Week 13 Real Rankings

NOTES
Is Kyle becoming the elite the team in the league? If you look at the output over the last four weeks, it's not even close. That Sale/Paxton/Snell combo has been tough to come up against, and guys like Mike Taylor, Jose Martinez, and Yogervis Solarte are making the difference in hitting. Will that continue? Hard to say, but he's cruising now.

LAST 4 WEEKS
1	The Angry Pirates	5.0
2	Montezuma's Revenge	6.4
3	Thor's Hammered	6.6
4	Sexual Napalm	6.8
5	Ring of Fire	6.9
6	Tomahawk chops	7.0
7	Brokeback Moundmen	7.0
8	Keep Off Groin	7.3
9	Moose is Loose!	7.5
10	Donkey Punchers	7.5
11	Take the Knebel	7.7
12	Anal Hershiser	7.8
13	One Nut Wonders	7.9
14	Cowhide Joyride	8.7

The league is doing a much better job controlling their rate of pickups. So far, only Chad is projected to go over the 60 transaction limit and it's only by 6. (Yes, even I am under!)

Taking a look at the top 25 over the past 30 days, there's a lot of guys bouncing back after slow starts and big investments:  Bregman, Goldy, Cruz, Altuve, Desmond, Carpenter, Hoskins, Bellinger. Then there's Max Muncy, which no one understands.

TOP 25 - LAST 30
1	Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B	Ring of Fire
2	Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS	Tomahawk chops
3	Chris Sale Bos - P	The Angry Pirates
4	Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B,OF	Moose is Loose!
5	Nelson Cruz Sea - OF	Tomahawk chops
6	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
7	Jose Altuve Hou - 2B	Cowhide Joyride
8	Francisco Lindor Cle - SS	Take the Knebel
9	Eddie Rosario Min - OF	Ring of Fire
10	Ian Desmond Col - 1B,OF	Montezuma's Revenge
11	Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B	One Nut Wonders
12	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
13	Luis Severino NYY - P	Keep Off Groin
14	Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF	Brokeback Moundmen
15	Andrew Benintendi Bos - OF	Thor's Hammered
16	Trevor Bauer Cle - P	Sexual Napalm
17	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B	Anal Hershiser
18	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS	Anal Hershiser
19	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
20	Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B	Tomahawk chops
21	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
22	Blake Snell TB - P	The Angry Pirates
23	Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF	Thor's Hammered
24	Jacob deGrom NYM - P	Thor's Hammered
25	Evan Gattis Hou - C	Brokeback Moundmen

TRADE REVIEWS

Cowhide receives:

Tom Murphy Col - C

Round 18

Tomahawk receives:

John Hicks Det - C,1B

Round 21

Pretty straight forward. Hicks is a sneaky C because he’s actually mildly productive 1B, so no worries about regular rest. The numbers aren’t huge (13 hr in 414 career abs, .310 obp), but neither was the compensation required, so good move by chad.

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Brokeback receives:      

Seth Lugo NYM - P

Round 15

Tomahawk receives:

Zack Wheeler NYM - P

Round 21

I don’t know. Six rounds seems like a lot for a 4.50 era and a high likelihood of an early end to his season.  Outside of a rough up in ATL, Wheeler was quite good  in June and has the potential for 7-9 K outings. The pitch velocity charts are everywhere this season, which makes me think he’s still working some things out. He’s got potential to be a great SP6 or so, but he’ll get roughed up from time to time and may be on waivers when you need him most, so 6 rounds seems like a bit more than I’d pay.

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Donkey receives:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tor - 3B NA

Mike Soroka Atl - P DL

Carlos Rodón CWS - P

Round 11

Tomahawk receives:

Nelson Cruz Sea - OF

Justin Verlander Hou - P

Round 23

I only just stopped screaming every time I saw this trade.  This is officially the worst trade in H&T history.  Sorry, Jed. But even if Vlad Jr. turns into Vlad Sr., this will be a horrible trade because of the lost opportunity cost.  All of those players Jed received wouldn’t have been enough for one of Cruz or Verlander.  People get enamored with prospects all the time, but the next one is right around the corner folks – nothing has changed.  I don’t doubt he’ll be a fine major leaguer at some point, but he’ll likely settle at 1B early in his career (lowering his value) and there’s an odd omission in all the reporting on how great he is:  32 HR in 877 minor league at bats.  He almost has that many SBs (26) and he’s not actually going to be allowed to steal in the majors as his minor league SB conversion rate is only 69%.  He doesn’t even have the most HR on his own team by the son of a former major league (Cavan Biggio – 16).

As far as compensation goes, by comparison, this isn’t that far off from what I gave up to get Mike Trout a couple seasons ago (Rizzo, Kluber, Miggy).  Even if Jed wasn’t planning on keeping Cruz or Verlander, they should’ve both been traded for 30 rounds of picks and a keeper. They are that valuable.  You can like Soroka and Rodon all you want, but there is a 0% percent chance either of them is kept next season. This is why you put out a call for last offers when you’re about to deal a superstar.  Chad must’ve borrowed some of Jason’s JEDi mind tricks or something because he made Jed his padawan. 

Week 12 Real Rankings

Week 11 Real Rankings

Week 10 Real Rankings

Trade Reviews

COWHIDE GETS

Jeff Samardzija SF - P DL

Round 13

Round 18

NAPALM GETS

Ross Stripling LAD - P

Round 22

Round 23

Those who aren’t paying attention may have looked at this trade and thought they missed something, and they may have. Stripling has been putting up ace-like numbers this season and the underlying numbers show it’s not a fluke.  That said, we’re talking about a guy who has bounced around between AAA and majors for a while. He went from 28 yo yo-yo player to an ace that warrants 14 rounds of draft picks. It’s a huge boon for Dave and a big risk for Gibby, but one that is worth taking.

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COWHIDE GETS

Round 20

MONTEZUMAS GETS

Trevor Cahill Oak - P DTD

Round 24

Low level trade for a mid-rotation arm. He’s solid when he’s healthy, but he’s suddenly not healthy again. The nice part about Cahill is he tends to not get blown up too often because of his high groundball tendencies, and when things are going right, he has the ability to put up a 10k complete game shutout. Will he be in the rotation at the end of the season? For four rounds late, it makes sense to try and find out.

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BROKEBACK GETS           

Harrison Bader StL - OF

Adam Duvall Cin - OF

Round 14

Round 15

ANGRY GETS

Kenta Maeda LAD - P DL

C.J. Cron TB - 1B

Round 17

Round 20

This is a great get by Kyle because he took the DL stint and grabbed a discount on an SP that could be a big contributor. Maeda is worth much more than 8 rounds by himself when healthy, so Watson might have benefited from being more patient. I have little faith in CJ Cron suddenly becoming a top 20 fantasy 1B, but he’s certainly showing he warrants greater usage than he got in LAA. And what the heck happened to Adam Duvall? Anyhow, Kyle for the big win here.

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ANAL GETS

Sean Doolittle Was - P

Travis Shaw Mil - 3B

Ender Inciarte Atl - OF

DONKEY GETS

Matt Chapman Oak - 3B DTD

Dylan Bundy Bal - P

Jeremy Hellickson Was - P DL

I actually like this one a lot for Jed. Shaw maybe overlooked again as an elite 3B and Inciarte is perpetually underated, but I really like Chapman as a long-term piece and a potential keeper while Bundy has the tantalizing talent to warrant keeper consideration as an SP. Bundy is a strange one because he is absurdly streaky for a pitcher, but it’s hard to argue with a 14.1% SwSTR!!! While I think Shaw is definitely a keeper moving forward, I like the upside of Jed’s return.  Justin meanwhile fills big holes and rids himself of some inconsistent play. This trade was a good one and made even better by the fact that it was strictly players for players – a rarity these days.

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ONE NUT GETS 

Jake Arrieta Phi - P

Round 21

DONKEY GETS   

Julio Urías LAD - P

Round 12

This is stupid. Ugh. Nine rounds for a top 20 SP? This is one of those cases where people need to tell Jason no and just pose the player to the entire league. I pray to god no value was attached to Urias in this deal…

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COWHIDE GETS

David Dahl Col - OF DL

Round 13

MONTEZUMAS GETS

Buster Posey SF - C,1B

Round 20

This makes sense, but represents an end to one of the longest running player/manager relationships in H&T history.  I believe only Pierce’s infatuation with David Wright lasted longer. Posey’s days as a keeper are numbered, and one could argue they were numbered a few years ago. The days of Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez are over and the best hitters are getting moved off the position early on. This is Posey’s value at this point, and it makes sense for a team like the Revenge that are in need of OBP help. Good trade.

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DONKEY GETS

Wil Myers SD - 1B,OF DL

Round 11

Round 14

Round 16

NAPALM GETS

Gerrit Cole Hou - P

Round 18

Round 22

Round 24

That’s 23 rounds and a brittle 1B who shouldn’t be an OF for a leading Cy Young candidates. It’s a pretty good return if you consider Myers a potential keeper again. It’s hard to look past the prolonged injury history, but there’s so few players capabale of 20/20 and much more.  Meanwhile, we’ve just never seen a Gerrit Cole like we’ve seen this Gerrit Cole. Could this be the new reality brought on by Houston’s masterful pitching approach or is it a fluky hot streak from a talented former top prospect? Either way, I like the return for Jed and the bold move by Gibby, who suddenly makes his whole roster look a lot better.

Week 8 & 9 Real Rankings

NOTES

The Real Rankings and Actual Standings are starting to get closer and closer. If you look at the +/- column, you'll see 11 of the 14 teams in the league are within two spots of their place in the Actual Standings.  Still a lot of fluctuation from week to week but a few teams have shown remarkable consistency.

Trading season has officially begun!   Looks like Jed and Dave are looking to next year.  These were the teams that sold off the most at the trade deadline last year, so something to think about as we move forward. It would behoove anyone selling to let everyone know when it is official and who is the best candidates to choose from.

We are nearly at the halfway point and teams are doing a much better job reigning in their transactions. Given the natural slowdown in transactions as the year goes on, it looks like everyone is pretty safe at this point.

Always like to highlight when a long-time player's fantasy career ends on a team. In a game that is so fluid and injuries are so frequent, it is very rare for players to spend more than 4-5 years on one team.  This week, we saw Buster Posey say goodbye to a team he has spent most of his career with.  Posey was acquired by Cowhide Joyride (with Derek Holland and a 11th and 15th) from Montezumas' on July 30, 2011 (for Josh Beckett, Carlos Beltran, and a 22nd, 21st) and spent 7 years with Dave.  Now that he is with Montezuma's again, he will have spent 9 seasons with only two teams!  Posey was originally added by Montezuma's on May 29, 2010. Congratulations, Buster - it was quite a run.

While I was scoping for the Posey info, I uncovered this gem from 2011. Just for anyone looking to give me credit on being able to see real talent. (I also swapped him for Ian Stewart in a league I was in at the time). Glad we go reunited.

Here's the updated Top 25. Remarkably, 21 of the 25 were kept - usually there are quite a few more emergers, but looks like the league did a pretty good job selecting keepers. Only Albies, Hader (not really a top 25 in our league), Baez, and Snell were drafted.

1	Mike Trout LAA - OF	Montezuma's Revenge
2	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
3	Justin Verlander Hou - P	Donkey Punchers
4	José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B	The Angry Pirates
5	Bryce Harper Was - OF	Thor's Hammered
6	Aaron Judge NYY - OF	Moose is Loose!
7	Max Scherzer Was - P	Montezuma's Revenge
8	Gerrit Cole Hou - P	Sexual Napalm
9	J.D. Martinez Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
10	Corey Kluber Cle - P	One Nut Wonders
11	Andrew Benintendi Bos - OF	Thor's Hammered
12	Manny Machado Bal - 3B,SS	Sexual Napalm
13	Francisco Lindor Cle - SS	Take the Knebel
14	Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B,3B	Tomahawk chops
15	Luis Severino NYY - P	Keep Off Groin
16	George Springer Hou - OF	Anal Hershiser
17	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B	Anal Hershiser
18	Josh Hader Mil - P	Tomahawk chops
19	Jacob deGrom NYM - P	Thor's Hammered
20	Ozzie Albies Atl - 2B	Tomahawk chops
21	Charlie Blackmon Col - OF	Take the Knebel
22	Jean Segura Sea - SS	Keep Off Groin
23	Javier Báez ChC - 2B,SS	Anal Hershiser
24	Blake Snell TB - P	The Angry Pirates
25	Aaron Nola Phi - P	Montezuma's Revenge

Week 7 Real Rankings/Trade Review

NOTES
We're 1/3 of the way through the season, which is a good time to start assessing where you're at and what you plan to do moving forward.

The recent trade between Jeff and Jason is an interesting one. Chatwood and Carpenter have been major disappointments while Jon Gray has done his typical flash of brilliance followed by stretches of suckdom. At this point in the season, it's perfectly reasonable to assess a player and what they will produce.  However, there's still time to overcome underperformance, so it's not set in stone. But Carp is projecting at 59/14/59/0/.323 and Chatwood at 3.70/1.62 with 150 K, while Gray is at 5.33/1.39 but with 209 K and the key difference is Chatwood is getting lucky 5.35 xFIP while Gray is decidedly unlucky at 2.94 xFIP.  Chatwood and Carpenter may very well turn it around and Carp has been better as of later, but at this point, there was no reason to give up on a solid SP4 with SP2 upside to get them. Jeff wins this one by a big margin.

Like Judge and Bellinger last year, Ozzie Albies has come up and shown the bigs really aren't THAT hard. Meanwhile, 19 year-olds like Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto are sprinting through minor league systems in one season -- both have now done the Low A to Majors route in one season or less. It's a young man's sport and identifying the right one can mean the difference between being a good team and a great one.

Speaking of great teams, Thor and Tomohawk have shown remarkable consistency, both with volatility in the 0.5 range. That's really difficult to do 7 weeks into the season, particularly when you consider Chad has the 4th best hitting and 4th best pitching.

Meanwhile, consistency isn't such a great thing when you're in the bottom. With VARs in the 1.5 range, Brokeback and Donkey should perhaps start considering making some changes. Meanwhile, Cowhide is really feeling the strain of a tough draftboard.

There's a lot of stars in the top 25 this year. Mostly keepers, Ozzie, two young RPs, a guy who was dropped by a moron, Haniger, Story, and a surprising Morton.

1 Mookie Betts Bos - OF  Sexual Napalm
2 Mike Trout LAA - OF  Montezuma's Revenge
3 Justin Verlander Hou - P  Donkey Punchers
4 Bryce Harper Was - OF  Thor's Hammered
5 Gerrit Cole Hou - P  Donkey Punchers
6 Max Scherzer Was - P  Montezuma's Revenge
7 Ozzie Albies Atl - 2B Tomahawk chops
8 Aaron Judge NYY - OF  Moose is Loose!
9 Manny Machado Bal - 3B,SS  Sexual Napalm
10 José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B  The Angry Pirates
11 Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B,3B  Tomahawk chops
12 J.D. Martinez Bos - OF  Sexual Napalm
13 Chris Sale Bos - P  The Angry Pirates
14 Francisco Lindor Cle - SS  Take the Knebel
15 Corey Kluber Cle - P  One Nut Wonders
16 Josh Hader Mil - P Tomahawk chops
17 Charlie Blackmon Col - OF  Take the Knebel
18 Tommy Pham StL - OF  Take the Knebel
19 A.J. Pollock Ari - OF  Brokeback Moundmen
20 Brandon Belt SF - 1B,OF Anal Hershiser
21 Mitch Haniger Sea - OF Thor's Hammered
22 Trevor Story Col - SS Ring of Fire
23 Charlie Morton Hou - P Tomahawk chops
24 Adam Ottavino Col - P Cowhide Joyride