Trade Review: Anal and S. Napalm

Anal receives:

SP Matt Harvey NYM

OF Josh Willingham MIN

C JP Arencebia TOR

15^th rounder

S. Napalm receives:

SP Stephen Strasburg WAS

C Yadier Molina STL

OF Angel Pagan SF

23^rd rounder

This was very interesting, not only because it involves two elite young pitchers but the pieces below it. First off, as good as Harvey is, we’re still talking a small sample size (150 ip). He’s only 16 months younger than Strasburg but has pitched double the innings in his career. Stras’ ample pedigree and experience tells you he’s clearly the one to have long term. But health is a factor not to be overlooked. Stras’ 325 ips are spread out over four years, four outstanding years on a per game basis, but he does you little good on the bench. Meanwhile, Harvey has never been considered the phenom that Strasburg was, picked in the middle of the first round. He’s never had health problems (that I’m aware of) and has progressed as a prospect should. That said, regression could come quickly and he may ultimately end with numbers something below that of your typical keepers – sub-3.00 era, 1.10 whip, 200+k, 75 QS%.  Both have superb rates around 2.50/1.00 with 10+ K/9 for their careers. Its just a matter of what do you put more faith in? Strasburg’s pedigree or Harvey’s health. It will be interesting to see how this one goes.

The difference between Molina and Arencebia and Pagan and Willingham is very close. I’ve got more faith in the health of the player playing the less threatening position, though that is also what gives Molina his value. Willingham has struggled a bit, but that’s mostly in the batting average dept, which we don’t care about. He’s got a healthy 27/10/31/.359 line. Molina’s is something a bit less helpful to the bottom line at 28/4/32/.390, but he’s also the second highest ranked catcher in the league. Meanwhile, Pagan and Arencebia have basically the same value, which is something more than waiver material. Call this part of it a wash.

With Andrew receiving a pretty significant eight-round upgrade (two below the maximum allowed) and Strasburg’s injury woes, I like this more for his team at this point. That said, it’s not a bad chance for Gay Santa to acquire one of the more unique talents of our time when there are concerns and maximizing on a guy (Harvey) whose value could not get higher in a long-term keeper league. Nice trade boys.