7/1
Brokeback
receives:
Victor
Martinez Det - 1B
Round
13
Ring
receives
Jedd
Gyorko StL - 1B,2B,3B,SS
Round
15 (traded from Montezuma's Revenge)
This
could go down as a potentially huge addition to a playoff team, even though it
seems rather insignificant and the compensation was hardly mentionable. With eligibility at every infield position
and a pace of 65/25/87/9/.357, that is quiet, across-the-board contributions
from what has become the Cardinals best hitter. He’s actually got even more pop
in his bat than what he’s shown. Perhaps that is indicative of a change in a
approach that has brought his batting average up from .246 career to .294 this season,
while walking at a very good rate (9.4%).
However, it also may be reflective of his elevated BABIP, which, at
.335, is quite a bit higher than his .279 career. Teamed with soft and hard contact rates that
are consistent with career averages, this means there’s likely an element of
luck to this production. Another possible negative is the STL lineup, which is
a shadow of its former self. Still, at two rounds, the production so far
warrants a lot more compensation and other teams may regret being asleep at the
wheel on this one if the Gyorko Store ends up emerging in his age 28 season.
-----
7/1
Stroman
receives:
Josh
Bell Pit - 1B,OF
Round
18
Donkey
receives:
Brandon
Belt SF - 1B,OF
Round
24
Oops…
apparently. I read this incorrectly when I was analyzing (superimposed the
picks to the other team). Adjusted to make actual sense:
Along
with similar names and profiles, Belt and Bell have extremely similar
production so far this season, with both on pace for around 80/28/80/5. They also share the same position
eligibility, which is key since the onslaught of productive 1B-onlys has made
their profile barely rosterable without the OF eligibility. But with the
eligibility, both make very good UTIL players. But what Shannon is paying for
is that OBP, and Belt is one of the best.
The
question as to whether that OBP is worth trading six rounds for centers on
whether the replacement player was that much worse of an option. One also has to consider whether the surprising
power profile of a veteran that has never hit 20 HR in a season before surpasses
the surprising power profile of a former prospect who was never expected to hit
this many HR in a season. Both players are very capable in the onbase skills
department. Bell’s 10.8 BB% is excellent for a 24 year-old, while Belt’s 14.1%
is excellent for any age and is 13th in the league currently. While
Belt’s .352 is good, it’s only 64th best in the league and with that
walk rate, you’d expect more like the .394. This number should actually be quite
a bit better and I expect it will be. Belt’s walk rate has climbed from 7.7% in
2014 to 10.1% and 15.9% the past two season, respectively, while his batting
average shot up from .243 in 2014 to .280 and .275. Right now, his batting average is .244 and his
BABIP is about 50 points off his career average. There’s a lot of indicators that suggest Belt’s
OBP should settle in the .370-.380 area before the season is over. That more
than makes up for six rounds at the backend of the draft. It’s hard to tell if
the power is here to stay, but he was expected to have 25-HR power as a
prospect, so this very well could be the new norm.
In
terms of the fairness of this deal, however, you have to consider Bell’s
profile as a potentially better player than Belt in the near future. The 10.8
BB%, .253 BABIP, and minor league batting averages suggest he could easily
outperform the fine production thus far this season. At five years younger and with
advanced on-base skills, Bell is a potential keeper if he maintains OF
eligibility. He’d be a fringy one based on current production, but if makes
further improvements it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine him developing into a
top-84 type. Most likely he loses OF eligibility next year and has to compete for
positioning among a growing list of 1B-only sluggers, but there’s hope for much
more.
Anyhow,
now that I actually am looking at it correctly, the trade makes sense for
Shannon as Belt is very good bet to improve his already very good OBP and
contribute across the board. That’s good value for six rounds. However, Bell
has surprised and if he continues to adjust as big league pitchers adjust to
him, Jeff could get much more out of this deal than a handful of rounds.
-----
6/30
Brokeback
receives:
Homer
Bailey Cin - P
Round
13
Round
15
Montezumas
receives:
Dinelson
Lamet SD - P
Round
14 (traded from Anal Hershiser)
Round
16
Lamet
is easy to fall in love with, but difficult to formally commit to. His blowout
are terrible and his good outings are remarkable. You can try to play him only
at home or against bad hitting teams, but the truth is you just don’t know when
he’s going to have it and when he is not. The underlying numbers show a remarkable
ability to miss bats and confuse hitters (12.1 K/9, 13.5 SwStr%) and quite a
bit of bad luck (5.93 era vs. 4.01 xFIP).
However, his splits are ridiculous (.299/.365/.682 and 9.00 ERA vs. L,
.135/.220/.297 2.70 ERA vs. R) and will be impossible to look past if they don’t
start to improve. In the meantime, as
intriguing of a talent as he is, it’s almost more pain than he’s worth to start
him and cross your fingers. That said, the two round giveup doesn’t represent
much risk for the potential reward of his emergence. And for Watson, it’s just
keeping the machine going.
-----
6/27
Brokeback
receives:
Josh
Tomlin Cle - P
Round
12
Angry
receives:
Dylan
Bundy Bal - P
Round
16 (traded from Sexual Napalm)
Though
I previously noted Bundy’s downturn, I seriously looked into make a similar
offer to Watson. The talent is just too great to ignore. However, I couldn’t
get passed the underlying data, the health, and the lack of durability. Bundy
has only made two starts since the trade went through and they weren’t pretty –
11 ER in 9 IP. The Ks come in bunches, but the overall numbers there are
underwhelming at only 7 per 9. His ERA has climbed over 4 and his xFIP is over
5, even with a favorable BABIP. He’s one
of those guys that will probably be rostered until he’s injured or shutdown,
but is likely to cause more heartache than he’s worth. Nice job by Watson to
continue to churning through his roster with the FA additions. Since the
somewhat regrettable return on CMart and Lester, he’s been putting on a rebuilding
clinic while keeping his most valuable parts.
-----
6/22
Brokeback
receives:
Albert
Pujols LAA - 1B
Daniel
Norris Det - P DL
Round
13
KOG
receives:
José
Ureña Mia - P
Archie
Bradley Ari - P
Round
17
Urena
seems to be one of those guys who just manages to pitch around his flaws.
Despite a rather low ground ball rate, he’s managed to limit real blowouts most
of the season. There’s enough to like to keep him rostered when things are
going well – especially if you’ve been trying to manage the ups and downs of
life with Daniel Norris. But he’s not part of a rotation of a championship team
ultimately. The .255 BABIP and massive difference between his ERA and xFIP
(3.50 vs. 5.50 at the time), along with the spotty control (3.3 BB/9) and poor
HR rate (11.9% HR/FB) means much of this surface level stats are a mirage.
Bradley is a very good RP worth at least a couple rounds though, so not all is
lost. The investment wasn’t huge at four rounds, but it’s noteworthy that the
emergence of all the 1B power and four-category producers has turned the once
mighty Pujols waiver wire fodder.
-----
6/21
Brokeback
receives:
Dylan
Bundy Bal - P
Round
13
LOC
receives:
Seth
Lugo NYM - P
Round
16 (traded from Livin' on a Correa)
While
it appeared Bundy was the better SP on the surface, he’s been trending downward
all season and most peripherals show he’s been outperforming the talent he’s
displaying. So it’s hard to fault Chad for recognizing that and moving on.
However, as Watson eventually showed, there’s a market for SP with shiny names
and decent surface stats. He eventually dealt Bundy for four rounds, turning
his initial investment of a simple transaction for Lugo into a seven round
upgrade. While Lugo has been a pretty decent addition as a back of the rotation
type (4 for 7 in QS), it was a bit of a missed opportunity by not posting Bundy
or offering him around. The SP market is that crazy.
-----
6/20
Brokeback
receives
J.C.
Ramírez LAA - P
Round
14
Montezumas
receives:
Trevor
Rosenthal StL - P
Round
15
Ahh the
first of the trades where the hyperactive owners pay for their sins. Instead of
picking up a comparable RP, it made more sense to deal a pick for one given the
transaction limit. Rosenthal is good with the Ks, but rates can be difficult
and S+H sporadic. Probably worth a pick though and certainly worth it for
Watson to upgrade all picks when possible.
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