Monday, July 2, 2018

Week 13 Real Rankings



NOTES
Is Kyle becoming the elite the team in the league? If you look at the output over the last four weeks, it's not even close. That Sale/Paxton/Snell combo has been tough to come up against, and guys like Mike Taylor, Jose Martinez, and Yogervis Solarte are making the difference in hitting. Will that continue? Hard to say, but he's cruising now.

LAST 4 WEEKS
1The Angry Pirates5.0
2Montezuma's Revenge6.4
3Thor's Hammered6.6
4Sexual Napalm6.8
5Ring of Fire6.9
6Tomahawk chops7.0
7Brokeback Moundmen7.0
8Keep Off Groin7.3
9Moose is Loose!7.5
10Donkey Punchers7.5
11Take the Knebel7.7
12Anal Hershiser7.8
13One Nut Wonders7.9
14Cowhide Joyride8.7

The league is doing a much better job controlling their rate of pickups. So far, only Chad is projected to go over the 60 transaction limit and it's only by 6. (Yes, even I am under!)

Taking a look at the top 25 over the past 30 days, there's a lot of guys bouncing back after slow starts and big investments:  Bregman, Goldy, Cruz, Altuve, Desmond, Carpenter, Hoskins, Bellinger. Then there's Max Muncy, which no one understands.

TOP 25 - LAST 30
1
Paul Goldschmidt Ari - 1B 
Ring of Fire
2
Alex Bregman Hou - 3B,SS 
Tomahawk chops
3
Chris Sale Bos - P 
The Angry Pirates
4
Max Muncy LAD - 1B,2B,3B,OF
Moose is Loose!
5
Nelson Cruz Sea - OF 
Tomahawk chops
6
José Ramírez Cle - 2B,3B 
The Angry Pirates
7
Jose Altuve Hou - 2B 
Cowhide Joyride
8
Francisco Lindor Cle - SS 
Take the Knebel
9
Eddie Rosario Min - OF
Ring of Fire
10
Ian Desmond Col - 1B,OF
Montezuma's Revenge
11
Matt Carpenter StL - 1B,2B,3B
One Nut Wonders
12
J.D. Martinez Bos - OF 
Sexual Napalm
13
Luis Severino NYY - P 
Keep Off Groin
14
Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B,OF 
Brokeback Moundmen
15
Andrew Benintendi Bos - OF 
Thor's Hammered
16
Trevor Bauer Cle - P
Sexual Napalm
17
Nolan Arenado Col - 3B 
Anal Hershiser
18
Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS
Anal Hershiser
19
Mike Trout LAA - OF 
Montezuma's Revenge
20
Jesús Aguilar Mil - 1B
Tomahawk chops
21
Max Scherzer Was - P 
Montezuma's Revenge
22
Blake Snell TB - P
The Angry Pirates
23
Cody Bellinger LAD - 1B,OF 
Thor's Hammered
24
Jacob deGrom NYM - P 
Thor's Hammered
25
Evan Gattis Hou - C
Brokeback Moundmen


TRADE REVIEWS
Cowhide receives:
Tom Murphy Col - C
Round 18

Tomahawk receives:
John Hicks Det - C,1B
Round 21

Pretty straight forward. Hicks is a sneaky C because he’s actually mildly productive 1B, so no worries about regular rest. The numbers aren’t huge (13 hr in 414 career abs, .310 obp), but neither was the compensation required, so good move by chad.
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Brokeback receives:      
Seth Lugo NYM - P
Round 15

Tomahawk receives:
Zack Wheeler NYM - P
Round 21

I don’t know. Six rounds seems like a lot for a 4.50 era and a high likelihood of an early end to his season.  Outside of a rough up in ATL, Wheeler was quite good  in June and has the potential for 7-9 K outings. The pitch velocity charts are everywhere this season, which makes me think he’s still working some things out. He’s got potential to be a great SP6 or so, but he’ll get roughed up from time to time and may be on waivers when you need him most, so 6 rounds seems like a bit more than I’d pay.

--
Donkey receives:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tor - 3B NA
Mike Soroka Atl - P DL
Carlos Rodón CWS - P
Round 11

Tomahawk receives:
Nelson Cruz Sea - OF
Justin Verlander Hou - P
Round 23

I only just stopped screaming every time I saw this trade.  This is officially the worst trade in H&T history.  Sorry, Jed. But even if Vlad Jr. turns into Vlad Sr., this will be a horrible trade because of the lost opportunity cost.  All of those players Jed received wouldn’t have been enough for one of Cruz or Verlander.  People get enamored with prospects all the time, but the next one is right around the corner folks – nothing has changed.  I don’t doubt he’ll be a fine major leaguer at some point, but he’ll likely settle at 1B early in his career (lowering his value) and there’s an odd omission in all the reporting on how great he is:  32 HR in 877 minor league at bats.  He almost has that many SBs (26) and he’s not actually going to be allowed to steal in the majors as his minor league SB conversion rate is only 69%.  He doesn’t even have the most HR on his own team by the son of a former major league (Cavan Biggio – 16).


As far as compensation goes, by comparison, this isn’t that far off from what I gave up to get Mike Trout a couple seasons ago (Rizzo, Kluber, Miggy).  Even if Jed wasn’t planning on keeping Cruz or Verlander, they should’ve both been traded for 30 rounds of picks and a keeper. They are that valuable.  You can like Soroka and Rodon all you want, but there is a 0% percent chance either of them is kept next season. This is why you put out a call for last offers when you’re about to deal a superstar.  Chad must’ve borrowed some of Jason’s JEDi mind tricks or something because he made Jed his padawan. 



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