Round
7
Best:
3B Eugenio Suarez CIN, Ring – Simply the
best player available. Posted
79/34/104/1/.366 at age 26 and now has a better lineup around him.
Runner-up: 3B Matt Chapman OAK, Cowhide – He’s a little
overrated given his age (26), but solid advances could turn him into an easy
keeper.
Worst: OF Byron Buxton MIN, Tomahawk – And I’m
actually more bullish on him than past years given where he was being drafted,
which is mid-14th round according to Yahoo ADP. This was not the
mid-14th round.
Runner-up: 3B Justin Turner LAD, Brokeback – Yes, the
.400 OBP is nice, but we’re still talking about a 34yo who has exceeded 457 ABs
once in his career - and after that year
has averaged 67/18/61/5 in the other categories.
X
Factor: SP Luis Castillo CIN, S. Napalm
– Surprised #2 starter taken after being dropped outright last year (after
being a second round pick), but he finished strong and could leap into keeper
category.
Round
8
Best: SP Chris Archer PIT, Montezumas – Averaged
250 Ks from 2015-17 and has moved from the AL East to full time in the NL
Central, a pitcher’s park, and a notoriously favorable coaching staff.
Runner-up: 1B Edwin Encarnacion SEA, Donkey – Missed
some time last year to injury, but otherwise was his normal productive self –
especially when you consider his .265 BABIP. Expect more keeper-level
production, even at 36.
Worst: RP Josh Hader MIL, Knuckle – In a S+H league,
RPs are just not that valuable, no matter how good they are. Tough lesson to
learn for the rook.
Runner-up: SP Mile Mikolas STL, Brokeback – Nit-picking
in a good round, but just doesn’t have the K upside I need from an SP this
high.
X
Factor: SP Shane Bieber CLE, Knebel –
Amazing how hyped he got considering a pedestrian 4.55/1.33, but there’s a lot
of underlying goodness here – 3.30 xFIP, .356 BABIP, 19.6% K-BB%, 11.4 SwStr%.
Still wasn’t a big prospect, and feasted off some lackluster AL Central lineups
at the end of the season, so could go south too.
Round
9
Best: 2B Brian Dozier WAS, Brokeback – My love for
Dozier is based on nothing but statistics. Lingering injuries caused numbers to
dip last year, but this guy was easy 100/30/90/15/.340 the three seasons prior
and joins a deep WAS lineup.
Runner-up: 2B Yoan Moncada CHW, One Nut – The hype train
finally slowed down long enough to take an honest look. There’s enough
improvement, youth, and bad luck to EXPECT 75/20/75/20/.330, but it could be
even better.
Worst: SP Chris Paddack SD, Knebel – Paddack must’ve
taken Moncada’s place on the hype train because this is nuts. He pitched 89
innings last year and wasn’t overly impressive in AA. Missed 2017 for TJS.
Before that, MLB.com had him as the 27th best prospect … in the
Padres system. There’s enough stuff to like for sure, but this eliminates the
ability of this to be a sleeper pick because the inning cap essentially removes
the possibility of him even approaching the value of pitchers taken after him
like Hamels, Porcello, Lester, Arrieta, and Happ.
Runner-up: 2B Garrett Hampson COL, Knebel – Again, Jeff,
they aren’t considered sleepers if you take them above established stars.
X
Factor: SP Jose Quintana CHC, Thor – I
like him plenty, but the truth is this could be a complete flop he continues to
trend downward. But there’s enough reason to be optimistic and see the
potential for a top 30 SP again.
Round
10
Best: 2B Dee Gordon SEA, One Nut – There are only
so many speed assets that can contribute to other categories. Gordon has long
been a keeper capable of hitting 50+ SBs with R and decent OBP. Injury behind
him now, this is a steal (pun intended).
Runner-up: 2B Jonathan Villar BAL, Montezumas – See
Gordon, Dee, add greater volatility and a shitty lineup.
Worst:
SP Tyler Glasnow TB, Thor – I don’t like anything I saw in the spring,
especially given past control issues and TB’s willingness to mess with innings.
If he hits 25% QS% I’ll be shocked.
Runner-up: OF Kyle Shwarber CHC, Knebel – You could’ve
had the amount of at bats and the same 60/30/60/5/.340 line in the 24th
round with Joc Pederson.
X Factor: 1B Matt Olson OAK, Anal – This could pay off
huge once Olson returns in late-May/early-June, but the question is whether
that hamate injury saps his most desirable asset. Pitchers park doesn’t help.
Round
11
Best: 1B Justin Smoak TOR, Donkey – 2018 wasn’t
quite like 2017, but this is four-category goodness after many less deserving
selections.
Runner-up: OF Aaron Hick NYY, Donkey – Dropped from a
keeper to a 5th rounder? Injury prone and currently injured but will
be atop a powerful lineup when healthy.
Worst: OF Ender Inciarte ATL, Angry – Nitpicking in
a good round, but for a guy who gets so many ABs, his stats are pretty meh.
162-game average is 90/8/51/25/.337 and for a base stealer, he’s not very good
at it (33 CS%)
Runner-up: SP Joey Lucchesi SD, Donkey – Nice park, but
he’s a 4.00/1.30 27yo who doesn’t go deep into games and won’t be allowed to go
past 160 ip.
X
Factor: OF Jesse Winker CIN, Brokeback – If only we knew how the playing time
would break down. He’s a near lock to be .370+ OBP and has shown enough power
to be 25-30 range. Could be a steal here.
Round
12
Best: OF Domingo Santana SEA, Ring – The power,
speed, and on-base skills haven’t eroded since he went 88/30/85/15/.371 in
2017. He’s 26. There’s a star hiding here.
Runner-up: 3B Miguel Sano MIN, Tomahawk – There’s too
many X factors in this round, so I’m just going with the guy who has produced
at a 89/36/100/1/.336 rate in his career (162 game average). The problem is
he’s never played more than 116 games.
Worst:
DH Shohei Otani LAA, Tomahawk – I think he’ll be productive when he plays, but
I honestly have no clue when that will be given his health and the DH/1B
logjam. And long-term, you’d rather have him as an SP.
Runner-up: 2B/OF Nick Senzel CIN, Knuckle – Just early
for a NA with many obstructions to PT.
X
Factor: SP Dallas Keuchel FA, Anal – His
heals are dug in and the bites just don’t seem to be there. It could
potentially be a long time to hold a dead roster spot. But when he does play,
he’ll probably be good, but don’t forget about Greg Holland last year.
Round
13
Best:
OF Max Kepler MIN, Knuckle – It seems like he’s been around for a while, but
he’s only 26 and sports a 11.6% BB% and 15.7% K%. Plus, that BABIP was crazy
unlucky. He could be a keeper next year.
Runner-up: SP Rich Hill LAD, One Nut – So, he’s starting
off the year injured, but he’s great at picking up where he left off and being
a consistent contributor.
Worst:
SP Alex Wood CIN, Napalm – So, he’s starting off the year injured, but he sucks
at picking up where he left off and being a consistent contributor.
Runner-up: RP Blake Treinen OAK, Knebel – Diaz went too
early too, but I just don’t have much faith Treinen’s going to be 9 rounds
better than Barnes, Bradley or Strop.
X
Factor: SP Brad Peacock HOU, Angry – The
overall numbers and makeup look great, but those are mostly RP innings and it’s
likely he gets bumped from the rotation at some point.
Round
14
Best:
SS Elvis Andrus TEX, Anal – He was 100/20/88/25/.337 in 2017. Any semblance of
that guy is well worth this draft spot.
Runner-up: SP Kevin Gausman ATL, Knuckle – There’s too
many skills to not expect him to excel in NL. Nothing bad underlying, just
needs health.
Worst: 1B Eric Hosmer SD, Cowhide – The problem here
is there’s just nothing in the numbers that say he’s anything more than the 72/18/69/7/.322
guy he was last year, which is available on the wire at any time.
Runner-up: SP Carlos Rodon CHW, One Nut – Seems like
we’ve been waiting for him to emerge forever. Last year’s 17.6 K% and 10.8 BB%
isn’t promising.
X
Factor: 1B Peter Alonso, NYM,
Montezuma’s – Yes, Jason, this is a real player. And yes, he could be back in
the minors just as quickly as he ripped through spring training pitchers. Dom
Smith is still a one-time prospect who’s never been given a shot. Leash won’t
be long, but he’s started the season in the #2 spot and hit 92/36/119/0/.395 in
132 minor league games last year.
Round
15
Best: 1B Josh Bell PIT, Moose – There wasn’t much
special that stood out this round, but Bell is a potential top 10 1B. His power
has fluctuated in his two full seasons, but could easily be a 90/25/90/.350 guy.
Runner-up: OF Billy Hamilton KC, Anal – Normally Billy H
ends up in my worst picks, but this round is a good place to take someone with
clear path to playing time and who is on a team that likes to run. With SBs
harder to find these days, 60 sbs is well worth the OBP hit.
Worst:
SP Dakota Hudson STL, Brokeback – There are so many better fliers to take at
this point in the draft. Hudson was never a great prospect and his K:BB ratio
is awful. If you like him, great. He’ll be available on the wire soon.
Runner-up: SP Forrest Whitley HOU, Tomahawk – Taking an
NA at this point has to be a near lock to contribute meaningfully this season
or be a keeper next season. The Astros are competing and don’t like relying on
young arms, so I have a hard time seeing either happen.
X
Factor: 2B Ryan McMahon COL, Brokeback –
There’s a lot to like about McMahon, including some nice position eligibility
and favorable ballpark. But playing time is cloudy and he hasn’t been all that
impressive when he’s played.
Round
16
Best: OF Mallex Smith SEA, Ring – With top-level
on-base skills, this is a steal (yes, pun intended again).
Runner-up: SP Sonny Gray CIN, Cowhide – Reliable
pitching is hard to find at this point in the draft, and Gray hardly is
reliable. But he has been in the past and he’s got the skillset and track
record to be a solid #3 when he’s on.
Worst: SP Andrew Heaney LAA, Montezumas – Time will
tell if this is a serious elbow injury or mild inflammation like last year.
Either way, this guy has a long history or arm issues for a player without a
long history of playing.
Runner-up:
TIE SP Touki Toussaint ATL, Moose and SP
Josh James HOU, Knebel – Two moderate pedigree prospects who at the time of the
draft we knew were not making the starting rotation, so both wasted picks.
X
Factor: OF Franmil Reyes SD, Knebel –
His current output comes out to a 65/30/60/0/.330 player right now, but he’s
only 23. There’s a lot of options in the SD OF, so this could either boom or
bust.
Round
17
Best: SS Paul DeJong STL, Montezumas – Two partial
seasons makes it hard to comprehend his potential, but at 25 DeJong’s 162-game
average is 88/32/96/1/.319, and now he’s batting between Goldy and Ozuna. Huge
value here.
Runner-up: OF Ian Desmond, S. Napalm – Everyone likes to
shit on Desmond, but there’s few better bets to go 20/20 each season.
Worst: OF Odubel Herrera PHI, Anal – It’s hard to
get a read on this guy because he’s so volatile, but he’s gone from #3 hitter
to overshadowed in an All-Star lineup pretty quick and there are plenty of
options to replace him when he struggles.
Runner-up:
2B Chris Taylor LAD, Donkey – Wasn’t long ago he was an afterthought-turned-potential
keeper, but now he’s stuck in a bench role and his production declined to
serviceable last year, so he could turn to boring pretty quick.
X
Factor: TIE SP Caleb Smith MIA, Angry and SP Jimmy Nelson MIL, Montezuma’s –
Both had major injuries last year and both have shown ace-level production with
200 K potential when healthy.
Round
18
Best: SP Marcus Stroman TOR, Montezuma’s – When you
consider how much of a struggle it is to find consistent starting pitching, it
is tempting to ignore track record and try to find the next big thing. Stroman had solid #4 outputs prior to last
season and is a good bet to recover that.
Runner-up: SP Jeff Samardzija SF, Tomahawk – See
Stroman, Marcus, add 8 years of age.
Worst: SP Lance Lynn TEX, Donkey – He’ll have some
great games, but they’re hardly worth the blowups. His walk rate has climbed
each of the last four years and he just signed on for summers in the best
hitting environments in the majors.
Runner-up: SP Sandy Alcantara MIA, Thor – I don’t mind
him as a prospect, but I know MIA is going nowhere and have a lot of rotation
options, so I can’t see a scenario where he worth taking here, especially for a
team with a poor draftboard.
X
Factor: 3B Jake Lamb ARI, Montezuma’s – Lamb was a monster in 2017
(89/30/105/6/.357) and almost as good the year prior. You can expect health
this year, but you can’t count on playing time with those splits. All-Star or
waiver wire?
Round
19
Best: SP Kyle Gibson MIN, Thor – This is why it’s
confusing to see some young SPs go before this round. Gibson made some great
advances in the K department last year and has always had the stuff of a solid
#4-5.
Runner-up: OF Shin-Soo Choo, Anal – Choo always seems to
be on this list… probably because he’s always undervalued. His reputation of
fragility is a misnomer as he’s gone over 630 plate appearances in 3 of the
last 4 seasons and is almost a guarantee to go 90/20/75/5/.370.
Worst:
SP Eric Lauer SD, One Nut – Just because he’s the opening day starter doesn’t
mean he’s any good.
Runner-up: OF Randal Grichuk TOR, Knuckle – Such
enticing power… that will be available on the waiver wire in a month.
X
Factor: SP Carlos Martinez STL, S.
Napalm – I don’t know if he’s going to come back and crush it as a starter or
as a reliever or never play this season, but I do know that this pick is a
Gibbyish as it could possibly be.
Round
20
Best: C Austin Barnes LAD, Tomahawk – Love the rare
cross-category potential for a catcher. Finally has an opportunity to fulfill
the promise he’s shown in spurts.
Runner-up: SP Anibal Sanchez WAS, Tomahawk – Another
solid SP that was available well after a lot of risky picks were made. He was
very good last year and could be even better this season.
Worst: OF Corey Dickerson PIT, Knebel – One of the
classic players that take a real hit in OBP leagues, Dickerson’s BB% dropped
again last year to a pathetic 3.9% while his ISO also fell for a third straight
year. Just don’t see a realistic way he advances past waiver wire fodder this
year.
Runner-up: SP Jonathan Loaisiga NYY, Ring – Not to pick
on people’s NA choices at this point, but I’m just skeptical he will ever get a
real shot this season, which negates the value of the spot.
X
Factor: C Francisco Mejia SD, Angry – No
one doubts the skills, but he would’ve gone 10 rounds earlier if there was a DH
slot or a crappy second catcher on the team. Hedges is a stud on defense, so
Mejia will have to earn ABs or find a new position.
Round
21
Best: C Mike Zunino TB, One Nut – When draft a
catcher outside of the top 3-4, you’re basically looking for three categories
and playing time. Zunino straight up mashes and TB will let him play.
Runner-up: RP Jose Alvarado TB, Knebel – It’s sometimes
hard to wade through the value of RP arms in the later rounds, but Alvarado was
great last year and will get plenty of work this years as closer. Considering
similar RPs went 5-7 rounds earlier, this is a great find.
Worst: 3B Scott Kingery PHI, S. Napalm – With OF
stacked and Segura added, it’s going to be hard to find ABs for last year’s
spring training darling.
Runner-up: SP Adam Wainright STL, Cowhide – Dave just
doesn’t know how to quit you.
X
Factor: OF Jorge Soler KC, Montezuma’s –
A career of injuries and lack of playing time has prevented Soler from a full
season of at bats, but he’s got a good walk rate, lots of power, and a regular
spot on a rebuilding team. We could see an age 27 breakout here.
Round
22
Best: RP Matt Barnes BOS, One Nut – I’d be shocked
if he doesn’t have the closer job all season, making this a much more valuable
pick than where he went.
Runner-up: SP Domingo German NYY, Ring – The skillset is
there to be an exceptional back of the rotation type, but the amount of innings
he’ll get is hard to predict.
Worst: SP Adam Ottavino NYY, Angry – Love the
Yankees, love the bullpen, but when you got Chapman, Betances, Britton,
Ottavino, Green, and more, the number of opportunities for holds could be
limited.
Runner-up: OF Tyler ONeill STL, Thor – Have a hard time
seeing enough playing time and production for O’Neill to show off his epic
power.
X
Factor: SP Trevor Williams PIT, Knuckle
– That boring skillset is hardly inspiring, but if last year wasn’t a fluke,
then the new guy just got an SP5 for the price of an SP9.
Round
23
Best: 2B Kike Hernandez LAD, Tomahawk – I don’t
know what he’ll get out of a full season of PT, but I do know last season’s
rates applied to a full season of ABs would have him around 90/30/75/5/.340. At
age 27, it’s a great shot to take.
Runner-up:
3B Jeimer Candelario DET, Knuckle –
Nothing sexy about this guy, but he is solid all around and takes bases with
the best of them.
Worst: SP Gio Gonzalez NYY, Thor – I could’ve gotten
behind this pick if Gio ended up on just about any other team. The Yankees were
perhaps the worst spot for him.
Runner-up:
SP Chad Green NYY, S. Napalm – See Ottavino, Adam.
X
Factor: SP Alex Cobb BAL, Montezuma’s –
He took a while to get back in the flow after injury, and the AL East was not a
welcoming spot to regain your confidence, but the second half showed signs of
the Alex Cobb we once knew. Great shot to take here with a team full of risky
assets.
Round
24
Best: SP Lucas Giolito, CWS, S. Napalm – There’s
not much to love about this guy, but the last round was made for selections
like this. Go for the upside and realize you’ll know pretty quickly whether to
cut bait.
Runner-up: 3B Maikel Franco PHI, Montezuma’s – He’ll be
buried in the lineup now, but Franco has always had a remarkable ability to
make good contact and limit strike outs, making him idea for the 8th
spot in the order and provides some hope for a better OBP. At 26, there’s still
a potential breakout here.
Worst: RP Steve Cishek CHC, Thor – Hard to be the
worst pick in the last round, but as much of a mess as this bullpen is, I don’t
see Cishek being the one that emerges.
Runner-up: SP Tony Watson SF, Moose – Have you seen the
Giants lineup this year? This team will not be winning much this season.
X
Factor: OF Joc Pederson LAD, S. Napalm – Love you, Joc. Take care of him for
me, Gibby.
