Trade Review - One Nut and Urban

One Nut receives:

SP Matt Moore TB

23^rd rounder

Urban receives:

SP Jered Weaver LAA

RP Casey Janssen TOR

19^th rounder

Tough one to call, but it’s pretty even when you consider Weaver’s injury and diminishing returns the past couple seasons (though, still good enough for the top tier). Weaver struck out 233 is 2010, 198 in 2011, 142 in 2012 (three less starts), and had a lousy 4.9 K/9 so far this season (albeit, 11 innings). So something is off there, but he’s also poste stellar era/whips of 2.41/1.01 and 2.81/1.02 the past two seasons and that is valuable. His recent injury isn’t a major concern as it was a fractured bone in his non-throwing arm and not structural. Janssen meanwhile has been steady and quite good, with 10 saves, 9.0 K/9, and a 2.40/0.67. No immediate threats in the bullpen and a mandate to win makes him a likely contributor for the rest of the year.

Moore has been spectacular and better than advertised, which is saying a lot considering the hype surrounding him and very good first full year 8.9 K/9, 3.81/1.35 (although 14 QS in 31 games is quite bad) compared to most. His numbers this year appear to show maturity, with consistent strikeout rates but a 2.21/1.10 with 7 QS in 10 starts. However, Moore’s numbers are somewhat a mirage and reflective of a whole lotta luck. His BABIP is .196 with an xFIP of 4.23.  His walk rate, meanwhile hasn’t changed from last year and is still pretty high at 4.1 BB/9. There will be regression here, undoubtedly, and given his control problems last year, they could be difficult to deal with at times.

I still think Weaver is great, but he falls something short of the elite tier status while Moore could soon be joining the levels of the elite as soon as this season. That said, Moore isn’t there yet and that WHIP will climb. Weaver, though he won’t K as much as he used to, is likely to be more consistent week to week, accumulate more QS, and boast excellent control (2.4 BB/9 career). Meanwhile, Janssen could very well end up a top 10 closer. So, for this year, I like the move for Kyle. That said, at 30, Weaver’s best years are behind him and Moore’s, at the age of 23, are ahead of him and could be truly special. So, in the long run, the win will probably go to Jason.