Trade Review - Angry Pirate & Donkey Puncher

Angry Pirates receive:
OF Nelson Cruz TEX
2B Dustin Ackley SEA
18th rounder
20th rounder in 2013

Donkey Punchers:
OF Matt Holliday STL
12th rounder
10th rounder in 2013

Even with the advent of draft pick trading, we still saw approximately the same number of offseason trades as in previous years. I expected more, but I think most teams either did their business before the trade deadline last year and really didn’t have much to move (Dave, Brandon, Russ) or are in the position where they’re looking at the draft picks and lamenting the picks lost prior to the deadline last year, and thus, don’t want to hurt their position further. For those teams with large gaps in between picks, going through this draft may ultimately cut back on some of the draft picks trades that went through last season. This supports the league’s decision not to take action to try and restrict trading of picks as there could potentially be some organic self-policing. Overall, even though I felt Dave’s idea of not allowing picks in the first three rounds had merit, I thought it was important to see how the year plays out and consider adjusting next season. Casten’s team will ultimately be a pretty interesting case study.

Anyhow, this trade sort of shows how difficult the market was. Kyle, quite frankly, had to do something. Whereas Casten can be forgiven for keeping Bryce Harper even though he’s likely to start the season in the minors because he has so many early picks, the Angry Pirates don’t have the luxury of keeping AAA-bound uber-prospect Mike Trout with one pick in the first four rounds. I think ultimately Cruz’s inability to stay healthy for an entire season juxtaposed with Holliday’s consistent health (prior to last year he had one year since 2006 where he played less than 155 games—139 games in 2008) puts Kyle is at the losing end of this trade. The 6-round downgrade is understandable, but the 10-round downgrade in the 2013 pick is particularly hurtful. Ultimately, I think just swapping the players without picks would’ve been pretty fair since there was really no way Chris could keep Ackley and he was getting the better player anyway. But, like I said, the market made it difficult to deal. Kyle certainly upgrades his keepers, with Stanton, Castro, Cruz, JJohnson, Ackley and Freeman representing a very solid group to start the season. There’s definitely some injury red flags here though with the aforementioned Cruz joining Stanton, who got one of the wrist in ST, Johnson coming off a six-start season, and Freeman dealing with a knee problem. All should be OK to start the season, but something to keep track of. Its tough to know what to expect from Ackley as he doesn’t do anything tremendously well from a fantasy perspective, though he should contribute in all categories.

As previously stated, Chris made out very well here in upgrading a keeper (joining a great group that includes Bautita, Tex, Halladay, and Napoli), while getting back a 12th rounder after trading his away, and acquiring a very good pick in 2013. The only negative impact is Ackley won’t be available for him to draft if he wanted to, but there’s some depth at second base this year and 10 teams already have the spot filled with a keeper, so there’s likely to be similar value in middle rounds. Nice move that puts him in great position to start the season.

Trade - Montezuma and Billy Chapel

Billy Chapel receives
SP Ian Kennedy ARI
3B Aramis Ramirez CHC
24th rounder

Montezuma’s Revenge receives
3B Brett Lawrie
13th rounder

Trading in the offseason is quite a bit different than inseason and this trade is a prime example of that. During the season, this would be a runaway win for Troy. Third base is very shallow this year and teams that do not keep a hot corner will be hoping guys like Sandoval and ARod are available to draft (and that Troy doesn’t draft one of them with the first pick, bringing his number of third basemen to three). After that, guys like Reynolds, Moustakas, Freese, Prado, Headley, and Bonafacio are the next best options. Having Beltre and Aramis gives Troy a very good UTIL hitter and a nice potential piece of trade bait, not to mention reliable power production. Meanwhile, the near unanimous opinion of Kennedy for prognosticators was that decline is inevitable, which isn’t surprising since he was a top eight pitcher last year, with 27 QS (73% of his starts), 198 Ks and a 2.88 era to go along with a paltry 1.09 whip. But most “experts” are speaking within the context of leagues that consider wins and unless you’re Roy Halladay, no one is ever predicted to go near the 21 wins Kennedy posted in 2011, meaning predictions of a decline are overstated for a QS league. Not to mention, he’s only 27 and had a very good 2010 that lead to the superb 2011 (I was quite confident going with him as my sixth keeper had the trade not gone through). So, getting a potential ace and one of the most consistent 3Bs in the league for a 22-year-old with 150 abs would an absolute steal during the season, even with draft pick swap. Troy was looking to de-risk his keepers and add depth, and he did just that. He has a solid fivesome (Pence, Victorino, Kennedy, Aramis, and Beltre) to start the season, which will be supplemented by whomever he chooses for his six spot (Morales maybe, another trade perhaps), not to mention his choice of the leftovers with the first pick in the draft.

But this is the offseason and most have predicted Lawrie to eventually be a star, with some expecting a 25/25 season this year. With Hosmer, Santana, Kinsler, Hamels, and JUpton already set as keepers, either Kennedy or Aram was going to go back to the draft pool anyway, so it made sense for me to do whatever I could to turn one of those guys into a draft pick. Though it started as a player-for-a-pick deal, negotiations ultimately brought about Lawrie as potential swap. And despite my history with young third basemen who experienced success in their first call-up (see last year’s first rounder Pedro Alvarez or 2010 keeper Gordon Beckham), I could not resist the potential. Not to mention, the market to gain draft picks has been bone dry. The pick gives me a sixth pick in the first eight rounds, which will hopefully help. The one potential problem for the Revenge is the “potential” problem. Two of my keepers are 22 years old (Hosmer as well), while Santana is 25 and Upton is 24. Pedigree aside, it’s somewhat troubling to be so reliant on youth. But if they hold their own, I could have a nice roster of youngins (Hamels is 28 and Kinsler is 30) for years to come.

Trade Review - One Nut and Urban

Urban Achievers receive:
SP Gio Gonzalez, WAS
2B Brandon Phillips CIN
21st rounder (15th)
23rd rounder (17th)

One Nut receives:
11th rounder (5th)
16th rounder (10th)

Nice deal here for both teams. Dan needed to improve his keepers one way or another and he did. Phillips does a lot of things good and nothing great, and is one of those players who is more valuable in leagues with average as a category rather than OBP (career avg is .272, obp is .322). PECOTA projections are a bit high in my opinion (89r/23hr/92rbi/20stl) as his last two seasons were something short of that in speed and power (18hr/16stl in 2010, 18/14 in 2011), but he’s gone 30/30 once, 20/20 twice, and is a lock for at least 80/15/80/15. Plus he’s only 31 and trying to get a new contract, certainly better than keeping Morneau, Kelly Johnson, or Gaby Sanchez. Gio is a tough one to peg as he can be extremely volatile. PECOTA has him at 163 ks (176ip) with at 4.08 era and 1.38 whip, which is not really keeper material. His 1.32 whip last year wasn’t killer and his 3.12 era and 197 ks (8.8 k/9) were quite good, but the projections indicate part of that was luck and you have to wonder what impact the change in leagues will have. In most cases, it helps, but Oakland is notorious for being a great pitcher’s park and the NL East looks pretty competitive this year. All in all, what keeps Gio from being a top tier pitcher (at least for our purposes) is a quality start percentage of 59%. By comparison, the top guys last year were Jered Weaver (85%) and Verlander (82%). He’s only 26, so there is room for improvement and he is a pretty decent number two guy. The bottom line is Dan’s keepers are much improved with CC, Desmond, Phillips, Gio, and probably Choo. He still has some questionable number six options as it is really tough to know what to expect from Chris Young and he could ultimately lose time to Parra, and Jesus Montero has a bright future but Yahoo has his only position as “Util.” The Olivio/Jaso platoon that Wedge has planned in Seattle may not leave many opportunities for the young gun to gain the eligibility that is really key to his overall value. It would be worth dealing with rookie volatility at catcher, but production from the UTIL slots is important for our league. You’d expect a better set of draft picks for a team that was out of it quite early last year (two picks in first five rounds), but the middle rounds are what separate the men from the boys in this league and he’s got plenty of those.

For Jason, it’s not much of a loss. His keepers include Braun, Weaver, Hanley, and Shields, with some other intriguing guys like Utley, Alex Gordon, and Miguel Montero. The drop off from Gio and Phillips to any of these three is either minimal or non-existent. Prior to the trade, Jason has a pretty sizable block of time where he wouldn’t do much picking, with only one pick from the 12th round to the 19th. The trade will give him a second in this period and a sixth pick in the first five rounds, so ultimately a good move. As you may expect, Jason is probably not done at least attempting to improve in the next two weeks.

Draft Order

UPDATED - March 8

7th
1 Billy Chapel
2 Clayton
3 Urban
4 Clayton
5 Cowhide
6 Donkey
7 Clayton
8 One Nut
9 Prestige
10 Prestige
11 Keepin
12 Anal
13 Grumpy
14 Ring
8th
15 Ring
16 Grumpy
17 Grumpy
18 Grumpy
19 Prestige
20 One Nut
21 Clayton
22 Grumpy
23 Grumpy
24 Cowhide
25 Montezuma
26 Moose
27 Donkey
28 Billy Chapel
9th
29 One Nut
30 Donkey
31 Moose
32 Montezuma
33 Cowhide
34 Angry Pirate
35 Moose
36 Clayon
37 Grumpy
38 Moose
39 Grumpy
40 Clayton
41 Grumpy
42 Ring
10th
43 Ring
44 Grumpy
45 Moose
46 Grumpy
47 Prestige
48 Donkey
49 Clayton
50 Urban
51 One Nut
52 Cowhide
53 Montezuma
54 Moose
55 Donkey
56 Billy Chapel
11
57 Billy Chapel
58 Donkey
59 One Nut
60 Cowhide
61 Cowhide
62 Angry
63 One Nut
64 Clayon
65 Cowhide
66 Prestige
67 Grumpy
68 Cowhide
69 Grumpy
70 Ring
12
71 Ring
72 Grumpy
73 Ring
74 Grumpy
75 Angry Pirate
76 Clayton
77 Clayton
78 Urban
79 Angry Pirate
80 Cowhide
81 Grumpy
82 Cowhide
83 Clayton
84 Billy Chapel
13
85 Montezuma
86 Urban
87 Moose
88 Montezuma
89 Cowhide
90 Angry Pirate
91 Billy Chapel
92 Clayon
93 Angry Pirate
94 Cowhide
95 Keepin
96 Moose
97 Grumpy
98 Ring
14
99 Ring
100 Urban
101 Grumpy
102 Cowhide
103 Cowhide
104 Angry Pirate
105 Clayton
106 Urban
107 Cowhide
108 Cowhide
109 Montezuma
110 Moose
111 Donkey
112 Billy Chapel
15
113 Billy Chapel
114 Urban
115 Moose
116 Cowhide
117 Cowhide
118 Keepin
119 Urban
120 Clayon
121 Prestige
122 Prestige
123 Angry Pirate
124 Clayton
125 Keepin
126 Moose
16
127 Ring
128 Anal
129 Anal
130 Clayton
131 Prestige
132 Angry Pirate
133 Clayton
134 One Nut
135 Angry Pirate
136 Prestige
137 Urban
138 Moose
139 Donkey
140 Billy Chapel
17
141 Billy Chapel
142 Keepin
143 Moose
144 Montezuma
145 Keepin
146 Angry Pirate
147 Urban
148 One Nut
149 Angry Pirate
150 Prestige
151 Keepin
152 Anal
153 Anal
154 Clayton
18
155 Ring
156 Anal
157 Anal
158 Keepin
159 Prestige
160 Angry Pirate
161 Angry Pirate
162 Montezuma
163 Angry Pirate
164 Donkey
165 Montezuma
166 Moose
167 Donkey
168 Billy Chapel
19
169 Billy Chapel
170 Donkey
171 Anal
172 Keepin
173 Anal
174 Moose
175 Urban
176 Donkey
177 Angry Pirate
178 Anal
179 Keepin
180 Keepin
181 Grumpy
182 Anal
20
183 Angry Pirate
184 One Nut
185 Urban
186 Keepin
187 Prestige
188 Moose
189 Donkey
190 Urban
191 One Nut
192 Moose
193 Montezuma
194 Moose
195 One Nut
196 Billy Chapel
21
197 Billy Chapel
198 Donkey
199 Anal
200 Montezuma
201 Montezuma
202 Urban
203 Urban
204 Ring
205 One Nut
206 Prestige
207 Keepin
208 Anal
209 Keepin
210 Ring
22
211 Ring
212 One Nut
213 Anal
214 Keepin
215 Prestige
216 One Nut
217 Montezuma
218 Urban
219 Urban
220 Montezuma
221 Montezuma
222 One Nut
223 Donkey
224 Billy Chapel
23
225 Billy Chapel
226 Donkey
227 Urban
228 Montezuma
229 Prestige
230 One Nut
231 Donkey
232 Montezuma
233 Angry Pirate
234 Prestige
235 Keepin
236 Anal
237 Keepin
238 Ring
24
239 Ring
240 One Nut
241 Anal
242 Keepin
243 Prestige
244 Ring
245 Montezuma
246 Anal
247 One Nut
248 Prestige
249 Billy Chapel
250 Ring
251 Donkey
252 Billy Chapel

2012 Draft Lottery

All-Time Standings

2012 Keeper Preview

Prestige Worldwide - Lars
Definite – 1B AGonzalez BOS, 3B ELongoria TB, OF CGranderson NYY, SP DPrice TB,
Considerations – SS ACabrera CLE, OF AJones BAL, SP MBumgarner SF, SP JPapelbon PHI, C VMartinez DET
Stretch –OF DStubbs CIN, RP ABailey BOS, SP DHudson ARI

Tough break on VMart as he gave Lars tremendous value at a shallow position. Lars would be quite happy if his top producers put up the same numbers they did in 2011, as AGon, Longo, Grandy, Assdribble, and Price were all relatively healthy (though Longoria missed some time) and very productive. Hard to expect Granderson to do the same, but its not out of the question and Lars has a strong base with which to build a contender. Something short of truly keeper-worthy based on last years numbers, Jones and Bumgarner could have 2012s that will make Lars regret not keeping them if he goes a different route. The “stretches” are all good, but in a redraft league you wouldn’t take any of them in the first six rounds, so not terribly troubling to put them back in the pool.

Cowhide Joyride – Dave
Definite – 1B PFielder DET, SP TLincecum SF, 3B RZimmerman WAS, C BPosey SF, 2B RWeeks MIL, SS EAndrus TEX
Considerations – None
Stretch – OF LMorrison FLA

Really, Dave did a fine job setting up his 2012 squad in the weeks leading up the trade deadline and has plenty of picks to go with a fine group of keepers, which includes a complete infield made up of top-five guys at each position. Early reports on Posey are positive; if he and Andrus take the next step, this could make Dave a contender. The good group of hitters cover all five categories, but there has to be some concern about injuries with Zimm and Weeks perpetually injured and Posey recovering from a ripped up knee. It’s always nice to have that ace on top in Lincecum. Really nothing left to trade off as the roster was picked pretty clean in August 2011, though Morrison has the pedigree to have a good year. Dave can just sit back, read up on outfielders, and prepare for what will be a fun fifth and eighth round, in which he has four picks each.

Anal Hersheiser – Andy
Definite – SP JVerlander DET, SP DHaren LAA, 1B PKonerko CHW,
Considerations – 1B RHoward PHI, SP SStrasburg WAS, C AAvila DET, 3B MReynolds, OF MBourn ATL, OF MMorse WAS, SS JRollins, RP MRivera NYY
Stretch – RP BWilson SF, SP NFeliz TEX

Unfortunately for Andy, he’s got a lot of depth as far as keepers go but not a lot of top-tier talent (though, that is to be expected for a team coming off a successful expansion year). It had to hurt to see Howard rip his Achilles tendon square off the bone for the last out of the NLCS. It sounds like he could be back early in the season, but he’s a big guy who will have not had a fully functional leg for a significant portion of the offseason and there’s no DH in the NL. Its unclear how that will affect his value in 2012. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of questions marks here – Strasburg and Mo’s health, the effect of aging on Konerko and Rollins, the ability of Avila and Morse to replicate 2011, and the limits of Bourn and Reynolds in two of the five categories. He’d have a great team if he could keep everyone, but there’s a bunch of question marks that make it difficult to peg down exactly who is keeper material here.

THE GRUMPY MUNCHKINS – Brandon
Definite – 1B APujols LAA, SS JReyes MIA, 3B MCabrera DET, OF AMcCutchen PIT
Considerations – OF JHeyward ATL, OF BHarper WAS
Stretch – SP FLiriano MIN

As if Casten needed help setting up a kickass team for 2012, the Tigers sign Fielder and make the improbable move of Miggy to third—creating a monster at a pretty weak position, who will qualify there for at least the next two seasons even if the plan is scrapped partway through the season. Like Dave, it’s pretty clear who Casten’s keepers will be. The top four should provide a strong base for what is always a very powerful Munchkin offense. The middle two youngsters are more question marks as Harper could start in AAA and Heyward was really awful in 2011. Liriano is in a contract year and certainly has talent, but Casten seems resigned to keeper Harper whatever his status is. Normally, I would mock anybody even thinking of keeping a player who could possibly start the season in AAA, but this is a unique circumstance in that Casten will do all his drafting in the first eight rounds of the 2012 draft, including FIVE in the second round. He’ll have the talent to waste a spot and if any minor leaguer has ever been worth it, its Harper. His team will be an interesting case study in that he sacrificed the 2011 season very early on to put him in the best position to excel in 2012. If he doesn’t, that will be quite a disappointment. A hallmark of Casten’s teams have been a great offense, lots of pitchers (some good, many middling) and no closers. It will be interesting to see if his strategy changes. One thing is for certain – he’s going to be loaded.

Montezuma’s Revenge – Adam
Definite – 2B IKinsler TEX, SP CHamels PHI, C CSantana CLE, OF JUpton ARZ
Considerations – SP IKennedy ARZ, 1B EHosmer KC, RP CKimbrel ATL, SP JBeckett BOS, SP MMoore, TB, 3B ARamirez MIL, SS JHardy BAL
Stretch – OF CRasmus TOR, OF CBeltran STL

With only Upton remaining from the 2011 keeper group that featured such disappointments as ADunn, BPosey, DJeter, and JJohnson, this group is pretty good considering the talent was also thinned by in-season trades. As painful as it was to see ALind rip it up after trading him to One Nut for Santana, Lind ended up being mediocre and is not a keeper option now that his OF eligibility is lost. Santana meanwhile may turn into a beast especially for an OBP league. This group would be better if Kennedy had a history of productivity like 2011 and Hosmer wasn’t 22 and likely to have some ups and downs. Kimbrel, Beckett, ARam, Moore and Hardy are all guys that could help other teams as keepers, so there may be a trade here before the draft starts. Rasmus and Beltran could have great 2012s as both are in ideal situations for production, but are something short of keepers.

The Angry Pirates – Kyle
Definite – OF MStanton MIA, OF MHolliday STL, SS SCastro CHC
Considerations – 1B FFreeman ATL, SP JJohnson MIA
Stretch – OF MTrout LAA

Kyle’s got a big chip with Stanton, while Holliday and Castro are definitely solid guys. Freeman has a high ceiling and ended the season well, while Johnson may have actually been healthy late last season and the team just held off to make sure he was good for their push in 2012. But there’s not much else. Sure, Trout is a blue chip talent, but he’s going to have to have a monster spring for the Angels to keep him on the roster and would need to compete with the Morales, Trumbo, Pujols, Wells, Abreu, Bourjas, Hunter clusterfuck at five positions. The teams also signed Langerhans, indicating they’d rather have Trout in AAA then a fourth outfielder. Still, he’s the only other one I’d keep from this bunch. BBelt, GBeckham and Delmon have potential and Walker and Arencibia are serviceable but would you draft any of them in the sixth round of a standard draft? No way. This makes Kyle a strong candidate to make a trade before the draft. However, he’s only got one draft pick in the first four rounds at this point. Kyle may be the most challenged owner going into the season. A Stanton blockbuster could add picks and keeper depth, but he might regret that for a long time.
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Billy Chapel – Troy
Definite – OF HPence PHI, 3B ABeltre TEX, OF SVictorino PHI
Considerations – OF CHart MIL, 1B KMorales LAA
Stretch – 3B BLawrie TOR, SP JJurrjens ATL, SP CBuchholz BOS, SP JZimmerman WSH, RP RMadson CIN, 2B/1B/OF HKendrick LAA

Troy doesn’t have huge pieces, but there’s some nice guys here. As maligned as the trade for Weaver was, Beltre finished the season incredibly (82/32/105 in 487abs) and Morales is reportedly looking great, though tough to tell until spring training begins. Acquired in the Kinsler deal, Lawrie is the big question mark here as he was excellent at the end of the season but it was a small sample and I’d say his value is something short of the sixth round. Hard to say who will have the best season of the starters he has. Known for keeping closers, Madson is definitely a possibility here as he didn’t get the big contract he was looking for, opting for a one year deal in Cincinnati. I’d say he probably motivated to have a good season on what could be a very good team. Kendrick would be more valuable in a AVG league, but his value is enhanced by his position eligibility.

Moose is Loose – Brian
Definite – SS TTulowitzki COL, SP ZGrienke MIL, C BMcCann ATL, 2B DUggla
Consideratins – 2B/3B MYoung TEX, OF BUpton TB
Stretch – 1B ADunn CHW

Nice talent at the top here, with possibly the most valuable player in fantasy. McCann and Uggla have their flaws, but are still top guys at shallow positions. Grienke could have a very big season with a healthy year. Young is getting old and Upton is incredibly inconsistent, but Young should maintain his infield eligibility and Upton is heading into a contract year and just seems like a guy who’d focus just to get the money. Dunn’s collapse was perplexing and certainly shouldn’t be a keeper, but hard to imagine he would be that bad again; he has the potential to return to being an annual keeper as he is only 31. He also could regain OF eligibility at some point.

Ring of Fire – Dagan
Definite – 1B JVotto CIN, OF MKemp LAD, OF JBruce CIN
Considerations – 2B BZobrist TB, 3B KYoukilis BOS, SP UJimenez, UTIL DOrtiz BOS, SP RRomero TOR, SP JHellickson TB, C JMauer MIN
Stretch – SP BBeachy

Lead by Votto and Kemp, Dagan will no doubt be in the mix once again this season. But his keepers are less clear than in years past due to Youk’s injury issues, Ubaldo’s regression, Ortiz’s age and Mauer’s health. Zobrist will probably be kept due to position flexibility and all around solid production, while Romero had a great 2011 and Dagan would probably prefer him over Ubaldo given that he’s improved year after year in MLB’s toughest division. Hellboy was good, but didn’t show the K numbers you’d like from a keeper pitcher, while Beachy showed great K potential but doesn’t quite have the pedigree to give you confidence he’d continue this trend. Bruce was stolen at the end of 2011 and this could be the season he becomes the beast many expected. Mauer will be one of the most interesting players in fantasy this season. He could go anywhere in the draft, providing he’s sent back to the pool.

Colon No Like Salad – Russ
Definite – 2B RCano NYY, OF CGonzalez COL, OF JHamilton TX, SP CKershaw LAD, SP FHernandez SEA
Considerations – SP AWainwright STL, C MWeiters
Stretch – 2B JKipnis CLE, SS ARamirex CHW

Since Russ kept Wainwright on his roster for the entire 2011 season, it’s pretty clear that’s the route he will go and he has the makings for another superior pitching staff in 2012. Keeping three starters may be a bit much, but with the depth at pitching it actually may make it more important to have top producers. His threesome could easily total 100 QS and 700 ks with sub 3.00era/1.00whips. He’s also got a great start to his offense, especially with Hamilton entering a contract year. Someone might take on Weiters, but he’s more likely to be drafted in the first or second. Kipnis showed some ability and Alexei has been kept before due to his consistency, but both will be back in the pool for 2012—though its possible this is the last time Kipnis is available for the draft for quite a while.

One Nut Wonders – Jason
Definite – SS/3B HRamirez MIA, SP JWeaver LAA, OF RBraun MIL
Considerations – SP JShields TB, 2B CUtley PHI, 2B BPhillips CIN, OF AGordon KC, SP MLatos CIN, C MMontero ARZ
Stretch – OF BGardner NYY, OF AEthier LAD, SP BMorrow TOR, SP GGonzalez WSH, RP JSoria KC, RP JValverde DET, OF CQuentin SD

Jason is another one with lots of depth, but lacking a lot of top of the line guys especially with Braun likely out for a third of the season. The considerations all have their flaws as Shields and Gordon don’t have track records to support confidence that 2011 production will be repeated, Utley wasn’t the same after his injury, Phillips is solid but not great in any category, Latos was up and down and is hurt by the offseason trade to the CIN bandbox, while Montero is great value for a catcher but would you draft him in the sixth? The stretches all have potential to have huge 2012s, but I don’t think any of them warrant keeper status. Gordon could reach great heights this season and has the potential to reach the upper tier, or he could regress back to his old middling production.

Urban Achiever – Dan
Definite – SP CSabathia NYY, OF DJennings TB
Considerations – OF SChoo CLE, OF CYoung ARZ, C JMontero SEA
Stretch – 1B JMorneau MIN, 1B GSanchez MIA, 3B PAlvarez PIT, OF CLee HOU, 2B KJohnson TOR, 1B ARizzo CHC

The Achievers didn’t achieve much last season as Dan failed to capitalize on the opportunity to gain picks and improve keepers significantly after falling out of the race early. He’d be in much better shape had he dealt for some of the younger guys that weren’t having great 2011 seasons or the injured guys who were out for the year. But Jennings was a quality acquisition and played himself into keeper status. Montero will be an interesting one to watch. In SEA he’s in a tough ballpark, but will stay at C and get more abs then he would in NYY. Young and Shoo could easily prove keeper worthy but both have their shortcomings. Morneau is the wild card here and will be one to monitor during spring training. Alvarez and Rizzo are high upside young guys but haven’t proven reliable in the bigs yet, while Lee and Johnson are better than their 2011 seasons. Sanchez was awful down the stretch but is in a better lineup now.

Keepin it Real – Pierce
Definite – 2B DPedroia BOS, 3B DWright NYM, OF JEllsbury BOS, SP CLee PHI, SP JLester BOS
Considerations – SP MCain SF, 3B ARodriguez NYY, 3B PSandoval SF, SP ASanchez MIA, SP THanson ATL, SP MPineda NYY, SP CWilson LAA, SP MGarza CHC, OF ISuzuki SEA, OF JWerth WSH
Stretch – RP JWalden LAA, OF NMarkakis BAL

Last year’s champ has a strong base with which to build a team that could repeat as well as some parts to potentially trade for picks. Not hard to see how he won last year by looking at his possible keepers as his 2011 draft was exemplary. There’s some very difficult decision to be made here. He and Kyle might want to talk as they could definitely find a deal around Stanton that would make a lot of sense for both. Cain is certainly keeper worthy, but its awfully hard to pass up on ARod’s potential. While the fantasy community will likely pump up Pineda because of his win potential in NYY, for our purposes he was much better suited for SEA. Hanson is tough to peg down because of his injury but would normally be a definite keeper. Lots of options here for Pierce to potentially regain the picks he lost in the deadline deals.

Donkey Punchers – Chris
Definite – 3B JBautista TOR, SP RHalladay PHI, 1B MTeixeira NYY
Considerations – SP YGallardo MIL, C MNapoli TEX, OF CCrawford BOS, OF NCruz TEX, SP CCarpenter STL, RP HBell MIA, 1B/OF LBerkman STL
Stretch – SS DJeter NYY, 2B DAckley SEA, SP SMarcum MIL

Chris also has some parts that would improve the keepers of some other teams and still leave him with an excellent six. If Cruz was reliable, he’d be a definite, while you have to question Crawford’s bad 2011 and Berkman’s excellent 211. Gallardo would be tough not to keep, while Napoli may be the best fantasy catcher in the game. Carp is getting a bit long in the tooth and Bell is a reliever, while Jeter plays short (he ultimately had a pretty decent 2011), Ackley had a good season but lacks excellent potential in any one category, and Marcum was up and down. Still, plenty to like and Chris will definitely have a high-end starting six to begin 2012 with Bautista, Halladay and Tex leading the way.