PLAYOFF PREVIEW

Well, that was interesting, remarkable actually. Brandon finished third (1.5 games out) and Jason fell a game short of winning the regular season championship. Meanwhile, at the other end of the fight to the playoffs, Brian got edged out, falling a game short. This is the reason active management is so necessary – every single decision can mean the difference between getting nothing or 25% of the pool, or being a playoff team or not. Deciding to start or not start someone could seemingly just cost you the WHIP category for the week, but can ultimately keep you on the outside looking in. Tough luck for the former champ, but bravo for sticking with it and making it interesting all the way to the end.

The playoffs feature five of the original teams (Jason joined in 2007) and three former champions. A lot of the top teams didn’t have great weeks and there are a few limping into the playoffs. But it all comes down to who heats up over the next three weeks. In 2011, Pierce ended the regular season in mediocre fashion, going 23-23-4 over his last five weeks, then he got hot and took out Lars, myself and Dagan on his way to his first championship. Six teams made it in, and it’s anyone’s game. Now, to the matchups:

GRUMPY vs. Cowhide – I give Dave credit for making it back into the hunt and into the playoffs, but I don’t give him much of a chance here. In my mind, Casten still has the best team even though he’s the third seed. An overpowering offense and four double starts gives him a big advantage. However, Dunn’s oblique and 14-15 record in his last three matchups against playoff teams shows this team is not infallible. For Dave, he had an amazing run around the all star break, when he went an incredible 47-6-7 over six weeks, which vaulted him toward the top of the standings. But he’s faced three playoff teams the last three weeks and limped into the playoffs with a 5-24-1 record in that period. Dave and Brandon split the season series with Brandon getting the upperhand 11-8-1. David has his work cut out for him against Goliath, but that’s why they play the game.

Ring vs. Montezumas – It just wouldn’t feel right to be in the playoffs and not have to matchup against Dagan. This will be the fourth time the top two teams in the all-time standings have faced eachother in the playoffs and Dagan has had my number each time, including the epic 2006 championship that ended in a 4-4 tie (ERA was the tie breaker, logically…. grrr). Still, the combined score of those games was a close 16-12-2 and this week will probably be no different. Votto is supposed to be back, which should help Dagan, who also had three double starts while I have none. The pitching rates may make the difference here. While my team has been up and down all season, Dagan has been pretty consistent, only losing five matchups overall. We only played eachother once and it was another crazy battle that came down to the last day (I won 7-3). This too should be a close one.

POWER RANKINGS

1.

Team:  THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS

Manager: Brandon

Seed: 3

Notable draft picks (on roster): Brandon Morrow, Max Scherzer, Adam Dunn, Jonathan Niese, Joel Hanrahan, Rafael Betancourt

Notable free agents: Marco Estrada

How they got here: Casten had a very balanced team despite some noteable injury issues throughout, lead by a strong core of keepers (Miggy, Cutch, Reyes, Heyward and Pujols) and a number of trades involving 2013 picks. He devoted as much to going for it this year as he did in 2011 preparing for this year. Like Russ, his draft wasn’t particulary great to start – Wieters, Garza, Beachy, Hanson, and Luebke were his first five picks – disappointing, though mostly due to injuries. But he went on a strong run after that, highlighted by Dunn, who has been a beast. He’s been aided by having a rare strong, healthy, and employed bullpen -- probably a big reason he only had to use 15 transactions. In fact he had almost as many trades as free agents pickups (11).

Where the are going: Casten has as good of a chance as anyone to take this. He’s certainly devoted the resources to it. Five guys with more than 24 homers and five with more than 80 rbi his offense will be tough for anyone to handle. His pitching is beatable though, with Harang, Capuano, Wilson and Halladay inconsistent as of late and Fiers and Estrada certainly no sure things. His closers are great, but it’s a matter of opportunity (seven total saves the past two weeks).

2.

Team:  Clayton & King

Manager: Russ

Seed: 1

Notable draft picks (on roster): Mike Trout, David Freese, Matt Harrison, Jordan Zimmerman, Alejandro De Aza, Jason Kipnis

Notable free agents: Wade Miley, Alcides Escobar

How they got here: Buoyed by strong keepers (Cano, Kershaw, Felix, Hamilton, Cargo, Wainright), Russ took a solid draft and ran with it to the regular season championship. The obvious highlight is Trout, who could be the draft pick of the century. It’s always tempting to deal a player with such early success and hype, so kudos to Russ for sticking out the month he was in the minors and holding on. His season was all the more impressive considering the failures of his first five, very high draft picks – Crawford, Berkman, JMontero, Avila, Hardy. Grabbing guys like Nova, De Aza, Harrison, Kipnis and, of course Trout made all the difference. In total, Russ went 65-34 in offensive categories, which is pretty impressive.

Where the are going: With KMorales suddenly productive and Hamilton in hit mode, the offense is balanced, though it can be inconsistent. The pitching staff is interesting and a bit top heavy, with the bottom more than a little worrisome. While its important to consider his staff had been shaped quite a bit by streaming for the past week, he won’t be able to stream going forward. At least he’ll have a week to figure out what wire guys he actually wants in his run to the championship.

3.

Team:  One Nut Wonders

Manager: Jason

Seed: 2

Notable draft picks (on roster): Adam Jones, Chris Perez, Yadier Molina

Notable free agents: Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Clippard, Greg Holland, Casey Janssen

How they got here: Jason overcame the mediocrity of some of his keepers (Shields, Utley, Gordon) to gain a first round bye, swapping in and out of first place with Brandon and Russ throughout the year. He did so with, of course, a lot of trades and some strong early draft picks in Matt Moore, Jones, Rollins, Melky, Bonfacio, Perez and Vogelsong. Of course only two of those guys are still on the team, but its sort of ironic given how much he was stressing about his lack of picks during the draft considering how well he did. Still, he obviously learned something as he’s in pretty good shape for picks last year and certainly didn’t lessen the number of trades.

Where the are going: Grabbing Headly and Willingham near the deadline might’ve been his best deal of the year and has filled some holes on offense, which doesn’t have some of the names as other top seeds, but certainly has the ability to put up great weeks. The pitching would concern me though. While Lester has been better and certainly Beckett’s trade made him at least a consideration to remain on the roster, Burnett has faltered as of late, Garcia is coming back from and injury, and Hanson is having issues. There’s a lot of guys here that can place a big wet turd in the punch bowl, but they could also be great. Enjoy the break, then hold your breath, Jason.

4.

Team:  Montezuma’s Revenge

Manager: Adam

Seed: 5th

Notable draft picks (on roster): Jake Peavy, Nick Swisher

Notable free agents: Colby Rasmus

How they got here: The Revenge opened the year with a team of young keepers, most of whom underperformed (CSantana, Hosmer, JUpton, Lawrie), then used top draft picks on Pineda, CPena, CLewis, Storen, and GFloyd, making for a rather bumpy season. Grabbing guys like James McDonald and Peavy late were crucial to keeping the team afloat. Active management and some key trades made this team what it is, namely the acquisition of Sale and Desmond who were later traded as keepers, and Aramis for KDrabek and Harang. Lead by Hamels, Peavy and Dickey, the pitching staff was very good at times and helped rack up wins, going 65-32-3.

Where the are going: The offense pales in comparison to most in the league, but is capable of good weeks and late season production from early season disappointments like Hosmer and Upton could make the difference. The offense has been solid lately, though Rasmus’ star has fallen fast. Pitching will be key as it was my greatest strength during the season and a lot will depend on the performance of late season acquisitions McCarthy, Minor, Fister, BAnderson, and HStreet.

5.

Team: Ring of Fire

Manager: Dagan

Seed: 3

Notable draft picks (on roster): Matt Latos, Paul Goldschmidt, Johnny Cueto

Notable free agents: Danny Espinosa, AJ Pierzynski, Anthony Rizzo, Phil Hughes, Trevor Plouffe

How they got here: Dagan had some nice hits at the beginning of the draft, but really missed badly later on. But he made up for it with some strong free agent selection. His offense has really missed Votto, but he should be back for the first day of the playoffs. Unfortunately, it looks like Papi may be done for the year though. If Ortiz, Votto, and Kemp were healthy the entire season, you have to think Ring would be looking at a bye week coming up. Of course, as I’ve stated, the starters are inconsistent and I don’t think enough was done to improve this area at the deadline. His staff was a headwind during the season, only going 44-40-7. But given the injuries to his keepers (Youk included), it impressive he’s even here.

Where the are going: The offense includes a lot of streaky guys and unfortunately for Dagan, many of them are in the midst of a slow spell as the playoffs start and it would be a lot to expect Votto to produce immediately. But guys like Bruce, Votto, and Kemp could also explode suddenly. The biggest problem may be pitching, with really only Cueto producing at a high level the entire season. Latos and McDonald are certainly capable and Lincecum has been decent lately, so a lot will depend on how the wind blows.

6.

Team:  Cowhide Joyride

Manager: Dave

Seed: 6th

Notable draft picks (on roster): Madison Bumgarner, Craig Kimbrel, Yoenis Cespedes, Kenley Jansen, Austin Jackson

Notable free agents: Alfonso Soriano, Ernesto Frieri, Ryan Ludwick

How they got here: Dave’s had a pretty interesting season as it looked like his lack of production from keepers (Lincecum, RZimmerman, Weeks) would bury him. But he remained active throughout and traded his way into a big hole for 2013, but he’s got a good team that could win it all. Unfortunately for Dave he had a good draft but overreacted to some guys (name dropping/trading EJackson, Rasmus, and Rios). Still, guys like Johan, Bumgarner, Jensen and Kimbrel basically performed like keepers throughout much of the year.

Where the are going: Hard to tell. His biggest strength is his bullpen and that took a big blow when Jensen went down and, really, their contribution is limited to namely one category, though he certainly has most of the top K/9 relievers in the game with Kimbrel, Chapman, Frieri, and Jansen. They are capable of putting up the Ks of a good starter for the week, but its all about opportunity. The pitching is suspect with Bumgarner and Price surrounded by a lot of quetons marks, though Maholm and Hellickson have both been pretty good, albeit not spectacular. He needs the others to produce and the offense to do much better than it has (5 hrs in last two weeks).