Real Rankings - Week 5

Five weeks in and we're 24% of the way through the season. What do you think of your team at this point? This is where perception starts to become reality. Those guys who started the season struggling just haven't stopped. Do you cut them and risk them turning into Alex Rios last yar? What about the guys who are doing well? Sell high? You could prove to be brilliant and be selling a guy like Trumbo last year at just the right time, or you could be giving away Mike Trout. Decisions, decisions.

The beginning of May tends to be where we see the first trade action starting. Just a reminder, you cannot deal for any picks in rounds 7-13 until August. Pretty sure no one is giving up at this point, but just a reminder of the new rule.

Editorial comment based on recent trade offers: an initial offer is a starting point. Counter and aim high. Perhaps you'll meet in the middle. Perhaps not. Its always OK to say its a nonstarter, but some feedback is helpful.

Also, its been five weeks. Its time to forget where you drafted them and deal based on who they are. That's not to say someone like Jurickson Profar doesn't have value or that your conviction in any young player is worthless, but just because, say, Ryan Vogelsong was drafted a lot earlier than Patrick Corbin -- that really has no bearing on value at this point.

With five weeks under our belt, its reasonable to draw some conclusions based on available data. A few comments regarding the Real Rankings:

- Nice bounceback by Casten this week according to the Real Rankings, but he only garnered six wins and still remains at the bottom of both the rankings and standings, though Lars and Dave are also low in both real and actual standings. Two members of this threesome could have been predicted given Dave and Brandon's pitiful draft status, but certainly I would've never thought Lars and his three first rounders would be this low.

- Meanwhile, the top team in the standings, Pierce, is one of the few top teams who have proven they should be where they are in the standings. His roster is full of nice surprises, productive starters, and steals from the draft. He's benefited from Ortiz coming back on fire and stands to benefit upon Corey Hart's eventual emergence, and perhaps even uber prospect Oscar Tavarez. He and Russ would be duking it out for first and second on my power rankings if I had them.

- The most unlucky to this point can be seen by looking in the DIF column in the overall rankings, as it shows the difference between the Real Rankings and Actual Standings. Russ' team is barely clinging to a playoff spot in actuality, but he has clearly been the most balanced and consistent team so far this year. Brian and Kyle also find themselves buried in the standings, but overall in pretty good shape, albeit unlucky. Meanwhile, I am out of the playoffs according to the standings, but among the tops in the Real Rankings.

- Conversely, it seems Gibby and Chris are pretty fortunate to be in the top 3 in the standings. And Casten and Jason are lucky to not be further down than where they are, but no one has gotten more lucky than Dan, whose best week was a 6.7 average ranking (Russ' worst week is 6.8), but manages to sit eight spots higher in the actual standings than the rankings.

- The most inconsistent teams have been me (5.0 variability) with a range of 3.5 to 10.2, Chris (4.9), and Casten, (4.0). Dan has been most consistent (0.3), ranging between 6.7 and 8.2.

- Not sure the line chart is helping you conclude much. I would recommend finding your color and going from there. You can see general trajectory in terms of performance week-to-week. An interesting observation is that of the black (Russ) and pink (Brandon) lines, with Russ peaking at week 2 and dropping since while Brandon plummeted to the lowest of any team in week 2 and has shot upward since. Something to monitor perhaps.