2019 Draft Review

Round 7

Best:  3B Eugenio Suarez CIN, Ring – Simply the best player available.  Posted 79/34/104/1/.366 at age 26 and now has a better lineup around him.

Runner-up:  3B Matt Chapman OAK, Cowhide – He’s a little overrated given his age (26), but solid advances could turn him into an easy keeper.

Worst:  OF Byron Buxton MIN, Tomahawk – And I’m actually more bullish on him than past years given where he was being drafted, which is mid-14^th round according to Yahoo ADP. This was not the mid-14^th round.

Runner-up:  3B Justin Turner LAD, Brokeback – Yes, the .400 OBP is nice, but we’re still talking about a 34yo who has exceeded 457 ABs once in his career  - and after that year has averaged 67/18/61/5 in the other categories.

X Factor:  SP Luis Castillo CIN, S. Napalm – Surprised #2 starter taken after being dropped outright last year (after being a second round pick), but he finished strong and could leap into keeper category.

Round 8

Best:  SP Chris Archer PIT, Montezumas – Averaged 250 Ks from 2015-17 and has moved from the AL East to full time in the NL Central, a pitcher’s park, and a notoriously favorable coaching staff.

Runner-up:  1B Edwin Encarnacion SEA, Donkey – Missed some time last year to injury, but otherwise was his normal productive self – especially when you consider his .265 BABIP. Expect more keeper-level production, even at 36.

Worst:  RP Josh Hader MIL, Knuckle – In a S+H league, RPs are just not that valuable, no matter how good they are. Tough lesson to learn for the rook.

Runner-up:  SP Mile Mikolas STL, Brokeback – Nit-picking in a good round, but just doesn’t have the K upside I need from an SP this high.

X Factor:  SP Shane Bieber CLE, Knebel – Amazing how hyped he got considering a pedestrian 4.55/1.33, but there’s a lot of underlying goodness here – 3.30 xFIP, .356 BABIP, 19.6% K-BB%, 11.4 SwStr%. Still wasn’t a big prospect, and feasted off some lackluster AL Central lineups at the end of the season, so could go south too.

Round 9

Best:  2B Brian Dozier WAS, Brokeback – My love for Dozier is based on nothing but statistics. Lingering injuries caused numbers to dip last year, but this guy was easy 100/30/90/15/.340 the three seasons prior and joins a deep WAS lineup.

Runner-up:  2B Yoan Moncada CHW, One Nut – The hype train finally slowed down long enough to take an honest look. There’s enough improvement, youth, and bad luck to EXPECT 75/20/75/20/.330, but it could be even better.

Worst:  SP Chris Paddack SD, Knebel – Paddack must’ve taken Moncada’s place on the hype train because this is nuts. He pitched 89 innings last year and wasn’t overly impressive in AA. Missed 2017 for TJS. Before that, MLB.com had him as the 27^th best prospect … in the Padres system. There’s enough stuff to like for sure, but this eliminates the ability of this to be a sleeper pick because the inning cap essentially removes the possibility of him even approaching the value of pitchers taken after him like Hamels, Porcello, Lester, Arrieta, and Happ.

Runner-up:  2B Garrett Hampson COL, Knebel – Again, Jeff, they aren’t considered sleepers if you take them above established stars.

X Factor:  SP Jose Quintana CHC, Thor – I like him plenty, but the truth is this could be a complete flop he continues to trend downward. But there’s enough reason to be optimistic and see the potential for a top 30 SP again.

Round 10

Best:  2B Dee Gordon SEA, One Nut – There are only so many speed assets that can contribute to other categories. Gordon has long been a keeper capable of hitting 50+ SBs with R and decent OBP. Injury behind him now, this is a steal (pun intended).

Runner-up:  2B Jonathan Villar BAL, Montezumas – See Gordon, Dee, add greater volatility and a shitty lineup.

Worst: SP Tyler Glasnow TB, Thor – I don’t like anything I saw in the spring, especially given past control issues and TB’s willingness to mess with innings. If he hits 25% QS% I’ll be shocked.  

Runner-up:  OF Kyle Shwarber CHC, Knebel – You could’ve had the amount of at bats and the same 60/30/60/5/.340 line in the 24^th round with Joc Pederson.

X Factor:  1B Matt Olson OAK, Anal – This could pay off huge once Olson returns in late-May/early-June, but the question is whether that hamate injury saps his most desirable asset. Pitchers park doesn’t help.

Round 11

Best:  1B Justin Smoak TOR, Donkey – 2018 wasn’t quite like 2017, but this is four-category goodness after many less deserving selections.

Runner-up:  OF Aaron Hick NYY, Donkey – Dropped from a keeper to a 5^th rounder? Injury prone and currently injured but will be atop a powerful lineup when healthy.

Worst:  OF Ender Inciarte ATL, Angry – Nitpicking in a good round, but for a guy who gets so many ABs, his stats are pretty meh. 162-game average is 90/8/51/25/.337 and for a base stealer, he’s not very good at it (33 CS%)

Runner-up:  SP Joey Lucchesi SD, Donkey – Nice park, but he’s a 4.00/1.30 27yo who doesn’t go deep into games and won’t be allowed to go past 160 ip.

X Factor: OF Jesse Winker CIN, Brokeback – If only we knew how the playing time would break down. He’s a near lock to be .370+ OBP and has shown enough power to be 25-30 range. Could be a steal here.

Round 12

Best:  OF Domingo Santana SEA, Ring – The power, speed, and on-base skills haven’t eroded since he went 88/30/85/15/.371 in 2017. He’s 26. There’s a star hiding here.

Runner-up:  3B Miguel Sano MIN, Tomahawk – There’s too many X factors in this round, so I’m just going with the guy who has produced at a 89/36/100/1/.336 rate in his career (162 game average). The problem is he’s never played more than 116 games. 

Worst: DH Shohei Otani LAA, Tomahawk – I think he’ll be productive when he plays, but I honestly have no clue when that will be given his health and the DH/1B logjam. And long-term, you’d rather have him as an SP.

Runner-up:  2B/OF Nick Senzel CIN, Knuckle – Just early for a NA with many obstructions to PT.

X Factor:  SP Dallas Keuchel FA, Anal – His heals are dug in and the bites just don’t seem to be there. It could potentially be a long time to hold a dead roster spot. But when he does play, he’ll probably be good, but don’t forget about Greg Holland last year.

Round 13

Best: OF Max Kepler MIN, Knuckle – It seems like he’s been around for a while, but he’s only 26 and sports a 11.6% BB% and 15.7% K%. Plus, that BABIP was crazy unlucky. He could be a keeper next year.

Runner-up:  SP Rich Hill LAD, One Nut – So, he’s starting off the year injured, but he’s great at picking up where he left off and being a consistent contributor.

Worst: SP Alex Wood CIN, Napalm – So, he’s starting off the year injured, but he sucks at picking up where he left off and being a consistent contributor.

Runner-up:  RP Blake Treinen OAK, Knebel – Diaz went too early too, but I just don’t have much faith Treinen’s going to be 9 rounds better than Barnes, Bradley or Strop.

X Factor:  SP Brad Peacock HOU, Angry – The overall numbers and makeup look great, but those are mostly RP innings and it’s likely he gets bumped from the rotation at some point.

Round 14

Best: SS Elvis Andrus TEX, Anal – He was 100/20/88/25/.337 in 2017. Any semblance of that guy is well worth this draft spot.

Runner-up:  SP Kevin Gausman ATL, Knuckle – There’s too many skills to not expect him to excel in NL. Nothing bad underlying, just needs health.

Worst:  1B Eric Hosmer SD, Cowhide – The problem here is there’s just nothing in the numbers that say he’s anything more than the 72/18/69/7/.322 guy he was last year, which is available on the wire at any time.

Runner-up:  SP Carlos Rodon CHW, One Nut – Seems like we’ve been waiting for him to emerge forever. Last year’s 17.6 K% and 10.8 BB% isn’t promising.

X Factor:  1B Peter Alonso, NYM, Montezuma’s – Yes, Jason, this is a real player. And yes, he could be back in the minors just as quickly as he ripped through spring training pitchers. Dom Smith is still a one-time prospect who’s never been given a shot. Leash won’t be long, but he’s started the season in the #2 spot and hit 92/36/119/0/.395 in 132 minor league games last year.

Round 15

Best:  1B Josh Bell PIT, Moose – There wasn’t much special that stood out this round, but Bell is a potential top 10 1B. His power has fluctuated in his two full seasons, but could easily be a 90/25/90/.350 guy.

Runner-up:  OF Billy Hamilton KC, Anal – Normally Billy H ends up in my worst picks, but this round is a good place to take someone with clear path to playing time and who is on a team that likes to run. With SBs harder to find these days, 60 sbs is well worth the OBP hit.

Worst: SP Dakota Hudson STL, Brokeback – There are so many better fliers to take at this point in the draft. Hudson was never a great prospect and his K:BB ratio is awful. If you like him, great. He’ll be available on the wire soon.

Runner-up:  SP Forrest Whitley HOU, Tomahawk – Taking an NA at this point has to be a near lock to contribute meaningfully this season or be a keeper next season. The Astros are competing and don’t like relying on young arms, so I have a hard time seeing either happen.

X Factor:  2B Ryan McMahon COL, Brokeback – There’s a lot to like about McMahon, including some nice position eligibility and favorable ballpark. But playing time is cloudy and he hasn’t been all that impressive when he’s played.

Round 16

Best:  OF Mallex Smith SEA, Ring – With top-level on-base skills, this is a steal (yes, pun intended again).

Runner-up:  SP Sonny Gray CIN, Cowhide – Reliable pitching is hard to find at this point in the draft, and Gray hardly is reliable. But he has been in the past and he’s got the skillset and track record to be a solid #3 when he’s on.

Worst:  SP Andrew Heaney LAA, Montezumas – Time will tell if this is a serious elbow injury or mild inflammation like last year. Either way, this guy has a long history or arm issues for a player without a long history of playing.

Runner-up:  TIE SP Touki Toussaint ATL, Moose and SP Josh James HOU, Knebel – Two moderate pedigree prospects who at the time of the draft we knew were not making the starting rotation, so both wasted picks.

X Factor:  OF Franmil Reyes SD, Knebel – His current output comes out to a 65/30/60/0/.330 player right now, but he’s only 23. There’s a lot of options in the SD OF, so this could either boom or bust.

Round 17

Best:  SS Paul DeJong STL, Montezumas – Two partial seasons makes it hard to comprehend his potential, but at 25 DeJong’s 162-game average is 88/32/96/1/.319, and now he’s batting between Goldy and Ozuna. Huge value here.

Runner-up:  OF Ian Desmond, S. Napalm – Everyone likes to shit on Desmond, but there’s few better bets to go 20/20 each season.

Worst:  OF Odubel Herrera PHI, Anal – It’s hard to get a read on this guy because he’s so volatile, but he’s gone from #3 hitter to overshadowed in an All-Star lineup pretty quick and there are plenty of options to replace him when he struggles.

Runner-up: 2B Chris Taylor LAD, Donkey – Wasn’t long ago he was an afterthought-turned-potential keeper, but now he’s stuck in a bench role and his production declined to serviceable last year, so he could turn to boring pretty quick. 

X Factor: TIE SP Caleb Smith MIA, Angry and SP Jimmy Nelson MIL, Montezuma’s – Both had major injuries last year and both have shown ace-level production with 200 K potential when healthy.

Round 18

Best:  SP Marcus Stroman TOR, Montezuma’s – When you consider how much of a struggle it is to find consistent starting pitching, it is tempting to ignore track record and try to find the next big thing.  Stroman had solid #4 outputs prior to last season and is a good bet to recover that.

Runner-up:  SP Jeff Samardzija SF, Tomahawk – See Stroman, Marcus, add 8 years of age.

Worst:  SP Lance Lynn TEX, Donkey – He’ll have some great games, but they’re hardly worth the blowups. His walk rate has climbed each of the last four years and he just signed on for summers in the best hitting environments in the majors.

Runner-up:  SP Sandy Alcantara MIA, Thor – I don’t mind him as a prospect, but I know MIA is going nowhere and have a lot of rotation options, so I can’t see a scenario where he worth taking here, especially for a team with a poor draftboard.

X Factor: 3B Jake Lamb ARI, Montezuma’s – Lamb was a monster in 2017 (89/30/105/6/.357) and almost as good the year prior. You can expect health this year, but you can’t count on playing time with those splits. All-Star or waiver wire?

Round 19

Best:  SP Kyle Gibson MIN, Thor – This is why it’s confusing to see some young SPs go before this round. Gibson made some great advances in the K department last year and has always had the stuff of a solid #4-5.

Runner-up:  OF Shin-Soo Choo, Anal – Choo always seems to be on this list… probably because he’s always undervalued. His reputation of fragility is a misnomer as he’s gone over 630 plate appearances in 3 of the last 4 seasons and is almost a guarantee to go 90/20/75/5/.370.

Worst: SP Eric Lauer SD, One Nut – Just because he’s the opening day starter doesn’t mean he’s any good.

Runner-up:  OF Randal Grichuk TOR, Knuckle – Such enticing power… that will be available on the waiver wire in a month.

X Factor:  SP Carlos Martinez STL, S. Napalm – I don’t know if he’s going to come back and crush it as a starter or as a reliever or never play this season, but I do know that this pick is a Gibbyish as it could possibly be.

Round 20

Best:  C Austin Barnes LAD, Tomahawk – Love the rare cross-category potential for a catcher. Finally has an opportunity to fulfill the promise he’s shown in spurts.

Runner-up:  SP Anibal Sanchez WAS, Tomahawk – Another solid SP that was available well after a lot of risky picks were made. He was very good last year and could be even better this season.

Worst:  OF Corey Dickerson PIT, Knebel – One of the classic players that take a real hit in OBP leagues, Dickerson’s BB% dropped again last year to a pathetic 3.9% while his ISO also fell for a third straight year. Just don’t see a realistic way he advances past waiver wire fodder this year.

Runner-up:  SP Jonathan Loaisiga NYY, Ring – Not to pick on people’s NA choices at this point, but I’m just skeptical he will ever get a real shot this season, which negates the value of the spot.

X Factor:  C Francisco Mejia SD, Angry – No one doubts the skills, but he would’ve gone 10 rounds earlier if there was a DH slot or a crappy second catcher on the team. Hedges is a stud on defense, so Mejia will have to earn ABs or find a new position.

Round 21

Best:  C Mike Zunino TB, One Nut – When draft a catcher outside of the top 3-4, you’re basically looking for three categories and playing time. Zunino straight up mashes and TB will let him play.

Runner-up:  RP Jose Alvarado TB, Knebel – It’s sometimes hard to wade through the value of RP arms in the later rounds, but Alvarado was great last year and will get plenty of work this years as closer. Considering similar RPs went 5-7 rounds earlier, this is a great find.

Worst:  3B Scott Kingery PHI, S. Napalm – With OF stacked and Segura added, it’s going to be hard to find ABs for last year’s spring training darling.

Runner-up:  SP Adam Wainright STL, Cowhide – Dave just doesn’t know how to quit you.

X Factor:  OF Jorge Soler KC, Montezuma’s – A career of injuries and lack of playing time has prevented Soler from a full season of at bats, but he’s got a good walk rate, lots of power, and a regular spot on a rebuilding team. We could see an age 27 breakout here.

Round 22

Best:  RP Matt Barnes BOS, One Nut – I’d be shocked if he doesn’t have the closer job all season, making this a much more valuable pick than where he went.

Runner-up:  SP Domingo German NYY, Ring – The skillset is there to be an exceptional back of the rotation type, but the amount of innings he’ll get is hard to predict.

Worst:  SP Adam Ottavino NYY, Angry – Love the Yankees, love the bullpen, but when you got Chapman, Betances, Britton, Ottavino, Green, and more, the number of opportunities for holds could be limited.

Runner-up:  OF Tyler ONeill STL, Thor – Have a hard time seeing enough playing time and production for O’Neill to show off his epic power.

X Factor:  SP Trevor Williams PIT, Knuckle – That boring skillset is hardly inspiring, but if last year wasn’t a fluke, then the new guy just got an SP5 for the price of an SP9.

Round 23

Best:  2B Kike Hernandez LAD, Tomahawk – I don’t know what he’ll get out of a full season of PT, but I do know last season’s rates applied to a full season of ABs would have him around 90/30/75/5/.340. At age 27, it’s a great shot to take.

Runner-up:  3B Jeimer Candelario DET, Knuckle – Nothing sexy about this guy, but he is solid all around and takes bases with the best of them.  

Worst:  SP Gio Gonzalez NYY, Thor – I could’ve gotten behind this pick if Gio ended up on just about any other team. The Yankees were perhaps the worst spot for him.

Runner-up: SP Chad Green NYY, S. Napalm – See Ottavino, Adam. 

X Factor:  SP Alex Cobb BAL, Montezuma’s – He took a while to get back in the flow after injury, and the AL East was not a welcoming spot to regain your confidence, but the second half showed signs of the Alex Cobb we once knew. Great shot to take here with a team full of risky assets.

Round 24

Best:  SP Lucas Giolito, CWS, S. Napalm – There’s not much to love about this guy, but the last round was made for selections like this. Go for the upside and realize you’ll know pretty quickly whether to cut bait.

Runner-up:  3B Maikel Franco PHI, Montezuma’s – He’ll be buried in the lineup now, but Franco has always had a remarkable ability to make good contact and limit strike outs, making him idea for the 8^th spot in the order and provides some hope for a better OBP. At 26, there’s still a potential breakout here.

Worst:  RP Steve Cishek CHC, Thor – Hard to be the worst pick in the last round, but as much of a mess as this bullpen is, I don’t see Cishek being the one that emerges. 

Runner-up:  SP Tony Watson SF, Moose – Have you seen the Giants lineup this year? This team will not be winning much this season.

X Factor: OF Joc Pederson LAD, S. Napalm – Love you, Joc. Take care of him for me, Gibby.