7/15
Angry
receives:
OF
Avisail Garcia CWS – OF
Round
17
Stroman
receives:
Round
16
What
can you say about this? Garcia is remarkably on pace for a 80/23/98/7/.355 season.
That’s very solid across-the-board production who is a well worth a spot as at
least an OF3. But I don’t believe it’s real and clearly neither do Kyle or
Jeff. Certainly worth a flier in case he can fake it a full season though, especially
when the give up should effectively be about 15-20 draft spots.
-------
7/10
Stroman
receives:
Round
12
LOC
receives:
Mike
Leake StL - P
Round
18 (traded from Donkey Punchers)
Another
example of a trade saying a lot about the current market for pitching. Three days earlier, Leake was included as a
throw-in in the Frazier/Sanchez deal and now Jeff turned the already gaudy 13-round
return into a 19-round gain by swapping Leake for six. Leake was one of the
most stable pitchers of the first half, posting his typical 6/2 K/BB per 9 with
solid rates. For our purposes, the
biggest value is the QSs. At 12, he is tied for 16th in the league
and is indicative of the stabilizing force he can be in a rotation. Six rounds is probably high since there are
RPs with more Ks this season and Leake has been dropped outright at some point in
just about every season in recent memory, but the options available to teams
looking for SPs are limited and Jeff took full advantage of that.
------
7/9
Moose
receives:
Jharel
Cotton Oak - P DL
Javier
Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS
Max
Kepler Min - OF
Round
11
Round
14
Angry receives:
Marwin
González Hou - 1B,2B,3B,SS,OF
Carlos
Gómez Tex - OF
Mike
Fiers Hou - P
Round
21
Round
23
While I’ve
got nothing against the player Kyle acquired, 21 rounds seems like an awful
lot. Marwin has been a supersub all season and the near-.400 OBP has been
remarkable, while 17 HR and 55 RBI in inconsistent playing time has been truly
one of the more out-of-nowhere developments of recent memory. The biggest
surprise has been that he has nearly doubled his career walk rate (5.5% vs.
10.6%) and his ISO is nearly 120 points higher (.269 vs. .151)! The BABIP is
really high at .343, suggesting some regression is likely – especially when you
consider his hard hit rate is actually lower than it has been the past two
seasons. All that means is, if he does start to decline, the Astros have more
than a few options to replace a replacement player and he could become a maddening
player to own. Guys without any real pedigree don’t tend to suddenly become stars
at the age of 28.
I like
a lot of what CarGo2 is doing when healthy this season. He’s bumped up his walk
rate well above his historic levels and the current .330 level would qualify as
one of his best seasons in this category. Injuries continue to be an issue for
the 31-year-old but the power/speed combo makes for a very good OF3-4 if he can
keep the walk rate steady. Fiers has also had a bit of a resurgence since he
ditched his cutter and focused on changing speeds more effectively. He too fits
in well as a back of the rotation type, with potential to strikeout 10 in a
game on occasion.
That
all said, the grouping is fraught with questions and uncertainty, making the
21-round price tag about 7-9 rounds too much in the current hitting environment.
Based on their production this season, there’s no doubt they warrant an average
of 7 rounds each, but the sketchy recent track records teamed with the options available
on the open market – along with the fact that the 11th is the
highest round available for trade now -- makes this a clear overpay in my
opinion.
-----
7/8
Montezumas
receives:
Justin
Bour Mia - 1B
Thor’s
receives:
Brandon
McCarthy LAD - P
This
trade says so much about how the juiced ball has impacted the fantasy world. In
most seasons, a player on pace for 80/40/120/0/.370 would be essentially unacquirable
– much less get swapped for what would normally represent a decent SP5-6. But
this is the new reality. With sluggers all over his lineup and a few holes in
the pitching staff, Shomphe sent this counteroffer, which I nearly declined
outright, decided to wait, and hemmed and hawed about for a day or so before
accepting. I was in search of OBP help and Bour has always been a very steady
walk-taker. The only issue in the past was playing time, and he’s finally been
given the opportunity to hit lefties too. The results would have been one of
the most compelling fantasy developments of the first half, but instead it gets
lost in a season that has seen Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak,
Logan Morrison, Cody Bellinger, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Ryan Zimmerman
turn into stars. Meanhile, guys like
Marwin Gonzalez, Joey Gallo, Josh Bell, Ryon Healy, Trey Mancini, Matt Adams,
Mitch Moreland, Yuli Gurriel, Lucas Duda, Tommy Joseph, and Matt Davidson have
provided enough production to make former mainstays like Albert Pujols, Carlos
Santana, Victor Martinez, and Todd Frazier effectively valueless castoffs. Therefore,
it is perhaps not surprising given the cause-effect relationship that SPs with
a 3.20/1.20 with 60 QS% and 7-8 k/9 have become increasingly more rare. McCarthy has never been a high end guy, but
he can more than hold his own and act as a rate-stabilizing force when healthy.
If he stays healthy, Shomphe may very well get the better end of the deal even
if Bour achieves his projected totals.
-----
7/8
Stroman
receives:
Jason
Heyward ChC - OF
Mike
Leake StL - P
Round
12
Round
13
Cowhide
receives:
Todd
Frazier CWS - 1B,3B
Anibal
Sanchez Det - P
Round
19
Round
19 (traded from Thor's Hammered)
Really
didn’t like this deal for Dave, namely because the relative equal value of
Anibal vs. Leake, makes this 13 rounds for Frazier, which is way too much
considering the hitting options available for trade and on the wire. One nice
thing about Frazier is he is walking at an incredible rate compared to past
seasons. He’s at a tremendous 14.3 BB% vs. 8.5% for his career. With his
perpetually dismal batting average, it still only brings his OBP to .320 or so
however. The .214 BABIP suggests he’s been
pretty unlucky. Meanwhile, his ISO is right in line with his previous two
seasons, when he bopped a combined 75 HR. There’s enough to like about Frazier’s
recent production the past couple seasons to think he deserves much more than
throw-in treatment in a trade, but the data also suggests he could be due for
quite a resurgence. The possibility of
joining a contending team with a better lineup also presents potential outperformance
possibilities. I wouldn’t be shocked if
he ended up with a line of 80/35/90/10/.330, which is very good for a UTIL
slot.
That
aside, Dave just flat out paid too much at this point in time. The open market
commands much less for power and a marginal OBP as recent trades have shown an
equivalent hitter can be acquired for 5-6 rounds. Leake also deserved more than
throw-in treatment despite his recent struggles – as evidenced by the six
rounds Jeff got from Chad for him. And Anibal’s recent performance is
promising, but not something I’d pay for. I was wrong about Cobb, so maybe Dave
sees something I don’t, but I do have a pretty good read for the market and to
essentially trade 18 rounds for Frazier is a clear overpay.
-----
7/5
Anal
receives:
Carlos
Rodón CWS - P
Kenta
Maeda LAD - P
Kyle
Hendricks ChC - P DL
Eduardo
Rodríguez Bos - P DL
Round
18
Round
20
Round
21
Round
22
Stroman
receives:
Avisaíl
García CWS - OF
Todd
Frazier CWS - 1B,3B
Round
11
Round
15
Round
16
Round
17
There’s
a lot going on here, but the breakdown is Jeff got 22 rounds and two pretty
decent hitters (who later got traded for a combined 10-12 rounds) and Justin
got four SPs with varying levels of risk/reward and health. There are multiple
factors to consider, but when it comes down to it, Jeff may have actually lost
out on some potential value, even if you factor in the subsequent trades of
Frazier (with Anibal for 13 rounds) and Garcia (1 round).
All of
the pitchers were widely considered top 40 guys before the season (Rodon was
iffy due to health). ERod has performed well when healthy, Hendricks was
amazing in 2016, Rodon has more potential than all of them, and Maeda has been
solid despite being tossed around between the DL, the bullpen, and the starting
position. Hendricks and ERod only just returned to the mound, and Rodon made
his first start of the season at the end of June. In an up and down year, Maeda
has pitched well lately. When healthy, you’d expect all four to command at
least 10 rounds each in the current environment (roughly the equivalent to what
Manaea and others have cost) – and significantly more if they were performing
well. In total, after dealing Garcia and Frazier in subsequent deals
(subtracting Anibal’s value), he pulled in about 32 rounds for the four
pitchers, so an average of 8 each.
The
question – which was the same one posed to Watson after the Lester/CMart deal –
is was their missed opportunity cost? By trading these piece in parts and/or
waiting for them to stabilize off injury, Jeff very well could’ve received 50+
rounds total. However, if he waited and Hendricks didn’t recover his old form, Rodon
continued to struggle with command, ERod’s knee kept buckling and Maeda got
sent to the bullpen – all real possibilities --- he could’ve received
significantly less. With the open trading period less than a month away at this
point, I think it could’ve behooved Jeff to wait. That said, it’s hard to blame
people for being risk-averse. It’s not a small risk for Justin either, but one
worth taking since these were mostly middle-round picks, which can be easily
replaced. The am a little surprised he didn’t find a worse piece than Frazier
to send back, but perhaps that was part of negotiations.
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