Weeks 19 & 20 Real Rankings

NOTES

- Weeks 19 and 20 were momentous in a number of ways as the top of the standings and bottom start to sort themselves out. First off, a down week for Montezuma’s coincided with a down week from Angry Pirates in Week 19, resulting in a relative wash at the top. One Nut failed to take advantage though, only mustering a two-game boost in the standings. Jason bounced back in a big way in Week 20 and finds himself in the running for the regular season championship, albeit a longshot. His gains were Kyle’s losses as the two faced off and Jason dominated, fueled by a 9 HR week from EE and a no hitter from Jake Arrieta. This time, the Revenge seized the opportunity and met Kyle’s 2-8-0 loss with a 7-3-0 win over MET, allowing me to jump into first by one game, with Jason sitting seven out. The three of us each play teams ranked 10^th or below in the standings, so anything could happen. Should be an interesting last week with $301.25 up for grabs for a regular season championship (second place gets $100). The Revenge has the tiebreaker. It would be my second straight regular season championship and would further secure my place as the Buffalo Bills of High & Tight.

- Ring, MET, and Moose (0.5 games out) are fighting for two spots, with Keepin (5.5 games out) still holding an outside change. Prestige technically still has a shot at 7.5 games out, but given the team’s decline and a tough matchup, it seems highly unlikely. Yes, Urban still has a shot technically as well at 9.5 games out, but still not sure that is statistically possible.

- Once a fringe playoff team, Anal has secured a spot in the final 8 after going 14-5-1 the last two weeks, employing the first ever majority-RP strategy. Perhaps he’s on to something? 

- Incredibly, despite 8 playoff spots, the only matchup among current playoff teams this week is Donkey vs. MET. Russ is looking to jump into the postseason fray for a final championship run after an up and down season.

- Again, let me know if you think you have a person that could take over the open spot. I believe we have three candidates at the moment. Please let me know if you think you will not be in the league next year so we can plan accordingly. 

- While the standings are close, the Real Rankings show a blowout at the top as a late surge has the Revenge at 5.66 and One Nut in second at 6.02, supplanting the Pirates, who’ve had a rough go lately and fell below second for the first time all season. In fact, over the last four games, Kyle’s squad is only 9^th in RR at 7.4. Meanwhile, Jason and me have been on the upward swing. The real interesting movement has been Pierce, whose 6.4 over the last four weeks should have yielded better results than 18-19-3, but he’s had a tough run of competition and still has an outside shot at a pretty epic come back.

LAST 4

1              Montezuma's Revenge 4.3

2              One Nut Wonders           4.9

3              Ring of Fire                         6.0

4              Keepin it REAL...               6.4

5              Mike Ehrman-Trout        6.9

6              I Ate The Munchkins      7.1

7              Moose is Loose!               7.1

8              Anal Hershiser                   7.3

9              The Angry Pirates            7.4

10           Donkey Punchers            7.9

11           Sexual Napalm                  8.0

12           Cowhide Joyride              8.2

13           Urban Achievers              8.4

14           Prestige Worldwide        9.5

- Meanwhile, the RR show they are not impenetrable in terms of statistical anomolies as Cowhide contines to have a much better overall showing in the RR than the actual standings. It is all but a certainty that bad luck caused the Joyride to miss the playoffs this year.

- Just need to reiterate the importance of setting lineups. You don’t need to pick up double-starts or even attempt to better position your team for next year, but you do need to set your lineups every day. At the very least, make sure your starters are starting when they’re supposed to. With such a tight race, one team’s apathy can easily squash another team’s chances at the playoffs or money. I will impose fines this week without warning.

- Since some teams will not be reading this going forward, please take a few minutes to consider potential changes/improvements for next year. It’s always good to jot these down before the offseason so we remember what to address in the winter. I don’t have much on my end. I think the easing of the trade restrictions were an improvement and that the S+H  category was the best decision the league has made since we agreed to allow draft pick trades. I would like to continue to consider ways to provide more incentive for teams to stick it out to the end, perhaps by determining the draft order in a reverse standings of non-playoff teams – so 9^th place (the best non-playoff team) would get the first pick and the last place team would get the 6^th pick. Open to ideas. I think we have enough interest to expand again if people are interest, but that really starts to water down the pool. Expanding the NA slot maybe. Anyway, share your thoughts if you have them.

Trade Review Part III

One Nut receives:

Kendrys Morales KC - 1B

17^th rounder

Cowhide receives:

OF Josh Hamilton TEX – OF

16^th rounder

This is the kind of trade that makes other contending teams cringe. Morales hasn’t helped much since he was acquired, but Hamilton is on the DL and really wasn’t all that great as it was, so Jason would’ve dropped him for someone off the wire eventually. Giving up one round is essentially the equivalent of picking someone up off the wire, except that person happens to be fifth in the league in RBIs. Morales could be a real difference maker if he continues his quiet production and could effectively slowly kill another contender in the playoffs without them ever realizing it. For Dave, well, screw that guy.

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MET receives:

Wilson Ramos Was - C

Round 16

Angry Pirates receives:

Yan Gomes Cle - C

Round 20

Really don’t see how Yan is worth four rounds. He was a great find last year and is better than his 25/8/31/0/.268 line he has posted in an injury-riddle season, but so is Ramos, whose 31/9/49/0/.264 line makes it look like there really didn’t need to be much of an exchange of picks here. Ramos has almost 100 more abs and Gomes as been better lately, so I guess there’s that. But I just don’t see why Gomes is worth four pretty crucial rounds (all but three players drafted in the 20^th were dropped from their original team this year – Sano, Volquez, Segura). Two rounds? Sure, I guess. I still like JT Realmuto and Miguel Montero better than both Ramos and Gomes, and they’re just chilling out there on the wire free of charge. For someone with  a draft board with as many holes as Kyle does, this didn’t really help.

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Prestige receives:

Freddie Freeman Atl - 1B

One Nut receives:

Edwin Encarnación Tor - 1B

This deadline has brought about a wide range of trades and this is no different – a rare one-for-one swap of keepers with no picks involved! In this case, the deal makes sense for both teams and I really don’t have an issue with either side. What Freeman lacks in supporting cast and power he makes up for in youth and improving skills. He’ll get to 100/30/100/.380 in the near future, while EE makes Jason’s already stellar team even better as he joins the roster in the midst of one of his patent hot streaks. His numbers aren’t far away from Bautista’s despite the up and down season. So with EE, Morales, Ellsbury, and Maybin, Jason’s offense is as diverse and potent as his pitching staff and well-positioned to take on Angry and Montezuma’s in the fight to the finish line. The beauty of Jason is every year we talk about the picks he gives up and every year we talk about his playoff push.

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Ring receives:

Francisco Liriano Pit - P

Round 22

Round 23

One Nut receives:

Round 12

Round 17

Now, this move I like for Jason.  Sixteen rounds is a nice boost in draft picks that helps negate some of the losses from the MadBum deal. That said, I don’t know how he does this as often as he does. No one in the league is more willing to deal a high quality player if he believes he’s getting enough value – even when he’s contending. It’s risky though. Liriano has gone on stretches of dominance that could really boost a team going against some potent opponents. Jason’s strength has been his rotation and he added Bumgarner to the Arrieta/Archer/Cueto monster, but it forces him to potentially rely on Derek Holland and/or Drew Smyly coming off the DL.  Then there’s guys like Karns, Buehrle, and Hammel who don’t have stellar track records, while Jaime Garcia has pitched like an ace, but the injury history makes it a little more risky. I couldn’t do it, but Jason has proven to be much less risk-averse than anyone in the league.

Dagan may have paid a little more than market value here because he was dealing with a fellow contender, but at this point there were few top pitching options available and Liriano (154/3.35/1.13/16) immediately becomes his best pitcher.  He’s not your typical ace, but Richards, Odorizzi, Nova, and Iwakuma offer a potentially very good veteran group to go with young guns Heaney, Jungman, and ERod. I don’t know if he makes the difference, but he certainly elevates the potential for a good enough week to make it through a round of the playoffs. Overall though, Dagan really needed a bit more to balance his staff with his stellar offense. This may have been too little too late.

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Prestige receives:

Devon Travis Tor - 2B DL

A.J. Ramos Mia - P

Erasmo Ramírez TB - P

Matt Shoemaker LAA - P NA

Round 7

Round 15

Montezumas receives:

David Ortiz Bos - 1B

Trevor Rosenthal StL - P

Cole Hamels Tex - P

Gio González Was - P

Round 21

Round 22

As the week dragged on and it became abundantly clear my top-seeded 2014 team was going to lose to an 8 seed in the first round – ending the once promising dream of my first H&T championship, I started to question some of my moves heading into the playoffs. I thought I had been aggressively smart. Turns out, I was stupid. I had opportunities to deal with Dagan for the likes of Arrieta, Shields, Kemp, and Bailey, but I hemmed and hawed and nit-picked and tried to save a couple rounds here and there. I let it linger long enough for Jason to swoop in and blow me out of the water with 35 rounds for all four – a seemingly nutso offer that I chided and mocked. All while Jason rode off into the sunset with his third H&T championship and I sat home holding my junk and clinging to the all-time highest regular season winning-percentage.

The lessons of that open trading period were not lost on me as we entered the 2015 open trading period. Though it pained me to see the glaring holes appear in my draft board and still liked a lot of the guys I traded away, I didn’t want to regret not making a bold move. Hamels is still a stud even if his era is a little inflated compared to past years. He’s consistently at 200 ip and 200 k with a great whip. His 162 game average for his career is 223 ip with 213 k and a 3.31/1.15, with surprisingly little fluctuation and only minor injury history. Texas in the summer is a little different than the NL east, but still a worthwhile add who is vast improvement to my staff. Rosenthal is a highend RP thanks to his team’s contending status, while Papi has turned around his season and is the 4^th overall rated player in Yahoo over the past 30 days with a crazy 21/10/30/.440 line in 98 abs. He sends a struggling Joc to my bench most days. Gio is not the Gio of old, but he’s still a pretty good Gio and bring high upside potential to each start. That 1.44 whip is no good and potential for BB-filled blowups, along with Salazar and TRoss, make for potential disaster. But the WHIP is well above recent year totals of 1.13, 1.25, and 1.20 since 2012, so perhaps he’s due for a correction. Kudos to Lars for making a couple moves before the deadline to help out for next year

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Cowhide receives:

Odubel Herrera Phi - 2B,SS,OF

Henry Owens Bos - P

Round 10

Round 14

Angry Pirates receives:

Dexter Fowler ChC - OF

Michael Pineda NYY - P DL

Round 22

Round 24

As much as I like and respect Kyle (especially since I’m sitting behind him in the standings), I am wondering about some of the moves to improve his team. David Price I understand obviously, but there’s some pretty meaningful question marks with the rest of the guys he acquired – like whether ARod can continue to stay healthy and productive, whether Jimmy Nelson is really making the next leap to third tier starter, is Yan Gomes any better than Wilson Ramos? The main question with this trade is whether Fowler and Pineda are worth 22 rounds. I’d say the answer is pretty clearly no. QS is a big thing for a reliable starter and Pineda has only converted 10 of his 19 starts to QS, namely because he can’t last six innings, which is funny because he doesn’t walk many and has a very nice 1.22 whip. The problem is he gets into problems. Without watching his starts, his 3.97 era, low whip, and inability to get to 6 innings suggests he’s prone to bad innings. His xFIP is actually stellar at 2.79, which, at a full run (and then some) lower than his era, implicates a sever lack of luck. The BABIP of .338 confirms the lack of luck, as it is a nearly 60 points off his career BABIP of .280. And the 23.9 K% and 3.1 BB% is also excellent. He’s a good pitcher. He could potentially be great. But there’s something about him that seems to be holding him back… Ahh, there it is:  the one season he pitched more than 170 innings (including minors) was the season before he ripped apart his shoulder. He missed all of 2012, only pitched 40 innings in 2013, then strained another shoulder muscle in 2014. This year, he started off great before heading to the DL with a forearm strain in the end of July. If we like Fowler (79/13/35/17/.348) but know there was little competition for his services given the glut of offensive options available in trade, exactly what portion of that 22 rounds was Pineda? He’s making a rehab start this week and he may be pretty good upon his return, but he wasn’t that good before he was injured and he simply cannot be kept due to the ongoing health issues. Perhaps this is just indicative of the market for quality SPs, but I just don’t think he is worth the number of rounds – specifically, not one of the restricted picks. Kyle traded 55 rounds during the open trading period and only has two picks in the first 9 rounds of the draft next year. He’s in the driver seat for the regular season title. I just wonder if those rounds could’ve been utilized better.

Dave, meanwhile, made off like a bandit and effectively sold off his roster in impressive fashion – even better than Gibby actually. Dave has no picks after Round 16 and has double picks in every one of the first nine rounds except the third and sixth, including two firsts and two seconds. Masterful work. With a good group of keepers including Altuve, Posey, Wacha, and Xander, Dave just needs a couple good keepers with some power and he will be set to compete in 2016.

Trade Reviews Part II

Keepin receives:

Brett Anderson LAD - P

Round 17

One Nut receives:

Aroldis Chapman Cin - P

Round 22

Jason is gonna think I’m picking on him, but I just think this is really too many picks to give up for any RP, even Chapman. First, let’s find Aroldis on the S+H leader board. There he is: 29^th along with Pedro Strop, Jason Grilli, AJ Ramos, David Robertson, and Brad Ziegler for the season. How about over the last 30 days? Ahh, yup, still just 24^th – tied at 6 with 7 other guys.  And, look at that, Aroldis’ 19 Ks and 6 saves in the last 30 is almost exactly the same production as Will Smith (free agent!). That is not jiggy. And wait a sec, don’t the Reds suck, particularly since trading their two best starters? Yup, 5-11 in August. OK, so not much value in the S+H department, but Chapman is good with Ks. Let me check to see if Jason needs Ks -- nope there he is in first in total Ks for the season. But he is just 12^th in the league in S+H; sure could use some of those…

The days of relievers being valuable are past us. They will never be kept again and I suspect next year, they won’t be drafted higher than the 10^th.  Giving up 5 rounds – 5 crucial rounds given the plummeting value once the draft gets into the 20^th round – is ridiculous for someone who isn’t going to contribute much to the one category you really need him to. Sure he may pile up 8 Ks during a week, but if that’s not a weak spot, I’d prefer someone on a team that will win some games. And the bottom line is the Reds are unlikely to get him in for “some work” given the number of innings he’s logged in recent years. They’re going to save those bullets and Jason should’ve saved those picks.

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Keepin receives:

Drew Pomeranz Oak - P

Will Harris Hou - P

Adam Wainwright StL - P DL

Round 12

Napalm receives:

Jake McGee TB - P

Joakim Soria Pit - P

Jonathon Niese NYM - P

Round 15

As odd a trade as they come, really. First, you take the fact that these are two teams sitting in 11^th and 12^th who have been in sell mode for a while now. Then you get the relatively low impact of the rounds dealt here, with the 12^th and 15^th yielding approximately the same value in most years’ drafts. Then you consider there are no sure fire keepers here and you got yourself a headscratcher. Nothing against Waino, but I’ve got some things against Waino – namely the waning K/9 numbers, which were never that impressive. He topped out at 219 and has three seasons of 200+, which isn’t much for a top tier guy. The sub-3.00/1.10 seasons are great, but his declining K rates leave him out of the top 20 SPs going forward, which leaves him out of keeper status. And that is just based on his stats. You would drop him even further on the list when you consider his age (34) and Achilles injury that kept him out all season. He’s a poor keeper, but a good name so it’s hard to really blame Pierce for making a move like this given the little he gave up. The change to S+H has effectively valued relief pitchers to a level that is consistent with their actual value to MLB teams. Though there was a day when top closers could get 8 rounds in a hot market, middle relievers were worth nothing. This trade shows how that has changed. A few rounds for a few good RPs sounds about right to me. As far as strategy goes, Gibby remains in sell mode and is still sitting on a bounty of picks – the likes of which we’ve rarely seen – and he picks up some improvement in rates and S+H, which could sneak him into the playoffs, where anything could happen. SO, in summary. Pierce gets very little because Waino isn’t a keeper and three rounds isn’t much. Gibby gets very little because he’s unlikely to make the playoffs. Sounds like a fair trade!

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Urban receives:

Grégory Polanco Pit - OF

Doug Fister Was - P

Round 19

Donkey receives:

José Reyes Col - SS

Chris Tillman Bal - P

Round 22

I’m not high on Tillman or Reyes in general, but I still really don’t like this one for Dan. I’m not sure Jose Reyes is going to be playing in COL next year, but if he is, his value easily exceeds that of Polanco as a keeper for 2016. Reyes is something less than what he once was, but he also plays a position that is much more difficult to fill with multi-category talent than OF, where Polanco’s 162-game average thus far in his career (88/11/56/27/.322) is very Austin Jacksonish. And those numbers should be watered down further if you consider how he would actually produce in 162 games given his performance versus LHPs. That’s not to say he won’t eventually be a keeper. I actually think he will, and may even get to 100/20/50/40/.350 eventually. I just don’t know when that might be. I do know he won’t be valued by the fantasy community at large as a player going in the top six rounds of next year’s draft. Certainly, we’ve seen a great number of young players get kept for much less production (Gordon Beckham!) but we’re looking purely at value acquired vs. potential value. I think Polanco could’ve been acquired for a few rounds in the offseason, while the Reyes/Tillman combo should’ve brought him at least 10 rounds this year given how well Tillman has pitched lately. For Chris Shannon, who was quiet otherwise, this was a good opportunity to be loud as it really solidifies a couple of weak spots on his roster. Again, I like Polanco but – like most 23-year-olds – he’s got some things to work out.  That platoon split (.742 vs. .618 OPS) is a strong indicator that his learning curve is going to be more in line with a typical young player rather than the uber-prospects that dominate immediately.  All that means is Dan may have to wait three years for him to fully emerge, making the take home now a little less exciting.

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One Nut receives:

Madison Bumgarner SF - P

Round 23

Round 24

Anal receives:

Craig Kimbrel SD - P

Round 7

Round 11

Wow, just wow. Jason again delivers with the trade of the year (as far as headlines are concerned), except this time he’s only getting one player for a staggering 29 rounds. To put in perspective, David Price is MadBum’s equal yet he and ARod and Nelson only yielded 28 rounds, so Price’s portion of that was like 14 rounds. I’m not sure how this one developed, but there is no way to look at this without saying Jason overspent by quite a bit. He also failed to secure some of the other nice pieces on Andrew’s roster, which surely could’ve been included given the price. It was such a wild overpay, there was no way of even considering it when making subsequent deals for starters. In reality, his numbers (174/2.98/1.03/16) are only a little better than Salazar (156/3.16/1.06/14), who was acquired with Melky for 9 rounds. Sure, you’d rather have MadBum than Salazar, but not with that price discrepency. The one thing Jason has acquired that few can provide is a really good track record and youth – Bummy is a seasoned ace at just 25.  However, he does have problems away from home (4.16 era this year) and this will actually only be his second year exceeding the 200K mark. Those numbers place him a group of about 12-15 or so pitchers behind the Kershaw/Scherzer/Fernandez tier. It’s a lot for any player and only three rounds away from the maximum draft pick compensation possible. I’m sure Jason thinks this is the piece that will bring him his unprecedented 4^th H&T championship – and Lord knows he has earned the benefit of the doubt – but I’m pretty sure he could’ve had him for less.

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Urban receives:

Kevin Gausman Bal - P

Luis Severino NYY - P

Round 17

Anal receives:

Jonathan Papelbon Was - P

Tony Watson Pit - P

Round 20

Got to admit to scratching my head a bit when this one came through. Seemed like Andrew was selling, but now he’s spending three rounds on some decent RPs? Well, it turns out Andrew was kind of selling. Or selling with a purpose. His strategy is to accumulate enough relievers to dominate ERA, WHIP, and S+H, and hopefully have enough offense to get three out of five categories. Since he’s almost automatic on the steals, this would give him a really good shot at four categories from the outset. Not a bad strategy actually.  That said, the less IPs means a blowup has a greater impact on your rates, so its hard to just hand over the rates categories. Still, for three rounds, it’s a worthwhile strategy given the bounty he got for MadBum. Urban’s return may have been a little light, but not sure how much people would’ve been willing to give for RPs. Seems like there were a lot of good RPs left on the rosters of teams that were selling because they’re so widely available (which was the point of going to S+H). Gausman would’ve made a good back of the rotation piece for a buyer, but doesn’t do much here. So, like most of these trades, both team see some benefit but Andrew could really excel if his strategy works.

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Moose receives:

Chris Bassitt Oak - P

Joe Ross Was - P

Danny Duffy KC - P

Round 23

Cowhide receives:

Round 15

Well, for Brian’s only deadline move, it wasn’t terribly exciting, but could really be a difference maker. One of the keys to going on a late season run is having a productive back end of your rotation and all three are pitching well at the moment. A productive pitching staff teamed with resurgent CarGo and Chris Davis crushing everything in sight could do a lot of damage. But, of course, there’s the issue of the lack of track record for any of these three. Duffy has the most track record and it’s not really one of consistency. Bassitt has been one of the top SPs in the league over the last 30, while Ross looks legit in his first big league action and has a pretty decent pedigree. Volatility can be a real bitch though and these are all young guys who are due for some correction. But, at 8 rounds, he got them each for a few rounds, so the ultimate loss here is not every much. The real value here though is Dave picking up some useful rounds for what amounted to waiver wire fodder and a trade throw-in. Win win.