Week 13 Real Rankings

NOTES

We have a new #1 and, frankly, it’s about time.  Donkey has been the best team in the league for at least a month and it hasn't been close really, but it’s taken a while for that to be reflected in the Overall Real Ranking.  It is very clear when you look at the Real Rankings  average over the past month though:

1	Donkey Punchers	4.15
2	Livin' on a Correa	5.63
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.63
4	Ring of Fire	6.10
5	The Angry Pirates	6.78
6	Thor's Hammered	6.85
7	Sexual Napalm	6.95
8	Cowhide Joyride	7.00
9	Keep Off Groin	7.40
10	Anal Hershiser	7.93
11	Stroman my Cobb Odor	8.30
12	Moose is Loose!	8.55
13	Brokeback Moundmen	8.98
14	One Nut Wonders	9.10

Pitching has been Shannon’s forte (he’s got a two point lead over second place in the last four), but he’s been no slouch in hitting (second place over the last four). Even just anecdotally looking at the rosters and it’s pretty evident: The Donkey Punchers are the team to beat.

However, the Actual Standings – the ones that really matter in the end – say a few different things. Namely that Kyle and the Angry Pirates has gotten pretty gosh darn cotton-picking lucky, Dave and the Joyride are outperforming their actual production, and Dagan, Shomphe and myself are getting a little screwed. But it’s fluid and we’re approaching the all important two-thirds mark.  After this week, there’s 7 more to go:  three weeks until open trading, two weeks of open trading, and two weeks of no trading before the playoffs.  What happens in the third trimester dictates not only how this season will go, but often next season (see Shannon).

Soooo… who exactly is actually trading? Judging by performance over the last four weeks, the right four teams who have declared to be selling are the ones who should be selling, but it’s still trudging along pretty slow. Stroman just made his first big deal, and Brokeback continues to acquire and deal more parts.  Moose and One Nut declared themselves open for business weeks ago, but Moose traded Alex Cobb and nothing else and Jason has been sitting tight and trying to convince everyone his team is full of keepers.   

Part of the problem is it has been so difficult to get reliable pitching. Teams understandably want top dollar for guys like Hamels, Tanaka, Verlander, and Price, who they either committed high picks to or kept outright --- however, those four also have an average overall ranking of 513th!  Then there’s a whole lot of guys in the middle whose name (Gray, Estrada, Ryu, Hammel, Roark, Liriano, Moore, Wheeler) looks a lot better than their production.  Below are the Yahoo rankings of the SPs available for trade from teams who are selling:

  

The problem is it creates no rush to trade them and no rush to acquire them. It often makes more sense to trade or pick up a flier for cheap and not have to pay for the name value.  This is where deeper analysis can pay off big.  I can’t tell if the conversations are not being had or if they’re just not going anywhere, but one side will budge eventually. 

One thing changing the fantasy landscape is young kids. Just think that the following guys – all top 100 players over the past 30 days – were afterthoughts at this point last year and could’ve been easily acquired or picked up for nothing:  Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Michael Taylor, Jonathan Schoop, Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, Keon Broxton, Trey Mancini, Domingo Santana, Jake Faria, Zack Godley.  Meanwhile, guys like Joey Gallo, Jose Berrios, Luis Severino, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Justin Bour, Bradley Zimmer were either late draft picks or FA pickups and could very well turn into keepers. Often, the best teams are the ones who play Rookie Roulette the best.

I’ll get to trade reviews this week hopefully.

Thank you to Mr. Watson for your donation. Still need money from Brian, Jeff, Justin, Dan ($115), Dave, Gibby, Shomphe, Kyle ($130), and Dagan.