Monday, August 27, 2012

Final Trade Reviews for 2013

Prestige receives:
1B Freddie Freeman ATL
1B/3B/OF Mark Trumbo LAA
Round 7
Round 11

Angry receives:
1B Adrian Gonzalez BOS
Round 14
Round 18

The most fascinated trade before the deadline was its last. The most titillating detail, I think, was Lars recouping Trumbo whom he let go in the worst trade of the year (Feliz and Gardner for Trumbo and Buchholz). Meanwhile, he gets Freeman, who won’t be 22 until September and quietly had a good season considering his injury issues. I think he blows up next year and I think Trumbo has proven he’s more than a three outcomes guy. Lars also acquires his third first rounder for next year and probably has situated himself in the best position for 2013 among the noncontenders outside of Chris.

Though he was coming along at a great rate, AGon was not his old self this year and you have to wonder if that had something to do with the team he was on and his comfort with Bobby V. The trade that shook the world had not occurred at the time this deal was executed, but I think it helps Adrian despite the larger park. He’s proven he can hit balls out of any park and Dodger Stadium is not Petco. Meanwhile, he’ll actually be in a better lineup next year and be in SoCal, playing in familiar parks against familiar foes. He gave up a lot but he got a top-of-the shelf keeper to go with his young guys - Giancarlo, Starlin, Lawrie, JMontero, and Middlebrooks.
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Anal receives:
SP Justin Masterson CLE
Round 19

Ring receives:
RP Steve Cishek
Round 20

Cishek has been an underrated reliever while Masterson might be the most frustrating player to own this because he teases you with enough talent to prevent you from dropping him, but every few games he just blows big time. If the great Oz indeed gives Bell back his gig, Cishek is droppable, but no big loss here with a late round one round upgrade.
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Urban receives:
SP Matt Moore TB
OF Melky Cabrera SF
Round 12

One Nut receives:
OF Shin Soo Choo CLE
SP Yovani Gallardo MIL
Round 16

As long as Melky doesn’t end up being one of Dan’s keepers, I like this trade for both teams. Moore is the best player here. He has shown his talent over the last month or so and should be a high-end keeper for years to come. Gallardo can be really good but really frustrating because his results are not dependent on the matchup (thus allowing you to mix and match), but really just a matter of whether he decides to have command or not. He can be incredible and then stink suddenly. His ERA was above 4.00 not too long ago, but a string of good outings have it back around 3.60. As a keeper, I consider him low end even though he’s been kept basically every year. Sure 200 and 207 ks the previous two seasons has been great, but the 3.84 and 3.52 eras and 1.37 and 1.22 whip place him squarely in the tier of the barely kept SPs from last year (Garza, CWilson, Latos, etc). He’s been kept on name recognition mostly. Moore, meanwhile, is the real deal and I predict will be a top 10 SP in 2013. Choo is solid all around contributor who is not a flashy keeper but a guy who contributes in all five categories. Jason stands to benefit from this deal in the short term providing Yovani can finish strong, which he has done in the past.

The Melk Man (or the Juice Man) was playing way over his head the last two year and we now know why. I would’ve hated him as a keeper even if he wasn’t caught. There’s just nothing that makes that .346 average appear sustainable and, for our purposes, it was only 44 points below his OBP, meaning he doesn’t walk, meaning if he hit .270 like he should, his OBP would be around .315. This makes the good not great 111/15/80/17 line he was projecting to have before he was busted all that more unlikely to replicate. When you factor in the additional drug testing he’ll face upon his return, we’re looking at more of a late round flier than a keeper. That said, Dan got the best player and a good upgrade, so I think he did fine.
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Donkey receives:
SP Ben Sheets ATL
Round 14

Clayton receives:
SP Scott Diamond MIN
Round 15

Diamond has had a nice season, but you have to wonder whether its just a smoke show that will eventually reveal a mediocre middle of the rotation guy. 3.04/1.21 is pretty good, but 71 k in 130 ip is not. Unfortunately for Russ, he had to give up on Sheets who had been on a incredible run and almost made him look brilliant in picking up the oft-injured former star. When the most common adjective used before your name is “oft-injured” it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s injured again. Not sure Diamond is the guy who should replace him, but one round is basically nothing, so why not see if you can find a diamond in the rough…. My apologies for the pun. That was awful.

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Ring receives:
SP Ryan Dempster TEX
SP James McDonald PIT
Round 16
Round 16

Donkey receives:
RP Jared Burton MIN
SP Wandy Rodriguez PIT
Round 12
Round 14

If Dagan was acquiring these two in April, this would be a great trade but both Dempster and McD have seen their stars plummet since the All Star break – McDonald rediscovered his command issues while Dempster left the cozy confines of the NL for a ballpark known for turning routine flyballs into homers. Too bad because both of these guys had eras around 2.00 for much of the season. Now Dagan has to hope the recent volatility was just a blip and that they turn things back around as their teams stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Six rounds for these two isn’t too bad, but I wonder if Wandy isn’t just as likely to return back to his old self as Demps or McD.
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Montezumas receives:
RP Huston Street SD
Round 15

Donkey receives:
Round 14

Pissed off the only team with a waiver position higher than me put in a claim on a disabled player, I sucked up my pride and traded Chris a pick to grab one of the better closers in the league this year. Reports are good he should be available for the playoffs.
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Cowhide receives:
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB
Round 18

Donkey receives:
SP Homer Bailey
Round 13

Solid and unspectacular, Hellickson is a good fit for Dave’s club, which has been hurt by volatility over the course of the season. Homer sort of defines volatility, which is frustrating because he can be really good at times. Dave moves his highest remaining pick in this trade, leaving him without a pick for the first seven rounds (at least for now). Five rounds seems a bit high given the trade that were occurring during this time period. An interesting factoid is that, with this trade, depending on how the draft balls bounce, Chris could actually be done drafting before Dave makes his first pick. For an owner that is typically pretty quiet, Chris did a masterful job working his roster and now will be done drafting in the eighth round. Its safe to assume we’ll be including Chris in the top tier of teams in 2013.
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Monetezumas receives:
SS Derek Jeter NYY
Round 20

Prestige receives:
SS Stephen Drew ARI
Round 17

I was willing to give Drew some time to prove he was worth keeping as my SS going into the playoffs after showing some signs of life, but he quickly rediscovered his mediocrity. I grabbed one of my keepers from last year and was quickly rewarded with three homers in the first week. With offense not necessarily my team’s strongest area, a solid guy like Jeter is a great update for three rounds.
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Grumpy receives:
SP Mike Fiers
Round 22

Keepin receives:
Round 20

Solid pickup for Casten and good recycling by Pierce, who had recently acquired Fiers in a dump trade with Dave. Fiers has come out of nowhere to have a great rookie season with very good K numbers (96 in 93 ip). Unfortunately, as tends to happen with rooks, his recent outings haven’t been as good and it may be a case where the league is starting to figure him out. Casten better hope its not a trend that is discovered in the first round of the playoffs a 2ip outing with 8er like the one at COL can be a rate killer. Not sure he is worth further digging the draft pick hole that Casten has already dug, but I guess its just two rounds.

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