Biography
• First Name:Russ
• Team: Clayton & The King
• Location: Naugatuck, CT
• Age: 29.4
• Years in High & Tight: I believe since it started
• Education: B.A.’s in Economics and American Studies from Brandeis, J.D. from Quinnipiac Law
• Major(s)/Focus:
• Occupation: Attorney / Degenerate Gambler
• Favorite MLB team:Yankees
• Favorite MLB player currently: Derek Jeter
• Favorite MLB player as child: I don’t know, Griffey or The Big Hurt probably
• Highest level of experience playing baseball: D3 NCAA at Brandeis, I sucked though
• Why did you choose the team name you have? How many times has it changed? Because I love stud pitchers and I think I have the best pitcher in both the AL and the NL. Team name has changed a million times, amongst my favorites are Blow up Fenway, Lincecum on Some Ts and Colon No Like Salad
Players
1. All-time, who were the top five players that were the most enjoyable to have on your team? Cano, Cargo in his breakout year, Pujols before I traded him to Casten, Lincecum, Kershaw – I can’t remember any of the guys from the earlier years because I have short term memory loss
2. Have you grown a deep hatred for any player due to their past fantasy performance? No, if somebody sucks its my own fault for not putting them in a position to succeed
3. What one player do you wish you had on your roster right now? Eric Hosmer
4. What player will never be on your roster (not due their status as a keeper for another team)? Josh Becket
5. Which player on your current roster are you least likely to trade? Cano
6. What is your all-time best transaction (draft pick/trade/free agent pick-up)? Picking up Kershaw off the waiver wire (pretty sure that’s where I got him)
7. What is your all-time worst transaction (draft pick/ trade/free agent pick-up)? I traded Cliff Lee to Lars for Chase Headley the year Lee went like 22-3
8. Any players you find yourself gravitating toward, despite their being largely unpopular? No I pretty much follow the crowd
9. Who is the worst keeper you’ve ever kept? I’ve never
had a bad keeper
10. Who is the best sleeper on your team currently? Alejandro De Aza
League
11. How were you introduced to the league? How do you know Lars? Lars asked me in – I met him in college where we played baseball together and shared a love for alcohol and pot
12. How many current owners did you know prior to joining the league? Which ones? Just Larry, but I think I might have played cards with Casten once in college
13. Who would you say is your biggest rival in High & Tight? If none, who would you most enjoy pulverizing? I don’t think I have one but definitely want to beat Casten the most because he seems really arrogant
14. Who is your favorite trade partner? Who is your least favorite? I don’t think I have a favorite but I hate dealing with Lars because I’ve been trying to get Longoria for 4 years now and he won’t budge, I hate dealing with Jason for obvious reasons and I hate dealing with Casten because he overvalues the shit out of his players (see Ramirez, Hanley, who by the way stinks again this year)
15. What is your initial reaction when you see you’ve received a trade offer from Jason? Why is this penis insulting my intelligence?
16. Anything you’d like other owners to know about your interaction with the league? (examples: “I check my email/league site at lunch time,” “I often travel and don’t have access to the internet,” “Your odds of executing a trade with me go up considerably if you send me a picture of Scarlet Johansson posing provocatively,” etc.)? I value pitching
17. How would you describe your pre-draft preparation? I highlighted the keepers and some potential targets and then just went by feel
18. How often do you go on the H&T website/blog per day? Morning to set lineup, maybe once in middle of day if I see a headline that affects my team, leave stat tracker up most nights except during masturbation because it slows the old Dell down
19. What is the weirdest place/situation you’ve checked your lineup? funeral
20. If you could make one change to the league, what would it be? None I think its splendid
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Manager Profile: Dave
Biography
· First Name: Dave
· Team: Cowhide Joyride
· Location: South Berwick, ME
· Age: Thirty Duece
· Years in High & Tight: 8? Since the start
· Education: Associates Degree in Digital Media - Returning to finish my bachelors in History @ SNHU
· Major(s)/Focus:
· Occupation: Production Manager at Infinite Imaging
· Favorite MLB team: Boston Red Sox
· Favorite MLB player currently: Lester
· Favorite MLB player as child: The Big Hurt
· Highest level of experience playing baseball: Men's Slow Pitch Softball! - Senior League
· Why did you choose the team name you have? How many times has it changed? Heard it on SportsCenter ... 3-4 name changes. Teddy Ballgame, City of Champions (followed by City of Chumpions after my team sucked), The Big Schill, No Glove No Love (was that in this league?)
Players
1. All-time, who were the top five players that were the most enjoyable to have on your team? Grady Sizemore (before he got hurt), Pedro Martinez, Morgan Ensberg (that played a big part in my championship year!), Pedroia, Prince Fielder!
2. Have you grown a deep hatred for any player due to their past fantasy performance? Jason ... oh wait ... you mean baseball player ... only yankees
3. What one player do you wish you had on your roster right now? Babe Ruth
4. What player will never be on your roster (not due their status as a keeper for another team)? none
5. Which player on your current roster are you least likely to trade? Prince
6. What is your all-time best transaction (draft pick/trade/free agent pick-up)? Morgan Ensberg off of waivers!
7. What is your all-time worst transaction (draft pick/ trade/free agent pick-up)? I should have drafted Markakis this year the round I drafted Carpenter ... odds are I could have had them both!
8. Any players you find yourself gravitating toward, despite their being largely unpopular? Rickie Weeks
9. Who is the worst keeper you’ve ever kept? Whichever closer I had to keep that one year.
10. Who is the best sleeper on your team currently? Yeonis
League
11. How were you introduced to the league? How do you know Lars? I'm guessing Adam/Casten had told Lars I would probably be interested ... didn't really know Lars other then we both went to WHS.
12. How many current owners did you know prior to joining the league? Which ones? Casten, Cole, Troy, Lars, Adam (I think that's it)
13. Who would you say is your biggest rival in High & Tight? If none, who would you most enjoy pulverizing? Jason ... his trade offers piss me right the fuck off
14. Who is your favorite trade partner? Who is your least favorite? Favorite - Brian (Moose) ... Least - Jason
15. What is your initial reaction when you see you’ve received a trade offer from Jason? FUUUUUUUUUUUUCK NO
16. Anything you’d like other owners to know about your interaction with the league? (examples: “I check my email/league site at lunch time,” “I often travel and don’t have access to the internet,” “Your odds of executing a trade with me go up considerably if you send me a picture of Scarlet Johansson posing provocatively,” etc.)? Everybody at work thinks I am adding shit to the print queue right now ... but I'm filling this out and checking out my stats
17. How would you describe your pre-draft preparation? on a scale of 1 - ADAM ... I am at a 4-5.
18. How often do you go on the H&T website/blog per day? too much
19. What is the weirdest place/situation you’ve checked your lineup? church ... what ... I forgot to start a guy!
20. If you could make one change to the league, what would it be? draft pick trades limited
· First Name: Dave
· Team: Cowhide Joyride
· Location: South Berwick, ME
· Age: Thirty Duece
· Years in High & Tight: 8? Since the start
· Education: Associates Degree in Digital Media - Returning to finish my bachelors in History @ SNHU
· Major(s)/Focus:
· Occupation: Production Manager at Infinite Imaging
· Favorite MLB team: Boston Red Sox
· Favorite MLB player currently: Lester
· Favorite MLB player as child: The Big Hurt
· Highest level of experience playing baseball: Men's Slow Pitch Softball! - Senior League
· Why did you choose the team name you have? How many times has it changed? Heard it on SportsCenter ... 3-4 name changes. Teddy Ballgame, City of Champions (followed by City of Chumpions after my team sucked), The Big Schill, No Glove No Love (was that in this league?)
Players
1. All-time, who were the top five players that were the most enjoyable to have on your team? Grady Sizemore (before he got hurt), Pedro Martinez, Morgan Ensberg (that played a big part in my championship year!), Pedroia, Prince Fielder!
2. Have you grown a deep hatred for any player due to their past fantasy performance? Jason ... oh wait ... you mean baseball player ... only yankees
3. What one player do you wish you had on your roster right now? Babe Ruth
4. What player will never be on your roster (not due their status as a keeper for another team)? none
5. Which player on your current roster are you least likely to trade? Prince
6. What is your all-time best transaction (draft pick/trade/free agent pick-up)? Morgan Ensberg off of waivers!
7. What is your all-time worst transaction (draft pick/ trade/free agent pick-up)? I should have drafted Markakis this year the round I drafted Carpenter ... odds are I could have had them both!
8. Any players you find yourself gravitating toward, despite their being largely unpopular? Rickie Weeks
9. Who is the worst keeper you’ve ever kept? Whichever closer I had to keep that one year.
10. Who is the best sleeper on your team currently? Yeonis
League
11. How were you introduced to the league? How do you know Lars? I'm guessing Adam/Casten had told Lars I would probably be interested ... didn't really know Lars other then we both went to WHS.
12. How many current owners did you know prior to joining the league? Which ones? Casten, Cole, Troy, Lars, Adam (I think that's it)
13. Who would you say is your biggest rival in High & Tight? If none, who would you most enjoy pulverizing? Jason ... his trade offers piss me right the fuck off
14. Who is your favorite trade partner? Who is your least favorite? Favorite - Brian (Moose) ... Least - Jason
15. What is your initial reaction when you see you’ve received a trade offer from Jason? FUUUUUUUUUUUUCK NO
16. Anything you’d like other owners to know about your interaction with the league? (examples: “I check my email/league site at lunch time,” “I often travel and don’t have access to the internet,” “Your odds of executing a trade with me go up considerably if you send me a picture of Scarlet Johansson posing provocatively,” etc.)? Everybody at work thinks I am adding shit to the print queue right now ... but I'm filling this out and checking out my stats
17. How would you describe your pre-draft preparation? on a scale of 1 - ADAM ... I am at a 4-5.
18. How often do you go on the H&T website/blog per day? too much
19. What is the weirdest place/situation you’ve checked your lineup? church ... what ... I forgot to start a guy!
20. If you could make one change to the league, what would it be? draft pick trades limited
Manager Profile: Adam
Biography
• Name: Adam
• Team: Montezuma’s Revenge
• Location: North Berwick, ME
• Age: 30
• Years in High & Tight: Seven
• Education: Bachelors - UConn
• Major(s)/Focus: English and Journalism
• Occupation: Marketing Specialist for an investment consultant
• Favorite MLB team: Red Sox
• Favorite MLB player currently: Dustin Pedroia
• Favorite MLB player as child: Frank Thomas
• Highest level of experience playing baseball: Varsity High School (backup 1B)
• Why did you choose the team name you have? How many times has it changed? It was originally “Baby on Board” because my first son AJ was on the way. Then it changed to AJ’s Revenge after I lost to Dagan in the championship by way of the ERA tiebreaker. After a rather crappy season, I changed it to Montezuma’s Revenge at the end of the year as a joke because my team was so shitty. But it grew on me and stuck.
Players
1. Which player was the all-time most enjoyable to have on your team? I’d say it was probably Hanley before I traded him back to Casten. I had him in most of his really good years. Close second was Manny, who was my first pick ever taken and stayed on my team for four years--additional appeal for being on the Sox, then probably Halladay.
2. Have you grown a deep hatred for any player due to their past fantasy performance? I tend not to hold grudges, but Adam Dunn tested my patience last year. Gordon Beckham was another former keeper I thought would be good.
3. What one player do you wish you had on your roster right now? Tulo. You just don’t get that type of production from the SS position anymore.
4. What player will never be on your roster (not due their status as a keeper for another team)? I wouldn’t rule out anyone, but Ichiro is pretty close. Just don’t see the value in an OBP league.
5. Which player on your current roster are you least likely to trade? Everyone has a price, but probably Hosmer because his ceiling is so high but he’s not there yet. CSantana, JUpton and Lawrie would be difficult to get too because they haven’t quite met their potential.
6. What is your all-time best transaction (draft pick/trade/free agent pick-up)? I always like mentioning how I traded Casten JReyes for Hanley and a very effective at the time Brandon Webb. Dropping IStewart for Hosmer last year was good too. But the best was probably trading Manny to Kyle in 2009 two weeks before he got suspended for PEDs. Ended up getting a bunch of guys who helped me, including Raul Ibanez’s incredible year.
7. What is your all-time worst transaction (draft pick/ trade/free agent pick-up)? There’s been a lot, but PAlvarez in the first round last year was quite bad.
8. Any players you find yourself gravitating toward, despite their being largely unpopular? I always seem to forgive Chone Figgins.
9. Who is the worst keeper you’ve ever kept? Ultimately GBeckham is probably the winner here. I kept Mark Buehrle once too; he was good then, but it’s still embarrassing.
10. Who is the best sleeper on your team currently? I liked Samardzija before the season started and picked him up before his first start. Think he has high K upside. Scutaro could also be valuable.
League
11. How were you introduced to the league? How do you know Lars? I was one of the originals. Knew Lars from high school.
12. How many current owners did you know prior to joining the league? Which ones? Dave was in my wedding party, so he’s a long-time friend. Casten and Lars were in the grade below me, and Casten foolishly always thought he knew more about sports than I did. Pierce was a couple grades above. I knew of Troy since he and my dad are local businessmen, but hadn’t really interacted with him until the league.
13. Who would you say is your biggest rival in High & Tight? If none, who would you most enjoy pulverizing? Probably Dagan, since I’ve lost to him a couple times in the championships. I may not be his biggest rival since he beats me every time, but I still own the top all-time record! I also thoroughly enjoy beating Dave. Jason is my rival as far as total transactions in a given year.
14. Who is your favorite trade partner? Who is your least favorite? Chris and Dave are pretty level-headed and to the point when we discuss trades, so I’d go with them for favorite. Jason is probably the least because he low balls and tries to convince me they’re good. Casten may be most frustrating, but I think that’s because we value the same types of players.
15. What is your initial reaction when you see you’ve received a trade offer from Jason? Reject - I pretty much always know I’m not going to accept the first rendition.
16. Anything you’d like other owners to know about your interaction with the league (examples: “I check my email/league site at lunch time,” “I often travel and don’t have access to the internet,” “Your odds of executing a trade with me go up considerably if you send me a picture of Scarlet Johansson posing provocatively,” etc.)? I will almost always counter a trade offer. If I don’t, you know it was really off base.
17. How would you describe your pre-draft preparation? Intricate, possible overboard. Lots of Excel spreadsheets and data.
18. How often do you go on the H&T website/blog per day? Six or so. Set the lineup in the morning, check the transactions mid-day. Monitor the box scores constantly at night.
19. What is the weirdest place/situation you’ve checked your lineup? The shitter.
20. If you could make one change to the league, what would it be? I would require all managers to respond to trade offers within 24 hours or they get fined $300, which is then dedicated to a separate fund for the league scribe.
• Name: Adam
• Team: Montezuma’s Revenge
• Location: North Berwick, ME
• Age: 30
• Years in High & Tight: Seven
• Education: Bachelors - UConn
• Major(s)/Focus: English and Journalism
• Occupation: Marketing Specialist for an investment consultant
• Favorite MLB team: Red Sox
• Favorite MLB player currently: Dustin Pedroia
• Favorite MLB player as child: Frank Thomas
• Highest level of experience playing baseball: Varsity High School (backup 1B)
• Why did you choose the team name you have? How many times has it changed? It was originally “Baby on Board” because my first son AJ was on the way. Then it changed to AJ’s Revenge after I lost to Dagan in the championship by way of the ERA tiebreaker. After a rather crappy season, I changed it to Montezuma’s Revenge at the end of the year as a joke because my team was so shitty. But it grew on me and stuck.
Players
1. Which player was the all-time most enjoyable to have on your team? I’d say it was probably Hanley before I traded him back to Casten. I had him in most of his really good years. Close second was Manny, who was my first pick ever taken and stayed on my team for four years--additional appeal for being on the Sox, then probably Halladay.
2. Have you grown a deep hatred for any player due to their past fantasy performance? I tend not to hold grudges, but Adam Dunn tested my patience last year. Gordon Beckham was another former keeper I thought would be good.
3. What one player do you wish you had on your roster right now? Tulo. You just don’t get that type of production from the SS position anymore.
4. What player will never be on your roster (not due their status as a keeper for another team)? I wouldn’t rule out anyone, but Ichiro is pretty close. Just don’t see the value in an OBP league.
5. Which player on your current roster are you least likely to trade? Everyone has a price, but probably Hosmer because his ceiling is so high but he’s not there yet. CSantana, JUpton and Lawrie would be difficult to get too because they haven’t quite met their potential.
6. What is your all-time best transaction (draft pick/trade/free agent pick-up)? I always like mentioning how I traded Casten JReyes for Hanley and a very effective at the time Brandon Webb. Dropping IStewart for Hosmer last year was good too. But the best was probably trading Manny to Kyle in 2009 two weeks before he got suspended for PEDs. Ended up getting a bunch of guys who helped me, including Raul Ibanez’s incredible year.
7. What is your all-time worst transaction (draft pick/ trade/free agent pick-up)? There’s been a lot, but PAlvarez in the first round last year was quite bad.
8. Any players you find yourself gravitating toward, despite their being largely unpopular? I always seem to forgive Chone Figgins.
9. Who is the worst keeper you’ve ever kept? Ultimately GBeckham is probably the winner here. I kept Mark Buehrle once too; he was good then, but it’s still embarrassing.
10. Who is the best sleeper on your team currently? I liked Samardzija before the season started and picked him up before his first start. Think he has high K upside. Scutaro could also be valuable.
League
11. How were you introduced to the league? How do you know Lars? I was one of the originals. Knew Lars from high school.
12. How many current owners did you know prior to joining the league? Which ones? Dave was in my wedding party, so he’s a long-time friend. Casten and Lars were in the grade below me, and Casten foolishly always thought he knew more about sports than I did. Pierce was a couple grades above. I knew of Troy since he and my dad are local businessmen, but hadn’t really interacted with him until the league.
13. Who would you say is your biggest rival in High & Tight? If none, who would you most enjoy pulverizing? Probably Dagan, since I’ve lost to him a couple times in the championships. I may not be his biggest rival since he beats me every time, but I still own the top all-time record! I also thoroughly enjoy beating Dave. Jason is my rival as far as total transactions in a given year.
14. Who is your favorite trade partner? Who is your least favorite? Chris and Dave are pretty level-headed and to the point when we discuss trades, so I’d go with them for favorite. Jason is probably the least because he low balls and tries to convince me they’re good. Casten may be most frustrating, but I think that’s because we value the same types of players.
15. What is your initial reaction when you see you’ve received a trade offer from Jason? Reject - I pretty much always know I’m not going to accept the first rendition.
16. Anything you’d like other owners to know about your interaction with the league (examples: “I check my email/league site at lunch time,” “I often travel and don’t have access to the internet,” “Your odds of executing a trade with me go up considerably if you send me a picture of Scarlet Johansson posing provocatively,” etc.)? I will almost always counter a trade offer. If I don’t, you know it was really off base.
17. How would you describe your pre-draft preparation? Intricate, possible overboard. Lots of Excel spreadsheets and data.
18. How often do you go on the H&T website/blog per day? Six or so. Set the lineup in the morning, check the transactions mid-day. Monitor the box scores constantly at night.
19. What is the weirdest place/situation you’ve checked your lineup? The shitter.
20. If you could make one change to the league, what would it be? I would require all managers to respond to trade offers within 24 hours or they get fined $300, which is then dedicated to a separate fund for the league scribe.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Week 2 Power Ranking
1. Grumpy Munchkins -- .650 (previous week: 1)
Despite the 6-3-1, Casten maintains the top position with a smashing week (9 HR, .400 OBP), sweeping the offensive categories from Donkey. He also had an excellent pitching week, tied for the most QS, 2nd most Ks and a 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but he couldn’t beat out Chris’s impressive pitching line and the final record doesn’t quite reflect how well his team did. A few stinkers from the pitching staff spoiled his party, but the starts of Dunn, Niese, and Hart should be encouraging.
2. Clayton & The King -- .900 (previous: 2)
When you look at the totals for the week and compare to Grumpy, this is a good example of how records are not exactly representative of quality. Russ didn’t really have a good week; offense was mediocre (18/6/19/0/.319) and pitching was just OK (4.67 ERA won’t get you a win most weeks). But Kyle’s team was just awful, so Russ escapes with a blowout despite Clayton’s sickness and the King’s underperformance.
3. Moose is Loose -- .650 (previous: 3)
Solid week all around for Brian, with some heartening starts from Beltran and Markakis fueling the offense. He also gets credit for cutting losses with VMart and gaining a fifth closer now that it appears Rodney will take it for TB. The news doesn’t sound good on Baker coming off the DL soon and Kuroda and ESantana stunk it up, but good to see Danks and Ubaldo with good outings. After bouncing Dave, he’s got another tough matchup with Brandon this week.
4. Ring of Fire -- .600 (previous: 4)
Without Kemp and Bruce (combined 9/5/13), this would’ve been a much worse start for Dagan, who took out Jason 6-4. Pitching was a strong point with a sparkling 1.41/0.94, lead by Cueto, Masterson, and Wandy. That said, his seven starters only made four starts, so he couldn’t get the cumulative categories. A few potential concerns here with Youk, Latos, Soto and the Moreland/Belt/Doumit spots, but we’ll see where this is in a week.
5. Cowhide Joyride -- .350 (previous: 6)
Like Donkey, Dave could only muster a 3-6-1 week, but this time it was his pitching staff letting him down with a 5.57 ERA and only one QS and SV. Losing ABailey hurts, but the Motte/Kimbrel combo will keep him competitive in saves most weeks. While he awaits outings from the much anticipated Darvish, as well as EJax, the lackluster starts of Lincecum, Liriano, and Bumgarner are a bit worrisome. But I still expect good production from the staff and the offense, which had a good week lead by Yoenis and Prince. There’s not much fluctuation in the ranks here, but Dave’s roster seems to be more balanced than Chris’ at the moment, so he gets a bump.
6. Donkey Punchers -- .350 (previous: 5)
Really bad showing from the offense here (0-5), with only 11 runs and a .305 OBP, as Napoli, Teixera, Ike, Tabata, LoMo, and Gamel all struggled out of the gate and Cliff Pennington is manning a starting position. There’s still some serious fire power here, but I notice now a lot of it is “upside” in much of the offensive roster rather than past success—all guys I like, but something to consider as the season goes on. If they don’t produce as expected, Donkey could struggle. Pitching was quite good with a league-leading 48 Ks and 5 QS to go along with sub 3.50/1.15 ratios. But with 12 starters and no closers, the pitching staff can only do so much.
7. Montezuma’s Revenge -- .900 (previous: 7)
As much as I’d like to overreact and put me up top based on my 9-1 start, there are still a lot of question marks on the pitching staff that must be sorted out. I am encouraged that the outcome was good despite losing Pineda and Hamels not starting a game yet. FFrancisco put his injuries behind him quickly and won me saves, while Pena and Hosmer (big man crush there) paced my offense. Full week versus Donkey will help show where this team should go.
8. Prestige Worldwide -- .700 (previous: 8)
Nice record at 7-3, but there’s some pretty poor production in three categories in particular (10 RBI –- paced by Edwin Encarnacion, yikes -- 5.88 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). I expect more production from AGon, Grandy, and Stubbs, while Longo and Maybin have played well, but there are some question marks. Romero and Buchholz stinkers, assisted by Aceves, Marmol, and Holland flops, shot that ERA up beyond acceptable levels. I think this team is solid at the top, but the middle-of-the-road guys are going to have to produce to keep the team afloat.
9. Keepin it Real -- .650 (previous: 10)
Pierce has to be pretty happy with the 6-3-1 start, with Sandoval, Wright, Peralta, and Joyce leading the way to a .397 OBP and 23 RBIs. The pitching, however, is what made the difference here with a very tidy 40K, 2.47/1.10/, and 5QS start. If he can get this type of production from his starters the rest of the way (particulary JSanchez, Billingsley, and Zambrano), he will shoot up this rankings in short order. That’s a big “if” though. Might’ve just been a lucky week.
10. Billy Chapel -- .350 (previous: 9)
Troy got off to a disappointing 3-6-1 start due largely to some extraordinarily shitty pitching, which produced a remarkable 6.83/1.84, with just 1 QS, no saves, and 23 Ks. Part of the problem is he has just five active starters, one of whom is on the DL (Fister) but hasn’t found his way to the DL slot, thus there is no replacement. I can assure you no team with four starts will ever win QS or Ks. Beckett’s start was troubling, while Jurrjens wasn’t so hot either and the Axford/Salas/Santos threesome was a first week flop. The offense looked pretty good though and will get better.
11. One Nut Wonders -- .400 (previous: 11)
Jason escaped with a 4-6 record in an odd fashion. While his ERA and WHIP were worthy of a W, he lost both categories. But he managed to get wins in OBP with a .286 (above Dagan’s .268) and 29 Ks (vs. 26). I still have a hard time believing a team that is trotting out Jesus Guzman and Kyle Blanks at the critical position of 1B and starting GBeckham will have an offensive force that can make the playoffs. His starters looked good outside of Shields and he’s got HAlvarez and MMoore who have yet to start, but it’s going to take some consistent production for Jason to move up.
12. Urban Achievers -- .100 (previous: 12)
Tough week for Dan, who rosters four guys with an on-base clip below .150. and managed only three home runs. Guys like Reynolds, Choo, Jennings, and CYoung will ultimately pace offensive production and they just haven’t shown up yet. He got some bad luck with Farnsworth and has a number of back rotation types who haven’t started yet, so that 5.24/1.61 (thanks largely to CC’s stinker) could smooth out here soon. Arrietta was a nice pickup after a good first start; this team needs high upside waiver pickups during the year to have a chance.
13. Anal Hershiser -- .300 (previous: 13)
Andy made a couple moves that helped balance the roster a bit (Colon and Tomlin), but it is still considerably out of whack with five offensive bench players. Any team that doesn’t have a closer, really should have a starting staff that can dominate the counting stats. The Haren, Verlander, Strasburg, Wilson foursome should be consistent and give Anal an edge most weeks, but there needs to be more around them. He ended the four-day week only two QS and seven Ks away from a 5-5 week, which is perfectly acceptable during a week when your offense produces an atrocious 10/3/18/0/.234 line. A team lacking offensive pop and pitching depth with a surplus of great top-of-the-line starters sounds like a good candidate for an early season trade.
14. The Angry Pirates -- .100 (previous: 14)
While quite sad overall with an 0 SV, 11K, 5.50 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 2 QS, it wasn’t that far off the outputs of Urban, Anal, Billy, and Prestige, so it was a bit of bad luck to have to go against Russ’ firing squad the first week. (It doesn’t get much easier this week with Dagan.) Unfortunately for Kyle, he’s got Josh Johnson and a lot of back-of-the-rotation types, so the short week did not work in his favor. He’s got a bunch of interesting guys (Bard, Feliz, Sale, WChen, Doubront) who would make a big difference if they can start strong. There’s still a lot to like on offense here, so Kyle could move up a few spots in the next week.
Despite the 6-3-1, Casten maintains the top position with a smashing week (9 HR, .400 OBP), sweeping the offensive categories from Donkey. He also had an excellent pitching week, tied for the most QS, 2nd most Ks and a 3.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but he couldn’t beat out Chris’s impressive pitching line and the final record doesn’t quite reflect how well his team did. A few stinkers from the pitching staff spoiled his party, but the starts of Dunn, Niese, and Hart should be encouraging.
2. Clayton & The King -- .900 (previous: 2)
When you look at the totals for the week and compare to Grumpy, this is a good example of how records are not exactly representative of quality. Russ didn’t really have a good week; offense was mediocre (18/6/19/0/.319) and pitching was just OK (4.67 ERA won’t get you a win most weeks). But Kyle’s team was just awful, so Russ escapes with a blowout despite Clayton’s sickness and the King’s underperformance.
3. Moose is Loose -- .650 (previous: 3)
Solid week all around for Brian, with some heartening starts from Beltran and Markakis fueling the offense. He also gets credit for cutting losses with VMart and gaining a fifth closer now that it appears Rodney will take it for TB. The news doesn’t sound good on Baker coming off the DL soon and Kuroda and ESantana stunk it up, but good to see Danks and Ubaldo with good outings. After bouncing Dave, he’s got another tough matchup with Brandon this week.
4. Ring of Fire -- .600 (previous: 4)
Without Kemp and Bruce (combined 9/5/13), this would’ve been a much worse start for Dagan, who took out Jason 6-4. Pitching was a strong point with a sparkling 1.41/0.94, lead by Cueto, Masterson, and Wandy. That said, his seven starters only made four starts, so he couldn’t get the cumulative categories. A few potential concerns here with Youk, Latos, Soto and the Moreland/Belt/Doumit spots, but we’ll see where this is in a week.
5. Cowhide Joyride -- .350 (previous: 6)
Like Donkey, Dave could only muster a 3-6-1 week, but this time it was his pitching staff letting him down with a 5.57 ERA and only one QS and SV. Losing ABailey hurts, but the Motte/Kimbrel combo will keep him competitive in saves most weeks. While he awaits outings from the much anticipated Darvish, as well as EJax, the lackluster starts of Lincecum, Liriano, and Bumgarner are a bit worrisome. But I still expect good production from the staff and the offense, which had a good week lead by Yoenis and Prince. There’s not much fluctuation in the ranks here, but Dave’s roster seems to be more balanced than Chris’ at the moment, so he gets a bump.
6. Donkey Punchers -- .350 (previous: 5)
Really bad showing from the offense here (0-5), with only 11 runs and a .305 OBP, as Napoli, Teixera, Ike, Tabata, LoMo, and Gamel all struggled out of the gate and Cliff Pennington is manning a starting position. There’s still some serious fire power here, but I notice now a lot of it is “upside” in much of the offensive roster rather than past success—all guys I like, but something to consider as the season goes on. If they don’t produce as expected, Donkey could struggle. Pitching was quite good with a league-leading 48 Ks and 5 QS to go along with sub 3.50/1.15 ratios. But with 12 starters and no closers, the pitching staff can only do so much.
7. Montezuma’s Revenge -- .900 (previous: 7)
As much as I’d like to overreact and put me up top based on my 9-1 start, there are still a lot of question marks on the pitching staff that must be sorted out. I am encouraged that the outcome was good despite losing Pineda and Hamels not starting a game yet. FFrancisco put his injuries behind him quickly and won me saves, while Pena and Hosmer (big man crush there) paced my offense. Full week versus Donkey will help show where this team should go.
8. Prestige Worldwide -- .700 (previous: 8)
Nice record at 7-3, but there’s some pretty poor production in three categories in particular (10 RBI –- paced by Edwin Encarnacion, yikes -- 5.88 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). I expect more production from AGon, Grandy, and Stubbs, while Longo and Maybin have played well, but there are some question marks. Romero and Buchholz stinkers, assisted by Aceves, Marmol, and Holland flops, shot that ERA up beyond acceptable levels. I think this team is solid at the top, but the middle-of-the-road guys are going to have to produce to keep the team afloat.
9. Keepin it Real -- .650 (previous: 10)
Pierce has to be pretty happy with the 6-3-1 start, with Sandoval, Wright, Peralta, and Joyce leading the way to a .397 OBP and 23 RBIs. The pitching, however, is what made the difference here with a very tidy 40K, 2.47/1.10/, and 5QS start. If he can get this type of production from his starters the rest of the way (particulary JSanchez, Billingsley, and Zambrano), he will shoot up this rankings in short order. That’s a big “if” though. Might’ve just been a lucky week.
10. Billy Chapel -- .350 (previous: 9)
Troy got off to a disappointing 3-6-1 start due largely to some extraordinarily shitty pitching, which produced a remarkable 6.83/1.84, with just 1 QS, no saves, and 23 Ks. Part of the problem is he has just five active starters, one of whom is on the DL (Fister) but hasn’t found his way to the DL slot, thus there is no replacement. I can assure you no team with four starts will ever win QS or Ks. Beckett’s start was troubling, while Jurrjens wasn’t so hot either and the Axford/Salas/Santos threesome was a first week flop. The offense looked pretty good though and will get better.
11. One Nut Wonders -- .400 (previous: 11)
Jason escaped with a 4-6 record in an odd fashion. While his ERA and WHIP were worthy of a W, he lost both categories. But he managed to get wins in OBP with a .286 (above Dagan’s .268) and 29 Ks (vs. 26). I still have a hard time believing a team that is trotting out Jesus Guzman and Kyle Blanks at the critical position of 1B and starting GBeckham will have an offensive force that can make the playoffs. His starters looked good outside of Shields and he’s got HAlvarez and MMoore who have yet to start, but it’s going to take some consistent production for Jason to move up.
12. Urban Achievers -- .100 (previous: 12)
Tough week for Dan, who rosters four guys with an on-base clip below .150. and managed only three home runs. Guys like Reynolds, Choo, Jennings, and CYoung will ultimately pace offensive production and they just haven’t shown up yet. He got some bad luck with Farnsworth and has a number of back rotation types who haven’t started yet, so that 5.24/1.61 (thanks largely to CC’s stinker) could smooth out here soon. Arrietta was a nice pickup after a good first start; this team needs high upside waiver pickups during the year to have a chance.
13. Anal Hershiser -- .300 (previous: 13)
Andy made a couple moves that helped balance the roster a bit (Colon and Tomlin), but it is still considerably out of whack with five offensive bench players. Any team that doesn’t have a closer, really should have a starting staff that can dominate the counting stats. The Haren, Verlander, Strasburg, Wilson foursome should be consistent and give Anal an edge most weeks, but there needs to be more around them. He ended the four-day week only two QS and seven Ks away from a 5-5 week, which is perfectly acceptable during a week when your offense produces an atrocious 10/3/18/0/.234 line. A team lacking offensive pop and pitching depth with a surplus of great top-of-the-line starters sounds like a good candidate for an early season trade.
14. The Angry Pirates -- .100 (previous: 14)
While quite sad overall with an 0 SV, 11K, 5.50 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 2 QS, it wasn’t that far off the outputs of Urban, Anal, Billy, and Prestige, so it was a bit of bad luck to have to go against Russ’ firing squad the first week. (It doesn’t get much easier this week with Dagan.) Unfortunately for Kyle, he’s got Josh Johnson and a lot of back-of-the-rotation types, so the short week did not work in his favor. He’s got a bunch of interesting guys (Bard, Feliz, Sale, WChen, Doubront) who would make a big difference if they can start strong. There’s still a lot to like on offense here, so Kyle could move up a few spots in the next week.
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Week 1 Power Rankings
1. Grumpy Munchkins (pre-draft rank: 2)
Providing Cabrera gains 3B eligibility soon, there are no flaws on this team right now. Bullpen is a slight issue now without Madson, and the offense is a bit slow with only Reyes and McCutch true base stealers, but that’s nitpicking. This team has tremendous depth at pitching that should allow Brandon to have the success he experienced last year in the counting categories, only this time he’ll get saves. The one thing that could hurt Brandon is the fact that the starters, while deep, lack solid track records (Luebke, Morrow, Beachy, Scherzer, Norris, and Niese in particular). Garza may get consideration as a borderline #1, but the staff is almost entirely guys I would label as #2s or #3s. Also, with keeping Harper, he doesn’t have a back-up offensive player who can contribute on days off (I prefer at least one). Cuddyer’s value would probably be maximized as a super-sub/UTIL if he were to acquire a good 2B. I love the UTIL combo of Hart/Dunn.
2. Clayton & The King (pre-draft rank: 1)
The pitching is outstanding, highlighted by the team’s namesakes, mixed in with high upside guys like Holland, Zimmerman, and Minor. He also has easily the best bullpen with Mo, Paps, and Putz. There is little doubt in my mind Russ will dominate in pitching. While he has Cano, Hamilton, and CarGo, there are question marks on offense, including Crawford’s health/bouncebackability, Berkman and Hardy’s ability to repeat, and what a full season from Freese, JMontero, and Boesch (or De Aza and Kipnis, for that matter) will provide. I also think JMontero’s value is hurt by Avila’s presence; I would’ve preferred a middle-of-the-road fill-in that could be dropped once Montero gains C eligibility. Then again, it’s not clear how much he’ll be catching, so I could be wrong. His first rounders (Crawford, Berkman, Montero) were perfect for this team.
3. Moose is Loose (predraft rank: 4)
This is a very balanced team and Brian’s draft had very few flaws (outside of the wasted VMart pick). The pitching staff lacks a clear #2, but is very deep with a bunch of #3s and high-end #4s. If SBaker is healthy, that will be a major value pick to go along with Danks. He also has a potentially excellent bullpen with four closers, though Capps and Balfour are on the lower tier. The offense lacks true boppers outside of Tulo, but is, again, very deep and should be competitive across the board. As much as I don’t like Ichiro, he’s fine as a third OF, which is a strong position for Moose with Crisp/Markakis in the UTIL. I like the bench picks of JMayberry and JMorneau.
4. Ring of Fire (predraft rank: 6)
Tight on Brian’s heels, Dagan had an excellent offense heading into the draft, but no pitchers. He quickly accumulated a very deep staff, albeit without a real top-of-the-line ace (Latos in CIN vs. SD is a tad bit scary) and an excellent bullpen lead by Walden and the underrated League. Anibal, Cueto, Masterson, Wandy, and Leake aren’t sexy names, but that’s a very deep staff that can churn up the QSs. Ever cognizant of the impact on OBP, Dagan should have no problem staying competitive there, making Goldschmidt and Alexei excellent choices to fill out the offense. I like Belt as a great sleeper, provided he gets the chance to play. The team has several guys who can contribute to SB, but lacks a true burner outside Kemp.
5. Donkey Punchers (predraft rank: 3)
Chris’ team is overall very good and I particularly liked the selections for the UTIL slots (IDavis in the 9th and Tabata in the 16th), but I’d be a wee bit concerned about relying on Lowrie full time at SS (he’s already injured), while Jemile Weeks was drafted a bit higher than I expected (top of the 11th). There’s also the issue of a complete lack of a bullpen – a strategy several employed last year and can be made to work with a dominant starting staff, but is ultimately flawed in my opinion. That said, he’s definitely got a chance to have a dominant staff lead by Doc, Gallardo, and Cain. It falls off a bit after that, in my opinion, but I was high on Dempster and McCarthy as midrotation guys and like the high risk/reward picks of Volquez and Matusz. A deep rotation can cover up the flaws of a few. With that strategy, I could understand (sort of) keeping a minor league pitcher, but not two. I like Bauer and Parker fine, but it’s a wasted roster spot at the moment and, while there are some exceptions, most rookie pitchers are not worth the hassle/volatility, no matter their pedigree. Chris’ offense also has a chance to be dominant if Napoli repeats, Ethier rebounds (I think he will), and Morrison gets healthy. Gamel and Dan Murphy were quality bench picks. Several of these players were in my queue when Chris took them.
6. Cowhide Joyride (predraft rank: 5)
I love the offense, including the UTIL spots (KJohnson and ALind) until I hit the outfield. With a complete infield kept, Dave missed the opportunity to have a potentially dominant offense by whiffing on his OF. I like Rasmus as a rebound candidate, but feel he’s better suited as a #3 and he’s the best guy here in my opinion. Rios has just never been that good in an OBP league and was terrible last year, while AJackson doesn’t have on base skills either, and by all account Cespedes will not be a patient hitter and was a bit of an overdraft in the 10th. Dave’s pitching staff is full of high upside worthwhile risks with Darvish, Johan, Liriano, Nolasco, and Carpenter. He pairs the starters with a top-three bullpen of Kimbrel, Bailey, and Motte on a team that should be a contender this year.
7. Montezuma’s Revenge (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
With several key offensive guys on the young side (Lawrie, Hosmer, Upton), my goal was to round out my offense with some solid, OBP-conscious veterans. I accomplished this with the additions of CPena, Swisher, and Scutaro, while DYoung and Kubel provide some strong power potential. The team lacks speed, with only bench player LCain offering anything beyond that of my keepers; he could potentially be a monster hitting second in the Royals lineup. My pitching is strong 1-2, comparatively weak in the middle, with some intriguing plays toward the end (HBailey, Peavy, JMcDonald, and Pomeranz) and hopefully some high quality mid-year reinforcements with BAnderson. With the addition of Marshall, the pen is strong provided he gets a majority of the saves and Storen is back shortly.
8. Prestige Worldwide (predraft rank: 7th)
I liked the way the rotation was heading, but it sort of stopped after Bedard lined up as the #5. LLynn was added, but there’s only six active starters, which is fewer than most teams (we average 7.4 starters per team, not including minors, teamless, DLd, or retired). Meanwhile, Commish has a lot of low-end closers with Marmol, Guerra, and JJohnson, with GHolland possibly rising to the role eventually. The offense is very intriguing. While I thought Kendrick was a big overdraft in the 7th, he fits in well in this lineup. Maybin was a nice addition to an already speedy OF (Granderson and Stubbs). I really don’t like Trumbo because of what he does to your OBP, but he’s a good guy to fill in here and there, which is the role he’ll play on this team. Smoak, Encarnacion, and LaHair are all intriguing power guys, but I would rather throw one back and get another pitcher.
9. Billy Chapel (predraft rank: 13th)
Don’t look now, but Troy has the makings of a pretty damn good team, albeit with some structure issues. Really, no team should have five offensive bench players; there’s just no where to put them all and you’re wasting roster spots on guys like JRivera, Presley, and Thome that could be better used in the rotattion. Meanwhile, Salas really offers nothing for the bullpen. That said, I like this team. It won’t set record in the OBP category and Morales needs to be healthy and productive (the lack of a decent backup at 1B is an issue), but RMartin was a solid pick, Espinosa has 30/30 upside, and Aramis/ARod is the league’s best UTIL combo. While I don’t like Francoeur to repeat, Willingham is a solid backup plan. If IKennedy and Beckett can reproduce their 2011s, there’s a lot of steady guys behind them (Hudson, Fister, Jurrjens, Wolf) and a very good duo of high-K closers in Axford and Santos. I think this is probably Troy’s best post-draft team in years.
10. Keepin it Real (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
In his efforts to win last year and the aforementioned lack of offseason trades, Pierce shot himself in the foot heading into this one. That said, he picked up some solid guys that will keep him competitive. While overdrafted, I like Mauer to bounce back and think the Bay/CLee UTIL combo was a good choice that could potentially pay off in a huge way. I also like Joyce to take the next step and live up to the #2 OF position he has here (for a team with a good top group, eight is way too many outfielders). But let’s be clear: this is not going to be a dominant pitching team. Billingsley, while having enjoyed success in the past, is more like a #5 on a good staff, but he's the third best pitcher on KIR. In fact, Pierce’s entire rotation is full of #5s and #6s. I like Stauffer all right and believe in Zambrano to a point, but it just lacks upside (I’m of the opinion JSanchez will not work in the AL Central). Meanwhile, he completely passed on a bullpen, meaning the strong pitching that lead Pierce to a championship last year is now a very pronounced weakness.
11. One Nut Wonders (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
Frankly, I’m shocked to be ranking Jason this low, but there’s no way to escape it: he’s got a mighty big hill to climb to be competitive this year. The biggest problem starts at the top of his roster: C- Molina (enh…), 1B – MCarp (wait, as a starter? You’re kidding, right? Did you forget you didn’t get to to keep Konerko?), 2B – GBeckham (Utley is down and, at this point, Becks can’t be considered anything but a pretty name of the past), and 3B EBonifacio (OK, decent, but not the power you want from a corner position). RHoward would do a lot to right this ship, but that’s an awfully big risk to take. The outfield is the best part of the team and will certainly help with AJones and Melky joining Gordon and Braun (Jason is damn lucky he won his appeal). I like Weaver, Shields, and am actually fine with MMoore as a #3 despite his youth, but there is just a massive cavern after that. I like Nicasio as a backend – not midrotation – guy, and Vogelsong pitched way over his head last season. Meanwhile the underwhelmingness of those two - combined with HAlvarez, Niemann, Lohse, Hochevar - is overwhelming. And Perez and Thornton are bottom-five closers in my opinion (though, at least you have some). Since he was in roughly the same position as I was heading in to the draft, I really thought Jason would’ve selected better in the late rounds. I know, as he lamented several times during the draft, he had some of his targets taken out from underneath him a few times. Still, despite this ranking, you can never count the Dealer out. One thing is for sure though – if he gives up early, expect a Casten-like effort for 2013 multiplied by three.
12. Urban Achievers (predraft rank: 14)
There’s a lot I don’t like about this offense: 1) two catchers, neither of whom are very good, 2) Reynolds at first; good pick, but you’re sort of losing his appeal by not taking advantage of his 3B eligibility and having a better option at 1B, 3) OBP, Dan really doesn’t appear to have a shot in hell at competing in this category, 4) Ryan Raburn is a projected starter, 5) there are five offensive bench players, none of whom I like very much (ACraig is good), and three of whom are 2Bs. OK, now that we got that out of the way, there’s some potential here. Moustakas and DGordon certainly have upside and long-term keeper potential, while a full year of DJennings and rebounds from SChoo and CYoung could prove fruitful. I actually think the staff is pretty well structured, with Cahill, Chacin, Hughes, and Burnett all decent shots to take behind CC and Gio. Farnsworth and Broxton are not the most stable duo for a bullpen, but they could pay off and it sounds like Brox will at least start the season closing. Still, might be another tough season for Dan. If it is, liquidating assets early and often is advisable.
13. Anal Hershiser (predraft rank: 13)
The good: Konerko, Morse, and Bourn as keepers; the picks of Walker, Pagan, Bourjos, and Ramos; and the top four starters (Verlander, Haren, Strasburg, and Wilson) is the best foursome in the league. The bad: everything else. Not really, but close. The offense just lacks pop and the team is completely imbalanced – there are six offensive bench players and only four active starting pitchers! Oswalt doesn’t have a team and is not expected to have one until June, the 2012 Major League Baseball season has started and there is a retired player on this roster, and Ogando is heading to the bullpen by all accounts. Meanwhile, there was no effort to get a closer. That said, there are definitely solid parts here. I can think of six moves I’d make right now that would push this team up four or five spots, so I expect Andy will move up in the near future.
14. The Angry Pirates (predraft rank: 12)
I feel sorry for Kyle, I really do. Not sure what was going on, but I remember the feeling of not being able to pick my fantasy football team last year because the power was out. Unfortunately, he only appointed an offensive coordinator to replace him and forgot to invite a defensive presence, as Gibby compiled a real nice offense top to bottom (love the LDuda/GSanchez UTIL duo), but did Kyle no favors in the pitching department. If starting off with the brittle JJohnson wasn’t challenging enough, the rotation was backfilled with a bunch of rookies and converted relievers (Guthrie and Doubront were not much of an upgrade). I like Sale, I like Feliz, I kind of like Bard, but I would only have drafted one of them, certainly not all three and not where they were drafted. One positive is the bullpen of Valverde, BWilson, and HBell is one of the best in the league, but that will only win you one category. Really, without a major improvement in the rotation, I’d be surprised if Kyle ever won a category outside of saves. That puts you down 6-4 before the week even starts. Not good.
Providing Cabrera gains 3B eligibility soon, there are no flaws on this team right now. Bullpen is a slight issue now without Madson, and the offense is a bit slow with only Reyes and McCutch true base stealers, but that’s nitpicking. This team has tremendous depth at pitching that should allow Brandon to have the success he experienced last year in the counting categories, only this time he’ll get saves. The one thing that could hurt Brandon is the fact that the starters, while deep, lack solid track records (Luebke, Morrow, Beachy, Scherzer, Norris, and Niese in particular). Garza may get consideration as a borderline #1, but the staff is almost entirely guys I would label as #2s or #3s. Also, with keeping Harper, he doesn’t have a back-up offensive player who can contribute on days off (I prefer at least one). Cuddyer’s value would probably be maximized as a super-sub/UTIL if he were to acquire a good 2B. I love the UTIL combo of Hart/Dunn.
2. Clayton & The King (pre-draft rank: 1)
The pitching is outstanding, highlighted by the team’s namesakes, mixed in with high upside guys like Holland, Zimmerman, and Minor. He also has easily the best bullpen with Mo, Paps, and Putz. There is little doubt in my mind Russ will dominate in pitching. While he has Cano, Hamilton, and CarGo, there are question marks on offense, including Crawford’s health/bouncebackability, Berkman and Hardy’s ability to repeat, and what a full season from Freese, JMontero, and Boesch (or De Aza and Kipnis, for that matter) will provide. I also think JMontero’s value is hurt by Avila’s presence; I would’ve preferred a middle-of-the-road fill-in that could be dropped once Montero gains C eligibility. Then again, it’s not clear how much he’ll be catching, so I could be wrong. His first rounders (Crawford, Berkman, Montero) were perfect for this team.
3. Moose is Loose (predraft rank: 4)
This is a very balanced team and Brian’s draft had very few flaws (outside of the wasted VMart pick). The pitching staff lacks a clear #2, but is very deep with a bunch of #3s and high-end #4s. If SBaker is healthy, that will be a major value pick to go along with Danks. He also has a potentially excellent bullpen with four closers, though Capps and Balfour are on the lower tier. The offense lacks true boppers outside of Tulo, but is, again, very deep and should be competitive across the board. As much as I don’t like Ichiro, he’s fine as a third OF, which is a strong position for Moose with Crisp/Markakis in the UTIL. I like the bench picks of JMayberry and JMorneau.
4. Ring of Fire (predraft rank: 6)
Tight on Brian’s heels, Dagan had an excellent offense heading into the draft, but no pitchers. He quickly accumulated a very deep staff, albeit without a real top-of-the-line ace (Latos in CIN vs. SD is a tad bit scary) and an excellent bullpen lead by Walden and the underrated League. Anibal, Cueto, Masterson, Wandy, and Leake aren’t sexy names, but that’s a very deep staff that can churn up the QSs. Ever cognizant of the impact on OBP, Dagan should have no problem staying competitive there, making Goldschmidt and Alexei excellent choices to fill out the offense. I like Belt as a great sleeper, provided he gets the chance to play. The team has several guys who can contribute to SB, but lacks a true burner outside Kemp.
5. Donkey Punchers (predraft rank: 3)
Chris’ team is overall very good and I particularly liked the selections for the UTIL slots (IDavis in the 9th and Tabata in the 16th), but I’d be a wee bit concerned about relying on Lowrie full time at SS (he’s already injured), while Jemile Weeks was drafted a bit higher than I expected (top of the 11th). There’s also the issue of a complete lack of a bullpen – a strategy several employed last year and can be made to work with a dominant starting staff, but is ultimately flawed in my opinion. That said, he’s definitely got a chance to have a dominant staff lead by Doc, Gallardo, and Cain. It falls off a bit after that, in my opinion, but I was high on Dempster and McCarthy as midrotation guys and like the high risk/reward picks of Volquez and Matusz. A deep rotation can cover up the flaws of a few. With that strategy, I could understand (sort of) keeping a minor league pitcher, but not two. I like Bauer and Parker fine, but it’s a wasted roster spot at the moment and, while there are some exceptions, most rookie pitchers are not worth the hassle/volatility, no matter their pedigree. Chris’ offense also has a chance to be dominant if Napoli repeats, Ethier rebounds (I think he will), and Morrison gets healthy. Gamel and Dan Murphy were quality bench picks. Several of these players were in my queue when Chris took them.
6. Cowhide Joyride (predraft rank: 5)
I love the offense, including the UTIL spots (KJohnson and ALind) until I hit the outfield. With a complete infield kept, Dave missed the opportunity to have a potentially dominant offense by whiffing on his OF. I like Rasmus as a rebound candidate, but feel he’s better suited as a #3 and he’s the best guy here in my opinion. Rios has just never been that good in an OBP league and was terrible last year, while AJackson doesn’t have on base skills either, and by all account Cespedes will not be a patient hitter and was a bit of an overdraft in the 10th. Dave’s pitching staff is full of high upside worthwhile risks with Darvish, Johan, Liriano, Nolasco, and Carpenter. He pairs the starters with a top-three bullpen of Kimbrel, Bailey, and Motte on a team that should be a contender this year.
7. Montezuma’s Revenge (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
With several key offensive guys on the young side (Lawrie, Hosmer, Upton), my goal was to round out my offense with some solid, OBP-conscious veterans. I accomplished this with the additions of CPena, Swisher, and Scutaro, while DYoung and Kubel provide some strong power potential. The team lacks speed, with only bench player LCain offering anything beyond that of my keepers; he could potentially be a monster hitting second in the Royals lineup. My pitching is strong 1-2, comparatively weak in the middle, with some intriguing plays toward the end (HBailey, Peavy, JMcDonald, and Pomeranz) and hopefully some high quality mid-year reinforcements with BAnderson. With the addition of Marshall, the pen is strong provided he gets a majority of the saves and Storen is back shortly.
8. Prestige Worldwide (predraft rank: 7th)
I liked the way the rotation was heading, but it sort of stopped after Bedard lined up as the #5. LLynn was added, but there’s only six active starters, which is fewer than most teams (we average 7.4 starters per team, not including minors, teamless, DLd, or retired). Meanwhile, Commish has a lot of low-end closers with Marmol, Guerra, and JJohnson, with GHolland possibly rising to the role eventually. The offense is very intriguing. While I thought Kendrick was a big overdraft in the 7th, he fits in well in this lineup. Maybin was a nice addition to an already speedy OF (Granderson and Stubbs). I really don’t like Trumbo because of what he does to your OBP, but he’s a good guy to fill in here and there, which is the role he’ll play on this team. Smoak, Encarnacion, and LaHair are all intriguing power guys, but I would rather throw one back and get another pitcher.
9. Billy Chapel (predraft rank: 13th)
Don’t look now, but Troy has the makings of a pretty damn good team, albeit with some structure issues. Really, no team should have five offensive bench players; there’s just no where to put them all and you’re wasting roster spots on guys like JRivera, Presley, and Thome that could be better used in the rotattion. Meanwhile, Salas really offers nothing for the bullpen. That said, I like this team. It won’t set record in the OBP category and Morales needs to be healthy and productive (the lack of a decent backup at 1B is an issue), but RMartin was a solid pick, Espinosa has 30/30 upside, and Aramis/ARod is the league’s best UTIL combo. While I don’t like Francoeur to repeat, Willingham is a solid backup plan. If IKennedy and Beckett can reproduce their 2011s, there’s a lot of steady guys behind them (Hudson, Fister, Jurrjens, Wolf) and a very good duo of high-K closers in Axford and Santos. I think this is probably Troy’s best post-draft team in years.
10. Keepin it Real (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
In his efforts to win last year and the aforementioned lack of offseason trades, Pierce shot himself in the foot heading into this one. That said, he picked up some solid guys that will keep him competitive. While overdrafted, I like Mauer to bounce back and think the Bay/CLee UTIL combo was a good choice that could potentially pay off in a huge way. I also like Joyce to take the next step and live up to the #2 OF position he has here (for a team with a good top group, eight is way too many outfielders). But let’s be clear: this is not going to be a dominant pitching team. Billingsley, while having enjoyed success in the past, is more like a #5 on a good staff, but he's the third best pitcher on KIR. In fact, Pierce’s entire rotation is full of #5s and #6s. I like Stauffer all right and believe in Zambrano to a point, but it just lacks upside (I’m of the opinion JSanchez will not work in the AL Central). Meanwhile, he completely passed on a bullpen, meaning the strong pitching that lead Pierce to a championship last year is now a very pronounced weakness.
11. One Nut Wonders (predraft rank: 8th – tie)
Frankly, I’m shocked to be ranking Jason this low, but there’s no way to escape it: he’s got a mighty big hill to climb to be competitive this year. The biggest problem starts at the top of his roster: C- Molina (enh…), 1B – MCarp (wait, as a starter? You’re kidding, right? Did you forget you didn’t get to to keep Konerko?), 2B – GBeckham (Utley is down and, at this point, Becks can’t be considered anything but a pretty name of the past), and 3B EBonifacio (OK, decent, but not the power you want from a corner position). RHoward would do a lot to right this ship, but that’s an awfully big risk to take. The outfield is the best part of the team and will certainly help with AJones and Melky joining Gordon and Braun (Jason is damn lucky he won his appeal). I like Weaver, Shields, and am actually fine with MMoore as a #3 despite his youth, but there is just a massive cavern after that. I like Nicasio as a backend – not midrotation – guy, and Vogelsong pitched way over his head last season. Meanwhile the underwhelmingness of those two - combined with HAlvarez, Niemann, Lohse, Hochevar - is overwhelming. And Perez and Thornton are bottom-five closers in my opinion (though, at least you have some). Since he was in roughly the same position as I was heading in to the draft, I really thought Jason would’ve selected better in the late rounds. I know, as he lamented several times during the draft, he had some of his targets taken out from underneath him a few times. Still, despite this ranking, you can never count the Dealer out. One thing is for sure though – if he gives up early, expect a Casten-like effort for 2013 multiplied by three.
12. Urban Achievers (predraft rank: 14)
There’s a lot I don’t like about this offense: 1) two catchers, neither of whom are very good, 2) Reynolds at first; good pick, but you’re sort of losing his appeal by not taking advantage of his 3B eligibility and having a better option at 1B, 3) OBP, Dan really doesn’t appear to have a shot in hell at competing in this category, 4) Ryan Raburn is a projected starter, 5) there are five offensive bench players, none of whom I like very much (ACraig is good), and three of whom are 2Bs. OK, now that we got that out of the way, there’s some potential here. Moustakas and DGordon certainly have upside and long-term keeper potential, while a full year of DJennings and rebounds from SChoo and CYoung could prove fruitful. I actually think the staff is pretty well structured, with Cahill, Chacin, Hughes, and Burnett all decent shots to take behind CC and Gio. Farnsworth and Broxton are not the most stable duo for a bullpen, but they could pay off and it sounds like Brox will at least start the season closing. Still, might be another tough season for Dan. If it is, liquidating assets early and often is advisable.
13. Anal Hershiser (predraft rank: 13)
The good: Konerko, Morse, and Bourn as keepers; the picks of Walker, Pagan, Bourjos, and Ramos; and the top four starters (Verlander, Haren, Strasburg, and Wilson) is the best foursome in the league. The bad: everything else. Not really, but close. The offense just lacks pop and the team is completely imbalanced – there are six offensive bench players and only four active starting pitchers! Oswalt doesn’t have a team and is not expected to have one until June, the 2012 Major League Baseball season has started and there is a retired player on this roster, and Ogando is heading to the bullpen by all accounts. Meanwhile, there was no effort to get a closer. That said, there are definitely solid parts here. I can think of six moves I’d make right now that would push this team up four or five spots, so I expect Andy will move up in the near future.
14. The Angry Pirates (predraft rank: 12)
I feel sorry for Kyle, I really do. Not sure what was going on, but I remember the feeling of not being able to pick my fantasy football team last year because the power was out. Unfortunately, he only appointed an offensive coordinator to replace him and forgot to invite a defensive presence, as Gibby compiled a real nice offense top to bottom (love the LDuda/GSanchez UTIL duo), but did Kyle no favors in the pitching department. If starting off with the brittle JJohnson wasn’t challenging enough, the rotation was backfilled with a bunch of rookies and converted relievers (Guthrie and Doubront were not much of an upgrade). I like Sale, I like Feliz, I kind of like Bard, but I would only have drafted one of them, certainly not all three and not where they were drafted. One positive is the bullpen of Valverde, BWilson, and HBell is one of the best in the league, but that will only win you one category. Really, without a major improvement in the rotation, I’d be surprised if Kyle ever won a category outside of saves. That puts you down 6-4 before the week even starts. Not good.
Sunday, March 25, 2012
2012 Draft Review
The 2012 draft was certainly a unique one, highlighted by mass confusion at the outset, the drafting of a player who actually was another player, the absence of an owner, and painfully long waits for some owners as they paid for their sins of sacrificing this years picks for an opportunity last year. Some teams are woefully shallow, while others have some of the most powerful post-draft teams (on paper) in league history. For those who suffered through long waits, their late round selections will undoubtedly dictate how well they do. Upon initial review, some did well and others did not (team by team rankings will come later). There is still hope though. As I’ve said before, my 2011 team makes a strong case for the active, informed manager. Four of my keepers were awful (Jeter, Dunn, Posey, Josh Johnson) and I had a very poor draft (1st – PAlvarez, 3rd – CBuchholz, 4th – EVolquez, 6th - GSizemore, 7th – BRoberts, 8th – RFranklin, 10th - FRodney, 12th – IStewart, 14th – DAardsma, 15th – JMcGee, 16th - MOrdonez). But through trades and a few key pickups (Hosmer, Hardy, Santos), I won the regular season. Stick with it and don’t give up too early. While I’m sure most would like Casten’s team right now, they’re just names at this point and a lot can and will happen; hell, he already lost Madson. So even though Urban Achievers made only their second pick two rounds after Casten finished his draft, there’s still hope for all. It might mean taking a few chances, but many teams get sucked into having the best team on paper but it’s the guys that come out of nowhere like Ryan Roberts last year that are the difference between the great and mediocre teams. OK, done with the pep talk, on to the draft review. As always, feedback is welcome.
7th
Best – SP Matt Cain, Donkey: This was my top rated player available. Pierce did a remarkable job last year, particularly in the draft. But he made a major mistake by not dealing A-Rod and Cain. Both should’ve been keepers and would’ve helped many teams. Cain is consistent and particularly valuable in QS leagues. While he never seems to get Ws, he had the third highest number of QS and a remarkable 79% QS %. Kind of surprised he made it to the sixth spot, but there was a case for the other guys as well (Reynolds, Berkman, Bumgarner, and…)
Runner-up Best – 3B Alex Rodriquez, Billy: And this was my number two (again, Pierce, what were you thinking?) player. Obviously, not a great year and old, but still a talent at a shallow position made even more shallow by Troy’s hoarding of triplebaggers (Beltre and Aramis as well).
Worst – SP Daniel Hudson, Prestige: He’s fine, but not that great and doesn’t strikeout enough (6.4 per nine) to warrant being taken over guys like CJ Wilson, Latos, or Garza.
Runner-up Worst – C Joe Mauer, Keepin: I don’t have a real problem with Mauer. I had him as a guy I might take at 25 overall, but Pierce had to wait 84 picks before his next player and I think he could’ve addressed positions that were as deep. Miguel Montero is arguably better and he went four rounds later.
X Factor – SP Matt Moore, One Nut: Here comes Jason with the X factors… Moore could be an instant ace or he could struggle as most rookie pitchers do. Maybe an overdraft here, but if he’s really good, this might be the last time he’s ever available to be drafted.
8th
Best – SP Matt Garza, Grumpy: Garza had great K numbers (9.0 per nine) and was the third highest rated pitcher in my book, but was taken seventh. It worked out well for Casten, who really executed a smart strategy by keeping his talented offense and drafting the league’s deepest rotation in the early rounds, an incredible 16 picks in the first four. He took Garza, Beachy, Hanson, Luebke, Cuddyer in the 8th and all were drafted near where they should be.
Runner-up Best – SP Michael Pineda, Montezuma: Go me. Really though, when I went through who might be taken before I picked, I never imagined Pineda would be there. The upside is too high for a 23 year old. I assume some were put off by the new stadium and reports of velocity concerns, but I’m happy to get a great #2 to team with Hamels.
Worst – C Alex Avila, Clayton: Last year was great, but very unexpected. If he produces the same, this draft position is warranted, but it’s hard to expect that to happen for someone who doesn’t have the pedigree and only has one year under his belt. Namely though, I just thought catcher was a position where teams could wait, so this was a bit of an overdraft. But keep in mind, Russ had a lot of early picks so can’t knock it too much if this was one of his targets.
Runner-up Worst – SP Yu Darvish, Cowhide: Again, can’t blame Dave for taking a chance here since he also had a lot of early picks, but it’s a risk better taken, I believe, on a guy like Pineda, Beckett, Sanchez, or Morrow. He should be good, but we just never know until they pitch in a real game.
X Factor – TIE Brandon Beachy and Corey Luebke, Grumpy: Two guys who burst onto the seen and up drafts boards, largely due to their strikeout ability (10.7 and 9.9 per nine, respectively). But the bottom line is they only have started 42 games between the two of them, so regression is certainly possible, or they could both K over 200.
9th
Best – SP Anibal Sanchez, Ring: Shocking that he dropped this far. He strikes out 202 guys in 2012 and only gets drafted two rounds higher than in 2011? Dagan didn’t keep any pitchers but got a really good 1-2 combo in Latos and Sanchez to round out a good staff.
Runner-up Best – TIE RP Craig Kimbrel, Cowhide and OF Corey Hard, Grumpy: Couldn’t decide who I liked more. Hart was almost a keeper, but an injury made Troy reconsider and caused him drop farther than he should have; he was the ninth OF taken. And Dave later admitted to wanting Hellickson, but if he did, he would’ve ended up on my worst list here. I’ll get to Hell Boy in a second, but did you know Kimbrel had 10 more strikeouts last year than Hellickson? Think about that for a second. Go ahead. I’ll wait … That’s 127 Ks in 77 innings vs. 117 Ks in 189 innings. Kimbrel is a unique talent at RP and deserved to be drafted before this.
Worst – OF Ichiro Suzuki, Moose: One of those guys who rank higher in AVG leagues, his only real contribution in our league is SBs (he hasn’t scored more than 90 runs since 2008) and he turns 39 in October. He’s batting third this year, so perhaps that will help his RBIs, but really he’s just a pretty name with pretty mediocre stats.
Runner-up Worst – SS JJ Hardy, Clayton: Don’t get me wrong, I loved Hardy last year. But he doesn’t have the greatest health history and, honestly, he only contributes to three categories. With his lack of speed and inability to walk, he actually hurts a bit. I don’t blame Russ too much though. By keeping three pitchers, he needed to get offense.
X Factor – 1B Ike Davis, Donkey: I really liked Davis last year before he got hurt and I think it’s a great pick here to go a long with Cain and Ethier for an excellent first three round for Chris. But he comes with a bit of risk considering his health and the state of the Mets. But I expect this to turnout well.
10th
Best – 1B Carlos Pena, Montezuma: One of the reasons I’m happy with my draft. Eventhough I didn’t have a first rounder, I would’ve been very pleased getting my top three guys (Pineda, Swisher, and Pena) in rounds 1-3 and I got them in 2-4. One of the great ways of assessing hitters in our league versus magazines that rank based on AVG is to subtract OBP from AVG and see whose difference ranks highest. Pena’s .225 AVG vs. .357 OBP put him in the top five (along with Swisher). He’s a solid four-category producer here.
Runner-up Best – OF Logan Morrison, Donkey: I think he would’ve gone a lot sooner had he not had the injury issues, as he’s received a lot of hype in the offseason. But the hype is well deserved as he showed some power to go with his very good ability to get on base. A young guy who could blossom this year with a better lineup.
Worst – OF Jeff Francoeur, Billy: His .329 OBP was passable for a starting OF in our league last year, but did you know he’s had an OBP of .300 or lower (roughly) in four of his six major league seasons as a regular. That is just killer for that category. While that trend is quite clear, his 2012 stats were outliers in that he never stole more than 8 bags in one season before and hadn’t hit 20 homers since his first full season as a regular in 2006. I ranked him 66th among OFs, so, yes, an overdraft in my mind.
Runner-up Worst – SP Jeremy Hellickson, Donkey: xFIP is a stat that essentially is ERA when taking out fielding. Hellickson’s was 4.72, far worse than his actual 2.95 ERA. That doesn’t mean he’ll be John Lackey this year -- he did convert 69% of his starts into QSs – but there’s some risk here that 2011 was an illusion. He’s also got great pedigree and showed an ability to K in the minors despite his RA Dickey-like production last year (5.6 per nine), so he may deliver and be a top 50 pitcher. But there’s enough underlying statistics to be a bit concerned and lower his draft position. Not a bad #4 though.
X Factor – 3B Mike Moustakas, Urban: I would like this better if Dan hadn’t already taken a third basemen in the first round, which was his last pick up to this point. But it’s a pretty good chance to take on a guy who could ultimately be a top 10 3B in the 2013 draft. Or he could be Pedro Alvarez…
11th
Best – C Miguel Montero, Angry: Great pick here. One of the top catchers in my mind but went ninth. Montero is one of the few catchers that can contribute well in four of the five categories and, at 28, is in his prime and in a good offense.
Runner-up Best – SP Justin Masterson, Ring: Another quality pick by Dagan, Masterson was underrated and converted two-thirds of his starts into QSs. His 6.6 K/9 is decent and may improve this year, as he’s 27 and started figuring it our last year. Owning him last year, one of his greatest qualities was his lows weren’t all that low and he had some very good games.
Worst – 1B Ryan Howard, One Nut: This seemed like a typical Jason pick; there’s significant upside and it makes him feel better when he looks at his roster. But the risk is significant. Even if he comes back in late May, what kind of shape will he be in? I just think the risk doesn’t justify the draft position here. Might’ve got him much later. I know I wasn’t going to pick him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Edwin Jackson, Cowhide: There’s just a lot of mediocrity (58% QS%, 3.79 ERA [3.73 xFIP], 1.44 WHIP, 6.7 K/9) and volatility and he shouldn’t have gone before guys like Masterson, Holland, Wandy, Dempster, Niese, Cueto, Lewis… OK, I had a lot of guys before Edwin… 84, actually.
X Factor – 1B Adam Dunn, Grumpy: Perfect pick for Casten in that it is high enough that none of us with limited early picks would dare take the risk, but it was one of Casten’s last picks. Huge upside obviously and he’s had a great spring. Dunn is only 31, so he could recover easily… or he could be Richie Sexson – drop hard and never recover. But as someone who lived with him last year, it was just dreadful and one of the worst fantasy experiences of my life.
12th
Best – SP Jonathan Niese, Grumpy: At some points it seems like Casten has accessed my draft board somehow, as I had Niese pretty high based on his great K numbers (7.9 per nine) and xFIP (3.27 vs his 4.41 ERA). He is among a handful of pitchers I see taking the next step into the upper tier this year like Kennedy did for me last year. He has the pedigree and the skills.
Runner-up Best – SP Ryan Dempster, Donkey: I was shocked he was so bad at the beginning of last season, but he ended up putting together a pretty decent year considering, including a 8.5 K/9 and 3.70 xFIP vs. 4.80 ERA.
Worst – C JP Arencibia, Urban: This is probably the biggest overdraft of the year. Yes, 23 HR and 78 RBI is very good, but 47 R is really bad, .282 OBP is horrible, and 1 steal is probably one more than he’ll get this year. The next catcher to go was Wilson Ramos five rounds later and I’d much rather have him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Neftali Feliz, Angry: Kudos for filling in for Kyle and Gibby did a great job drafting offense, but this pitching staff is the worst I have ever seen in this league. Of the five starters chosen (yes, Kyle has only six starters total), three of them are converted relievers (Sale, Feliz, and Bard) and two were rookies, one of whom was already in the minors (Teheran and Peacock). They join Josh Johnson, who has his own issues. I love his starting offense, but there’s a lot of work to be done with pitching. Feliz has a lot of questions marks, not least of which – as with all converted relievers – is a likely innings cap.
X Factor – SP Francisco Liriano, Cowhide: Really like Dave’s staff, lead by Lincecum and Bumgarner. He’s got some really questions marks with Darvish, Jackson, Santana, Liriano, Carpenter, and Nolasco, but if they all reach their upside potential, the staff could be great. I’m very confident in Liriano this year and would’ve taken him next had he dropped.
13th
Best – RP Drew Storen, Montezuma: I give myself credit for leaping here despite my other obvious needs. I wanted to get one solid reliever, as Santos proved to me last year that one good reliever can keep you competitive in the saves category. Last year I waited until the 14th and was stuck with Franklin in the midst of a RP run. I started the run this year and got my #2 overall reliever. Nine more relievers went before my next pick.
Runner-up Best – 3B/OF Martin Prado, Angry: I’m not a big Prado guy, but I give him a pass on last year and think he’ll be a quality starting 3B this year. Considering there was basically no one left that I would want to begin the season as a starter, I think this was a good move.
Worst – RP Kenley Jensen, Cowhide: If there is a middle reliever worth drafting, Jensen is certainly the best with his 16.1 K/9. But he’s just not going to get saves immediately and might not at all. Guerra is actually pretty good. Give me Walden, Motte, or Betancourt. That said, I know Dave likes to have middle guys on his roster, so not surprising here.
Runner-up Worst – SP Doug Fister, Billy: Really not a bad round, so this is a it nit-picky, but I don’t think Fister is going to produce the way he did at the end of last season. I expect more of an ERA toward 4.00 and a K/9 under 6, so it’s not really a value pick here. I’d have gone with someone with a bit more upside here. (FYI, I don’t blame Casten for taking Madson here. No one thought he had a season-ending injury at this point).
X Factor – SS Dee Gordon, Urban: He has more value in an AVG league, but he just doesn’t walk, limiting his value to two categories really. But he could be REALLY valuable in the SB category. Or he could struggle and be sent back to the minors…
14th
Best – OF Nick Markakis, Moose: I am most decidedly not a Markakis fan and I believe I listed him as one of the worst picks last year, but this was very low for him to go, even with an injury. He’s not going to win you a championship, but he won’t lose it for you either. He’ll contribute solid production across the board and he’s only 28, so he certainly could have a career year at any point. I would’ve criticized this pick if it was in the 9th, but its great value here.
Runner-up Best – SP Brandon McCarthy, Donkey: One of my better hunches from last season, he really had a very good year (3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 64% QS%, and 6.5 K/9) and he has the park and the pedigree to improve in his age-28 season. He does have a bit of an injury history, however.
Worst – 2B/OF Ryan Raburn, Urban: We’ve seen this before. Hot springs do not equal great seasons. He had an awful OBP in 2011 and it’s unlikely he’ll suddenly change his ways at the age of 31 and have a career year, never mind one worth keeping in your lineup on a regular basis.
Runner-up Worst – SP Chris Carpenter, Cowhide: Medical issues were sort of up in the air at this point, but certainly we knew he’d miss time. He could miss the whole year, but there’s no way to know. Still, Dave had a lot of early picks, so not a bad chance to take.
X Factor – RP Jordan Walden, Ring: I really like Walden and his K ability (10 per nine) but he blew a lot of saves last year and this is an Angels team that wants to win now. If he struggles, he’ll be replaced. Or he could recover and be the best RP in baseball.
15th
Best – 2B Kelly Johnson, Cowhide: I really like Johnson this year. Hitting in the #2 hole before Joey Bats could bring him back to the production level he experienced in Arizona that made him a keeper. Think a 93/26/71/13/.370 would be valuable? He’s only done it once, but if he does it again, Rickie Weeks will be Dave’s second best second baseman.
Runner-up Best – SS Jhonny Peralta, Keepin: As his owner for much of last year, Peralta’s number were under the radar but very good for the shortstop position, where 21 hrs and 86 rbis are hard to come by. His .345 OBP was a little high compared to his career .330, but that’s a very good lineup in Detroit and he’s only 30.
Worst – 1B/OF Mark Trumbo, Prestige: I know, 29 homers is great and 87 RBIs is good, but what else does he offer? If he gains 3B eligibility, I can understand keeping him as a flexible bench option, but this was too early to draft him in my mind. The biggest concern – even beyond his .291 OBP – is the lack of solid playing time. As of now, he looks like an occasional 3B with some 1B and OF mixed in.
Runner-up Worst – SP Phil Hughes, NYY: His pedigree trumps Trumbo at this point, but this is really the last year Hughes can live off the potential he showed as a prospect. He’s still yet to put together a really good season and there’s some worry about his job security with the Pettite signing. He’s 26 now and this season will likely show what kind of player he will be.
X Factor – SP Jhoulys Chacin, Urban: I like his groundball rate (55%) and his 7.0 K/9 but that 1.31 WHIP is largely the result of his control problems. If he can get that under control, the WHIP will drop and his 3.62 ERA could fall as well, then he becomes a top tier pitcher. Or he could regress and just be once of those volatile guys you like having on good days, but really can’t stand most of the time.
16th
Best – TIE 1B/OF Lucas Duda, Angry and 2B Danny Espinosa, Billy: Couldn’t decide because I really liked both of these guys here. I actually thought of taking Duda four rounds prior. He really did an excellent job in limited time last year, including a .370 OBP. Projected over the course of 550 abs, his 2011 production would be 70/18/91/.370 – that’s great value here and I think he’ll be better. Espinosa had an inconsistent rookie season, lowlighted by the .236 AVG, but his .323 OBP is actually positive. Only two others 2B had a higher AVG/OBP difference, meaning if Espinosa’s difference stays steady at .088 and his average lifts just a bit to .260, you’ve got a second baseman with 25/25 potential and a .350 OBP. Had him queued up myself.
Runner-up Best – RP Brandon League, Ring: He’s not the flashiest of closers, with a 6.6 K/9 – the lowest among project closers – but he’s got an incredible 60% groundball percentage and tidy 1.08 WHIP. Take out one week of severe underperformance last year, and he’d probably have an ERA below 2.00. He’s about as safe as they come and at this point in the draft, safe is good.
Worst – SP Daniel Bard, Angry: It sounds like he’s heading back to the bullpen, though that has not been announced. If he does make it to the rotation, I question how effective he’ll be with only two pitches. His appeal as a reliever is to get to 98 mph with ease. That doesn’t come so easy in the seventh inning if he makes it that long, considering he’s been in the bullpen since he was drafted. May be worth a shot later, but not here.
Runner-up Worst –OF Mike Trout, Clayton: Just a preference to not have AAA guys on my active roster, no matter how good they are. Bottom line is they’re taking up a spot for a bullpen or starter that could be helping you win every week. Meanwhile, you have to wait for probably two injuries or severe underperformance for him to get regular playing time. And even then, he wasn’t that good last year. I’d love to have him going into 2013, but not this year.
X Factor – OF Jose Tabata, Donkey: If he’s healthy, I think this is a steal because he’s shown a great ability to get on base and he could easily produce a 90/15/50/35/.360 line, which is great value here. At the same time, he’s just 23 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
17th
Best – 1B/OF Carlos Lee, Keepin: Houston’s offense just looks dreadful, but these lineups are usually the ones that produce nice surprises. Remember KC last year? No one thought much of Francoeur, Melky, or Gordon before the season. Someone will produce there and Lee will be there (in his contract year) in the middle of the lineup with a still productive bat that can knock in 100 and get on base 34% of the time. He is 37, so, like Hunter also taken this round by Pierce, the dropoff comes eventually and it usually hurts, but I bet he proves to be good value.
Runner-up Best – OF Matt Joyce, Keepin: Pierce filled up on OFs this round and Joyce could be the best. If he gets to hit against lefties this year and produces at some level, he could bring in a line of 80/25/90/15/.360. It’s a big “if” but it’s a chance worth taking.
Worst – SP Julio Teheran, Angry: A chance not worth taking in my mind, Teheran is 21 and wasn’t very good when he came up this year. I suspect Delgado gets a chance in the rotation before Julio and perhaps even Medlen. There’s great potential, but I just don’t see it coming this year.
Runner-up Worst – SP Ryan Vogelsong, One Nut: Where I had him ranked had him barely being drafted. He got very lucky last year (xFIP: 3.87) and guys just don’t have career years at 33 and go on to find consistent success year-to-year. His home ballpark will hide some of those blemishes, but he’s not anyone I’d go in the season expecting him to convert 68% of his starts to QS this year and a 2.71 ERA.
X Factor – SP Chris Sale, Angry: Of the converted relievers, he’s got the greatest potential to have immediate success with three good pitches, a K rate of 10, and recent history of starting. But the White Sox have shown every indication they don’t plan to compete this year and will be selling off parts, meaning they will keep close watch on his innings to make sure they have him full force next season.
18th
Best – 1B Gaby Sanchez, Angry: Drafted in the 14th round last year, he produces 72/19/78/.352 and he drops to the 18th? He’s not magnificent, but he’s good and gets on base and is a high quality UTIL. That said, I traded for him last year and he was absurdly awful and I dropped him. Still, I like him here.
Runner-up Best – OF Angel Pagan, Anal: In 2010, he surprised with a 80/11/69/37/.340 line before running into some injury problems for the Mets last year. I really like him in SF and in that lineup and expect something along the lines of 2010 if he’s healthy. He’s 31 and a free agent, so this is probably his last chance to get a good contract. Expect him to produce.
Worst – TIE: Victor Martinez, Moose, and RP Joakim Soria, Anal: Really? Why? There’s absolutely no reason to roster either of them. No one in their right mind would trade for either of these two with the hope of keeper production in 2013. Anyone who keeps a 35 year-told DH coming off a torn ACL or a closer coming off his second TJ surgery in a league where no closers were kept (not even the closer with the most dominating season since Gagne) should be charged a penalty. Actually, Brian and Andy should be fined for drafting these guys in the 18th. There’s still plenty of guys who will contribute this year available.
Runner-up Worst – SS Ian Desmond, Angry: My hunch is he doesn’t end the year with a starting spot, nor should he ever really be a starter in our league. Yes, 25 stolen bases is nice, but the rest is so bad it hurts your team.
X Factor – OF Delmon Young, Montezuma: Sort of your classic hit or miss – a guy whose had past success but never seems to be consistent or able to fully establish himself. Hitting fifth behind Fielder and Cabrera should give him plenty of RBI chances. Piece together his best years and you have yourself someone whose capable of a 80/21/112/14/.336 season – that’d work.
19th
Best – SP John Danks, Moose: This was probably the greatest value pick of the draft. I don’t think a whole lot of Danks, but he’s better than many of the guys taken at this point (certainly better than every pitcher in this round). He’s 27 and had three straight seasons of 195+ IP, sub 3.80 ERA, sub-1.28 WHIP, and 149-162 Ks prior to last season’s mediocrity. Not flashy, but productive and steady.
Runner-up Best – 2B Neil Walker, Anal: Another guys with solid numbers who dropped unexpectedly. He’s not great but pretty good and at a position were production isn’t always a given. Great value here.
Worst – SP Javier Vazquez, Anal: Yeah… he retired. Injured players, kids headed for the minors, now a retired player? What’s going on here, people?
Runner-up Worst – SP Brad Peacock, Angry and SP Trevor Bauer, Donkey – Off to the minors, no help here. Might not be that good when they do get called up. Not worth a spot in my opinion.
X Factor – SP Jonathan Sanchez, Keepin: He’s the classic wild hurler; you’ll get some 11 K one earned run games and some 8 ER in 2 IP games. He has 200 K upside… but I wasn’t going to take the chance.
20th
Best – RP Matt Thornton, One Nut: The last full-time closer available was great value here. Remember it wasn’t long ago the ChiSox signed him for closer money after several dominant seasons as a middle man. He might just take the job and flourish… until they trade him, but you don’t have to worry about that yet.
Runner-up Best – SP Erik Bedard, Prestige: One a per game basis, his numbers over the last few years would get him in the second round area, but he just can’t stay healthy for a full season. I had him last season and he was great when he played, striking out 8.7 per nine. At this point in the draft, he certainly a good pick considering he’s reportedly healthy and in a no stress situation.
Worst – C Miguel Olivio, Urban: A .253 OBP … .253 … not AVG, OBP … .253…
Runner-up Worst – C Devin Mesoraco, Angry: I like him long-term, but Hanigan is not slouch and they’ll probably split time. Isn’t really worth drafting if so because you don’t want a part-time catcher and you don’t want to carry two catchers.
X Factor – SP Scott Baker, Moose: I loved him before the injuries made me (and everyone else, obviously) question whether he’d make it through the season clean considering his elbow woes already. With most, you’d brush it off, but with him its just like Bedard – you expect something eventually. But when he’s on, he’s a high-K, low WHIP guys capable of dominating, so well worth the pick, but also might not pitch much.
21st
Best – OF Jason Kubel, Montezuma: Considering I thought he was a steal when I considered taking him in the 16th, I obviously thought I made out well here. Minnesota’s new stadium didn’t fit him, but he should love Arizona – other than the fact that he can’t DH anymore. I expect solid production across the board.
Runner-up Best – SS Stephen Drew, Keepin: Not a big Drew guy, but he’s definitely worthy of drafting before this point, even though he won’t start the season active. He’s solid, not spectacular, but you’ll take solid at this point in the draft. Now it’s just a matter of waiting. Good trade bait once he’s back.
Worst – 1B Anthony Rizzo, Urban: The primary reason he is the worst is the fact that he’s in the minors and the Cubs want to see what they have in LaHair. But he also was not just bad, he was downright awful in his stint last season. He’s got hope for the future, but this season he has no value and shouldn’t be on an active roster. Belt is both a better prospect and has better opportunities to play.
Runner-up Worst – 3B/OF Ty Wiggington, Anal: There’s just more value out there. He might get full time at bats while Howard sits, but there’s a reason no team has given him a chance to get established at a position – he’s a bench guy who can hold his own at a few positions. He’s capable of hot streaks, but can be quite awful. Certainly hope Andy plans to put Roberts at third and Walker at second because Wiggy’s a bench player at best.
X Factor – 1B/OF Brandon Belt, Ring: These types of picks are the reason Dagan has been as successful as he has. Belt has the talent to have gone 12 rounds earlier, he just needs the opportunity. If he gets full-time at bats, Dagan might not only have a steal, he might have a great keeper.
22nd
Best – SP Mike Leake, Ring: Another great pick for Dagan. His 6.3 K/9 are a little low, but he had a 3.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP even with his rough start. Meanwhile, 69% of his starts were quality starts, which is a great percentage. At the age of 24, I expect growth and for that K number to go up. Stellar pick this late in the game.
Runner-up Best – UTIL Matt Gamel, Donkey: He hasn’t had great success at the major league level, but he’s shown the ability in the minors and might be a great steal. With no 3B eligibility, he’s less valuable in Yahoo leagues. But if he hits 25 and 90 rbis with a respectable OBP, that perfect production from the UTIL slot.
Worst – RP Aroldis Chapman, Keepin: He just hasn’t shown enough to earn a spot in the Reds rotation or bullpen nor has he put up numbers worthy of starting in fantasy. Waiver wire fodder.
Runner-up Worst – RP Fernando Salas, Billy: Had a good season in 2011, but Motte is the man here and TLR isn’t the coach anymore. Not really worth owning.
X Factor – SP Brett Anderson, Montezuma: He’s reportedly ahead of schedule. If he comes back by the All-Star break as planned, he could be peaking at the right time. The risk is keeping only one open DL slot for half the season and the fact that he’s coming back from TJ surgery, so control might be an issue. But if he’s good, he’s proven he can contribute solidly when healthy.
23rd
Best – SS Jed Lowrie, Donkey: I like him here. He’s got some flexibility with 3B eligibility and he’s going to finally have a full season of at bats, provided he can stay healthy, which is no given. But he’ll be in a good spot in an albeit crappy lineup and could be a high quality bench guy.
Runner-up Best – 1B/2B/3B Daniel Murphy, Donkey: Another bench guys I really like. I actually like quite a few Mets this year and I’m anxious to see how Murphy does with full time at bats. He had a .362 OBP last year and fits in nicely when an infielder is sitting.
Worst – OF Jon Jay, Anal: He’s just really mediocre at best. If you take his rates from last year and spread it over 550 abs, you get a 67/12/44/7/.344 line. Yuck.
Runner-up Worst – 1B/OF Juan Rivera, Billy: He may bat fifth, but he shouldn’t. His 74 RBIs was OK I guess, but 11 homers? .319 OBP? 33 year old? I’d rather have someone with a hint of upside.
X Factor – C Chris Iannetta, Prestige: Ladies and gentlemen, the player with the highest difference between AVG and OBP last year. His .238 AVG is awful, but that .370 OBP is quite tasty. He’s got some pop as well and could hit 20 out. If he does, this will be one of the best picks of the draft.
24th
Best – SP Luke Hochevar, One Nut: His overall numbers weren’t great, but his second half was quite good. His 4.05 xFIP is more palatable than the 4.68 ERA and his nice, tidy 1.28 WHIP is good, while 5.8 K/9 could go up quite a bit. He’s 28, so if he’s ever going to live up to the number one pick in the MLB draft, this will be the year he starts to show it. And its these types of players that will allow teams with low picks like Jason to compete.
Runner-up Best – 2B Gordon Beckham, One Nut: Definitely worth a shot here. Funny to think he was a keeper a couple years ago, now he’s barely rosterable. But he’s shown glimpses of his potential in the past and perhaps this is the year it all comes together with a 80/20/80/20 season. Don’t hold your breath, but he could.
Worst – OF Grady Sizemore, Keepin: Believe me, he’s not worth the headache. Even when he comes back, how long will he be there? Not worth the DL slot.
Runner-up Worst – SP Roy Oswalt, Anal: This all changes if he signs with St. Louis before this weekend, but he’s not expected to pitch until June. Yeah, I’m not waiting that long. He wasn’t even that good when he was playing. Definitely not worth missing out on one of the early season hot starts to wait for his mediocrity.
X Factor – SP Jorge De La Rosa, Prestige: Would’ve picked him myself if I hadn’t take Anderson. He has the high K ability to be worth waiting until July for, but I wonder how much he’ll push himself to get back. He has a $13 million player option for 2013, meaning he gets to decide if he wants it or not. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he waits another month to come back to make sure he’s ready for 2013 and collect his money. But it’s a risk worth taking.
7th
Best – SP Matt Cain, Donkey: This was my top rated player available. Pierce did a remarkable job last year, particularly in the draft. But he made a major mistake by not dealing A-Rod and Cain. Both should’ve been keepers and would’ve helped many teams. Cain is consistent and particularly valuable in QS leagues. While he never seems to get Ws, he had the third highest number of QS and a remarkable 79% QS %. Kind of surprised he made it to the sixth spot, but there was a case for the other guys as well (Reynolds, Berkman, Bumgarner, and…)
Runner-up Best – 3B Alex Rodriquez, Billy: And this was my number two (again, Pierce, what were you thinking?) player. Obviously, not a great year and old, but still a talent at a shallow position made even more shallow by Troy’s hoarding of triplebaggers (Beltre and Aramis as well).
Worst – SP Daniel Hudson, Prestige: He’s fine, but not that great and doesn’t strikeout enough (6.4 per nine) to warrant being taken over guys like CJ Wilson, Latos, or Garza.
Runner-up Worst – C Joe Mauer, Keepin: I don’t have a real problem with Mauer. I had him as a guy I might take at 25 overall, but Pierce had to wait 84 picks before his next player and I think he could’ve addressed positions that were as deep. Miguel Montero is arguably better and he went four rounds later.
X Factor – SP Matt Moore, One Nut: Here comes Jason with the X factors… Moore could be an instant ace or he could struggle as most rookie pitchers do. Maybe an overdraft here, but if he’s really good, this might be the last time he’s ever available to be drafted.
8th
Best – SP Matt Garza, Grumpy: Garza had great K numbers (9.0 per nine) and was the third highest rated pitcher in my book, but was taken seventh. It worked out well for Casten, who really executed a smart strategy by keeping his talented offense and drafting the league’s deepest rotation in the early rounds, an incredible 16 picks in the first four. He took Garza, Beachy, Hanson, Luebke, Cuddyer in the 8th and all were drafted near where they should be.
Runner-up Best – SP Michael Pineda, Montezuma: Go me. Really though, when I went through who might be taken before I picked, I never imagined Pineda would be there. The upside is too high for a 23 year old. I assume some were put off by the new stadium and reports of velocity concerns, but I’m happy to get a great #2 to team with Hamels.
Worst – C Alex Avila, Clayton: Last year was great, but very unexpected. If he produces the same, this draft position is warranted, but it’s hard to expect that to happen for someone who doesn’t have the pedigree and only has one year under his belt. Namely though, I just thought catcher was a position where teams could wait, so this was a bit of an overdraft. But keep in mind, Russ had a lot of early picks so can’t knock it too much if this was one of his targets.
Runner-up Worst – SP Yu Darvish, Cowhide: Again, can’t blame Dave for taking a chance here since he also had a lot of early picks, but it’s a risk better taken, I believe, on a guy like Pineda, Beckett, Sanchez, or Morrow. He should be good, but we just never know until they pitch in a real game.
X Factor – TIE Brandon Beachy and Corey Luebke, Grumpy: Two guys who burst onto the seen and up drafts boards, largely due to their strikeout ability (10.7 and 9.9 per nine, respectively). But the bottom line is they only have started 42 games between the two of them, so regression is certainly possible, or they could both K over 200.
9th
Best – SP Anibal Sanchez, Ring: Shocking that he dropped this far. He strikes out 202 guys in 2012 and only gets drafted two rounds higher than in 2011? Dagan didn’t keep any pitchers but got a really good 1-2 combo in Latos and Sanchez to round out a good staff.
Runner-up Best – TIE RP Craig Kimbrel, Cowhide and OF Corey Hard, Grumpy: Couldn’t decide who I liked more. Hart was almost a keeper, but an injury made Troy reconsider and caused him drop farther than he should have; he was the ninth OF taken. And Dave later admitted to wanting Hellickson, but if he did, he would’ve ended up on my worst list here. I’ll get to Hell Boy in a second, but did you know Kimbrel had 10 more strikeouts last year than Hellickson? Think about that for a second. Go ahead. I’ll wait … That’s 127 Ks in 77 innings vs. 117 Ks in 189 innings. Kimbrel is a unique talent at RP and deserved to be drafted before this.
Worst – OF Ichiro Suzuki, Moose: One of those guys who rank higher in AVG leagues, his only real contribution in our league is SBs (he hasn’t scored more than 90 runs since 2008) and he turns 39 in October. He’s batting third this year, so perhaps that will help his RBIs, but really he’s just a pretty name with pretty mediocre stats.
Runner-up Worst – SS JJ Hardy, Clayton: Don’t get me wrong, I loved Hardy last year. But he doesn’t have the greatest health history and, honestly, he only contributes to three categories. With his lack of speed and inability to walk, he actually hurts a bit. I don’t blame Russ too much though. By keeping three pitchers, he needed to get offense.
X Factor – 1B Ike Davis, Donkey: I really liked Davis last year before he got hurt and I think it’s a great pick here to go a long with Cain and Ethier for an excellent first three round for Chris. But he comes with a bit of risk considering his health and the state of the Mets. But I expect this to turnout well.
10th
Best – 1B Carlos Pena, Montezuma: One of the reasons I’m happy with my draft. Eventhough I didn’t have a first rounder, I would’ve been very pleased getting my top three guys (Pineda, Swisher, and Pena) in rounds 1-3 and I got them in 2-4. One of the great ways of assessing hitters in our league versus magazines that rank based on AVG is to subtract OBP from AVG and see whose difference ranks highest. Pena’s .225 AVG vs. .357 OBP put him in the top five (along with Swisher). He’s a solid four-category producer here.
Runner-up Best – OF Logan Morrison, Donkey: I think he would’ve gone a lot sooner had he not had the injury issues, as he’s received a lot of hype in the offseason. But the hype is well deserved as he showed some power to go with his very good ability to get on base. A young guy who could blossom this year with a better lineup.
Worst – OF Jeff Francoeur, Billy: His .329 OBP was passable for a starting OF in our league last year, but did you know he’s had an OBP of .300 or lower (roughly) in four of his six major league seasons as a regular. That is just killer for that category. While that trend is quite clear, his 2012 stats were outliers in that he never stole more than 8 bags in one season before and hadn’t hit 20 homers since his first full season as a regular in 2006. I ranked him 66th among OFs, so, yes, an overdraft in my mind.
Runner-up Worst – SP Jeremy Hellickson, Donkey: xFIP is a stat that essentially is ERA when taking out fielding. Hellickson’s was 4.72, far worse than his actual 2.95 ERA. That doesn’t mean he’ll be John Lackey this year -- he did convert 69% of his starts into QSs – but there’s some risk here that 2011 was an illusion. He’s also got great pedigree and showed an ability to K in the minors despite his RA Dickey-like production last year (5.6 per nine), so he may deliver and be a top 50 pitcher. But there’s enough underlying statistics to be a bit concerned and lower his draft position. Not a bad #4 though.
X Factor – 3B Mike Moustakas, Urban: I would like this better if Dan hadn’t already taken a third basemen in the first round, which was his last pick up to this point. But it’s a pretty good chance to take on a guy who could ultimately be a top 10 3B in the 2013 draft. Or he could be Pedro Alvarez…
11th
Best – C Miguel Montero, Angry: Great pick here. One of the top catchers in my mind but went ninth. Montero is one of the few catchers that can contribute well in four of the five categories and, at 28, is in his prime and in a good offense.
Runner-up Best – SP Justin Masterson, Ring: Another quality pick by Dagan, Masterson was underrated and converted two-thirds of his starts into QSs. His 6.6 K/9 is decent and may improve this year, as he’s 27 and started figuring it our last year. Owning him last year, one of his greatest qualities was his lows weren’t all that low and he had some very good games.
Worst – 1B Ryan Howard, One Nut: This seemed like a typical Jason pick; there’s significant upside and it makes him feel better when he looks at his roster. But the risk is significant. Even if he comes back in late May, what kind of shape will he be in? I just think the risk doesn’t justify the draft position here. Might’ve got him much later. I know I wasn’t going to pick him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Edwin Jackson, Cowhide: There’s just a lot of mediocrity (58% QS%, 3.79 ERA [3.73 xFIP], 1.44 WHIP, 6.7 K/9) and volatility and he shouldn’t have gone before guys like Masterson, Holland, Wandy, Dempster, Niese, Cueto, Lewis… OK, I had a lot of guys before Edwin… 84, actually.
X Factor – 1B Adam Dunn, Grumpy: Perfect pick for Casten in that it is high enough that none of us with limited early picks would dare take the risk, but it was one of Casten’s last picks. Huge upside obviously and he’s had a great spring. Dunn is only 31, so he could recover easily… or he could be Richie Sexson – drop hard and never recover. But as someone who lived with him last year, it was just dreadful and one of the worst fantasy experiences of my life.
12th
Best – SP Jonathan Niese, Grumpy: At some points it seems like Casten has accessed my draft board somehow, as I had Niese pretty high based on his great K numbers (7.9 per nine) and xFIP (3.27 vs his 4.41 ERA). He is among a handful of pitchers I see taking the next step into the upper tier this year like Kennedy did for me last year. He has the pedigree and the skills.
Runner-up Best – SP Ryan Dempster, Donkey: I was shocked he was so bad at the beginning of last season, but he ended up putting together a pretty decent year considering, including a 8.5 K/9 and 3.70 xFIP vs. 4.80 ERA.
Worst – C JP Arencibia, Urban: This is probably the biggest overdraft of the year. Yes, 23 HR and 78 RBI is very good, but 47 R is really bad, .282 OBP is horrible, and 1 steal is probably one more than he’ll get this year. The next catcher to go was Wilson Ramos five rounds later and I’d much rather have him.
Runner-up Worst – SP Neftali Feliz, Angry: Kudos for filling in for Kyle and Gibby did a great job drafting offense, but this pitching staff is the worst I have ever seen in this league. Of the five starters chosen (yes, Kyle has only six starters total), three of them are converted relievers (Sale, Feliz, and Bard) and two were rookies, one of whom was already in the minors (Teheran and Peacock). They join Josh Johnson, who has his own issues. I love his starting offense, but there’s a lot of work to be done with pitching. Feliz has a lot of questions marks, not least of which – as with all converted relievers – is a likely innings cap.
X Factor – SP Francisco Liriano, Cowhide: Really like Dave’s staff, lead by Lincecum and Bumgarner. He’s got some really questions marks with Darvish, Jackson, Santana, Liriano, Carpenter, and Nolasco, but if they all reach their upside potential, the staff could be great. I’m very confident in Liriano this year and would’ve taken him next had he dropped.
13th
Best – RP Drew Storen, Montezuma: I give myself credit for leaping here despite my other obvious needs. I wanted to get one solid reliever, as Santos proved to me last year that one good reliever can keep you competitive in the saves category. Last year I waited until the 14th and was stuck with Franklin in the midst of a RP run. I started the run this year and got my #2 overall reliever. Nine more relievers went before my next pick.
Runner-up Best – 3B/OF Martin Prado, Angry: I’m not a big Prado guy, but I give him a pass on last year and think he’ll be a quality starting 3B this year. Considering there was basically no one left that I would want to begin the season as a starter, I think this was a good move.
Worst – RP Kenley Jensen, Cowhide: If there is a middle reliever worth drafting, Jensen is certainly the best with his 16.1 K/9. But he’s just not going to get saves immediately and might not at all. Guerra is actually pretty good. Give me Walden, Motte, or Betancourt. That said, I know Dave likes to have middle guys on his roster, so not surprising here.
Runner-up Worst – SP Doug Fister, Billy: Really not a bad round, so this is a it nit-picky, but I don’t think Fister is going to produce the way he did at the end of last season. I expect more of an ERA toward 4.00 and a K/9 under 6, so it’s not really a value pick here. I’d have gone with someone with a bit more upside here. (FYI, I don’t blame Casten for taking Madson here. No one thought he had a season-ending injury at this point).
X Factor – SS Dee Gordon, Urban: He has more value in an AVG league, but he just doesn’t walk, limiting his value to two categories really. But he could be REALLY valuable in the SB category. Or he could struggle and be sent back to the minors…
14th
Best – OF Nick Markakis, Moose: I am most decidedly not a Markakis fan and I believe I listed him as one of the worst picks last year, but this was very low for him to go, even with an injury. He’s not going to win you a championship, but he won’t lose it for you either. He’ll contribute solid production across the board and he’s only 28, so he certainly could have a career year at any point. I would’ve criticized this pick if it was in the 9th, but its great value here.
Runner-up Best – SP Brandon McCarthy, Donkey: One of my better hunches from last season, he really had a very good year (3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 64% QS%, and 6.5 K/9) and he has the park and the pedigree to improve in his age-28 season. He does have a bit of an injury history, however.
Worst – 2B/OF Ryan Raburn, Urban: We’ve seen this before. Hot springs do not equal great seasons. He had an awful OBP in 2011 and it’s unlikely he’ll suddenly change his ways at the age of 31 and have a career year, never mind one worth keeping in your lineup on a regular basis.
Runner-up Worst – SP Chris Carpenter, Cowhide: Medical issues were sort of up in the air at this point, but certainly we knew he’d miss time. He could miss the whole year, but there’s no way to know. Still, Dave had a lot of early picks, so not a bad chance to take.
X Factor – RP Jordan Walden, Ring: I really like Walden and his K ability (10 per nine) but he blew a lot of saves last year and this is an Angels team that wants to win now. If he struggles, he’ll be replaced. Or he could recover and be the best RP in baseball.
15th
Best – 2B Kelly Johnson, Cowhide: I really like Johnson this year. Hitting in the #2 hole before Joey Bats could bring him back to the production level he experienced in Arizona that made him a keeper. Think a 93/26/71/13/.370 would be valuable? He’s only done it once, but if he does it again, Rickie Weeks will be Dave’s second best second baseman.
Runner-up Best – SS Jhonny Peralta, Keepin: As his owner for much of last year, Peralta’s number were under the radar but very good for the shortstop position, where 21 hrs and 86 rbis are hard to come by. His .345 OBP was a little high compared to his career .330, but that’s a very good lineup in Detroit and he’s only 30.
Worst – 1B/OF Mark Trumbo, Prestige: I know, 29 homers is great and 87 RBIs is good, but what else does he offer? If he gains 3B eligibility, I can understand keeping him as a flexible bench option, but this was too early to draft him in my mind. The biggest concern – even beyond his .291 OBP – is the lack of solid playing time. As of now, he looks like an occasional 3B with some 1B and OF mixed in.
Runner-up Worst – SP Phil Hughes, NYY: His pedigree trumps Trumbo at this point, but this is really the last year Hughes can live off the potential he showed as a prospect. He’s still yet to put together a really good season and there’s some worry about his job security with the Pettite signing. He’s 26 now and this season will likely show what kind of player he will be.
X Factor – SP Jhoulys Chacin, Urban: I like his groundball rate (55%) and his 7.0 K/9 but that 1.31 WHIP is largely the result of his control problems. If he can get that under control, the WHIP will drop and his 3.62 ERA could fall as well, then he becomes a top tier pitcher. Or he could regress and just be once of those volatile guys you like having on good days, but really can’t stand most of the time.
16th
Best – TIE 1B/OF Lucas Duda, Angry and 2B Danny Espinosa, Billy: Couldn’t decide because I really liked both of these guys here. I actually thought of taking Duda four rounds prior. He really did an excellent job in limited time last year, including a .370 OBP. Projected over the course of 550 abs, his 2011 production would be 70/18/91/.370 – that’s great value here and I think he’ll be better. Espinosa had an inconsistent rookie season, lowlighted by the .236 AVG, but his .323 OBP is actually positive. Only two others 2B had a higher AVG/OBP difference, meaning if Espinosa’s difference stays steady at .088 and his average lifts just a bit to .260, you’ve got a second baseman with 25/25 potential and a .350 OBP. Had him queued up myself.
Runner-up Best – RP Brandon League, Ring: He’s not the flashiest of closers, with a 6.6 K/9 – the lowest among project closers – but he’s got an incredible 60% groundball percentage and tidy 1.08 WHIP. Take out one week of severe underperformance last year, and he’d probably have an ERA below 2.00. He’s about as safe as they come and at this point in the draft, safe is good.
Worst – SP Daniel Bard, Angry: It sounds like he’s heading back to the bullpen, though that has not been announced. If he does make it to the rotation, I question how effective he’ll be with only two pitches. His appeal as a reliever is to get to 98 mph with ease. That doesn’t come so easy in the seventh inning if he makes it that long, considering he’s been in the bullpen since he was drafted. May be worth a shot later, but not here.
Runner-up Worst –OF Mike Trout, Clayton: Just a preference to not have AAA guys on my active roster, no matter how good they are. Bottom line is they’re taking up a spot for a bullpen or starter that could be helping you win every week. Meanwhile, you have to wait for probably two injuries or severe underperformance for him to get regular playing time. And even then, he wasn’t that good last year. I’d love to have him going into 2013, but not this year.
X Factor – OF Jose Tabata, Donkey: If he’s healthy, I think this is a steal because he’s shown a great ability to get on base and he could easily produce a 90/15/50/35/.360 line, which is great value here. At the same time, he’s just 23 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
17th
Best – 1B/OF Carlos Lee, Keepin: Houston’s offense just looks dreadful, but these lineups are usually the ones that produce nice surprises. Remember KC last year? No one thought much of Francoeur, Melky, or Gordon before the season. Someone will produce there and Lee will be there (in his contract year) in the middle of the lineup with a still productive bat that can knock in 100 and get on base 34% of the time. He is 37, so, like Hunter also taken this round by Pierce, the dropoff comes eventually and it usually hurts, but I bet he proves to be good value.
Runner-up Best – OF Matt Joyce, Keepin: Pierce filled up on OFs this round and Joyce could be the best. If he gets to hit against lefties this year and produces at some level, he could bring in a line of 80/25/90/15/.360. It’s a big “if” but it’s a chance worth taking.
Worst – SP Julio Teheran, Angry: A chance not worth taking in my mind, Teheran is 21 and wasn’t very good when he came up this year. I suspect Delgado gets a chance in the rotation before Julio and perhaps even Medlen. There’s great potential, but I just don’t see it coming this year.
Runner-up Worst – SP Ryan Vogelsong, One Nut: Where I had him ranked had him barely being drafted. He got very lucky last year (xFIP: 3.87) and guys just don’t have career years at 33 and go on to find consistent success year-to-year. His home ballpark will hide some of those blemishes, but he’s not anyone I’d go in the season expecting him to convert 68% of his starts to QS this year and a 2.71 ERA.
X Factor – SP Chris Sale, Angry: Of the converted relievers, he’s got the greatest potential to have immediate success with three good pitches, a K rate of 10, and recent history of starting. But the White Sox have shown every indication they don’t plan to compete this year and will be selling off parts, meaning they will keep close watch on his innings to make sure they have him full force next season.
18th
Best – 1B Gaby Sanchez, Angry: Drafted in the 14th round last year, he produces 72/19/78/.352 and he drops to the 18th? He’s not magnificent, but he’s good and gets on base and is a high quality UTIL. That said, I traded for him last year and he was absurdly awful and I dropped him. Still, I like him here.
Runner-up Best – OF Angel Pagan, Anal: In 2010, he surprised with a 80/11/69/37/.340 line before running into some injury problems for the Mets last year. I really like him in SF and in that lineup and expect something along the lines of 2010 if he’s healthy. He’s 31 and a free agent, so this is probably his last chance to get a good contract. Expect him to produce.
Worst – TIE: Victor Martinez, Moose, and RP Joakim Soria, Anal: Really? Why? There’s absolutely no reason to roster either of them. No one in their right mind would trade for either of these two with the hope of keeper production in 2013. Anyone who keeps a 35 year-told DH coming off a torn ACL or a closer coming off his second TJ surgery in a league where no closers were kept (not even the closer with the most dominating season since Gagne) should be charged a penalty. Actually, Brian and Andy should be fined for drafting these guys in the 18th. There’s still plenty of guys who will contribute this year available.
Runner-up Worst – SS Ian Desmond, Angry: My hunch is he doesn’t end the year with a starting spot, nor should he ever really be a starter in our league. Yes, 25 stolen bases is nice, but the rest is so bad it hurts your team.
X Factor – OF Delmon Young, Montezuma: Sort of your classic hit or miss – a guy whose had past success but never seems to be consistent or able to fully establish himself. Hitting fifth behind Fielder and Cabrera should give him plenty of RBI chances. Piece together his best years and you have yourself someone whose capable of a 80/21/112/14/.336 season – that’d work.
19th
Best – SP John Danks, Moose: This was probably the greatest value pick of the draft. I don’t think a whole lot of Danks, but he’s better than many of the guys taken at this point (certainly better than every pitcher in this round). He’s 27 and had three straight seasons of 195+ IP, sub 3.80 ERA, sub-1.28 WHIP, and 149-162 Ks prior to last season’s mediocrity. Not flashy, but productive and steady.
Runner-up Best – 2B Neil Walker, Anal: Another guys with solid numbers who dropped unexpectedly. He’s not great but pretty good and at a position were production isn’t always a given. Great value here.
Worst – SP Javier Vazquez, Anal: Yeah… he retired. Injured players, kids headed for the minors, now a retired player? What’s going on here, people?
Runner-up Worst – SP Brad Peacock, Angry and SP Trevor Bauer, Donkey – Off to the minors, no help here. Might not be that good when they do get called up. Not worth a spot in my opinion.
X Factor – SP Jonathan Sanchez, Keepin: He’s the classic wild hurler; you’ll get some 11 K one earned run games and some 8 ER in 2 IP games. He has 200 K upside… but I wasn’t going to take the chance.
20th
Best – RP Matt Thornton, One Nut: The last full-time closer available was great value here. Remember it wasn’t long ago the ChiSox signed him for closer money after several dominant seasons as a middle man. He might just take the job and flourish… until they trade him, but you don’t have to worry about that yet.
Runner-up Best – SP Erik Bedard, Prestige: One a per game basis, his numbers over the last few years would get him in the second round area, but he just can’t stay healthy for a full season. I had him last season and he was great when he played, striking out 8.7 per nine. At this point in the draft, he certainly a good pick considering he’s reportedly healthy and in a no stress situation.
Worst – C Miguel Olivio, Urban: A .253 OBP … .253 … not AVG, OBP … .253…
Runner-up Worst – C Devin Mesoraco, Angry: I like him long-term, but Hanigan is not slouch and they’ll probably split time. Isn’t really worth drafting if so because you don’t want a part-time catcher and you don’t want to carry two catchers.
X Factor – SP Scott Baker, Moose: I loved him before the injuries made me (and everyone else, obviously) question whether he’d make it through the season clean considering his elbow woes already. With most, you’d brush it off, but with him its just like Bedard – you expect something eventually. But when he’s on, he’s a high-K, low WHIP guys capable of dominating, so well worth the pick, but also might not pitch much.
21st
Best – OF Jason Kubel, Montezuma: Considering I thought he was a steal when I considered taking him in the 16th, I obviously thought I made out well here. Minnesota’s new stadium didn’t fit him, but he should love Arizona – other than the fact that he can’t DH anymore. I expect solid production across the board.
Runner-up Best – SS Stephen Drew, Keepin: Not a big Drew guy, but he’s definitely worthy of drafting before this point, even though he won’t start the season active. He’s solid, not spectacular, but you’ll take solid at this point in the draft. Now it’s just a matter of waiting. Good trade bait once he’s back.
Worst – 1B Anthony Rizzo, Urban: The primary reason he is the worst is the fact that he’s in the minors and the Cubs want to see what they have in LaHair. But he also was not just bad, he was downright awful in his stint last season. He’s got hope for the future, but this season he has no value and shouldn’t be on an active roster. Belt is both a better prospect and has better opportunities to play.
Runner-up Worst – 3B/OF Ty Wiggington, Anal: There’s just more value out there. He might get full time at bats while Howard sits, but there’s a reason no team has given him a chance to get established at a position – he’s a bench guy who can hold his own at a few positions. He’s capable of hot streaks, but can be quite awful. Certainly hope Andy plans to put Roberts at third and Walker at second because Wiggy’s a bench player at best.
X Factor – 1B/OF Brandon Belt, Ring: These types of picks are the reason Dagan has been as successful as he has. Belt has the talent to have gone 12 rounds earlier, he just needs the opportunity. If he gets full-time at bats, Dagan might not only have a steal, he might have a great keeper.
22nd
Best – SP Mike Leake, Ring: Another great pick for Dagan. His 6.3 K/9 are a little low, but he had a 3.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP even with his rough start. Meanwhile, 69% of his starts were quality starts, which is a great percentage. At the age of 24, I expect growth and for that K number to go up. Stellar pick this late in the game.
Runner-up Best – UTIL Matt Gamel, Donkey: He hasn’t had great success at the major league level, but he’s shown the ability in the minors and might be a great steal. With no 3B eligibility, he’s less valuable in Yahoo leagues. But if he hits 25 and 90 rbis with a respectable OBP, that perfect production from the UTIL slot.
Worst – RP Aroldis Chapman, Keepin: He just hasn’t shown enough to earn a spot in the Reds rotation or bullpen nor has he put up numbers worthy of starting in fantasy. Waiver wire fodder.
Runner-up Worst – RP Fernando Salas, Billy: Had a good season in 2011, but Motte is the man here and TLR isn’t the coach anymore. Not really worth owning.
X Factor – SP Brett Anderson, Montezuma: He’s reportedly ahead of schedule. If he comes back by the All-Star break as planned, he could be peaking at the right time. The risk is keeping only one open DL slot for half the season and the fact that he’s coming back from TJ surgery, so control might be an issue. But if he’s good, he’s proven he can contribute solidly when healthy.
23rd
Best – SS Jed Lowrie, Donkey: I like him here. He’s got some flexibility with 3B eligibility and he’s going to finally have a full season of at bats, provided he can stay healthy, which is no given. But he’ll be in a good spot in an albeit crappy lineup and could be a high quality bench guy.
Runner-up Best – 1B/2B/3B Daniel Murphy, Donkey: Another bench guys I really like. I actually like quite a few Mets this year and I’m anxious to see how Murphy does with full time at bats. He had a .362 OBP last year and fits in nicely when an infielder is sitting.
Worst – OF Jon Jay, Anal: He’s just really mediocre at best. If you take his rates from last year and spread it over 550 abs, you get a 67/12/44/7/.344 line. Yuck.
Runner-up Worst – 1B/OF Juan Rivera, Billy: He may bat fifth, but he shouldn’t. His 74 RBIs was OK I guess, but 11 homers? .319 OBP? 33 year old? I’d rather have someone with a hint of upside.
X Factor – C Chris Iannetta, Prestige: Ladies and gentlemen, the player with the highest difference between AVG and OBP last year. His .238 AVG is awful, but that .370 OBP is quite tasty. He’s got some pop as well and could hit 20 out. If he does, this will be one of the best picks of the draft.
24th
Best – SP Luke Hochevar, One Nut: His overall numbers weren’t great, but his second half was quite good. His 4.05 xFIP is more palatable than the 4.68 ERA and his nice, tidy 1.28 WHIP is good, while 5.8 K/9 could go up quite a bit. He’s 28, so if he’s ever going to live up to the number one pick in the MLB draft, this will be the year he starts to show it. And its these types of players that will allow teams with low picks like Jason to compete.
Runner-up Best – 2B Gordon Beckham, One Nut: Definitely worth a shot here. Funny to think he was a keeper a couple years ago, now he’s barely rosterable. But he’s shown glimpses of his potential in the past and perhaps this is the year it all comes together with a 80/20/80/20 season. Don’t hold your breath, but he could.
Worst – OF Grady Sizemore, Keepin: Believe me, he’s not worth the headache. Even when he comes back, how long will he be there? Not worth the DL slot.
Runner-up Worst – SP Roy Oswalt, Anal: This all changes if he signs with St. Louis before this weekend, but he’s not expected to pitch until June. Yeah, I’m not waiting that long. He wasn’t even that good when he was playing. Definitely not worth missing out on one of the early season hot starts to wait for his mediocrity.
X Factor – SP Jorge De La Rosa, Prestige: Would’ve picked him myself if I hadn’t take Anderson. He has the high K ability to be worth waiting until July for, but I wonder how much he’ll push himself to get back. He has a $13 million player option for 2013, meaning he gets to decide if he wants it or not. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he waits another month to come back to make sure he’s ready for 2013 and collect his money. But it’s a risk worth taking.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Pre-Draft Power Ranking
The ability to trade draft picks has surely changed the complexion of the league heading into the draft next week (Wed, Mar 21, 8:30 pm) and has left several teams with an embarrassment of riches and others with a rather large hole to dig out of. For this analysis, I factored in the strength of keepers with the draft picks to develop a sort of power ranking headed into the draft. The process included giving each keeper a score of 1-5 (the top four guys in my mind got an additional 0.5, while no starting pitchers--due to the depth of the position and lack of ability to help in five categories--was awarded a 5). This is based solely on their impact for 2012. For example, Bryce Harper, while a nice keeper, was awarded no points based on the fact that he is likely to start the season in AAA. This does not take into account the keeperability of the players.
1. Clayton & the King
Russ holds the top spot namely because Casten is keeping Harper and Heyward, for which I hardly blame him. His three first round picks are slightly less valuable than Casten’s five second rounders, but Russ will have all his picking done by the 11th and Casten by the 8th—in stark contrast to Andy, who has one pick in the first 10 rounds. Ouch. Perhaps unjustly, Russ is not deducted for keeping three pitchers—something rarely done in the league. But with such depth available at SP, perhaps having such forces in the pitching categories will be key to his success.
2. GRUMPY MUNCHKINS
Boosted by two of the four 5.5s, Miguel, Pujols, Cutch, and Reyes are by far the most dominating foursome of keepers in the league. Heyward is tough to peg though, as he’s still very young and has only one half season of fantasy dominance under his belt, while Harper has none. And with six of the top 23 picks, Casten is sure to be pleasuring himself by the end of the second round. Perhaps then his computer will malfunction and the autopick will give him VMart and Scott Sizemore. Otherwise, Casten could crush us all.
3. Donkey Punchers
Chris has a lot of depth with his keepers and was really helped by his trade with Kyle, both on the keeper and pick front. For a 2011 playoff team, his picks are pretty well spread out with no sizable gaps in between. This will be the last year Joey Bats is eligible at 3B, but he is no doubt going to fuel the offense that has a nice start in the OBP category, as well as some high-K starters
4. Moose is Loose
Anchored by Tulo, Brian’s keepers fall off quite a bit after him but are all pretty solid. He doesn’t have any picks in the last four rounds and has three thirds, which could help bring him back to fantasy glory.
5. Cowhide Joyride
I expected Dave to come in higher but his keepers, while quite good, just didn’t add up to the same level as the top four. Posey is coming back from a leg injury and Andrus is really a two-category pony at this point, but most forget he is only 23 so the power could develop and his OBP is trending upward, so I would rank him higher as a keeper than for 2012. Dave’s picks are set up great as he will be done in the 11th, but he falls behind Russ and Brandon because he still only has one pick in each of the first four rounds.
6. Ring of Fire
Seems like Dagan’s keepers rarely change from year to year, which I suppose is in keeping with his propensity to not fudge with his roster very much. Considering his dominance over the years, it clearly puts him above the rest in terms of being one of the top drafters. And despite his run at a championship last year, he maintained most of his picks.
7. Prestige Worldwide
The commish’s picks are pretty well spread out and he’s got some high level keepers in AGone, Longo and Grandy, but even though he’s at a shallow position, Assdribble only has one quality season under his belt and Stubbs only had a mediocre 2011 even though his potential is considerable.
8. (Tie) Montezuma’s Revenge
Definitely among the worst in terms of picks, my keepers make up the difference with some youthful talent in Santana and JUpton. While both ranked high by many mags, I temper expectations for 2012 when it comes to Lawrie and Hosmer since neither have played a full season yet.
8. (Tie) One Nut Wonders
With a three-way tie for eighth, all of the final four playoff teams find themselves in the middle of the pack. Jason would probably fall a spot if Braun’s suspension didn’t get overturned, but he’s pretty well situated for a team that finished the regular season in second, maintaining six picks in the first five rounds and some quality keepers.
8. (Tie) Keepin it Real…
Pierce’s rather dreadful draft position—a product of his successful championship run in 2011—hurt his overall position that include the second best group of keepers by my ranking. He only has two picks in the first eight rounds and really should’ve done something with the players he had (namely Cain and ARod) to help himself in the offseason. Championship hangover?
11. Billy Chapel
Troy’s trade with Montezuma helped his overall position going into 2012 as his lack of interest in trading picks keeps him in solid shape for the draft, including the top pick. He gets a big demerit for keeping Morales, who still hasn’t returned to regular baseball (despite positive reports) and is impossible to give credit for considering he might go two years in between plate appearances.
12. Angry Pirates
Kyle only has three picks in the first four rounds, but the rest of his draft board is largely in good shape. He’s got Giancarlo (extra points for the name change) with decent guys in Starlin and Cruz, followed by JJ, Ackley, and Freeman who have either health or youth to overcome.
13. Anal Hershiser
Decent keepers allowed Andy to stay out of the cellar as he is easily in the worst shape in terms of draft picks, with an incredible eight-round wait following the first round (that first pick better be a doozy). He makes up for some of the lost picks in rounds 10-13, when he has 11 picks. Unfortunately for him, his roster was full of guy who were good but fell just under the keeper threshold, making it difficult to deal for picks.
14. Urban Achievers
Even though Dan declared himself out early on last summer, he didn’t do a whole lot to improve his position. His trade in the offseason helped his keepers, but not enough to surpass anyone else on the list, namely because Gio and Chris Young simply aren’t worthy of being drafted in the first six rounds. His biggest problem heading into 2012 is he’s only got two picks in the first five rounds.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)