Final Real Rankings for 2017

NOTES

Congratulations to Kyle on winning his first regular season championship and completing the very difficult “worst to first” transition with almost no statistical support from the Real Rankings. Heartbreaking loss for Donkey, who has been a mainstay in the Actual Standings and Real Ranking all season, but who fell victim to a streaming buzzsaw in the revitalized One Nut Wonders.

What an incredible end to the season – by far the most suspenseful in league history.  Think about what we saw:

·         A perceived three-way battle for the final two spots by One Nut, Ring, and Montezumas, which was won by… All three of them as Thor’s gets booted the minute Luis Severino converts the final start of the week into a QS and shuts down a BOS offense to give Keep Off Groin a 0.14 lead in ERA.  Sal Ramono nearly converted a QS earlier, but fell 1/3 of an inning short.

·         Thor, boosted by 2.5 games thanks to Stroman missing the innings limit one week, ultimately lands in 9th, where he would’ve already been had Stroman reached the inning limit.  While unfortunate for Shomphe, it would’ve been awful to have a team miss the playoffs due to such a direct and silly mistake.

·         In the process of attempting to battle his way back from the depths of the standings only a few weeks ago, One Nut sweeps one of the best teams of the past few seasons in Donkey Punchers, vaulting him from 9th to 6th – and knocking the long-time top seed to second place.

·         The top seed, with 25% of the winnings coming his way, is Kyle, who finishes the year SEVENTH in Real Rankings. This shows a level of luck never witnessed before.

·         In such a tight and meaningful battle for playoffs spots, One Nut, Ring, and Montezumas post the three highest Real Rankings for the week.

This season tested the viability of the Real Rankings in a way we have never seen, not even close.  SIX teams ended with Real Rankings three or more places away from the actual standings. My only explanation is that, thanks to the 10-day DL and a shockingly busy trade market, there was more roster turnover than ever before, meaning the teams that registered scores in week 1 were far different than the roster at the end of week 21.

That said, the Real Rankings weren’t too far off in terms of reflecting the playoff picture. The Real Rankings would’ve replaced One Nut with Thor, but otherwise the constituency of 1-8th were the same, if not ordered correctly.

In addition to being the top Real Ranking teams to end the season, the same three teams dominated the final four weeks of the regular season. Coming in fourth is your regular season champion.

	LAST FOUR WEEKS
1	Ring of Fire	5.05
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.55
3	One Nut Wonders	5.75
4	The Angry Pirates	6.38
5	Cowhide Joyride	6.55
6	Stroman my Cobb Odor	6.68
7	Livin' on a Correa	6.83
8	Donkey Punchers	7.25
9	Sexual Napalm	7.73
10	Thor's Hammered	7.83
11	Anal Hershiser	8.03
12	Keep Off Groin	8.20
13	Brokeback Moundmen	8.80
14	Moose is Loose!	9.38

Among the playoffs teams, Anal has slid the most as the regular season came to an end. Donkey didn’t do much better either. Both teams appear at risk of early exits if their teams don’t turn it around quickly.

If you look at the ranking over the second half of the season, you see some rather severe slides by LOC and Anal.  Meanwhile, the last 4 and last 10 numbers confirm that Stroman might have been better off buying instead of a selling.  Jeff could’ve easily been one of the hotter teams heading into the playoffs. 

While it doesn’t often get discussed the “VAR” column in the overall rankings calculates the variance among a set of values. Essentially, it shows who has been the most volatile and most stable for the season.  This number should give Jeff some relief that his confusion on how to move forward with his team was warranted. The most volatiles teams were Stroman (4.3), Montezumas (4.2), and One Nut (4.1). Stroman decided to sell and his team still competed; Montezumas roster always looked better than the production; and One Nut decided to buy when the numbers said to sell. 

Meanwhile, VAR shows the most consistent teams were Thor (1.7), Keep Off Groin (1.8), and Moose (1.9).  For Moose, this a horrible affirmation of what was a lost season that started with missing the draft entirely. For KOG, it supports Dan’s decision to sell, as there were probably more parts needed than he could acquire to compete. And for Thor, this seems like just the opposite end of Angry Pirates luck spectrum – his team competed consistently and was incredibly balanced (6th place for hitting and pitching), despite losing Syndergaard early on and dropping Conforto and Gallo outright. Shomphe had all the makings of a playoff team.

	FINAL 10 WEEKS
1	Donkey Punchers	5.87
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.89
3	Ring of Fire	6.29
4	The Angry Pirates	6.41
5	One Nut Wonders	6.51
6	Cowhide Joyride	6.75
7	Stroman my Cobb Odor	6.87
8	Sexual Napalm	7.21
9	Thor's Hammered	7.31
10	Livin' on a Correa	7.36
11	Anal Hershiser	7.65
12	Keep Off Groin	8.07
13	Brokeback Moundmen	8.51
14	Moose is Loose!	9.22

With that in mind, the first six picks in the draft will be:  (1) Thor, (2) S. Napalm, (3) Stroman, (4) Keep off Groin, (5) Brokeback, (6) Moose. At least there’s that, Shomphe. Gibby was two games away from having the first and second overall pick (if Montezumas ended 9th).

Five teams hit the transaction limit of 60  and Thor was 59. We will need to do something about the transaction limit next season. I’ve started to at least question whether one is necessary. While I don’t like streaming your way to victory, the lack of quality pitching this season makes this practice even less likely to be successful. But do we want teams streaming rosters on a daily basis? Conceivably, you could dedicate spots just to matchups. It would not be difficult to get 162 games from the catching position simply by streaming the position in perpetuity (I know I would consider this). One thing I am quite sure of it whether the team is active or passive managed has little to no correlation on the success of the team.  After that, the question is how liberal we want to allow game play to be.

With most teams rostering 8-12 starters and so few of them producing, we may see far more SPs kept than every before. Traditionally, the league has been pretty consistent at around 30% SPs and the rest hitters.

Three DL spots seemed to be plenty, but there could be an argument for more. We could consider allowing more picks to be traded during the season (maybe just restrict 7-9). There’s a few other things that could be tightened up, but now is a good time to note anything you would like to see change in the league since it’s fresh in your mind.

Every team (including non-playoff teams) gets three adds per playoff week. There are no injury exemptions this year.

Finally, if you are planning on leaving the league or even just considering it, please let me know asap. You don’t have to let anyone else in the league know, but it helps me plan going forward and allows me to start gauging interest from people who have previously expressed interest in joining the league

Open Trading Period Trade Review - Part 3

MOOSE Receives:

Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,3B

Josh Reddick Hou - OF

Round 7

Round 10

ANAL Receives:

Khris Davis Oak - OF

Melky Cabrera KC - OF

Round 15

Round 15

Sneaking in just before the deadline, Anal saved up his protected picks to deal for Khrush in what was a hefty price in terms of quality of picks, but perfectly reasonable from the standpoint of total picks (13 rounds). Melky has been no slouch either and Davis is once again showing how little he is deterred by Oakland’s massive stadium and shitty roster (on pace for 94/44/113/3/.323). Anal needed an insertion before the playoffs started and this was a massive piece to insert into Anal’s rather large hole, which is sure to be a highly pleasurable experience for the giver and the taker in this deal.

On a side note, the deal put Moose over the top for the best draftboard heading into the offseason, with two firsts, two seconds, two fourths, and four fifths, while ending the draft  by the 16^th. There’s still some work that needs to be done with his keepers (Judge, Gallo, and a bunch of old guys with poor prodciton – CarGos 1&2, the other Chris Davis, Kinsler, Cueto, Kemp, etc), but he’s in a good position to upgrade and still have one of the best draftboards for 2018. Nice work Brian.

            

ONE NUT receives:

Sean Manaea Oak - P

Round 20

MONTEZUMAS receives:

Round 16

               

After proving to be well worth the 11 rounds I gave up for him two months earlier, Manaea started to meltdown big time as his velocity dipped in the three starts prior to the trade.  The trend continued to the point where I knew he would be at most volatile heading down the stretch. Jason picked him up for short money, but ditched him after two starts (one good, one bad) during his run to the playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs going forward because he has keeper-level talent when he is on, but can be unrosterable when he is off.

            

MONTEZUMAS receives:

Luis Castillo Cin - P

BROKEBACK receives:

Rhys Hoskins Phi - 1B

What seemed like a relatively minor deal at the time could change the course of both teams for years to come. I had picked up Hoskins as an NA shortly before he was called up. I tried him in the lineup for a few days before the deadline and he didn’t produce much, so when I asked Matt what he wanted for Castillo and he said he’d do Derek Fisher or Hoskins straight up, I of course chose to keep Fisher. Well, Hoskins is one of those players whose minor league stat line that projects to real quality performance immediately in the bigs (low K rate, high walk rate, consistent power), much like Bellinger. Well he went off big time after the trade  - 21/12/26/0/.449 in 75 ABs!! Through 25 games, his 162-game average is currently 143/78/175/0/.419!  He will come back to Earth, but this is the type of late-season callup performance like Gary Sanchez and Trea Turner that turns minor decision in the franchise-changing additions.

The move nearly cost Montezumas a playoff spot, but the team hasn’t exactly suffered because of the deal. Castillo has been even better than his surface numbers suggest, and his surface numbers show a 162-game average of 3.31/1.13 with 214 K and 20 QS.  The sample size is more reasonable too, with 81 big league innings.  He ended up being a big asset for a pitching staff that led Montezumas to the playoffs and has the profile of a potential keeper as well. The question is whether he’ll be shutdown before I can realize his total value for the season

            

KOG receives:

Mark Trumbo Bal - OF

Round 12

ONE NUT receives:

Elvis Andrus Tex - SS

Round 16

This was one of the more underrated moves of the Open Trading period. Andrus is likely to end the season around 100/20/90/25/.340, which is very much keeper-worthy. An odd throw-in by Donkey early in the trading period, Dan continued to do an excellent job recycling assets and turned the throw in into another four rounds. Jason’s decision to go for it got a huge boost for very little cost heading into the playoffs.

            

DONKEY receives:

Aaron Hicks NYY - OF

Round 17

Round 17

KOG receives:

Round 15

Round 16

It’s really too bad Hicks couldn’t stay healthy because he was a big prospect at one point and has finally produced at a level consistent with his pedigree. Had he stayed healthy, his performance was conservatively on track for a 110/25/100/15/.350 season. Instead he got hurt, came back, and got hurt again and now he’s just a footnote that cost a few rounds before getting dropped.

            

KOG receives:

Mike Leake StL - P

Round 15

Round 17

LOC receives:

Trevor Bauer Cle - P

Round 18

Round 18

After starting off with a bang, injuries and some underperfomance has caused Chad’s roster to turn over into one of the younger fantasy playoff teams you’ll ever see.  Albies, Devers, Correa, Bellinger, Zimmer, Weaver, Faria are all kids playing key roles in getting Chad to the playoffs and will be relied on heavily if LOC is going to make it anywhere in their inaugural season. With that in mind, I love getting Bauer for three rounds. As currently constructed, this team is extremely volatile because of its youth, so Bauer fits right in with the Gausmans and  Salazars.  If they get hot and stay hot, this team could surprise.

            

S. NAPALM receives:

Round 12

STROMAN receives:

Adam Jones Bal - OF

John Lackey ChC - P

Round 16

I liked this move a lot at the time. Two steady veterans capable of stringing together a good final couple month and helping Stroman make a push for a final playoff spot. It didn’t work out, but it was relatively short money and Jones is a serviceable, albeit unspectacular, sixth keeper if need be. Meanwhile, Gibby continues to do a great job churning through his roster to unlock as much pick value as possible.

            

ANGRY PIRATES receives:

Eugenio Suárez Cin - 3B

Justin Verlander Det - P

Round 17

Round 18

MOOSE receives:

Nicholas Castellanos Det - 3B

Carlos Gómez Tex - OF

Round 8

Round 15

            

STROMAN receives:

Avisaíl García CWS - OF

Round 10

ANGRY PIRATES receives:

Eric Thames Mil - 1B,OF

Round 16 (traded from Anal Hershiser)

There have been few players as perplexing as Eric Thames ever in the history of fantasy baseball. Think about it, he plays in the bigs, is a starter for a bit but more of a fourth OF before heading overseas, crushing junkballs for a few seasons, coming back to the bigs, struggling in spring training, then crushing everyone for the first month of the season, getting traded from fantasy teams for the likes of Machado and Giancarlo, then slowing down before sucking so much he gets essentially platooned, and is now on pace for pretty good 87/33/63/4/.345 but has been almost unplayable over the past month.  I don’t know what to make of him for the rest of this season or beyond, but I know I would’ve wanted something stronger and more consistent for my protected picks. He very well could go on a heater and win Kyle a championship, but the I think he could’ve come over for less.

            

KOG receives:

Luis Perdomo SD - P

Round 17

ONE NUT receives:

Seung Hwan Oh StL - P

Round 19 (traded from One Nut Wonders)

Jason had no idea how valuable this trade might be at the time as Oh just seemed like a good setup guy, who was probably worth two rounds. Well, then Rosenthal went down for good and Oh took over as closer of a pretty competitive Cardinals team. He’s pitched relatively well since taking over, so this could end up being a big boon for a small cost.

            

BROKEBACK receives:

Mike Fiers Hou - P

Round 14

ANGRY PIRATES receives:

Trevor Williams Pit - P

Round 15

Fiers had a really nice stretch earlier this season, but he flopped big time over the past month or so. There’s no reason to take shots at Kyle for this since it was a clear upgrade, I just think I’d want a more reliable body heading into the playoffs. Williams has been pretty good, but the underlying shows an xFIP more than two runs over his ERA since the start of August. He could meltdown at any minute.

            

S. NAPALM receives:

Marcus Semien Oak - SS

Collin McHugh Hou - P

Round 16

ANAL receives:

Zack Cozart Cin - SS

Salvador Perez KC - C DL

Round 17

I like Semien a lot, but it’s hard to deny Cozart’s production (.391 OBP!) and while Perez gets an Adam Jones-like value deduction in an OBP league (.301 career OBP!), but it’s also hard to deny his durability (130+ games five straight seasons) and better counting numbers stats than most catchers. Should reach a career high in HR this year. For one round, these are nice upgrades at key positions where top-tier production is hard to come by. Great move.

            

BROKEBACK receives:

Brent Suter Mil - P DL

Jason Kipnis Cle - 2B DTD

Ender Inciarte Atl - OF

Round 12

ANAL receives:

Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,3B

Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS

Josh Reddick Hou - OF

Round 16

Sort of under the radar swap since it’s picking off the bare bones of Brokeback, but Inciarte was the best player moved in this deal. Kipnis unfortunately broke down and Suter got injured, so it made sense to swap those guys out for healthy bodies. But Baez is the only one who is still on the team and has performed well, but Reddick and Yuli were throw-ins to Moose in the Khris Davis deal.  Not a great use of draft picks by Justin, but it could pay off if Baez continues to get playing time and gets on a hot streak.  But I still don’t see him outplaying Inciarte, who is on pace for 100/12/60/24/.347, which is almost keeper-level production. As of now it doesn’t look like a great trade for Justin.

            

MONTEZUMAS receives:

Patrick Corbin Ari - P

Round 17

ANGRY PIRATES receives:

Round 15

Kyle was facing a bit of a roster crunch and send this offer over to get some sort of compensation instead of dropping someone. I was in a pretty poor pick situation but had my eye on Corbin for a while because his underlying numbers looked so much better than the surface numbers for the season. Kyle probably should’ve found someone else to ditch because Corbin is 4/4 in QS since then with a 0.30 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 29 Ks in 30 IP for the Revenge. That’s good enough for the second best pitcher in the last 30 days, just behind Kluber.

            

BROKEBACK receives:

Trevor Williams Pit - P

Trea Turner Was - 2B,SS,OF DL

Jim Johnson Atl - P

Yuli Gurriel Hou - 1B,3B

Round 15

Round 16

ANGRY receives:

J.D. Martinez Ari - OF

Brad Hand SD - P

Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD - P

Round 12

Round 13

This is a deal that should’ve been made months ago, when Turner was first hurt. At this point, it makes a little less sense for Kyle because Turner was actively working his way back and represents a much better long-term keeper than JDM. That said, I don’t have a problem with it because JD will be very good in Arizona. Hand and Ryu are serviceable part and the pick difference wasn’t that big. Turner was a great addition by Watson, who suddenly has a top group of keepers for next season with Turner, Pollock, Rizzo, Kershaw, Miggy, and perhaps Hoskins. Meanwhile, Watson’s early selling left him short of extra early picks, but he is currently done drafting in the 14^th.  With a great group of keepers and a great draftboard, Matt’s is currently in the best position of any team heading into 2018.