Prestige
Worldwide
Keepers:
While Lars’ self-deprecating comments regarding his sixsome was noted in the
draft video, they really aren’t that bad. There’s nothing hiding in Edwin’s
underlying numbers to consider last year fluky, though he loses his hot corner
eligibility. But that point is moot when you have Longoria, who has to stay
healthy one of these years, right? Sabathia is a bigger name and bigger ass
than he is in terms of production, but he’s a steady Tier 2-type who is likely
to put up similar numbers. Tough break on Grandy. Hard to tell how he’ll bounce
back once he returns. The trade for Halladay was a little curious given the
recent concerns about his velocity, but there’s certainly upside to be had. I
don’t know about Trumbo. That second half was awful. I wasn’t going to touch
him, but he certainly has power and great position eligibility. Classic high
risk/high reward.
Picks:
With three picks in the first round, including number one overall, the commish
is sitting pretty, but he still has to use them correctly. Russ had three last
year – Crawford, Berkman, J. Montero. Yuck. Lars had two himself and they got
squandered in Daniel Hudson and Howie Kendrick. But he’ll have a lot of early
chances with nine picks in the first five rounds, so the pressure is on.
Outlook:
With a decent group of keepers, if issues in the health department go his way
and he nails at least half of his early picks, Lars should be a playoff team.
But there’s a lot of downside to the keepers and lots of opportunities to mess
up picks, so this team should be interesting.
Keepin’
it REAL
Keepers:
Keepin keeps keeping keepers he’s kept before. Ells, Pedroia, Wright, Panda are
all familiar faces from his previous championship. 2012 was a disaster for
Pierce, but these four, along with Desmond and Sale, provide a very solid base
with an extraordinary upside, albeit largely inconsistent track records. Ells
in a contract year sounds like gold to me, and you know the effort will always
be there for Pedy and Wright. Panda reported to camp chubby again, but nothing
new there. He’s had problems staying on the diamond. Desmond is a gamer, but
his newfound fantasy prowess comes with really no track record or pedigree in
terms of power. Meanwhile, every expert thinks Sale’s arm motion will eventually
send him to Dr. Andrews; the question is when. Each of these guys has ended a
year in the top 50 players overall at some point. If they can do it in one
year, Pierce just may have something.
Picks:
Pierce quietly dealt his last five picks so he’ll be ending his draft night
early. His 18 picks are spread pretty evenly across 12 rounds with multiple
picks in six rounds. Part of Pierce’s success in drafting has been not
overthinking it, with Dickey being a prime example.
Outlook: He may be one of the quieter owners,
but his team could make some noise if his keepers come in and he hits on his
late picks.
Ring of
Fire
Keepers: Kemp is the big question mark here.
He’s always been really good, but he’s only had that one historic 2011.
Otherwise, he’s just a really good player with 30/30 potential. Healthy again,
his age 28 year might harken back to the glory days. Votto should be his
typical productive self with a ridiculous OBP, while Bruce should be right
behind him slugging him with 40-homer potential. While not flashy, Zobrist is
an excellent keeper, very consistent and with some position flexibility. Hard
to find a reason to expect 18 steals again, but Goldy may make up for it with
even more power. He’s got it, all right. Latos was really pretty good last year
despite going from a massive field to a bandbox. Tough decision to keep him
over Cueto and Rizzo, but given positions and upside, its probably the right
choice.
Picks:
Dagan’s pigheadedness/confidence when it comes to his players always leaves him
in good shape for the draft. He somehow managed to sneak the third pick overall
and only has few gaps in the middle of his draft board.
Outlook:
A three-time champion, you could never count him out even if his keepers sucked
and all his picks were after Round 20. With a solid draft board and high
ceiling keepers, there’s no reason to think Dagan will deviate from his
impressive track record of playoff appearances.
Moose is
Loose
Keepers:
You could call the group solid, but I really just see a lack of upside. It’s
hard to imagine Tulo will be ripping up the basepaths this year given his
injury history, but there’s no reason to think he won’t be productive
elsewhere. Billy Butler showed some of the power scouts eventually expected his
doubles to grow into and he’s solid. I still love Beltran, but as he turns 36
next month, I’d like him a lot more if there was a DH spot for him to use on
occasion. I don’t like to unfairly predict injuries but there’s simply no way
to expect him to keep this production up at his age. Maybe he gets in another
great season, but I can’t predict a third healthy season in a row. I love Lee
this year; no questions there. But you have to wonder about Grienke and Medlen.
With Medlen, its obvious. There’s simply no way an afterthought in the 2012
draft who doesn’t get into the rotation until July becomes a keeper without a
truly amazing half season. What to expect over the course of a full season is
anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, I thought Grienke in a pitcher’s park sounded great,
but he’s an odd duck and already having some arm issues. Could be nothing and
he’s a top 10 pitcher … or not.
Picks:
Brian’s paralysis around last year’s trade deadline didn’t move the needle much
in terms of his draft position. He’ll be the first to curse Haren, who cost him
the fourth overall pick in the draft. But his board is mostly in tact with only
three rounds without picks.
Outlook:
I am more uncertain about Brian’s keepers than any other team. They could be
very good or tremendously bad. Meanwhile, his draft board is middle of the
pack. Much will depend on his picks.
Angry
Pirates
Keepers: Kyle went through an Extreme Home
Makeover in the offseason, with Starlin the only player that has been on the
roster since before the 2012 trade deadline. And I really like what he’s doing
with the place. As great as Giancarlo is and as much potential as Lawrie has,
McCutcheon is one of the few legit five-category guys around. Meanwhile, AGone
was a great addition last year and I have little doubt he will return to his old
self this season, except now with OF eligibility. Beltre was an absolute steal
for J. Montero and three rounds, even if he only has a couple more great
seasons left. And Yoenis is on a short list of players being taken after the
third round who has real potential to be a top five pick next year. The
underlying stats all play in his favor. He wasn’t nearly as impatient as
advertised with a decent 8% walk rate. He strikes out less than most sluggers
at 18.9% (Dunn: 34.2%), his ISO was in the Bruce/Granderson/Willingham range,
and his wOBA was in the top 20% of qualifying players – all in his first year
in the country, nevermind professional organized sports. In short, he’s the
perfect player for a team with a lot of solid guys up top because his upside is
so massive. I’m less enthused by Craig than most simply because last year was
his first playing over 100 games in a season (119), he’s no longer 2B eligible,
and lacks the pedigree of other first basemen, but I expect him to be a solid
contributor nonetheless.
Picks:
Kyle’s draft board is odd in that it looks like what is usually leftover by a
team that took a deep run in the playoffs the year prior – not a team that
finished 11th and was out of it much of the year. No first round
pick stinks, but its more disappointing that he didn’t capitalize enough on
being out of it and only has four picks in the first six rounds. The picks are
pretty well spread out, so it could be worse. But it should be better.
Outlook:
Kyle has a very good chance to make his first real noise in this league this
year. The picks are not an insurmountable hindrance by any stretch and his
keepers could ultimately be the league’s best group.
Anal
Hershiser
Keepers: I really didn’t think much of Andrew’s
potential keepers as 2012 came to a close, but his offseason dealing has turned
that around in a big way. The addition of Prince gives the team something it –
perhaps a function of the expansion league process – severely lacked: a big-time cornerstone slugger. There
are few players as reliable as Prince. Meanwhile, Andrew has the start of what
could be the best staff in the league with Verlander, Strasburg, and Bumgarner.
It’s a young group too. He certainly doesn’t need to think about pitching for
quite a while in the draft. I’m
less enthused with his final two keepers, LaRoche and Bourn. If they do what
they did last year, fine. They don’t have a lot of upside and the downside
could be a lot of mediocrity, but I also don’t blame him for not dealing away
his picks for what might amount to a minor upgrade in talent. All in all, a
good group.
Picks:
An interesting draft board with two high picks, fourth and sixth overall, a
couple gaps here and there, before ending his draft with a daunting seven
selections in a matter of 23 picks in rounds 12 and 13 (or 18 and 19). Two good
hitters in those first two picks would balance this team quickly.
Outlook: The Fielder addition gives him an
offensive anchor to build around. He’ll need to fill in that infield with
skilled players to match the pitching production he should have. Andrew came to
play this year.
Sexual
Napalm
Keepers: Gay Santa didn’t waste anytime this
offseason as he started retooling his roster the moment the Patriots season was
over. The recent addition of Freeman was very smart, especially for a team with
a focus on youth. He’s still very young and already has two productive seasons
under his belt. Meanwhile, Darvish, Gallardo, and Anderson present an
intriguing mix of skills, notable some high K potential. The Beltre deal in the
offseason was odd, particularly since it yielded a player he is not keeping
(Montero), and I’d like his team ever better with him rather than Phillips, who
is really perpetually overrated across the board. POP QUIZ: Would you rather have Player A’s
82/17/56/20/.315 line, Player B’s 62/20/86/13/.316 line, or Player C’s
86/18/77/15/.321 line? Player A is Danny Espinosa, Player B is Kyle Seager,
Player C is Phillips. All are eligible at 2B, but the former two are available
much later. As Gay Santa will learn, I rarely ever condone wasting roster spots
on prospects – particularly keeper spots for a player with an undefined role
like Profar. Sure, Trout proved that theory wrong last year, but he’s an
outlier. There’s countless
examples of guys who were supposed to be The Next Big Thing who ultimately
consume precious roster spots, waste potential production from veterans, and
ultimately end up on the waiver wire.
But that’s one, moderately successful, know-it-all-douchebag fantasy
player’s opinion/strategy/observation. I blame Gordon Beckham.
Picks:
St. Nick built up his assets a bit last year before the deadline and has since
dealt much of that away to form his group of six. There’s a pretty massive gap
in his draft, where he has two picks in the middle six rounds. That said, he’s
still got his first five picks, so things aren’t all bad.
Outlook:
You could question his trades and a few of his keepers, but there’s no denying
he’s already proven to be a very active owner. Active ownership and unique (and
informed… Troy, erhrm…) points of view are what makes this league great and I’m
happy to have Gay Santa on board. At this point though, there’s no reason to
enter the season with a two-year plan. Anything can happen with the right
draft.
Clayton
& the King
Keepers: With Trout and Cano up top, he could
have the bottom half of the Marlins lineup as his keepers and still be in
contention. But that’s not the case. He’s got two legit top 20 guys in CarGo
and Bautista to go along with two of the best and most consistent young
pitchers in the game with Felix and Kershaw. Russ has done a tremendous job
drafting over the years and resisting the temptation to trade some of those
great talents, which is the key to putting forth an excellent group of keepers
every year. Of course, he also doesn’t have a championship to show for it.
Perhaps this is the year. While there are other teams with great keepers
(Casten is close), Russ hands down has the top group.
Picks:
Another sign of a great owner is making a deep playoff run and still having
picks to show for it. Remarkably, Russ had an excellent 2012 and still – unlike
many of his fellow playoff teams – has a full draft board. He’s missing a 4th
and a 5th, but he makes up for it with two 6ths and 7ths and the
rest of the board is pretty full.
Outlook:
If he had just managed to pull out a championship last year, I’d call 2012 one
of the more extraordinary jobs by an owner in league history given the state of
his team going into 2013. I’m not ranking teams at this point, but Russ would
easily be #1 at this point. Pressures on.
Donkey
Punchers
Keepers: For some reason, Hamilton is making
“experts” very hesitant going into this year. I think he’s going to be his good
volatile self, if not better, in that lineup. He and Holliday should make up an
excellent outfield for Chris. Kipnis is a bit of a shot in the dark, but a good
one. He fell off badly late last year, but it was his first season; 25/40 is
reachable, though 15/20 is also a possibility. Worth a shot nonetheless. In
typical Chris fashion, the rotation should be exemplary with Cain, Wainright
(last year’s underlying numbers are much better than his actual numbers in his
return from TJ surgery), and Gio (providing he isn’t suspended). A lot of good
gamer types here that make up a solid squad.
Picks:
In a Casten circa 2011-type manner, Chris did an incredible job acquiring
assets and trading them off for picks last summer and will now sit out the back
half the draft. All 18 picks will
be made in the first nine rounds. For comparison, Dave has five picks before
Chris is done drafting. This is a massive advantage.
Outlook:
The work Chris put in last year could really payoff in his first championship.
Teams who went a similar route in 2011, like Russ, Dave, and Brandon, all made
the playoffs. At this point, failure to reach the playoffs would be a
disappointment of epic proportions.
Montezuma’s
Revenge
Keepers:
There’s not a lot sexy about my keepers. JUpton is the biggest name and my
biggest man crush due to his propensity to crush the ball into oblivion and his
youth. I expected huge things from him last year and was disappointed. In fact,
outside of Hamels, basically all my keepers disappointed last year. Santana
stunk for most of the season, Kinsler was mediocre, Lawrie was injured or ineffective
and let’s not get started on Hosmer. Ironically, five of my six keepers from
last season are back, which is a bit unlike me. But the base case for all those
guys still holds true and Aramis gives me a steady productive bat, who has
helped me in each of the past two season after I acquired him following his
typical, predictable slow start. This year, I’ll have to condone this start
somehow. Either way, this could go very right and I’ll have an excellent group,
or it could go very bad again. A lot rides on the shoulders of young Eric
Hosmer, the boner for whom shrunk to semistatus last year only to return
amongst the hype of his nice spring and reworked approach. We shall see.
Picks:
Not great, but were a lot worse heading into the offseason. The biggest problem
is the lack of picks in rounds 2 and 3. Otherwise, the picks are spread pretty
well throughout. Dealing Lee, Anderson, and Dickey in the offseason helped
tremendously.
Outlook:
I’m not starting on particularly strong footing, certainly in the bottom third
of the league. And my history of fudging first picks (CPena in 2010, PAlvarez
in 2011, Pineda in 2012) isn’t exactly instilling confidence. But I generally
end up having a good regular season before losing in the playoffs to Dagan, who
I am mere percentage points away from for the top spot in the overall
standings. There’s worse things I suppose.
GRUMPY
MUNCHKINS
Keepers: Like Russ, Casten’s keepers are
exemplary. Cabrera is simply on a tier by himself when it comes to infielders,
while Pujols continues to produce year after year. I will be interested is
seeing how Giancarlo does. I’m sure it was difficult to get rid of Cutch’s five
category contributions and get back someone who contributes to only four and
whose his ability to contribute to two of those four categories may be severely
hindered by the lack of talent around him. Still, the power and youth is
tremendous. I think he’s a lock for 50 if he stays healthy, but what if he only
gets 75 rbis? Taking his youth movement further, Lawrie and Heyward are both
very young, so there may be more lumps to take, but also supremely talented.
Lawrie could do a lot damage in the Jays new lineup, which will also feature
Reyes, whose only question mark is health. He’s going to play 81 games on that
turf in Toronto, so it’s a minor concern. In total, there’s some very talented
youth mixed with three guys who are arguably the top ranked player at their
position, so good things could be in store.
Picks:
Unlike Russ and unlike his team last year, Casten is in a bit of a hole when it
comes to picks, having given up basically everything in last year’s failed
attempt at a championship run. He’s got no picks in the first two rounds, then
he has six selection between picks 33 and 78, then a long long wait until pick
185. His situation is better than it was when last season ended, but with
two-thirds of his picks in the last five rounds, he’s going to have to nail
that middle chunk. Since he is not keeping a pitcher, he’s going to have to
take some chances in the backend of that rotation, nevermind a bullpen, which
he might just skip all together.
Outlook: Casten is a very good evaluator of
talent and the late rounds and waiver wire can be full of hidden gold. Provided
he’s done his homework, I’m sure he can dig up some gems to fill in around his
excellent keepers. If so, and his youngsters produce, Brandon will be a top
team again. But he’s got his work cut out for him.
Cowhide
Joyride
Keepers: Dave gave up a lot to try to make a run
last year, which was surely partially fuelled by the fact that he gave up
midway through 2011 to make a run in 2012. The sailing wasn’t as smooth for him
as the other teams that stockpiled picks prior to last year’s draft as he dealt
away much of his 2013 draft board to bolster last year’s roster. It left him
with an empty draft board and caused him to take a hard look at his keepers. I
agree with the move to trade Fielder. He was the biggest chip and got him the
highest pick of any traded in the offseason (23rd overall). However,
Dave’s keepers look much less mighty than they did. The move of Chapman to the
bullpen means Dave will once again have a tremendous bullpen in Chapman and
Kimbrel, but he’s keeping two closers, which hasn’t been done in the history of
High & Tight. Certainly part of that is Dusty Baker’s fault and is
disappointing because it would’ve been great to see the numbers Chapman could
put up with 200 innings. David Price is still getting better, so Dave’s got an
ace to lead his staff, but he’ll need to cobble together an offense with some
potential. As great as Posey is, he’s a catcher and the counting numbers are
limited by total ABs, while the injury risk is high. Zimmerman is great as long
as he’s healthy, but that is a big presumption to make. At least he’s starting
the season healthy. Meanwhile, I think Andrus days as an automatic keeper
should’ve been over by now; 21 sbs, 85 runs, and a .349 obp just aren’t enough
production to make him a cornerstone. With only three offensive keepers and a
bad pick situation, he will have to be one for Dave. Now, contract years
occasionally make guys go off, but he’s never going to contribute to HR and
RBI, so he’s going to have to make up for it elsewhere in a water-down Rangers
lineup.
Picks:
Yuck. Its better than it was when the offseason started and better than Casten
in the sense that they’re more spread out in the later rounds, but still –
three picks in the first seven rounds is not good. And he had to give up some
great keepers in Fielder, Cespedes, and MadBum to get those early picks. From
the eighth round on, he’s in good shape, but at that point many teams are
filling up the middle of their rotation and choosing their third or fourth
outfielder.
Outlook: Dave is going to have to work some
magic to compete this year. It’s the case against going for it all and dealing
your picks for a run at a championship. Hard to blame him, but this is what
you’re left with: weakened keepers and a draft board that is still lousy. If he
can draft like he did last year (Bumgarner, Darvish, Cespedes, Kimbrel, Rios,
A. Jackson, Jansen, Motte, Headley), he won’t have a problem getting back to
the playoffs.
Urban
Achievers
Keepers:
Unlike fellow expansion team Andrew, Dan has focused on a youth movement in his
third year with Harper, Moore, Jennings, Wieters, and Machado. BJ Upton is the
only one with a track record and even that is somewhat inconsistent. I really
like Harper and Moore and expect them each to climb into the upper echelon of
their positions this year. Jennings and Wieters, however, I’m beginning to
wonder whether they are what they are. Both will turn 27 this year and haven’t
put together seasons that are keeper-worthy, contributing only mildly to a few
categories each. That said, they both have the pedigree for this to be their
big breakout season. If so, Dan might just be on to something, perhaps for
years to come. Lastly, Machado is supremely talented and by next year he could
have 3B/SS eligibility and pop 30 homers, but I suspect this season will have
its moments but ultimately his numbers won’t be tremendous, particularly that
OBP (he walked a measly 4.5% last year). Dan’s group may have the greatest
potential upside/downside difference in the league.
Picks:
The draftboard is pretty well intact, with a 3rd and 10th
the only empty rounds of note. The balls didn’t quite fall his way, so he’s
drafting late in the first but there’s some very good options this year and two
of the top 16 picks is a nice position to be in.
Outlooks: Due to the youth of the keepers, there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. I will be interested to see if Dan continues the youth focus in the draft. While more potential may sound good, stable veterans are what prevent volatility. Of course, getting hot at the right time can pay off big time too.
One Nut
Wonders
Keepers:
They seemed a lot better a couple weeks ago. However, it sounds like MLB may
not back down from Braun if they have something concrete. I’m sure he will
fight it tooth and nail again, but the possibility for a 50 game suspension still
exists. Meanwhile, two of his top hitters – Hanley and Headley – got hurt in
spring training and will miss the first couple months of the season. If they
come back healthy, Jason should be able to tread water and recover to make
another playoff run. I still like Dickey a lot. There wasn’t much luck hiding
behind those numbers last year, just much better control that made his success
in previous years, which was quite notable, turn to ace material. I worry about
Weaver though. The difference between his ERA and xFIP was significant (2.81
vs. 4.69) and his strikeout rate dropped quite a bit as well. He also continues
to have a very low GB% (36.0%), which can lead to volatility. At least he has a
great defensive outfield. So, the names in this sixsome are good but there’s a
lot of question marks lingering that could ultimately thwart Jason’s attempt at
a repeat.
Picks:
Jason should be commended for achieving what he did last year and having a
draft board that is better than many teams who were out of contention most of
2012. The only gap is in the seventh round, he’s got one pick in the first six,
then he finishes up in the 14th with four rounds to spare, and three
picks in the 11th – the round that magically produced Encarnacion, Sale,
and Willingham last year. Considering last year’s success, an impressive draft
board, certainly.
Outlook:
It would be much better if he didn’t lose the left side of his infield, but
great teams persevere through adversity and I fully expect Jason to be right in
the mix this season.
