Week 16 Real Rankings

Week 15 Real Rankings

NOTES

There’s just no stopping the Donkey.  Chris Shannon has rode this surge to within half a game of first place in the Actual Standings and has a significant lead in the Real Rankings. Remarkably, the Punchers have had only one week since week 3 where their Real Ranking was above 7.0.  That’s incredible when you consider, unsurprisingly, the average ranking is 7.0.  Since Week 3, his Real Ranking is 4.96, almost a full point ahead of second place.

Speaking of second place, Dagan could be poised to make history once again – but not in a good way. There’s a weird alternate reality thing going on with Ring and the Angry Pirates, where both are seven spots ahead of where they should be according to the Real Ranking. In fact, the second best team according to Real Rankings and the most consistently good team according to volatility measures, is currently sitting one spot out of the playoffs.

Gibby shocked the H&T world last week with a Trade Block posting that showed he was ready to sell, despite sitting comfortably in sixth place.  With the 8^th + 9^th place teams 4.5 games behind and the next best team 9 games behind, Gibby should be considered the favorite at this point to have the #1 pick in the draft next season.

THE TWO-WEEK OPEN TRADING PERIOD BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY!!!! Just a reminder, every team can trade only two of their picks in rounds 7-10.  There is no limit to the number of these picks a team can receive. You may negotiate any trades ahead of time, but any trade involving these picks before midnight will be voided.  All trading will end of Aug 13^th at midnight.

There were 22 trades executed during this two-week period last year, including names like Starsburg, Price, Miggy, Cutch, Marte (x2), Dozier,  JUpton, Kershaw, Arenado, Donaldson, Archer, Cruz, Darvish, Hosmer, and Beltre.  This is one of the most exciting and critical points of the season for both buyers and sellers.  Shannon (Donkey) made five trades that put him in the position he’s in today. Meanwhile, Pierce (Keepin it Real) decided not to sell despite sitting in the middle of the standings, made a few trades, go into the playoffs and won it all. 

With that, there’s a lot of “potential keepers” who get discussed. Few things to keep in mind: Of the 84 keepers last year, 19 were SPs (23%). Of those, only 9 are currently in the top 100 overall players for the 2016 season, according to Yahoo (Scherzer, Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Darvish, Strasburg, CMart, Carrasco, Archer). 

Meanwhile, there were only a few actual keepers among prospects who were called up for the first time during the 2016 season:  Turner, Bregman, WContreras, Benintendi, GSanchez.  They’ve all held their own in 2017, but it’s important to be selective.  There are currently 380 players on rosters right now, only 22% will be kept. Do some research and make sure you’re not keeping 2015 or 2016 stats for 2018!

Just a reminder (ahem, Chad) that the transaction limit is 60 for the season. The trade deadline is 8/13, so that leaves three weeks where no trades can be made and, if you go past 60 transactions, no pickups can be made.  For the remainder of the season, here is the average pickups per week:  LOC 0.5, Revenge 1.5, Stroman 2.2, Thor 2.7, Brokeback 3.0, Moose 3.5 and everyone else is  safely around 5 per week.

Here’s your top 25 players over the last 30 days:

1	José Altuve Hou - 2B	Cowhide Joyride
2	George Springer Hou - OF	Anal Hershiser
3	Tommy Pham StL - OF	Stroman
4	Bryce Harper Was - OF	Thor's Hammered
5	Giancarlo Stanton Mia - OF	Cowhide Joyride
6	Mookie Betts Bos - OF	Sexual Napalm
7	Clayton Kershaw LAD - P	Brokeback
8	James Paxton Sea - P	The Angry Pirates
9	Corey Kluber Cle - P	Donkey Punchers
10	Chris Sale Bos - P	The Angry Pirates
11	Charlie Blackmon Col - OF	Stroman
12	Andrew McCutchen Pit - OF	Donkey Punchers
13	Travis Shaw Mil - 1B,3B	Stroman
14	Nolan Arenado Col - 3B	Anal Hershiser
15	Scooter Gennett Cin - 2B,3B,OF	One Nut Wonders
16	Anthony Rendon Was - 3B	Donkey Punchers
17	Khris Davis Oak - OF	Moose is Loose!
18	Rich Hill LAD - P	Donkey Punchers
19	Jonathan Schoop Bal - 2B	Ring of Fire
20	Sonny Gray Oak - P	One Nut Wonders
21	Carlos Correa Hou - SS	Livin' on a Correa
22	Aaron Nola Phi - P	Montezuma's
23	Aaron Judge NYY - OF	Moose is Loose!
24	Dustin Pedroia Bos - 2B	Moose is Loose!
25	Joey Votto Cin - 1B	Ring of Fire

Thanks to those who have paid.  Still need money from Dave, Brian, Kyle ($130), Shomphe, Dan ($115), and Justin!

Trade Reviews (7/5-7/15)

7/15

Angry receives:

OF Avisail Garcia CWS – OF

Round 17

Stroman receives:

Round 16

What can you say about this? Garcia is remarkably on pace for a 80/23/98/7/.355 season. That’s very solid across-the-board production who is a well worth a spot as at least an OF3. But I don’t believe it’s real and clearly neither do Kyle or Jeff. Certainly worth a flier in case he can fake it a full season though, especially when the give up should effectively be about 15-20 draft spots.

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7/10

Stroman receives:

Round 12

LOC receives:

Mike Leake StL - P

Round 18 (traded from Donkey Punchers)

           

Another example of a trade saying a lot about the current market for pitching.  Three days earlier, Leake was included as a throw-in in the Frazier/Sanchez deal and now Jeff turned the already gaudy 13-round return into a 19-round gain by swapping Leake for six. Leake was one of the most stable pitchers of the first half, posting his typical 6/2 K/BB per 9 with solid rates.  For our purposes, the biggest value is the QSs. At 12, he is tied for 16^th in the league and is indicative of the stabilizing force he can be in a rotation.  Six rounds is probably high since there are RPs with more Ks this season and Leake has been dropped outright at some point in just about every season in recent memory, but the options available to teams looking for SPs are limited and Jeff took full advantage of that.

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7/9

Moose receives:

Jharel Cotton Oak - P DL

Javier Báez ChC - 2B,3B,SS

Max Kepler Min - OF

Round 11

Round 14

Angry receives:

Marwin González Hou - 1B,2B,3B,SS,OF

Carlos Gómez Tex - OF

Mike Fiers Hou - P

Round 21

Round 23

While I’ve got nothing against the player Kyle acquired, 21 rounds seems like an awful lot. Marwin has been a supersub all season and the near-.400 OBP has been remarkable, while 17 HR and 55 RBI in inconsistent playing time has been truly one of the more out-of-nowhere developments of recent memory. The biggest surprise has been that he has nearly doubled his career walk rate (5.5% vs. 10.6%) and his ISO is nearly 120 points higher (.269 vs. .151)! The BABIP is really high at .343, suggesting some regression is likely – especially when you consider his hard hit rate is actually lower than it has been the past two seasons. All that means is, if he does start to decline, the Astros have more than a few options to replace a replacement player and he could become a maddening player to own. Guys without any real pedigree don’t tend to suddenly become stars at the age of 28.

I like a lot of what CarGo2 is doing when healthy this season. He’s bumped up his walk rate well above his historic levels and the current .330 level would qualify as one of his best seasons in this category. Injuries continue to be an issue for the 31-year-old but the power/speed combo makes for a very good OF3-4 if he can keep the walk rate steady. Fiers has also had a bit of a resurgence since he ditched his cutter and focused on changing speeds more effectively. He too fits in well as a back of the rotation type, with potential to strikeout 10 in a game on occasion.

That all said, the grouping is fraught with questions and uncertainty, making the 21-round price tag about 7-9 rounds too much in the current hitting environment. Based on their production this season, there’s no doubt they warrant an average of 7 rounds each, but the sketchy recent track records teamed with the options available on the open market – along with the fact that the 11^th is the highest round available for trade now -- makes this a clear overpay in my opinion.

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7/8

Montezumas receives:

Justin Bour Mia - 1B

Thor’s receives:

Brandon McCarthy LAD - P

This trade says so much about how the juiced ball has impacted the fantasy world. In most seasons, a player on pace for 80/40/120/0/.370 would be essentially unacquirable – much less get swapped for what would normally represent a decent SP5-6. But this is the new reality. With sluggers all over his lineup and a few holes in the pitching staff, Shomphe sent this counteroffer, which I nearly declined outright, decided to wait, and hemmed and hawed about for a day or so before accepting. I was in search of OBP help and Bour has always been a very steady walk-taker. The only issue in the past was playing time, and he’s finally been given the opportunity to hit lefties too. The results would have been one of the most compelling fantasy developments of the first half, but instead it gets lost in a season that has seen Mark Reynolds, Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison, Cody Bellinger, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Ryan Zimmerman turn into stars.  Meanhile, guys like Marwin Gonzalez, Joey Gallo, Josh Bell, Ryon Healy, Trey Mancini, Matt Adams, Mitch Moreland, Yuli Gurriel, Lucas Duda, Tommy Joseph, and Matt Davidson have provided enough production to make former mainstays like Albert Pujols, Carlos Santana, Victor Martinez, and Todd Frazier effectively valueless castoffs. Therefore, it is perhaps not surprising given the cause-effect relationship that SPs with a 3.20/1.20 with 60 QS% and 7-8 k/9 have become increasingly more rare.  McCarthy has never been a high end guy, but he can more than hold his own and act as a rate-stabilizing force when healthy. If he stays healthy, Shomphe may very well get the better end of the deal even if Bour achieves his projected totals.

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7/8

Stroman receives:

Jason Heyward ChC - OF

Mike Leake StL - P

Round 12

Round 13

Cowhide receives:

Todd Frazier CWS - 1B,3B

Anibal Sanchez Det - P

Round 19

Round 19 (traded from Thor's Hammered)

Really didn’t like this deal for Dave, namely because the relative equal value of Anibal vs. Leake, makes this 13 rounds for Frazier, which is way too much considering the hitting options available for trade and on the wire. One nice thing about Frazier is he is walking at an incredible rate compared to past seasons. He’s at a tremendous 14.3 BB% vs. 8.5% for his career. With his perpetually dismal batting average, it still only brings his OBP to .320 or so however.  The .214 BABIP suggests he’s been pretty unlucky. Meanwhile, his ISO is right in line with his previous two seasons, when he bopped a combined 75 HR. There’s enough to like about Frazier’s recent production the past couple seasons to think he deserves much more than throw-in treatment in a trade, but the data also suggests he could be due for quite a resurgence.  The possibility of joining a contending team with a better lineup also presents potential outperformance possibilities.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up with a line of 80/35/90/10/.330, which is very good for a UTIL slot.

That aside, Dave just flat out paid too much at this point in time. The open market commands much less for power and a marginal OBP as recent trades have shown an equivalent hitter can be acquired for 5-6 rounds. Leake also deserved more than throw-in treatment despite his recent struggles – as evidenced by the six rounds Jeff got from Chad for him. And Anibal’s recent performance is promising, but not something I’d pay for. I was wrong about Cobb, so maybe Dave sees something I don’t, but I do have a pretty good read for the market and to essentially trade 18 rounds for Frazier is a clear overpay.

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7/5

Anal receives:

Carlos Rodón CWS - P

Kenta Maeda LAD - P

Kyle Hendricks ChC - P DL

Eduardo Rodríguez Bos - P DL

Round 18

Round 20

Round 21

Round 22

Stroman receives:

Avisaíl García CWS - OF

Todd Frazier CWS - 1B,3B

Round 11

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

There’s a lot going on here, but the breakdown is Jeff got 22 rounds and two pretty decent hitters (who later got traded for a combined 10-12 rounds) and Justin got four SPs with varying levels of risk/reward and health. There are multiple factors to consider, but when it comes down to it, Jeff may have actually lost out on some potential value, even if you factor in the subsequent trades of Frazier (with Anibal for 13 rounds) and Garcia (1 round).

All of the pitchers were widely considered top 40 guys before the season (Rodon was iffy due to health). ERod has performed well when healthy, Hendricks was amazing in 2016, Rodon has more potential than all of them, and Maeda has been solid despite being tossed around between the DL, the bullpen, and the starting position. Hendricks and ERod only just returned to the mound, and Rodon made his first start of the season at the end of June. In an up and down year, Maeda has pitched well lately. When healthy, you’d expect all four to command at least 10 rounds each in the current environment (roughly the equivalent to what Manaea and others have cost) – and significantly more if they were performing well. In total, after dealing Garcia and Frazier in subsequent deals (subtracting Anibal’s value), he pulled in about 32 rounds for the four pitchers, so an average of 8 each.

The question – which was the same one posed to Watson after the Lester/CMart deal – is was their missed opportunity cost? By trading these piece in parts and/or waiting for them to stabilize off injury, Jeff very well could’ve received 50+ rounds total. However, if he waited and Hendricks didn’t recover his old form, Rodon continued to struggle with command, ERod’s knee kept buckling and Maeda got sent to the bullpen – all real possibilities --- he could’ve received significantly less. With the open trading period less than a month away at this point, I think it could’ve behooved Jeff to wait. That said, it’s hard to blame people for being risk-averse. It’s not a small risk for Justin either, but one worth taking since these were mostly middle-round picks, which can be easily replaced. The am a little surprised he didn’t find a worse piece than Frazier to send back, but perhaps that was part of negotiations. 

Trade Reviews (6/20-7/1)

7/1

Brokeback receives:

Victor Martinez Det - 1B

Round 13

Ring receives

Jedd Gyorko StL - 1B,2B,3B,SS

Round 15 (traded from Montezuma's Revenge)

This could go down as a potentially huge addition to a playoff team, even though it seems rather insignificant and the compensation was hardly mentionable.  With eligibility at every infield position and a pace of 65/25/87/9/.357, that is quiet, across-the-board contributions from what has become the Cardinals best hitter. He’s actually got even more pop in his bat than what he’s shown. Perhaps that is indicative of a change in a approach that has brought his batting average up from .246 career to .294 this season, while walking at a very good rate (9.4%).  However, it also may be reflective of his elevated BABIP, which, at .335, is quite a bit higher than his .279 career.  Teamed with soft and hard contact rates that are consistent with career averages, this means there’s likely an element of luck to this production. Another possible negative is the STL lineup, which is a shadow of its former self. Still, at two rounds, the production so far warrants a lot more compensation and other teams may regret being asleep at the wheel on this one if the Gyorko Store ends up emerging in his age 28 season.

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7/1

Stroman receives:

Josh Bell Pit - 1B,OF

Round 18

Donkey receives:

Brandon Belt SF - 1B,OF

Round 24

Oops… apparently. I read this incorrectly when I was analyzing (superimposed the picks to the other team). Adjusted to make actual sense:

Along with similar names and profiles, Belt and Bell have extremely similar production so far this season, with both on pace for around 80/28/80/5.  They also share the same position eligibility, which is key since the onslaught of productive 1B-onlys has made their profile barely rosterable without the OF eligibility. But with the eligibility, both make very good UTIL players. But what Shannon is paying for is that OBP, and Belt is one of the best.

The question as to whether that OBP is worth trading six rounds for centers on whether the replacement player was that much worse of an option.  One also has to consider whether the surprising power profile of a veteran that has never hit 20 HR in a season before surpasses the surprising power profile of a former prospect who was never expected to hit this many HR in a season. Both players are very capable in the onbase skills department. Bell’s 10.8 BB% is excellent for a 24 year-old, while Belt’s 14.1% is excellent for any age and is 13^th in the league currently. While Belt’s .352 is good, it’s only 64^th best in the league and with that walk rate, you’d expect more like the .394. This number should actually be quite a bit better and I expect it will be. Belt’s walk rate has climbed from 7.7% in 2014 to 10.1% and 15.9% the past two season, respectively, while his batting average shot up from .243 in 2014 to .280 and .275.  Right now, his batting average is .244 and his BABIP is about 50 points off his career average.  There’s a lot of indicators that suggest Belt’s OBP should settle in the .370-.380 area before the season is over. That more than makes up for six rounds at the backend of the draft. It’s hard to tell if the power is here to stay, but he was expected to have 25-HR power as a prospect, so this very well could be the new norm. 

In terms of the fairness of this deal, however, you have to consider Bell’s profile as a potentially better player than Belt in the near future. The 10.8 BB%, .253 BABIP, and minor league batting averages suggest he could easily outperform the fine production thus far this season. At five years younger and with advanced on-base skills, Bell is a potential keeper if he maintains OF eligibility. He’d be a fringy one based on current production, but if makes further improvements it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine him developing into a top-84 type. Most likely he loses OF eligibility next year and has to compete for positioning among a growing list of 1B-only sluggers, but there’s hope for much more.

Anyhow, now that I actually am looking at it correctly, the trade makes sense for Shannon as Belt is very good bet to improve his already very good OBP and contribute across the board. That’s good value for six rounds. However, Bell has surprised and if he continues to adjust as big league pitchers adjust to him, Jeff could get much more out of this deal than a handful of rounds. 

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6/30

Brokeback receives:

Homer Bailey Cin - P

Round 13

Round 15

Montezumas receives:

Dinelson Lamet SD - P

Round 14 (traded from Anal Hershiser)

Round 16

Lamet is easy to fall in love with, but difficult to formally commit to. His blowout are terrible and his good outings are remarkable. You can try to play him only at home or against bad hitting teams, but the truth is you just don’t know when he’s going to have it and when he is not. The underlying numbers show a remarkable ability to miss bats and confuse hitters (12.1 K/9, 13.5 SwStr%) and quite a bit of bad luck (5.93 era vs. 4.01 xFIP).  However, his splits are ridiculous (.299/.365/.682 and 9.00 ERA vs. L, .135/.220/.297 2.70 ERA vs. R) and will be impossible to look past if they don’t start to improve.  In the meantime, as intriguing of a talent as he is, it’s almost more pain than he’s worth to start him and cross your fingers. That said, the two round giveup doesn’t represent much risk for the potential reward of his emergence. And for Watson, it’s just keeping the machine going.

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6/27

Brokeback receives:

Josh Tomlin Cle - P

Round 12

Angry receives:

Dylan Bundy Bal - P

Round 16 (traded from Sexual Napalm)

Though I previously noted Bundy’s downturn, I seriously looked into make a similar offer to Watson. The talent is just too great to ignore. However, I couldn’t get passed the underlying data, the health, and the lack of durability. Bundy has only made two starts since the trade went through and they weren’t pretty – 11 ER in 9 IP. The Ks come in bunches, but the overall numbers there are underwhelming at only 7 per 9. His ERA has climbed over 4 and his xFIP is over 5, even with a favorable BABIP.  He’s one of those guys that will probably be rostered until he’s injured or shutdown, but is likely to cause more heartache than he’s worth. Nice job by Watson to continue to churning through his roster with the FA additions. Since the somewhat regrettable return on CMart and Lester, he’s been putting on a rebuilding clinic while keeping his most valuable parts.

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6/22

Brokeback receives:

Albert Pujols LAA - 1B

Daniel Norris Det - P DL

Round 13

KOG receives:

José Ureña Mia - P

Archie Bradley Ari - P

Round 17

Urena seems to be one of those guys who just manages to pitch around his flaws. Despite a rather low ground ball rate, he’s managed to limit real blowouts most of the season. There’s enough to like to keep him rostered when things are going well – especially if you’ve been trying to manage the ups and downs of life with Daniel Norris. But he’s not part of a rotation of a championship team ultimately. The .255 BABIP and massive difference between his ERA and xFIP (3.50 vs. 5.50 at the time), along with the spotty control (3.3 BB/9) and poor HR rate (11.9% HR/FB) means much of this surface level stats are a mirage. Bradley is a very good RP worth at least a couple rounds though, so not all is lost. The investment wasn’t huge at four rounds, but it’s noteworthy that the emergence of all the 1B power and four-category producers has turned the once mighty Pujols waiver wire fodder.

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6/21

Brokeback receives:

Dylan Bundy Bal - P

Round 13

LOC receives:

Seth Lugo NYM - P

Round 16 (traded from Livin' on a Correa)

While it appeared Bundy was the better SP on the surface, he’s been trending downward all season and most peripherals show he’s been outperforming the talent he’s displaying. So it’s hard to fault Chad for recognizing that and moving on. However, as Watson eventually showed, there’s a market for SP with shiny names and decent surface stats. He eventually dealt Bundy for four rounds, turning his initial investment of a simple transaction for Lugo into a seven round upgrade. While Lugo has been a pretty decent addition as a back of the rotation type (4 for 7 in QS), it was a bit of a missed opportunity by not posting Bundy or offering him around. The SP market is that crazy.

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6/20

Brokeback receives

J.C. Ramírez LAA - P

Round 14

Montezumas receives:

Trevor Rosenthal StL - P

Round 15

Ahh the first of the trades where the hyperactive owners pay for their sins. Instead of picking up a comparable RP, it made more sense to deal a pick for one given the transaction limit. Rosenthal is good with the Ks, but rates can be difficult and S+H sporadic. Probably worth a pick though and certainly worth it for Watson to upgrade all picks when possible. 

Week 14 Real Rankings

NOTES:

The first two thirds of the season are in the books and it has been a most unusual 14 weeks. First place in the actual standings seems to change on a weekly basis and there are currently 5 teams within 10 games of first place with 70 "games" left.  Then there's another of tier of four teams in 15-18 range and five teams more than 25 games out.

Despite the clear tiers the Real Rankings paint a different picture, with three teams at least 5 spots away from their Actual Standing, working out positively for Cowhide and Angry but not so much for Ring.

Meanwhile, though there are five teams far away, only two have really started to sell off. Jason is in a holding pattern as he tries to build momentum before open trading starts, Brian seems intent on only trading small pieces slowly, and Dan still fighting the good fight.  Open trading starts in three weeks.

The transaction watch has become less of an issue for less teams. Currently, LOC only has 10 pickups left, while Montezumas isn't far behind. Stroman is also on pace to exceed, but every other team is projected to stay below the 60-move limit.

The top 30 moves of the first two-thirds (thoroughly unscientific, so apologies if I missed something - feel free to comment):

1. Moose – Drafting Aaron Judge in the 19th round
2. LOC – Drafting Cody Bellinger in the 19th round
3. Donkey – Picking up Alex Wood on April 20th
4. LOC – Trading AJ Pollock, 11th rounder for Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, 19th rounder
5. LOC – Trading 7th rounder, 9th rounder, Moncada for Carlos Correa, Stephen Strasburg, 22nd rounder, 24th rounder (offeseason)
6. KOG – Drafting Luis Severino in the 20th round
7. Anal – Picking up Michael Conforto on April 17
8. Stroman – Picking up Travis Shaw on March 29th
9. Thor – Trading 9th rounder for Andrew Benintendi, 12th rounder (offseason)
10. Angry – Trading AJ Pollock, 13th rounder for Chris Sale, Christian Yelich, 18th rounder (offseason)
11. Angry – Drafting Jose Ramirez in the 11th
12. Ring – Drafting Jonathan Schoop in the 15th
13. Cowhide - Drafting Domingo Santana in the 18th
14. Donkey – Trading for/keeping/not giving up on Andrew McCutcheon (offseason)
15. Anal – Picking up Avisail Garcia and Jimmy Nelson on April 10th
16. One Nut – Picking up Corey Dickerson on April 1st
17. Ring – Drafting Brett Gardner in the 21st round
18. Thor – Picking up Mark Reynolds on April 6th
19. Montezumas – Drafting Jose Berrios in the 21st round
20. LOC – Drafting Marcell Ozuna in the 10th
21. Thors – Drafting Gio Gonzalez in the 16th
22. Thors – Drafting Ervin Santana in the 15th
23. Ring – Picking up Jason Vargas on April 14th
24.   Montezumas – Drafting Mike Moustakas in the 16th
25. Angry – Picking up Zach Godley on May 10
26.   Anal – Traded Trevor Bauer for Justin Smoak on May 30th
27. Thor – Drafting Jake Lamb in the 8th
28. Donkey – Drafting Eric Thames in the 11th
29. Donkey – Drafting Robbie Ray in the 11th

30.   Cowhide – Picking up Chase Anderson on May 29th

Trade reviews are coming. Please pay if you have not yet (thank Jeff!)

Reminder that this week's stats combine with next week for week 15.

We've got no box scores for four long, horrible days. Let's get the trades going!

Week 13 Real Rankings

NOTES

We have a new #1 and, frankly, it’s about time.  Donkey has been the best team in the league for at least a month and it hasn't been close really, but it’s taken a while for that to be reflected in the Overall Real Ranking.  It is very clear when you look at the Real Rankings  average over the past month though:

1	Donkey Punchers	4.15
2	Livin' on a Correa	5.63
2	Montezuma's Revenge	5.63
4	Ring of Fire	6.10
5	The Angry Pirates	6.78
6	Thor's Hammered	6.85
7	Sexual Napalm	6.95
8	Cowhide Joyride	7.00
9	Keep Off Groin	7.40
10	Anal Hershiser	7.93
11	Stroman my Cobb Odor	8.30
12	Moose is Loose!	8.55
13	Brokeback Moundmen	8.98
14	One Nut Wonders	9.10

Pitching has been Shannon’s forte (he’s got a two point lead over second place in the last four), but he’s been no slouch in hitting (second place over the last four). Even just anecdotally looking at the rosters and it’s pretty evident: The Donkey Punchers are the team to beat.

However, the Actual Standings – the ones that really matter in the end – say a few different things. Namely that Kyle and the Angry Pirates has gotten pretty gosh darn cotton-picking lucky, Dave and the Joyride are outperforming their actual production, and Dagan, Shomphe and myself are getting a little screwed. But it’s fluid and we’re approaching the all important two-thirds mark.  After this week, there’s 7 more to go:  three weeks until open trading, two weeks of open trading, and two weeks of no trading before the playoffs.  What happens in the third trimester dictates not only how this season will go, but often next season (see Shannon).

Soooo… who exactly is actually trading? Judging by performance over the last four weeks, the right four teams who have declared to be selling are the ones who should be selling, but it’s still trudging along pretty slow. Stroman just made his first big deal, and Brokeback continues to acquire and deal more parts.  Moose and One Nut declared themselves open for business weeks ago, but Moose traded Alex Cobb and nothing else and Jason has been sitting tight and trying to convince everyone his team is full of keepers.   

Part of the problem is it has been so difficult to get reliable pitching. Teams understandably want top dollar for guys like Hamels, Tanaka, Verlander, and Price, who they either committed high picks to or kept outright --- however, those four also have an average overall ranking of 513th!  Then there’s a whole lot of guys in the middle whose name (Gray, Estrada, Ryu, Hammel, Roark, Liriano, Moore, Wheeler) looks a lot better than their production.  Below are the Yahoo rankings of the SPs available for trade from teams who are selling:

  

The problem is it creates no rush to trade them and no rush to acquire them. It often makes more sense to trade or pick up a flier for cheap and not have to pay for the name value.  This is where deeper analysis can pay off big.  I can’t tell if the conversations are not being had or if they’re just not going anywhere, but one side will budge eventually. 

One thing changing the fantasy landscape is young kids. Just think that the following guys – all top 100 players over the past 30 days – were afterthoughts at this point last year and could’ve been easily acquired or picked up for nothing:  Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Michael Taylor, Jonathan Schoop, Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, Keon Broxton, Trey Mancini, Domingo Santana, Jake Faria, Zack Godley.  Meanwhile, guys like Joey Gallo, Jose Berrios, Luis Severino, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Justin Bour, Bradley Zimmer were either late draft picks or FA pickups and could very well turn into keepers. Often, the best teams are the ones who play Rookie Roulette the best.

I’ll get to trade reviews this week hopefully.

Thank you to Mr. Watson for your donation. Still need money from Brian, Jeff, Justin, Dan ($115), Dave, Gibby, Shomphe, Kyle ($130), and Dagan.