Methodology: Rankings
are purely quantitative, with overall ranked based on the average ranking of
keepers and draft picks. Keepers are ranked based on the average Yahoo ranking
for 2014. Draft status is ranked based on cumulative point total, which is generated
using a sliding 12-point scale that assigns value to each pick.
Obviously it has its limitations as Yahoo rankings don’t
take OBP or QS into account, nor does it rank based on keeper value so teams
are penalized for keeping guys like Springer, Bogaerts, and Taveras. While it
shows a flaw in the ranking, it also reflects the inherent risk in keeping
rookies. No matter how talented they are, it can take time (see Profar,
Jurickson). We also don’t know the draft order yet, so the actual value is somewhat
unclear. There’s also a weighting issue that can’t be easily resolved, so even
though Russ has incredible keepers, he simply is ranked 1 and Mike is 2 – when,
in reality, Russ should be ranked 1 and the rest of us should start around 6 or
so. Still, it’s a pretty good evaluation
of where everyone stands heading into the draft.
1. Sexual Napalm – Mike Gibson (2.5)
Keeper Rank: 2nd (average: 32), Draft Rank: 3rd
(total points: 115)
Darvish, Beltre, Gomez, Strasburg, and Freeman are all
ranked in the top 31, with Machado coming in at 81, so the keepers look great.
Mike lacks additional early picks but he will own the middle rounds,
highlighted by four picks in the 14th and only two picks past round
17. In only one year, Mike has managed to completely turn around the fortunes
for this once pathetic franchise by masterfully balancing being competitive (he
made the playoffs) and building for the future. The only way to rebuild is
through active management, and no one is more active than Mike.
2. Keepin it Real – Pierce Cole (4.0)
Keeper: 4th (38 avg), Draft: 4th (102 pts)
Pedroia, Scherzer, Ellsbury, Sale, Desmond, and Heyward give
Pierce one of the most balanced groups in terms of pitching, position scarcity,
and youth infusion – albeit without one real mega-talent (all ranked
19-66). Last year’s runner-up is in
great shape draft-wise thanks to some active trading, which, like Mike, gives
him a load of middle picks. Its sometimes hard to be competitive and plan for
the future, so nice job here by the silent but dangerous Pierce.
3. Urban Achievers – Dan Plourde (4.5)
Keeper: 7th
(48 avg), Draft: 2nd (124 pts)
Harper, Pujols, Cain, Marte, Rios, and Gio represent a nice
middle-of-the pack group with ample upside and two stalwarts at the starting
positions. Dan did a nice job improving his keepers (adding Rios and Gio) for
2014 while maintaining a favorable draft position. He has 12 picks in four rounds (13-16) and no
picks after 16 (well, besides the new 25th round). Dan has had a
rough go of it since joining the league three years ago, but this could be the
year he turns this roster into a playoff team.
4. Overrated – Russ Stutsky (5.0)
Keeper: 1st (16 avg), Draft: 9th (79 pts)
If not for Russ’ meager 65th ranking for Cole,
his average ranking for Trout, Cano, CarGo, Hanley, and Kershaw is a
mind-boggling 6 --- yes, that’s a fucking 6. This is likely the greatest group
(projected) in the history of the league, so the rankings probably should be a
bit higher based on a quality weight. However, he’s got a gaping three-round
gap in rounds 13-15, which brings down his draft score a bit, though he makes
up for it a few rounds later with a cluster of eight picks in three rounds and a
normal board thereafter. Russ typically has very good drafts, so he could easily
enter the season as the front runner.
5 (tie). Angry Pirates – Kyle Baker (7.0)
Keeper: 6th
(45 avg), Draft: 8th (81 pts)
Kyle underwent an extreme keeper makeover this offseason and
improved his ranking in this position exponentially by trading for Upton,
Bautista, Kimbrel, and Dom Brown, who join an intriguing duo in Kipnis and
Puig. While they rank well, there are already balance issues already with four
OFs and no SPs. He sacrificed draft position to gain in this area and now has a
pretty normal looking board, with just one gap in 11. One thing is for sure is
that Kyle won’t be lacking power.
5 (tie). Cowhide Joyride – Dave Fox (7.0)
Keeper: 13th (91 avg), Draft: 1st (131 pts)
Posey, Price, Sandoval, Hosmer, Craig, and Taveras are an
unimpressive bunch with some significant risks in the youth, health, and
obesity departments, as Dave opted to maintain his excellent draft status
rather than trade for high-end keepers. With 11 picks in the first six rounds,
Dave is in better position than anybody to dominate the draft. If his keepers
end up producing at even just their projected rankings, Dave should be
competitive and deep.
7 (tie). I ATE THE MUNCHKINS – Chris Shomphe (7.5)
Keeper: 3rd (34 avg), Draft: 12th (70 pts)
Miggy, Braun, Wright, Stanton, CSantana, and JZimmermann
give Chris an excellent shot to be competitive in his first year as this is
easily one of the best groups in the league.
That said, despite the team’s consistent suckiness in 2013, Brandon left
Chris with a pretty poor draft board and he has a massive four-round gap in
rounds 13-16. Those can be tough rounds to watch as you see the options to fill
your roster holes dry up quickly over the course of 60 picks or so. So, its not
all roses for Chris and there’s certainly a learning curve to all this, but
he’ll be in it if he drafts well.
7 (tie). Montezuma’s Revenge – Adam Leech (7.5)
Keeper: 8th
(50 avg), Draft: 7th (82 pts)
McCutchen, Hamels, Choo, Fernandez, Segura,
and Rizzo are a good group with some question marks, particularly the youth of
the final three. An active offseason allowed me to improve my keepers, with the
addition of McCutchen and picking up some extra picks through the trades of
Upton, Cole, Springer, Zimmerman, McCann, and Kimbrel. While my pick status is in the middle, I
would’ve been in 13th if I didn’t do anything this offseason. And in the process of liquidating assets, I
managed to fill in enough gaps so I don’t have consecutive rounds off. Overall
mediocrity from the outset will require a good draft.
9 (tie). Ring of Fire – Dagan Loisel (8.0)
Keeper: 5th (40 avg), Draft: 11th (71 pts)
Goldshmidt, Votto, Kemp, Bruce, RZimmerman, and Pence have
the making of a dominant offense. However,
his best guys aren’t at premium positions and he’s keeping two 1Bs in a year
with exceptional 1B depth. Dagan is also
one of two teams without an SP to start the season, but pitching can be won
without an “ace” and there’s lots of good options there. Unfortunately for
Dagan, he may have missed on an opportunity to cash in some of the guys he
didn’t keep for better picks, and has gaps in 10, 13 and 15 with no extra picks
early. Still, this is Dagan. I don’t expect the string of playoff seasons to
suddenly stop with this very good group.
9 (tie). Prestige Worldwide – Lars Borssen (8.0)
Keeper: 11th
(65 avg), Draft: 5th (88 pts)
EE and Longoria highlight a sixsome that is nice at top, but
quickly falls off with Trumbo, Werth, Minor, and Gordon all pretty mediocre
options, with Trumbo a two-category stud and OBP hindrance and the other three
good-not-great across categories. Lars is the only team that didn’t trade a
single pick for the year, so he enters the draft with an unexciting but
complete board. He probably should’ve used a pick or two to get slightly better
keeper options, but there’s enough talent and picks to compete.
11. Anal Hershiser – Andrew Campbell (9.5)
Keeper: 14th (103 avg), Draft: 5th (88 pts)
Verlander, Bumgarner, Myers, Donaldson, McCann and Springer
are the lowest ranking group in the league for 2014, with Springer’s 258th
ranking distorting some good quality elsewhere.
Springer could play his way to a top keeper with 5-category
Grady-Sizemore-in-his prime-like upside or he could spend the year in the
minors. The addition of the NA slot mitigates some of the risk there. Draft
status is pretty good as he avoided dealing great picks for keeper upgrades,
highlighted by seven picks in three middle rounds. Still, for keepers this
lackluster, you’d expect a better draft board. Andrew has some work to do.
12. Donkey Punchers – Chris Shannon (10.0)
Keeper: 10th (63 avg) Draft: 10th (75
pts)
Fielder, Wainright, Holliday, Seager, MCarpenter, and Cobb
represent an interesting, Cardinal-heavy group, with Seager and Cobb relative
surprises. A last minute deal helped Chris’ pick situation, though it looked
like he left a roster with a few more keeper-worthy players that could’ve been
dealt for picks (Homer, Alvarez, Shields, Cespedes). He’ll certainly be more
challenged drafting this year than last, but he’s got a pretty full board with
no gaping holes and a solid if not spectacular group of keepers to start.
13. Moose is Loose – Brian Bishop (11.0)
Keeper: 9th
(53 avg) Draft: 13th (68 pts)
The two-time and sitting champion had very little change
from last year’s keepers with Tulo, Greinke, Lee, Beltran, and Medlen all coming
back for another year, anchored by new addition and 2013 pick of the year Chris
Davis. The pick situation isn’t great, due to holes in 9, 11, and 17-19, but it
could be worse. A few years into this
draft pick trading thing, bad draft boards this year is nothing compared to previous
years, and surely Brian has no regrets about using those picks to bring him to
a championship.
14. One Nut Wonders – Jason Oullette (13.0)
Keeper: 12th (66 avg) Draft: 14th (60 pts)
The last two champions round up the bottom of the ranks,
with the rank of Jason’s keepers – AJones, Felix, Reyes, AGon, Kinsler, and
Xander – hurt by the youngster’s low rank (191). This is to be expected but certainly a
worthwhile player to keep with a solid group of veterans. Removing Bogaerts
would bring his average rank to 41, good enough for 6th. In terms of picks, I’m surprised to see such a
dismal situation, with easily the worst score thanks to no extra early picks,
no pick in the 10th, and a canyon-size four-round hole in 13-16.
Jason will only have made five picks by the time Dan is choosing his 24th
guy in the 16th round. But the leftovers on his roster just are not
that palatable.
