Trade Review: Cowhide and Keepin

Cowhide Joyride receives:
RP Aroldis Chapman CIN
12th rounder

Keepin it REAL… receives:
SP Yu Darvish TEX
OF Alex Rios CHW
9th rounder

Sorry it took me so long to do this. Don’t mistake the delay for lack of interest because this is by far the most interesting trade thus far this season, one where I have no clue who the winner will be and we may not know until just before the 2013 draft.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the deal is the impact it has on Dave’s roster, which now features more relievers than starters – a strategy not yet utilized in H&T, though I have heard of such a thing before.  It’s always interesting to see how teams manage the number of players on the offensive bench, starting rotation, and bullpen. You have extremes in each instances – some have five bench guys, some have none and the number of starters can range from five to 13. A general rule of thumb is to take the Patriots approach – use the talent you have to maximize your ability to win. Chapman is interesting in that he’s just a reliever at the moment (one who happens to have not let up one run and is striking out an insane 16.1 per 9), but very well could be a starter heading into 2013. This is a key factor is the overall value of this trade from Dave’s perspective. In 2012, the league finally came to its senses and no one kept a relief pitcher – not Mo, not even Kimbrel, who had one of the best fantasy seasons from a reliever in history. If Aroldis is a reliever in 2013, his keeper value is basically nil – I don’t care if he strikes out 140; I’d still rather have an obvious nonkeeper like Ryan Dempster.  You get more Ks, QS, and he won’t kill your rates, while 70ips from a reliever won’t help your rates it enormously. But if he’s a starter, as he should be, he could K 300 – and that’s insanely valuable.

The other considerable factor here is Darvish. His numbers are quite good thus far, especially considering he’s new to the country and the league. Stretch out the current production rates over 200 IP and you have someone around 20QS/ 3.34ERA/ 1.46 WHIP/ 220K – very good, but not fantastic.  There were certainly guys who pitched that well or better in 2011 who were not kept in 2012 (Cain, ASanchez, Garza, Bumgarner, CWilson, etc). That said, there are few with as high of an upside as Darvish, and you can certainly anticipate improvement from the 25yo over time. The bottom line will be whether he improves or digresses over the course of the season. If he improves, Pierce has a sure keeper to hold on to or deal (he could, perhaps, deal Lester or CLee for a hefty ransom of picks). If he digresses and ends with an ERA over 4.00 and can’t get past the 20-QS threshold (among kept pitchers for 2012, only Lester and Gio had more than 30 starts and converted less than 20 QSs; both had 19), then he would be a tough guy to hold on to. If he’s just a mid-rotation guy and Chapman is a starter with K numbers not seen since Randy Johnson and Pedro, then it’s a clear win for Dave.

The pick exchange is interesting as well, as it may only be three rounds, but it’s an important three rounds. For the 9th round in 2012, we had a range of Corey Hart/ Anibal Sanchez/ Billy Butler/ JJ Hardy/ Brandon Morrow types for a ceiling, and Ichiro/ Ike Davis/ Brett Gardner/ Jimmy Rollins for the basement. For the 12th round, there were a few all-star types like Dexter Fowler, Wandy, Dempster and Cueto and a lot of flops – Lind, MMinor, Liriano, Mo, Feliz, etc. So while a three-round upgrade makes little difference when you’re drafting in the 16th versus the 19th, additional draft picks in the first three rounds is a considerable advantage.  Not to mention, Pierce has a suddenly productive Alex Rios to deal off at some point.

In the end, far too early to declare a winner here and much will have to do with what the owners and the players make of the opportunity.