for another young Colorado SS, you
would’ve thought they were an idiot at the time. But Thome went on to be a decent
keeper for two more seasons, while Tulo has been a top keeper for the better
part of a decade. Now consider that Story was putting up better number than
Tulo ever has. Crazy.
Mazara
was called up a couple weeks before his 21st birthday and has
continued to prove he belongs, hitting .282 with 13 HR in 376 ABs. He already
is highly ranked on updated dynasty rankings and will be a top ranked keeper
league hitter going into next season.
There’s
no doubt I will benefit more from this trade in 2016, but I will gladly swap
back if Chris wants to before the 2017. I would even add another 10 rounds
because there’s no way I make this deal looking beyond the current season.
-----------------
Donkey
receives:
Steven
Wright Bos - P
Bud
Norris LAD - P DL
Kendall
Graveman Oak - P
Clayton
Kershaw LAD - P DL
Round
7
Round
12
Sexual
Napalm receives:
Stephen
Strasburg Was - P
Jimmy
Nelson Mil - P
Danny
Duffy KC - P
Round
21
Round
22
This
trade makes so much sense I emailed both owners to congratulate them. Kershaw
is essentially an untouchable asset when he’s healthy, but he’s not. Mike
picked up a pretty damn good consolation prize in Strasburg, while adding two
decent starters – one of whom is playing his way into discussion as a high-end
asset beyond this season. I held out as a Danny Duffy supporter for a long time
due to his past control issues (career BB/9 is 3.45!), but he has righted the ship
and then some this season with a 10.30 K/9 and 1.95 BB/9. Some of his 28.8 K%
and 5.5 BB% is bullpen innings, but he’s been a borderline ace as a starter and
his 14.1 SwStr% is elite and no longer a SSS. Nelson I like much less, but the
numbers are there to justify him as a good backend guy. The only problem is the
occasional blowups, which can get messy.
The
only issue I have with Gibby’s departures is Wright. I realize he’s regressed,
but I don’t see Nelson as much of an improvement. I think I would’ve waited
until I got closer to the deadline to deal for a replacement, or gone after
some of Shannon’s more appealing pieces.
Either
way I call this one even steven. Strasburg is still a great keeper SP and gives
Gibby an elite rotation to compete against the other top teams, while Shannon
bringing home Kershaw and a first rounder is no doubt a huge step toward a big
2017 season.
-----------------
Anal
receives:
Nolan
Arenado Col - 3B
Yu
Darvish Tex - P
Jackie
Bradley Jr. Bos - OF
Carlos
Estévez Col - P
Logan
Forsythe TB - 1B,2B
Kyle
Gibson Min - P
Round
9
One
Nut receives:
Josh
Donaldson Tor - 3B
Jason
Kipnis Cle - 2B
Nelson
Cruz Sea - OF
Chris
Archer TB - P
Adam
Wainwright StL - P
Kenley
Jansen LAD - P
Round
14
The
trade to end all trades. One of the biggest game changers in the history of
High & Tight with some huge names being dealt.
Trades
like these are hard to break down, but we can do so piece by piece. First we
can just remove Forsythe, Estevez and Gibson from the equation. Lets look at
Arenado for Donaldson. Two key differences here are age and categorical
contribution. Before next season, Donaldson will be 31 and Arenado will be 26.
Those are meaningful years to give up for Jason. Both have been amazing this
year, ranked #2 (Donaldson) and #8 (Arenado). One key difference, however, can
be seen in their career walk rates: 10.8% for Donaldson and 6.0% for Arenado.
That’s pretty significant and you can see it in the 50-point difference in
their OBPs. Neither steal much, but Donaldson’s 20 vs. Arenado’s 6 over the
past three seasons is noteworthy. Arenado will most assuredly have more top
seasons ahead, even if Donaldson’s are better the next 2-3 years. There aren’t
many people have put together a line like Donaldson’s 122/41/123/6/.371 season in
2015 and I doubt Donaldson ever reaches that level again, but I’m also certain
Arenado never gets there. I see it as a wash, but with the age difference, we
will give Anal a slight edge. Believe me, it doesn’t make a difference by the
time we get to the end of this exercise.
For
all of the fanfare, Yu has really only had one elite season. The 2013 season of
2.81/1.07 with 277 Ks is truly something wondrous. He got injured at the end of
2014, missed last season, and has logged only 38 innings this season through
Aug 8th. Next season he turns 30. He’s already had a couple setbacks
this season and whiIe I believe we’ll see some great production in 2017 – not
2013 great, but top 15 starter great -- I certainly don’t feel confident with
him leading my staff. The interesting thing about this trade is Chris Archer is
very much like a younger Yu. His breakout season also came at age 26 and the
numbers are actually pretty darn close at 2.90/1.14 and 252 Ks. His rates have
taken a hit this season, namely because he’s been letting up 0.4 more HR/9 this
season than his career. His xFIP in 2016 is 3.45, which is worse than his 3.01
in 2015, but a lot better than his 4.27 ERA. Given health and age, it’s very
clear to me that Archer is a better option heading into 2017.
Let’s
just take a quick look at JBJ because it’s hard to make a clear judgment based
on production this season (on pace for 95/25/95/10/.370). The thing is, he’s
not a spring chicken. He was a college senior when he was drafted out of
Stanford and while he was a first rounder, he was more of a solid on-base, good
defender, low risk good hitter type. He’s had 1,222 plate appearances from ages
23-26, so I think it’s not out of line to consider his 162 game average vs.
that shiny projection: 81/15/68/9/.318.
Yawn. What if we split the difference? That’s 88/20/82/10/.344. Is that keeper?
At 27, maybe. It’s not clear cut. The question is how much faith you have. One
thing is clear though – a 36 year old Nelson Cruz will be a much better keeper
for 2017. Since moving from the OF to full-time DH, we’ve been able to see what
a healthy Nelson Cruz looks like. Since 2014 -- so his age 33-35 seasons -- his
150-game average is 86/40/97/3/.354. No injury issues, just a bunch of
consistent power and a very solid on-base clip. You’ve got to think beyond next
season when considering this comparison because there will soon be wear and
tear (or a HGH suspension) that will make him less appealing. But given Bradley’s
fringiness and lack of upside pedigree, I still like Cruz better than JBJ as a
keeper.
OK. To
recap: we’re giving a slight edge to Anal for Arenado vs. Donaldson (based on
age), One Nut gets edge on Archer vs. Yu (based on age, health, production), One
Nut gets clear win with Cruz vs. JBJ (based on clear keeperness). So already
we’ve got a win for Jason. Let’s play along and say the modest five round
exchange makes up for this difference. It doesn’t really, but, again, it won’t
make a difference.
We
still got a lot of value going to One Nut consider, most prominently, Jason
Kipnis, a 29-year old second basemen, who is on pace for 96/27/97/11/.343.
That’s not a small throw in. What’s that
worth on the open market straight up? If you consider a 8th for a 24th
a pretty standard type of deal this season, let’s call it a very conservative
16 round estimate… lost.
Adam
Wainright, warts, age, and mediocre 112/4.34/1.32/14 season aside, is worth a
lot on the open market this time of year because he has a big name, especially
with decent past 30 days numbers. I’m sure he could get 10 rounds.
Kenley?
Well, that’s easy. Jason just forked over 6 rounds for Familia. Kenley gets 8
easy.
I
realize this exercise makes a lot of assumptions but it’s a worthwhile analysis
if we’re going to try to determine exchange of values. In conclusion, it’s not
that Anal didn’t receive a nice return. Arenado is a gem, indeed. The key here
is the missed opportunity to capitalize on available assets. I see at least 34
rounds of value lost, so that’s why I see this as a clear win for Jason.
-----------------
Angry
Pirates receives:
Mike
Foltynewicz Atl - P
Patrick
Corbin Ari - P
Round
12
One
Nut receives:
Addison
Reed NYM - P
Seung
Hwan Oh StL - P
Round
15
Ho
hum. Couple of good RPs for a few rounds. Reed has actually been elite lately.
Still. nothing to see here. Fair swap.
-----------------
Angry
Pirates receives:
Trea
Turner Was - 2B
Seung
Hwan Oh StL - P
Tyler
Chatwood Col - P
Round
13
S.
Napalm receives:
Rajai
Davis Cle - OF
Héctor
Santiago LAA - P
Kendall
Graveman Oak - P
Round
15
This
one was a little confusing but I understand why Gibby would want to make some
cheap upgrades. Two rounds is nothing to give up, so you have to consider the
return. Rajai is having a great season, while Santiago and Graveman have had
theis ups and downs. The issue here was Turner wasn’t getting a shot and Gibby
already paid dearly for Urias early in the season, and with only one NA slot,
it was a tough call. The thing is, Chatwood has been pretty darn good – similar
to the other pitchers in the deal, and Oh became the closer on a good STL team.
This is one of those deals I feel bad making a call on so long after the fact,
but Turner has been really good and looks like he could play his way into
keeper conversation next year. Meanwhile, Rajai got ice cold and Graveman was
jettisoned as an afterthought in the Kershaw/Strasburg blockbuster. Kyle got
another couple rounds for Oh a few weeks later, while Turner is emerging as a
potential star. This is a huge under-the-radar deal and a big win for the
disgruntled seamen.
-------------
Angry
Pirates receives:
Round
13
Montezumas
receives:
Brandon
Moss StL - 1B,OF DL
Round
16
Not
much to say about this one as it obviously was a reaction to my loss of Abreu
in the Scherzer deal. Unfortunately, Moss went on the DL within hours of the
trade’s execution and he remained there for almost a month before I started to
realize value. I didn’t give up much, but as of now Kyle clearly has the upper
hand even if he was essentially useless to him.
-------------
Keeping
it Real receives:
José
Abreu CWS - 1B
Mike
Leake StL - P
Round
15
Montezumas
receives:
Max
Scherzer Was - P
Round
13
This
one was executed a month ago and I imagine it wouldn’t be executed now. The
results looks worse now than it did when the trade occurred, though obviously
there was plenty of disdain when it was executed. Abreu continues to hit at a
decent clip, but for some reason the power has escaped him. His HR on Aug. 3
was his first in 32 games. Astounding when you consider his relative youth and
two years of 30+ HR and 100+ RBI – a feat only accomplished by two others: Jose
Bautista and David Ortiz. There’s still time for him to recover and produce a
fine season as his hot streaks get insanely hot. He’s walking at the same rate
as last year, but his BABIP is 25 points below his career average, suggesting a
lack of luck. He has had foot injuries in the past that he did his best to play
through, so that could also be an explanation.
Scherzer,
meanwhile, has recovered from his poor start to the year and put up a hot
streak like no other pitcher in the league now that Kershaw is laid up. No ifs
ands or buts about it, Scherzer is significantly outperforming Abreu.
Keeper-wise,
I believe this is ultimately an even swap. While Abreu’s season thus far has
appeared to be an outlier, he’s 29 and while that is past the prime years, he
clearly still has plenty of quality years ahead. Scherzer, meanwhile, is 32 and
there is a long history of pitchers declining sharply after the age of 30. There’s
also the consideration that hitters are more valuable as keepers, as evidenced
by their making up 65-75% of keepers on an annual basis. That said, going into next season Scherzer
will be ranked as a top 15-20 pick and Abreu will be buried in the 30-40 range
depending on how the rest of the season goes. So clearly I’m the winner here
and it looks like it may end the season as a landslide.
UPDATE: Wrote this a few days ago, but it’s worth
noting that Abreu went 9/18 with three HR in his four games from Aug 3-7. It’ll
be interesting to see how he ends the season.
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