Friday, June 8, 2012

Trade Review: Montezuma and Angry Pirates

Montezumas Revenge receives:
OF Nelson Cruz TEX
SP Josh Johnson MIA
3B/OF Martin Prado ATL
15th rounder

The Angry Pirates receives:
3B Brett Lawrie TOR
OF Jason Kubel ARI
SP Gavin Floyd CHW
9th rounder

I’m a little insulted my trade didn’t provoke the same outrage as I thought I did pretty well here, but I guess the bottom line is perception versus reality. Lawrie is a 22yo with incredible upside and mediocre results, while Reddick is a 25yo overachiever. I guess the pick has something to do with it too. The ironic thing is I offered Lawrie to Troy for Kennedy, ARod and Willingham and he declined … oh well.

Anyhow, though Kyle is not close to being out of the playoff race, he’s looking at his team (his pitching staff, to be precise) and preparing primarily for 2013 while trying to remain competitive this year. He’s got a nice (extremely young) core now with Stanton, Freeman, Lawrie, Ackley, Starlin, and perhaps Trumbo and two picks in each of the 9th, 12th, and 13th now. I expect he’s not done as well since he’s been one of the most active managers this year – more active than, dare I say, Jason. Where the hell did he go by the way? It’s been quiet. Too quiet…

Anyhow, Floyd actually has better overall numbers than Johnson but JJ has pitched much better recently, while Floyd started strong but has sucked, and obviously doesn’t have the upside of JJ. I actually still like Kubel and expect his power numbers to improve, but the glaring weakness in my team is power and Cruz is certainly an upgrade.

It was tough to give up Lawrie. He’s intense, fast, powerful, young, plays 3B, and has the potential to contribute in five categories. That said, I always play for this year and he was one of two large, only mildly productive chips I had to play with (Hosmer being the other one) and I think this helps my chances significantly for this year. I do, however, take on a hefty amount of injury risk with Cruz and Johnson, but I would’ve been willing to pay a lot more if I knew these guys were going to stay healthy the entire season. Prado is a nice, steady piece who is solid enough in three categories and excellent in two (OBP and R), with some flexibility to deal with cold streaks of some of my more streaky guys like Pena, Swisher, and Aramis. I also think I have a team capable of winning it all and it only cost me three pick downgrades. The rotation of Hamels, Peavy, JMcDonald, Sale, JJohnson, CLewis, Capuano, Hudson, Oswalt, and HBailey could finally take me to the promise land.

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