Cowhide Joyride receive:
Carlos Villanueva, and 3rd and 5th round picks
Anal Hershiser receive:
Ryan Howard and two 13th round picks
Anal did a nice job here. Giving up high picks isn’t easy, but it’s a lot easier when there’s significant long-term value like that of Howard. With Verlander, Haren, Konerko, Bruce, Morse, Rollins, and Strasburg, there will be plenty of options to choose from when he has to pick six. The impressive debut is likely to include a playoff spot, but there’s still pretty big holes here that could stand to be filled. Valencia, Helton, Ruiz, and Reddick are all mediocre starters, while some of the SPs (Moseley, Colmenter, Humber, and Dickey) are playing a bit over their heads. Despite that, very nice showing for an inaugural season.
Dave continues to pile up picks and, with this trade, has his last pick slated for the 12th. If he trades that last pick, it’ll be the 10th for his last pick. His draft also includes four 5th rounders; last year’s 5th round had a ceiling of JShields/Hellickson/Kuroda/Chacin/Axford and a basement of IDesmond/RFurcal/VGuerrero—so they’re solid picks. The 3rd was a solid round as well, but nothing spectacular with Soria/Feliz/RRomero/Markakis/Buchholz/Nolaso/Dempster and the Hudson pitchers. So was the combination of picks worth one of the top power hitters in the game? If you get Shields and Dan Hudson, sure. If you get Furcal and Lilly? No. I think Dave should’ve at least gotten a first rounder for Howard, but I can’t really blame him as he’s liquidated in impressive fashion thus far.
So, while Dave has done well pulling in the picks, in a vacuum I like Andy’s side of the trade.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Trade Review - Donkey and Billy Chapel
Donkey Punchers receive:
Mariano Rivera, Jaime Garcia, Tim Hudson, Jeff Karstens, and Matt Harrison
Billy Chapel receive:
Ian Kinsler, Brandon Beachy, Jordan Zimmerman, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Arrieta
A great trade for both teams. In a rare trade for Chris, he took advantage of the pickup of Ackley and will slot him in Kinsler’s spot in the lineup, while addressing a significant weakness in his starting pitching staff. Zimm and Beachy were both going to be subject to innings limits, while Lohse’s useful life has come close to and end, and Arrieta has been sporadic at best. He acquired stability, which will be key in the playoffs. Not sure what he needed Mo for, other than that he expect Heath Bell to be traded. If he’s still a closer come Sunday, then there’s a bit of an unneeded logjam here. But he could always trade off a piece. This team isn’t top heavy, with Marcum probably the best on the staff, so it was smart to make sure those behind him are less volatile.
Troy followed up the Weaver disaster with a nice trade that brought it a quality keeper in Kinsler. Can’t remember a time Mo wasn’t on his team. He’s still got a few more parts that could be traded off for draft pick upgrades or better keepers, including Beachy, who I was surprised to see be part of the trade since he’s more valuable than Harrison due to his K potential. Zimmerman has a strict innings cap, but he could still help someone. Right now, Troy’s keepers look like Beltre, Morales, Victorinio, and Kinsler, so there’s still some work to do for Troy to get a quality group to start next season with.
Nice move for both teams. Hopefully Troy doesn’t stop there.
Mariano Rivera, Jaime Garcia, Tim Hudson, Jeff Karstens, and Matt Harrison
Billy Chapel receive:
Ian Kinsler, Brandon Beachy, Jordan Zimmerman, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Arrieta
A great trade for both teams. In a rare trade for Chris, he took advantage of the pickup of Ackley and will slot him in Kinsler’s spot in the lineup, while addressing a significant weakness in his starting pitching staff. Zimm and Beachy were both going to be subject to innings limits, while Lohse’s useful life has come close to and end, and Arrieta has been sporadic at best. He acquired stability, which will be key in the playoffs. Not sure what he needed Mo for, other than that he expect Heath Bell to be traded. If he’s still a closer come Sunday, then there’s a bit of an unneeded logjam here. But he could always trade off a piece. This team isn’t top heavy, with Marcum probably the best on the staff, so it was smart to make sure those behind him are less volatile.
Troy followed up the Weaver disaster with a nice trade that brought it a quality keeper in Kinsler. Can’t remember a time Mo wasn’t on his team. He’s still got a few more parts that could be traded off for draft pick upgrades or better keepers, including Beachy, who I was surprised to see be part of the trade since he’s more valuable than Harrison due to his K potential. Zimmerman has a strict innings cap, but he could still help someone. Right now, Troy’s keepers look like Beltre, Morales, Victorinio, and Kinsler, so there’s still some work to do for Troy to get a quality group to start next season with.
Nice move for both teams. Hopefully Troy doesn’t stop there.
Trade Review - Grumpy and Keepin it Real...
The Grump Munchkins receive:
A buncha crap and 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks
Keepin it Real receive:
Geovany Soto, Mark Trumbo, Brandon McCarthy, Aaron Harang, Carlos Carrasco and three 9th round picks.
Interesting. The type of trade you’d never be able to see in the old system, prior to being able to trade picks. If nothing else, its kept more people involved where they might not have been otherwise. But you have to wonder about the impact the change has had on the competitiveness of the league. With rosters such as Brandon’s depleted to the core, it’s a significant advantage to those struggling to secure a playoff spot to play one of these teams during these final weeks. If these teams don’t have success, we may see less teams go this route next year, knowing that a killer draft only gets you so far. Or these teams could find great success and you might see teams call it a year even earlier and executing a two-year plan.
Anyhow, this was all about depth for Pierce. While there were a lot of players and picks involved (16 total), this is relatively minor trade. The pitchers are all middle of the road, Soto is having a waiver wire type year, and Trumbo is a nice UTIL/bench bat. But they’re definitely an upgrade because, while mediocre, the Carmona/Arroyo combo can do some damage on your ratios and spoil the efforts of an overall quality staff. McCarthy has been particularly reliable this year, outside of his injury.
While the players were mediocre, the picks were really minor upgrades and the difference between the 12th and 15th is not entirely discernable. It now make Casten’s draft one round shorter, allowing him to only have to stick around until the 8th round next year. And who know’s he could make it even shorter, with Boesch and Jennings in particular – though the meat is almost entirely pecked away from the munchkin carcass at this point.
A buncha crap and 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks
Keepin it Real receive:
Geovany Soto, Mark Trumbo, Brandon McCarthy, Aaron Harang, Carlos Carrasco and three 9th round picks.
Interesting. The type of trade you’d never be able to see in the old system, prior to being able to trade picks. If nothing else, its kept more people involved where they might not have been otherwise. But you have to wonder about the impact the change has had on the competitiveness of the league. With rosters such as Brandon’s depleted to the core, it’s a significant advantage to those struggling to secure a playoff spot to play one of these teams during these final weeks. If these teams don’t have success, we may see less teams go this route next year, knowing that a killer draft only gets you so far. Or these teams could find great success and you might see teams call it a year even earlier and executing a two-year plan.
Anyhow, this was all about depth for Pierce. While there were a lot of players and picks involved (16 total), this is relatively minor trade. The pitchers are all middle of the road, Soto is having a waiver wire type year, and Trumbo is a nice UTIL/bench bat. But they’re definitely an upgrade because, while mediocre, the Carmona/Arroyo combo can do some damage on your ratios and spoil the efforts of an overall quality staff. McCarthy has been particularly reliable this year, outside of his injury.
While the players were mediocre, the picks were really minor upgrades and the difference between the 12th and 15th is not entirely discernable. It now make Casten’s draft one round shorter, allowing him to only have to stick around until the 8th round next year. And who know’s he could make it even shorter, with Boesch and Jennings in particular – though the meat is almost entirely pecked away from the munchkin carcass at this point.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Cowhide Joyride receive:
Buster Posey, Derek Holland, 5th round pick, and a 10th round pick
Montezuma’s Revenge receives:
Carlos Beltran, Josh Beckett, 15th round pick, and 16th round pick
Dave turned two of his best picks from the 2011 draft (and two of the best picks in the entire draft) into some nice value. With Posey, he has someone he can either keep and have excellent keepers at the shallowest positions (Weeks and 2B, Zimmerman at 3B, Andrus at SS, and Posey at C), or he can trade for a good draft pick or two. What might make the most sense is packaging the newly acquired RHoward with Posey and seeing what those two keepers could bring in. He also gets two nice picks and has lots of nice parts left to deal off for more picks. He may have lost the opportunity to get very high picks (first or second round) with his recent deals to sell the major guys, but he’ll dominate the middle rounds.
For myself, the market for Posey was getting pretty thin among the teams who were giving up for the year. Either they didn’t have the parts I needed or had too many keepers already (or, in Troy’s case, just didn’t like Busta). I would’ve been fine keeping him and trading in the offseason, but wanted to address the need for another good hitter and pitcher and got them both. I hate giving up draft picks, but gotta go for it when you have a shot. Grabbing the 17th and 42nd ranked players so far was definitely a good move I think and gives me a rotation that is not especially top heavy, but is deep and consistent. Beltran will essentially replace Dunn as a regular, which is obviously positive. And given my track record with early picks, I may be better off drafting in the late rounds anyway.
All in all, again, a trade that works for all involved.
Buster Posey, Derek Holland, 5th round pick, and a 10th round pick
Montezuma’s Revenge receives:
Carlos Beltran, Josh Beckett, 15th round pick, and 16th round pick
Dave turned two of his best picks from the 2011 draft (and two of the best picks in the entire draft) into some nice value. With Posey, he has someone he can either keep and have excellent keepers at the shallowest positions (Weeks and 2B, Zimmerman at 3B, Andrus at SS, and Posey at C), or he can trade for a good draft pick or two. What might make the most sense is packaging the newly acquired RHoward with Posey and seeing what those two keepers could bring in. He also gets two nice picks and has lots of nice parts left to deal off for more picks. He may have lost the opportunity to get very high picks (first or second round) with his recent deals to sell the major guys, but he’ll dominate the middle rounds.
For myself, the market for Posey was getting pretty thin among the teams who were giving up for the year. Either they didn’t have the parts I needed or had too many keepers already (or, in Troy’s case, just didn’t like Busta). I would’ve been fine keeping him and trading in the offseason, but wanted to address the need for another good hitter and pitcher and got them both. I hate giving up draft picks, but gotta go for it when you have a shot. Grabbing the 17th and 42nd ranked players so far was definitely a good move I think and gives me a rotation that is not especially top heavy, but is deep and consistent. Beltran will essentially replace Dunn as a regular, which is obviously positive. And given my track record with early picks, I may be better off drafting in the late rounds anyway.
All in all, again, a trade that works for all involved.
Trade Review - Moose and Cowhide
Moose in Loose receive:
Mark Reynolds, 14th round pick
Cowhide Joyride receive:
6th round pick
Here rests Brian, stuck in no man’s land. Is he going for it, or not? He’s 13 games out, in second to last, but has a roster capable of making a run and he’s up 9-0 vs. Troy this week. Of course, losing McCann hurt (you really tempted the fantasy gods with that one) and he’s got plenty of pieces that could help contenders and set him up well for next year. Tough call, but I like that he’s sticking it out. You only get so many chances to be a repeat champion and he could definitely end up in 8th with five weeks left. Reynolds is a good get, though the price may have been a little steep. He’s a tough guy to place value on because he’s so streaky, but there’s only so many guys who can hit 40 homers from the 3B position. At this point, Brian needs to go big or go home, so acquiring Reynolds with the hope that he hits a hot streak is a good call. And, who knows, Reynolds is good enough to prove himself worthy of keeper eligibility again, as there are very few consistent power sources out there and third is weak.
For Dave, he gets some good value for one of his former keepers and he is gradually stocking up picks for next season. The 6th round was a mixed bag with flops like AHill, PHughes and BMatusz and some great finds with Bourn, Beckett, Anibal, AJones and Valverde – a good round to target for those trading off pieces. I still think Dave could’ve made some noise if he stuck it out, but I can’t argue with the way he’s worked since “packing it in.”
Overall, I commend Brian for sticking with and I think Dave is taking the correct route now that he is in liquidation mode.
Mark Reynolds, 14th round pick
Cowhide Joyride receive:
6th round pick
Here rests Brian, stuck in no man’s land. Is he going for it, or not? He’s 13 games out, in second to last, but has a roster capable of making a run and he’s up 9-0 vs. Troy this week. Of course, losing McCann hurt (you really tempted the fantasy gods with that one) and he’s got plenty of pieces that could help contenders and set him up well for next year. Tough call, but I like that he’s sticking it out. You only get so many chances to be a repeat champion and he could definitely end up in 8th with five weeks left. Reynolds is a good get, though the price may have been a little steep. He’s a tough guy to place value on because he’s so streaky, but there’s only so many guys who can hit 40 homers from the 3B position. At this point, Brian needs to go big or go home, so acquiring Reynolds with the hope that he hits a hot streak is a good call. And, who knows, Reynolds is good enough to prove himself worthy of keeper eligibility again, as there are very few consistent power sources out there and third is weak.
For Dave, he gets some good value for one of his former keepers and he is gradually stocking up picks for next season. The 6th round was a mixed bag with flops like AHill, PHughes and BMatusz and some great finds with Bourn, Beckett, Anibal, AJones and Valverde – a good round to target for those trading off pieces. I still think Dave could’ve made some noise if he stuck it out, but I can’t argue with the way he’s worked since “packing it in.”
Overall, I commend Brian for sticking with and I think Dave is taking the correct route now that he is in liquidation mode.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Trade Review - Billy Chapel and One Nut
Billy Chapel receive:
Kendrys Morales, Adrian Beltre, Mark Buehrle, and a 5th round pick
One Nut receive:
Jered Weaver, Alex Gordon, and a 1st round pick
Troy ultimately did not get the type of return many had expected for one of the top pitchers in the league, causing a mild uproar throughout the league. Ok, maybe a little more than mild. The issue at hand is the keeper worthiness of Morales and Beltre. If you look on the surface, based on this year’s stats, you could make a case for Beltre and Morales for Weaver, as Beltre is hitting in the middle of one of the top lineups in the league and hitting well, while Morales had a 86/34/108/.355 line in 2009 and just turned 28 years old. The thing keeping Beltre from being a high quality keeper is he only contributes in three categories (albeit doing so quite well over the last year and a half) as his .316 obp is atrocious and he simply does not run. And he’s 32 Dominican years old, meaning he’s not in his prime and thus, not a long-term keeper. For 2012, yes, but I would be surprised if this kind of production continues and makes him a keeper in 2013. Morales, meanwhile, will have not hit a baseball in a major league game in 23 months come next April, assuming that he’s fully recovered. He has the pedigree of a masher who the Angels signed in his teens hoping for years like 2009, but the bottom line is he’s just had one good year. For a guy like Weaver, Troy should’ve gotten more. One could actually make the case that Alex Gordon was a more valuable keeper than Morales with a solid 57/12/54/9/.369 line and a pedigree that far exceeds anyone involved in the trade. No sense continuing to stone Troy for this, but the fact that a first round pick needed to be added for Jason is simply ludicrous.
For Jason, well, it was a brilliant bit of negotiating in which he rid himself of a player eating a bench spot and didn’t lose very much at 3B with Gordon. Weaver has a 1.79 era and 0.95 whip, which is dazzling, and makes the uproar following the Justin Upton (for CHart and Weaver) deal over the winter seem a little silly by comparison. Weaver is a flat out stud and will provide some consistency to hedge against the volatile Morrow, Lewis, Lowe, and Wandys of the roster. He’s a surefire keeper for many years to come. Oh and Jason gets a first rounder next year. He’ll be having wet dreams about this for months.
The league has had some doozies over the years, but this might be the most lopsided of them all.
Kendrys Morales, Adrian Beltre, Mark Buehrle, and a 5th round pick
One Nut receive:
Jered Weaver, Alex Gordon, and a 1st round pick
Troy ultimately did not get the type of return many had expected for one of the top pitchers in the league, causing a mild uproar throughout the league. Ok, maybe a little more than mild. The issue at hand is the keeper worthiness of Morales and Beltre. If you look on the surface, based on this year’s stats, you could make a case for Beltre and Morales for Weaver, as Beltre is hitting in the middle of one of the top lineups in the league and hitting well, while Morales had a 86/34/108/.355 line in 2009 and just turned 28 years old. The thing keeping Beltre from being a high quality keeper is he only contributes in three categories (albeit doing so quite well over the last year and a half) as his .316 obp is atrocious and he simply does not run. And he’s 32 Dominican years old, meaning he’s not in his prime and thus, not a long-term keeper. For 2012, yes, but I would be surprised if this kind of production continues and makes him a keeper in 2013. Morales, meanwhile, will have not hit a baseball in a major league game in 23 months come next April, assuming that he’s fully recovered. He has the pedigree of a masher who the Angels signed in his teens hoping for years like 2009, but the bottom line is he’s just had one good year. For a guy like Weaver, Troy should’ve gotten more. One could actually make the case that Alex Gordon was a more valuable keeper than Morales with a solid 57/12/54/9/.369 line and a pedigree that far exceeds anyone involved in the trade. No sense continuing to stone Troy for this, but the fact that a first round pick needed to be added for Jason is simply ludicrous.
For Jason, well, it was a brilliant bit of negotiating in which he rid himself of a player eating a bench spot and didn’t lose very much at 3B with Gordon. Weaver has a 1.79 era and 0.95 whip, which is dazzling, and makes the uproar following the Justin Upton (for CHart and Weaver) deal over the winter seem a little silly by comparison. Weaver is a flat out stud and will provide some consistency to hedge against the volatile Morrow, Lewis, Lowe, and Wandys of the roster. He’s a surefire keeper for many years to come. Oh and Jason gets a first rounder next year. He’ll be having wet dreams about this for months.
The league has had some doozies over the years, but this might be the most lopsided of them all.
Trade Review - Cowhide and Prestige
Cowhide Joyride receive:
Ryan Howard, Steve Chishek, Frank Francisco, Carl Pavano, and a 9th and 13th round pick
Prestige Worldwide receive:
Madison Bumgarner, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Papelbon, and Drew Storen
Following his packing it in email, Dave got pretty good value for four players that will definitely help out Lars. Howard is obviously a great player and is a quality sixth keeper to go with Fielder, Weeks, Zimmerman, Andrus, and Lincecum, though it may behoove Dave to upgrade another position since he already has a hulking homer-hitting firstbasemen. The picks are middle of the draft, which is all right, nothing spectacular, but all right for what he was giving up, which was no one incredibly special.
While not incredibly special, they definitely address a problem area for Lars, which was pitching and only thins a position he already has AGon at. His offense is loaded, but bullpen has definitely been a problem and he got two mainstays who will keep him competitive in the saves category. Outside of Chacin and Price, Lars’ starters were a whole lot of mediocrity. Bumgarner is having a great season and is definitely an asset, while Nolasco can be brilliant or a complete mess. Unfortunately for Lars, he has a number of volatile pitchers who will occasionally make a mess of his ratios. But the trade was a good one overall and I highly doubt the loss of Howard will hurt this team going forward this season.
Overall, the trade was pretty even and addressed areas of concern for both owners.
Ryan Howard, Steve Chishek, Frank Francisco, Carl Pavano, and a 9th and 13th round pick
Prestige Worldwide receive:
Madison Bumgarner, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Papelbon, and Drew Storen
Following his packing it in email, Dave got pretty good value for four players that will definitely help out Lars. Howard is obviously a great player and is a quality sixth keeper to go with Fielder, Weeks, Zimmerman, Andrus, and Lincecum, though it may behoove Dave to upgrade another position since he already has a hulking homer-hitting firstbasemen. The picks are middle of the draft, which is all right, nothing spectacular, but all right for what he was giving up, which was no one incredibly special.
While not incredibly special, they definitely address a problem area for Lars, which was pitching and only thins a position he already has AGon at. His offense is loaded, but bullpen has definitely been a problem and he got two mainstays who will keep him competitive in the saves category. Outside of Chacin and Price, Lars’ starters were a whole lot of mediocrity. Bumgarner is having a great season and is definitely an asset, while Nolasco can be brilliant or a complete mess. Unfortunately for Lars, he has a number of volatile pitchers who will occasionally make a mess of his ratios. But the trade was a good one overall and I highly doubt the loss of Howard will hurt this team going forward this season.
Overall, the trade was pretty even and addressed areas of concern for both owners.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Grumpy Munchkins receive:
8th and 9th round picks
Anal Hershiser receives:
Josh Collmenter, 10th and 12th picks
A pretty ho-hum trade, so I won’t ramble, but one that makes sense. For Anal, he gets a guy who has performed well but relies on deception and control, is playing well above his head, and is due for some regression here. That said, he really didn’t give up much, so no real loss. For Casten, he continues to work the system in a way many other “punters” should. He now will be finished drafting in the 9th round (that’s nine rounds before the rest of us are done, in case you’re wondering), which should please him greatly since he’s always the one whining about how late the drafts go. In case you’re curious, the 9th round yielded guys like IKennedy, CBeltran, IDavis, JHanrahan, and TStauffer. If that is the worst player on the Munchkins next year, Brandon’s gonna be tough to beat… on paper. The ugly side of the 9th are guys like JUribe, JKubel, Arroyo, FFrancisco, TSnider, and the immortal EEncarnacion. And my guess is Casten isn’t done yet with guys like Trumbo, Boesch, Jennings, McCarthy, Lyles, Harang, and Luebke all useful pieces for someone making a run at it. You can argue he’s stupid for giving up on a season while he’s in the playoff race, but you can’t say he’s going about it halfass.
8th and 9th round picks
Anal Hershiser receives:
Josh Collmenter, 10th and 12th picks
A pretty ho-hum trade, so I won’t ramble, but one that makes sense. For Anal, he gets a guy who has performed well but relies on deception and control, is playing well above his head, and is due for some regression here. That said, he really didn’t give up much, so no real loss. For Casten, he continues to work the system in a way many other “punters” should. He now will be finished drafting in the 9th round (that’s nine rounds before the rest of us are done, in case you’re wondering), which should please him greatly since he’s always the one whining about how late the drafts go. In case you’re curious, the 9th round yielded guys like IKennedy, CBeltran, IDavis, JHanrahan, and TStauffer. If that is the worst player on the Munchkins next year, Brandon’s gonna be tough to beat… on paper. The ugly side of the 9th are guys like JUribe, JKubel, Arroyo, FFrancisco, TSnider, and the immortal EEncarnacion. And my guess is Casten isn’t done yet with guys like Trumbo, Boesch, Jennings, McCarthy, Lyles, Harang, and Luebke all useful pieces for someone making a run at it. You can argue he’s stupid for giving up on a season while he’s in the playoff race, but you can’t say he’s going about it halfass.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Trade Review - Montezuma and Colon
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Grady Sizemore
Montezuma’s Revenge receives:
Rajai Davis
After a rather stunning silence in the trade department over the last week and a half, Russ and I made this exchange in a pretty low key move compared to most recently. For Russ, Sizemore represents name recognition and high value when healthy. He had spurts of dominance mixed within three trips to the DL for various issues not related to the surgically repaired knee. If he comes back and has an excellent last month, there’s some keeper potential to be had here. If not, he didn’t give up very much to get him. Smart, low risk move.
The move is more significant for my team, which seems to have accumulated more injuries again. The Revenge have been pretty woeful in the speed department with the second lowest total in the league with 60 total. The add of Davis immediately gives my team a legitimate threat in that category. He’s played better as of late, but is still sporting a .267 obp. A good bench player to have.
In summary, Russ got a potential piece to move and I got a one dimensional bench player who should provide a boost.
Grady Sizemore
Montezuma’s Revenge receives:
Rajai Davis
After a rather stunning silence in the trade department over the last week and a half, Russ and I made this exchange in a pretty low key move compared to most recently. For Russ, Sizemore represents name recognition and high value when healthy. He had spurts of dominance mixed within three trips to the DL for various issues not related to the surgically repaired knee. If he comes back and has an excellent last month, there’s some keeper potential to be had here. If not, he didn’t give up very much to get him. Smart, low risk move.
The move is more significant for my team, which seems to have accumulated more injuries again. The Revenge have been pretty woeful in the speed department with the second lowest total in the league with 60 total. The add of Davis immediately gives my team a legitimate threat in that category. He’s played better as of late, but is still sporting a .267 obp. A good bench player to have.
In summary, Russ got a potential piece to move and I got a one dimensional bench player who should provide a boost.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Trade Review - Colon and Angry Pirates
The Angry Pirates receive:
Mike Stanton, Gio Gonzalez, Max Sherzer, Phil Hughes, 8th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Rajai Davis, David Freese, 6th rounder
Kyle took a considerable risk here in trading two solid keepers for one good one (not sold on Gio yet). Hamels has really been undervalued in recent years for no real reason other than a mediocre 2009 season. He’s young and a high K, low rate guy, pitching in the NL east and has been more valuable in 2011 than Felix, who is still the prize of this trade from a keeper perspective. Not to mention that earlier this season, Felix cost Kyle Carlos Santana, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and two 3rd rounders (he received a 6th and a 12th). Make no mistake about it, Stanton is a young, stud home run hitter in a time when those are hard to come by, but these are two of the top five keeper pitchers in the league. He’s also barely old enough to drink, which means volatility is likely and his peak is still five years away (though, those peak years could be fun). All that said, if you looked at this trade at the beginning of the season, you could make the argument it favored Kyle because Scherzer and Hughes were both considered quality second-tier SPs. If those two turn it around and the Pirates make a serious run, you can hardly blame Kyle. But it might hurt more going into next season than it probably could’ve because I think he could’ve gotten more.
For Colon, I like the move. For some reason, this team isn’t performing to the level of the competition. There are still some great offensive players without Stanton, who could provide a push to the playoffs. Meanwhile his staff surpasses Peirce’s for best in the league (at least, on paper) with Halladay, Felix, Kershaw, and Hamels leading the way. It’s a move that allows him to look for next season without giving up on this season, which is brilliant for the current structure and standing of this team. If it does fall apart, there’s an excellent opportunity to upgrade keepers, which also includes CarGo, Cano, and JHamilton. Oh and lets not forget Wainright has been sitting in the DL spot the entire season. It would not shock me if Roy, Felix, Clayton, Cole, and Adam W were the top five fantasy pitchers in the league in 2012, so whether its players or trades there’s a lot to play with here. And I think it would’ve taken some convincing to get someone to take Gio in a trade with full confidence they were receiving a keeper, for no other reason than lack of name recognition.
All in all, it’s a risk that could pay off big for Kyle and a smart, calculated decision by Russ that puts him in great shape going forward.
Mike Stanton, Gio Gonzalez, Max Sherzer, Phil Hughes, 8th rounder
Colon No Like Salad receive:
Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels, Rajai Davis, David Freese, 6th rounder
Kyle took a considerable risk here in trading two solid keepers for one good one (not sold on Gio yet). Hamels has really been undervalued in recent years for no real reason other than a mediocre 2009 season. He’s young and a high K, low rate guy, pitching in the NL east and has been more valuable in 2011 than Felix, who is still the prize of this trade from a keeper perspective. Not to mention that earlier this season, Felix cost Kyle Carlos Santana, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and two 3rd rounders (he received a 6th and a 12th). Make no mistake about it, Stanton is a young, stud home run hitter in a time when those are hard to come by, but these are two of the top five keeper pitchers in the league. He’s also barely old enough to drink, which means volatility is likely and his peak is still five years away (though, those peak years could be fun). All that said, if you looked at this trade at the beginning of the season, you could make the argument it favored Kyle because Scherzer and Hughes were both considered quality second-tier SPs. If those two turn it around and the Pirates make a serious run, you can hardly blame Kyle. But it might hurt more going into next season than it probably could’ve because I think he could’ve gotten more.
For Colon, I like the move. For some reason, this team isn’t performing to the level of the competition. There are still some great offensive players without Stanton, who could provide a push to the playoffs. Meanwhile his staff surpasses Peirce’s for best in the league (at least, on paper) with Halladay, Felix, Kershaw, and Hamels leading the way. It’s a move that allows him to look for next season without giving up on this season, which is brilliant for the current structure and standing of this team. If it does fall apart, there’s an excellent opportunity to upgrade keepers, which also includes CarGo, Cano, and JHamilton. Oh and lets not forget Wainright has been sitting in the DL spot the entire season. It would not shock me if Roy, Felix, Clayton, Cole, and Adam W were the top five fantasy pitchers in the league in 2012, so whether its players or trades there’s a lot to play with here. And I think it would’ve taken some convincing to get someone to take Gio in a trade with full confidence they were receiving a keeper, for no other reason than lack of name recognition.
All in all, it’s a risk that could pay off big for Kyle and a smart, calculated decision by Russ that puts him in great shape going forward.
Trade Review - Grumpy and Anal
The Grumpy Munchkins receive:
2nd round pick
Anal Hersheiser receives:
Michael Morse, a 11th round pick
Pretty cut and dry here. First, Morse – He’s good. Is he a keeper? He’s had 290 abs as of Wednesday. Let’s say a full a season is double that – 84r/34hr/104rbi/4stl/.364obp – there’s certainly been worse keepers. This year’s second round brought forth guys like Gio, Granderson, Marcum, Lind, Sandoval, Andrus – some high quality shit, but Morse certainly fits that value profile, especially with OF eligibility. It’s a tough pick to give up, but if he proves to be a keeper than it’s more than worthwhile for Anal. Certainly, if he assists in a playoff run, it’s worth it. He’s a nice upgrade to the Ludwick/SSmith types that often filled the UTIL/OF slot. The question is whether Morse keeps this up, as he has never been a full time player before and had a pretty crappy first month or so. Don’t forget, this guy was on the waiver wire not that long ago.
For Casten, let look at his pick stockpile – eight picks in the first two rounds, draft done by the 12th (though, I have no doubt he’ll trade off that 12th rounder, in which case he’ll be done by the 10th). For theoretical purposes, let’s take a look at how the corresponding picks in the first three rounds for the 2011 draft: Aramis Ramirez, Brian Wilson, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Pablo Sandoval, Joakim Soria, Nick Markakis, and Geovany Soto. To go along with Reyes, Heyward, Pujols, MCabrera, and McCutchen. And, oh, by the way, Casten is still in the playoff hunt and is 27-10-3 in the past four weeks. He’s worked the system nicely so far, though you got to expect some sort of decline in the rankings from his pitching staff in the next few weeks. You have to wonder what sort of run this team would’ve had in it had Casten not started selling off the parts for picks. It’s a tough call.
Anyhow, value wise, this is a pretty fair trade, though I could certainly see Casten’s return proving to be more valuable in the long run.
2nd round pick
Anal Hersheiser receives:
Michael Morse, a 11th round pick
Pretty cut and dry here. First, Morse – He’s good. Is he a keeper? He’s had 290 abs as of Wednesday. Let’s say a full a season is double that – 84r/34hr/104rbi/4stl/.364obp – there’s certainly been worse keepers. This year’s second round brought forth guys like Gio, Granderson, Marcum, Lind, Sandoval, Andrus – some high quality shit, but Morse certainly fits that value profile, especially with OF eligibility. It’s a tough pick to give up, but if he proves to be a keeper than it’s more than worthwhile for Anal. Certainly, if he assists in a playoff run, it’s worth it. He’s a nice upgrade to the Ludwick/SSmith types that often filled the UTIL/OF slot. The question is whether Morse keeps this up, as he has never been a full time player before and had a pretty crappy first month or so. Don’t forget, this guy was on the waiver wire not that long ago.
For Casten, let look at his pick stockpile – eight picks in the first two rounds, draft done by the 12th (though, I have no doubt he’ll trade off that 12th rounder, in which case he’ll be done by the 10th). For theoretical purposes, let’s take a look at how the corresponding picks in the first three rounds for the 2011 draft: Aramis Ramirez, Brian Wilson, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Pablo Sandoval, Joakim Soria, Nick Markakis, and Geovany Soto. To go along with Reyes, Heyward, Pujols, MCabrera, and McCutchen. And, oh, by the way, Casten is still in the playoff hunt and is 27-10-3 in the past four weeks. He’s worked the system nicely so far, though you got to expect some sort of decline in the rankings from his pitching staff in the next few weeks. You have to wonder what sort of run this team would’ve had in it had Casten not started selling off the parts for picks. It’s a tough call.
Anyhow, value wise, this is a pretty fair trade, though I could certainly see Casten’s return proving to be more valuable in the long run.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Trade Review - Moose and Urban
Moose is Loose receive:
BJ Upton, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Alfonso Soriano, 3rd round pick
Urban Achievers receive:
Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Alex Presley, Eric Thames, 1st round pick
This is one of those trades that should make everyone think twice about lamenting the “dump trades” that occur before the trade deadline. Really, they’re a great thing. They create opportunities for the downtrodden to look forward to next year, while allowing the competitors a chance to enhance their team in exchange for theoretical long-term losses. Without them, we’d see much less trades. And nothing is more exciting and potentially more impactful than a good trade. It hurts for teams that think they could’ve offered better, but hopefully inspires them to be proactive in the future. Allowing the exchange of draft picks has expanded every team’s ability to upgrade their team. While I was initially against it, I’m warming up to it as the season goes on. Sure, some trades have resulted in some imbalanced exchanges of 2012 picks, but it has further expanded the freedom each owner has to manage their team. On a side note, not requiring people to start two RP was also a good move and has also provided the opportunity for owners to be strategic—perhaps to their own detriment, but that’s the beauty of it all. If you wanted to, trading your first five picks next year could address many of the holes on your team, but do you sacrifice next year’s roster for the chance at glory next year? Are you that confident in your assessment of players that you think your 2012 team would be just fine regardless? All questions you have to consider and could send you in a wide range of directions and, ultimately, it separates the men from the boys.
I digress. For Moose, I applaud the reigning champ for his sticktoitiveness and willingness to go for it this year despite the serious challenges his roster has faced. No one has had more bad luck with top players. Choo is much better than he has performed and Morneau is a perennial top fantasy 1B. While Choo may return to form this year, he’s injured and Brian isn’t in a position to sit back and wait for him. Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear Morneau won’t be the masher of old this year. You team that with Greinke’s stupid basketball injury and subsequent underperformance and Uggla’s issues with his new surroundings, it’s been a shit show from the beginning. Now, his bullpen, which was once a strength, lost K-Rod to trade and Putz to injury. Ouch. Safe to say a repeat will be tough, but if he can make it to the playoffs, he still has a chance. Starting guys like Presley and Thames, you have no chance. What I like about the trade from Brian’s end is that he took a hit on the keeper end, but BJ Upton is more than solid as a keeper. And, sure, it hurts to lose a first rounder, but he’s only downgrading a couple rounds. And one could argue, teams found more success in the 3rd round this year than the 1st. Meanwhile, Pagan has the potential for a big second half and Frenchy and Soriano are significant upgrades to the Presley/Pierre/Thames/Melky/Hunter combo. Not to mention, Brian acquired 55 steals—a category that has been a problem for him this year. More challenges await, but he addressed his biggest area of need.
On Urban’s end, Morneau is expected to recover and Choo almost certainly will return to some semblance of the form that made him one of the top all around contributors in the league last year. Upton is a tough loss, but he’s also tough to rely on and can be very streaky. BJ probably has the most high end potential, but I think it is smart for Dan to build up a solid core in preparation for next year. There’s still work to be done, but CC, CYoung, Morneau and Choo are a nice start and the upgrade to a first rounder was a good move, though I think it probably could’ve been a more substantial upgrade. I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more action on this front from Urban, especially considering Casten offered me a handjob for my 11th rounder. But Dan still got pieces to sell off with KJohnson, Jeter, Hafner, Napoli, CLee, Liriano, Vargas, Gallardo, FGarcia, and Tomlin all falling in the above-waiver-wire-material-and-useful-but-not-quite-keeper category.
All in all, again, nice work guys. Trade works for all parties.
BJ Upton, Angel Pagan, Jeff Francoeur, Alfonso Soriano, 3rd round pick
Urban Achievers receive:
Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Alex Presley, Eric Thames, 1st round pick
This is one of those trades that should make everyone think twice about lamenting the “dump trades” that occur before the trade deadline. Really, they’re a great thing. They create opportunities for the downtrodden to look forward to next year, while allowing the competitors a chance to enhance their team in exchange for theoretical long-term losses. Without them, we’d see much less trades. And nothing is more exciting and potentially more impactful than a good trade. It hurts for teams that think they could’ve offered better, but hopefully inspires them to be proactive in the future. Allowing the exchange of draft picks has expanded every team’s ability to upgrade their team. While I was initially against it, I’m warming up to it as the season goes on. Sure, some trades have resulted in some imbalanced exchanges of 2012 picks, but it has further expanded the freedom each owner has to manage their team. On a side note, not requiring people to start two RP was also a good move and has also provided the opportunity for owners to be strategic—perhaps to their own detriment, but that’s the beauty of it all. If you wanted to, trading your first five picks next year could address many of the holes on your team, but do you sacrifice next year’s roster for the chance at glory next year? Are you that confident in your assessment of players that you think your 2012 team would be just fine regardless? All questions you have to consider and could send you in a wide range of directions and, ultimately, it separates the men from the boys.
I digress. For Moose, I applaud the reigning champ for his sticktoitiveness and willingness to go for it this year despite the serious challenges his roster has faced. No one has had more bad luck with top players. Choo is much better than he has performed and Morneau is a perennial top fantasy 1B. While Choo may return to form this year, he’s injured and Brian isn’t in a position to sit back and wait for him. Meanwhile, it’s pretty clear Morneau won’t be the masher of old this year. You team that with Greinke’s stupid basketball injury and subsequent underperformance and Uggla’s issues with his new surroundings, it’s been a shit show from the beginning. Now, his bullpen, which was once a strength, lost K-Rod to trade and Putz to injury. Ouch. Safe to say a repeat will be tough, but if he can make it to the playoffs, he still has a chance. Starting guys like Presley and Thames, you have no chance. What I like about the trade from Brian’s end is that he took a hit on the keeper end, but BJ Upton is more than solid as a keeper. And, sure, it hurts to lose a first rounder, but he’s only downgrading a couple rounds. And one could argue, teams found more success in the 3rd round this year than the 1st. Meanwhile, Pagan has the potential for a big second half and Frenchy and Soriano are significant upgrades to the Presley/Pierre/Thames/Melky/Hunter combo. Not to mention, Brian acquired 55 steals—a category that has been a problem for him this year. More challenges await, but he addressed his biggest area of need.
On Urban’s end, Morneau is expected to recover and Choo almost certainly will return to some semblance of the form that made him one of the top all around contributors in the league last year. Upton is a tough loss, but he’s also tough to rely on and can be very streaky. BJ probably has the most high end potential, but I think it is smart for Dan to build up a solid core in preparation for next year. There’s still work to be done, but CC, CYoung, Morneau and Choo are a nice start and the upgrade to a first rounder was a good move, though I think it probably could’ve been a more substantial upgrade. I’m a little surprised we haven’t seen more action on this front from Urban, especially considering Casten offered me a handjob for my 11th rounder. But Dan still got pieces to sell off with KJohnson, Jeter, Hafner, Napoli, CLee, Liriano, Vargas, Gallardo, FGarcia, and Tomlin all falling in the above-waiver-wire-material-and-useful-but-not-quite-keeper category.
All in all, again, nice work guys. Trade works for all parties.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Trade Review - Grumpy and Keepin it Real
Grumpy Munchkins receive:
Desmond Jennings, 3rd round pick, 10th round pick
Keepin it Real receive:
Jayson Werth, 13th round pick, 15th round pick
There’s a few different things going on in this trade, but the primary focus should really be the acquisition of a third rounder next year for Werth. Jennings may have some value come playoff time, but I don’t believe he’s the type of prospect that deserved being rostered for this long, nor should any competitive team continue to keep him as a bench player. The 10th and 13th rounds are not very different and the 15th is basically the beginning of the “take a shot” territory in the draft (in fact, there is only one player from the 15th round 2011 draft who is on the same team they were drafted by-- Billy Chapel’s Ryan Madson). For Peirce, it’s not a bad move to take a shot on a guy like Werth, who has woefully underperformed in his new surroundings. Keepin it Real has plummeted in the standings after being in first not long ago, thanks to four straight losses to tough opponents (Donkey, Montezuma, Prestige, Ring), which has more or less corresponded with his trade of MCabrera. This team still has the talent to take it all this year, but Pierce is in need of offense and Werth has shown an ability to provide that in the past and the trade didn’t impact the 2011 team. I still think he could stand to dilute his pitching staff in exchange for an offensive boost (a Pineda trade to a non-contender would make a lot of sense), but I applaud him for not giving up. Unfortunately, one of Werth’s assets is his base-stealing ability and that’s really not a need for Pierce, meanwhile there are four guys on the waiver wire who have more homers than Werth—three of whom have a better OBP than Werth’s abysmal .319 and three have more RBIs than Werth’s paultry output of 31. Tough to feel sorry for Pierce though, as Jennings could’ve been moved for a litany of quality offensive performers on the waiver wire throughout the year. The lack of timely moves with guys like Jennings, Garland, and Lyon may ultimately cause this team’s demise.
For Brandon, I think he recovered nicely from the last trade, though I should note (and agree with Dagan), this does not entirely make up for the losses that I believe were sustained. The 3rd round of 2011 was filled with quality performers – Feliz, Soria, Buchholz, Napoli, Romero, Nolasco, Markakis, Dempster, Morrow, and Timmy and Danny Hudson – with a few minor duds in Soto and Pagan (no, Jason, he was not a keeper). The round provided many teams with that second tier of starting pitchers that is of the utmost importance in this league. Casten is loaded with top picks and he will no doubt be yanking his crank after the draft in 2012 because the team will look, in his mind anyway, better than anyone else’s. There’s something to be said for that. Meanwhile, there were concerns with Werth going into the season, namely because he never performed until he was in that small park in Philly with a lineup that ensured he was going to see pitches to hit. Washington is a big park and Werth has never had the power that Dunn/Morse/RZimmerman types have displayed during their time in the Capital; meanwhile, that lineup is pretty awful. I really don’t think Werth turns it around, certainly not to the point where he is worth drafting in the 3rd round next year. And it doesn’t really hurt the Munchkins, as Casten has other, more useful outfielders on his roster. I still don’t know if he’s going for it or building for next year, but all in all, it was a good move.
In summary, the trade makes sense for both teams, which is the best kind of trade. Pierce took a shot at someone who has performed well in the past with the hope of an offensive turnaround and Casten continues to stockpile early draft picks.
Desmond Jennings, 3rd round pick, 10th round pick
Keepin it Real receive:
Jayson Werth, 13th round pick, 15th round pick
There’s a few different things going on in this trade, but the primary focus should really be the acquisition of a third rounder next year for Werth. Jennings may have some value come playoff time, but I don’t believe he’s the type of prospect that deserved being rostered for this long, nor should any competitive team continue to keep him as a bench player. The 10th and 13th rounds are not very different and the 15th is basically the beginning of the “take a shot” territory in the draft (in fact, there is only one player from the 15th round 2011 draft who is on the same team they were drafted by-- Billy Chapel’s Ryan Madson). For Peirce, it’s not a bad move to take a shot on a guy like Werth, who has woefully underperformed in his new surroundings. Keepin it Real has plummeted in the standings after being in first not long ago, thanks to four straight losses to tough opponents (Donkey, Montezuma, Prestige, Ring), which has more or less corresponded with his trade of MCabrera. This team still has the talent to take it all this year, but Pierce is in need of offense and Werth has shown an ability to provide that in the past and the trade didn’t impact the 2011 team. I still think he could stand to dilute his pitching staff in exchange for an offensive boost (a Pineda trade to a non-contender would make a lot of sense), but I applaud him for not giving up. Unfortunately, one of Werth’s assets is his base-stealing ability and that’s really not a need for Pierce, meanwhile there are four guys on the waiver wire who have more homers than Werth—three of whom have a better OBP than Werth’s abysmal .319 and three have more RBIs than Werth’s paultry output of 31. Tough to feel sorry for Pierce though, as Jennings could’ve been moved for a litany of quality offensive performers on the waiver wire throughout the year. The lack of timely moves with guys like Jennings, Garland, and Lyon may ultimately cause this team’s demise.
For Brandon, I think he recovered nicely from the last trade, though I should note (and agree with Dagan), this does not entirely make up for the losses that I believe were sustained. The 3rd round of 2011 was filled with quality performers – Feliz, Soria, Buchholz, Napoli, Romero, Nolasco, Markakis, Dempster, Morrow, and Timmy and Danny Hudson – with a few minor duds in Soto and Pagan (no, Jason, he was not a keeper). The round provided many teams with that second tier of starting pitchers that is of the utmost importance in this league. Casten is loaded with top picks and he will no doubt be yanking his crank after the draft in 2012 because the team will look, in his mind anyway, better than anyone else’s. There’s something to be said for that. Meanwhile, there were concerns with Werth going into the season, namely because he never performed until he was in that small park in Philly with a lineup that ensured he was going to see pitches to hit. Washington is a big park and Werth has never had the power that Dunn/Morse/RZimmerman types have displayed during their time in the Capital; meanwhile, that lineup is pretty awful. I really don’t think Werth turns it around, certainly not to the point where he is worth drafting in the 3rd round next year. And it doesn’t really hurt the Munchkins, as Casten has other, more useful outfielders on his roster. I still don’t know if he’s going for it or building for next year, but all in all, it was a good move.
In summary, the trade makes sense for both teams, which is the best kind of trade. Pierce took a shot at someone who has performed well in the past with the hope of an offensive turnaround and Casten continues to stockpile early draft picks.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Trade Review - Grumpy Munchkins and One Nut
Grumpy Munchkins receive:
Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick
One Nut receives:
Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick
As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.
For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.
Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.
Michael Morse, Jayson Werth, Dominic Brown, 9th round pick
One Nut receives:
Josh Johnson, James Shields, Colby Lewis, 16th round pick
As compelling of a trade as we’ve seen this season given that it’s clear both owners had specific concerns related to pitching or hitting. For Casten, he bought high on Morse, who has had a great season with 15 hr and 49 rbi in 271 abs and a tidy .351 obp; and he bought low on Werth, who is clearly at the lowest value point he has been since before he became a regular in Philly. Werth has great 30/30 upside, but the massive ballpark is proving to be an issue and that .315 obp is not in line with what he’s done in the past. He’s certainly not worth keeping if the current output continues. Meanwhile, Morse’s output so far is in line from a rate standpoint last year, but didn’t get the playing time. His current rate this season equates to a 75r/30hr/100rbi over 550 abs, making him part of a keeper discussion, but there’s no track record here to rely on and he’s already proven to be streaky. Dom Brown is talented but has shown he’s still out of place in the majors and it is doubtful he will have a second half that proves he’s a guy worth keeping for 2012. Meanwhile, the pick is pretty good but also one of those “hit or miss” rounds. In 2011, the round brought forth a number of gems, including Stauffer, Hanrahan, Kennedy, IDavis, and Beltran, along with flops like FFrancisco, Encarnacian, Uribe, Kubel, and Snider. The 22nd round featured upside BLeague, AGordon, Masterson, and Crisp but the crap was seriously stinky in this round – Maybin, DJenning, Magglio, Ackley (minors until two weeks ago), and Dice-K. For Grumpy, there’s seemingly a nice boost to the offense here, but it’s hard to follow the thought process since the areas addressed (1B and OF) was actually a strongpoint for the team, with Pujols/Cabrera, Cutch, Heyward, and Boesch. While RRoberts, Moutsakas, and the immortal S-Rod (Reyes injured) stink up the infield. Not to mention the losses sustained in the deal that brought JJ to Grumpy have been significant, with Aramis and Masterson both excelling. Tough to see how this makes the currently playoff-bound team much better.
For Jason, his team is much more balanced today than it was a few days ago and the offense really doesn’t look any worse for its wear. Snider was a smart pickup to fill in the bench/util spot. Shields has been nothing short of spectacular and One Nut got great value here, even if his track record shows regression is likely at some point this season. Lewis is a roller coaster, but when you look at his numbers, they seem just fine (96 k in 112 inning, 4.38/1.24 and 11 qs) for a mid-rotation type. Johnson is a big question mark for this season, but if he doesn’t come back until September, that’s still not so bad. At the very least, he’s trade bait for the offseason or a high risk keeper. A JJ/Morrow/Wandy/Latos/Shields fivesome would look pretty nice heading into the playoffs. And Jason maximizes value for Pick-Up of the Year Morse.
Overall, I thought Jason made out very well and the move makes his roster much more balanced, which I thought was the team’s biggest problem at the midway point. Meanwhile, I know Casten knows his stuff and he’s always been a bit of a loner when it comes to strategy, but without receiving clear, knock-it-of-the-park keeper or very high draft pick, he has a seriously depleted pitching staff and it doesn’t appear as though he’s setting himself up for the future or this season. The pick upgrade is nice, but not enough to make up for the loss of talent. Frankly, I think the trade would’ve been fair without including JJ, who could very well come back in the second half and be unstoppable again. At the very least, he would’ve been trade bait. I could be wrong and certainly Casten’s team has rebounded since my midpoint analysis, but, for now, chalk this one up in the win column for Jason.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Trade Review - Cowhide Joyride and Colon No Like Salad
Cowhide Joyride receives:
Prince Fielder, 5th round pick
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick
A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.
For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.
Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.
Prince Fielder, 5th round pick
Colon No Like Salad receives:
Josh Hamilton, Alexei Ramirez, 3rd round pick
A blockbuster that makes a lot of sense for both teams, as Dave has put up with Billy Butler as his first baseman long enough and Russ has had difficulty finding an OF to fit in next to CarGo and Stanton. The picks are more or less a wash since they're so close, especially given the gravity of talent involved. Hamilton had an unfortunate injury but has been otherwise productive. Alexei has been typical Alexei, a solid contributor in counting categories compared to others at the position, though he can run into frustrating cold streaks. For Russ, replacing the likes of WVeneble and AEscobar with Hamilton and Ramirez, while only downgrading from Prince to Gaby Sanchez at first, could be the cure to what ails this suprisingly struggling team that is a few more bad weeks from an insurmountable hole. In the end, Russ also doesn't lose much on a keeper perspective and one could argue Hamilton is better based on his position. There's still a chance for Colon to make a run here if Hughes comes back to life, Zambrano's stint on the DL is short, Colon comes back in full force and Oganda proves the last couple weeks were just a bump in the road - there's still eight weeks left. That Halladay/Kershaw/Gio trio has been one of the best in the league, so keep an eye on this team. Still needs an upgrade to the UTIL slots though, as Rolen/BWallace/Maybin/Chisenhall is less than ideal.
For Dave, his offense could become a monster providing his now thinner OF maintains productivity. Beltran has been excellent, LoMo has been decent but not great, Joyce has slowed down considerable and VWells is probably best left for the back up position. It wasn't an obvious position for Dave to trade away from, but Prince is a top shelf first baseman in a contract year and is a huge improvement at first. Butler is more of a UTIL type, which he now becomes; he and Reynolds will provide nice production from those spots. IF RZimmerman can get going, this offense could explode, which Dave needs because he's only just above Russ near the bottom of the standings.
Overall, I'd personally rather have the Prince side of the deal, since he's the better, younger, healthier player. But given his current spot in the standings and the overall value of Hamilton as a keeper, I can't fault Russ for taking a shot here and helping the team overall. Either way, these guys are sitting in the 13th and 12th spots in the standings with eight weeks to make a move, so it makes sense to shake things up.
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