Monday, May 7, 2018

Week 5 Real Rankings


NOTES
It may take a while for a front runner to emerge here. There does seem to be a general top tier developing with Thor and Tomahawk remaining consistent and around 6.0, but they're a bad week from being in a group of eight teams around 6.50-7.00.  The key has been their consistency, as shown in the VAR column and the relative balance of their hitting and pitching.  The group  in the 7.50-8.00 range are a couple decent weeks from joining that middle tier too. 

Then, there's Cowhide Joyride in a tier all by himself and the obvious candidate to sell early a la Sexual Napalm in 2015, Angry Pirates in 2016, and Brokeback in 2017 -- all of which produced relatively successful turnarounds.


I know I've been saying it for years, but just in case you think it's my own unsupported anti-RP bias, let's take a look at the S+H leaders  Archie Bradley, Wade Davis, Edwin Díaz, Juan Nicasio, Brad Boxberger, José Alvarado, Josh Hader, Chaz Roe, Jeurys Familia, Brad Hand, Adam Ottavino, Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris.  That's 13 RPs with 9 or more SH, 6 of which were not drafted at all. Only 3 (Diaz, Hand, Kimbrel) were drafted among the 10 highest drafted RPs.  On top of the general unreliability of them producing the one category they control, their contribution to the other categories is another consideration. With an average of 3 IP per week, each RP accounts for approximately 4% of the total for the week.  The average SP is 5.5 IP per outing, when you factor in multiple starts, its around 7 IP per starter per week, or 9.5% per starter. So while they K at a higher rate and have generally better rates, the weekly impact of most RPs is negligible because the inning totals K totals are less than half that of starters and the difference in rates (average of 3.71/1.21 for SPs and 2.92/1.10 for RPs this year) is not significant enough to dramatically improve rates. Their overall contribution is essentially 1.50 categories, which is consistent with their overall contribution to the actual game on an individual basis. This supports the role we've developed for RPs in our league and their overall contribution/value of our league.

Could this change? Certainly. Some MLB teams outright avoid having their SPs go through a lineup a third time as advanced analytics have supported such a move. This threatens the viability of the QS category, but makes the alternative (W) even less appealing. Something to contemplate.

Speaking of things to contemplate, I heard an interesting strategy for leagues struggling with the DL designation dilemma - no limit, no stash DLs.  Your roster could be 40 people as long as they were placed on the DL while on your roster. There would be no picking up DL players to "stash". I love that idea, though its an administrative nightmare I don't see Yahoo addressing any time soon. There are other more customizable platforms that could facilitate this apparently. We've always been a Yahoo league, but that is something to think about. Hopefully Yahoo attempts to address it creatively. I hate having teams be shorthanded because a valuable contributor gets place on the DL.

Thank you to those who have paid their dues. If you have not, please go to https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/10469/finances and see what you owe.

Updated individual player rankings.  There's a lot of first round types in there, with some interesting emerging pitchers and steals like Ozzie Albies, Mitch Haniger, and Javier Baez:








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